1. A Forensic Framework and DSS for
Food System Resilience and
Sustainability Analysis
Prince Agyemang, Ebenezer Kwofie, Marie-Anne Dessureault, John M. Ulimwengu
2. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Present State of the African Food System
Source:Welthungerhlife & World Economic Forum
20% of people in Africa face chronic hunger
DR Congo
15.6 to 21.8 million
Zimbabwe
3.6 to 6 million
Southern Africa
Burkina Faso, Niger
and Mali, 3.2 to 12.7
million
Source: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Central Africa
Sudan
7 to 9.6 million
East Africa
West Africa
2019-2020
Increase
in
number
of
people
facing
food
crises
3. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Key DRIVERS
Shocks and Stressors affecting Africa
food system
(2022)
( Each year
since 2015)
( Each year
since 2019
( 2008-2018 is Sub-Saharan and North Africa)
4. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
How do we measure these
shocks and stressors?
How do we assess the resilience
of food systems?
How do we assess the
sustainability of food systems?
Climate change Globalization & Trade
Income growth and
distribution
Politics and
Governance
Food Supply Chain
Food production
Storage and
distribution
Processing
Food Environments
Availability
Affordability
Product
properties
Diets
Socioeconomic factors
Individual
Factors
Economic
Situation
Cognitive
Is there a causal relationship
between resilience and a
sustainable food system?
5. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Casual relationship between resilience and sustainable food systems
neglected?
3
No commonly agreed-upon domains for measuring the food systems’
resilience and sustainability?
2
There is a proliferation in resilience and sustainability indicators
1
Key Challenges in the food system
sustainability and resilience
measurement
6. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Methodological Framework
Step 1:
Resilience and
sustainability
framework identification
Step 2:
Domain and indicator
identification and
characterization
Step 3:
Forensic Framework
development
Step 4:
Case Study
application
Step 5:
Scenario construction
(Continental and
regional level)
Step 6:
Development of a novel
Decision Support
System (FS-ROAS)
7. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Domains and Indicators translation
Household
Fuzzy entropy approach
Politics and
Governance
Food Security
and nutrition
Socioeconomic
Environment
District Regional
Global
Rural or
Urban
Indicators
Domains identified
from literature
Step 2
9. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
What and Why did it happen?
A weak negative correlation of between
0.19 and 0.76 is observed between cereal
supply
A negative correlation in the range of
0.33 to 0.62 exists between milk supply
and the selected indicators
Establish the relationship between
product, supply, loss, and other relevant
indicators
A strong positive correlation between
the selected indicators and driving
forces.
10. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Production increase by 15% by 2030.
Reduce food loss by 25%
Increase agriculture credit by 9-12%
Stable Scenario 1: Increased agricultural production
Increase food supply by ~12% and reduce
loss by ~10-15%.
Increase in support from international
donors (19-20 %)
Increase agriculture credit by 15-18%
Stable Scenario 2: Increased agricultural credit
What could/will happen?
Step 4
11. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
326.1 million people become undernourished
(71.5 million more than 2020 levels).
103.2 million people become obese.
167.5 million people become anemic.
Snapshots of unfolding futures at the Continental level
Increased Ag. Production
11.7 million fewer people are undernourished (9.4%
decrease).
15.5 million more obese people than BAU
80.2% increase in the number who become anemic
Increased Ag. Credit
23 million fewer people are undernourished
(9.4% decrease).
7.3 million more obese people than BAU
7.5% reduction in the number who are anemic
BAU
BAU = business-as-usual;
S1 = scenario 1; S2 = scenario 2.
Step 5
12. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Snapshots of unfolding futures at the Continental level
Rise in surface temperature to 1.44 ℃ (18%
above the 2020 levels).
59.6% increase in food price index
Increased Ag. Production
Rise in surface temperature to 1.62℃ (25%
above 2020 levels)
1.1% marginal decrease in food price inflation
below the 2020 levels.
BAU
BAU = business-as-usual;
S1 = scenario 1;
S2 = scenario 2.
Increased Ag. Credit
Rise in surface temperature to 1.68℃ (27.8%
above the 2020 levels)
~17% increase in food price inflation above the
2020 levels.
13. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Snapshots of unfolding futures at the sub-regional level
Increased Ag. Production
7.61 million fewer people are undernourished
in Central Africa(~17% below 2020 levels).
6.05 million more obese people in Southern
Africa
11% increase in emissions from agrifood
systems in Central and East African regions.
Increased Ag. Credit
7.5 million fewer people are undernourished in
Central Africa (17.5% below 2020 levels).
8.9 million more obese people in West Africa
(35.8% above the 2020 levels)
11.4% increase in emissions from the agrifood in
East Africa
BAU = business-as-usual;
S1 = scenario 1; S2 = scenario 2.
16. #2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR
Key takeaways and implications for
Post-Malabo Agenda
Provide a tool for exploration and
trade-off for different outcomes at
the national and regional level
The tool relies on the accuracy of
the data.
Positioning and making the
tool useful post-Malabo
Agenda
The need to revise and design better
strategies to collect accurate data.
Potential to adapt the tool for
a national level assessment