are-there-coincidences-in-intel-war

1. Are there coincidences in int war ?????
Agha h Amin
05 October, 2009
KAMDESH AMBUSH-8 US TROOPS LOST
If I was an insurgent group commander I would
have done the logistics for the attack as following :---

2. IN SEPTEMBER 2009 I had plotted Taliban groups on
my blog as following and the area where the attack
took place was one of them.

6. It was 2004 when I visited this valley for sake of
curiousity.
My Nuristani friends insisted not to go beyond one
point which was about 5 or 6 km from the site of the
ambush.

7. My assessment of the ambush which I also gave to
Nafeesa Hoodhbhoy from VOICE OF AMERICA RADIO
on 04 October 2009
1-Nuristans thick forests have a very special
monster.The locals talk about it in subdued voices
even in the safety of their houses.They say its a very
dangerous group.This may all be hearsay.
2-However the area is known to be one of the most
inaccessible in Eastern Afghanistan.
3-The work is :--
That of a state actor with possibly regular troops
disguised as irregulars.Logistically the area can be
supported in priority from Chitral in Pakistan.Second
best would be Tajikistan via Badakhshan with
dumping done two or three months in advance.GRU
trained Uzbeks or irregular trained by any state actor
or major non state actor based in Pakistan cannot be
ruled out.

8. The Americans have been attacked in Nuristan in
2004,2005 ,2006,2008 and now.Every time with a
special ferocity.
The attack was aimed at US public opinion and
specifically aimed at causing maximum attrition
designed to discourage the idea of pumping in more
troops.Again a sign of a state actor.
Posted by Agha H Amin at 1:39 PM
Labels: Afghanistan, BEHIND THE
SCENES, Constitution making, KAMDESH ATTACK-8
US TROOPS KILLED-AFGHANISTAN, LOW INTENSITY
WAR,Pakistan, Pakistan Army, Petraeus will bring
USA to grief in Afghanistan
Before NATO raid on Pakistani army post on Salala in
Nov 2011 a strange incident occurred?

9. An officer on that post , 3 days before Salala attack
was recommended for a Pakistani gallantry award
?????
The same officer , a major gets killed in the Salala
Raid ?????
We maintain in our analysis that main issue are state
actors or proxies of state actors ?????

11. The threat where it exists is in four scenarios:--
1. Pakistani states resolve to use Afghan Taliban to
capture whole Afghanistan and to enforce their
extremist and narrow ethnic agenda on non
Pashtuns and moderate Pashtuns.This would lead to
a new civil war where extremists in Afghanistan will
go more powerful and regional rivalry and threat of
nuclear war may increase.This threat is state
centered and not non state actor centered.This is
likely to happen unless the US and world powers
take adequate countermeasures to safeguard
Afghanistans northern minority and impose a South
Korea style division with international forces
permanently stationed in Afghanistan.This would

12. restrain and check Pakistani ambitions also and be a
permanent observation post for monitoring terrorist
or extremist elemements in the region.
2. A nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India as
population increases and water resources
decrease.Here Pakistani militarys support and
patronization of militant groups like Lashkar e
Tayyaba and possibly Maoists may at at some stage
be a serious possibility.This is a possibility which
may occur in the next ten years .The onus of
remedying this lies with both India and Pakistan and
with all great powers including USA ,Russia,China
etc.

13. 3. Pakistans gradual instability because of ethnic
insurgency in Balochistan , ethnic tension in Sindh
and Karachi , water issue with India , growing
poverty and unemployment , power shortages , can
seriously weaken the Pakistani state and also
reduce the military effectiveness and military virtue
of Pakistans military.This can ultimately lead to a
scenario where the state breaks down and nuclear
weapons can go into wrong hands.This is a long term
possibility but not an immediate threat.The onus
here lies not only on Pakistan but on USA and other
world powers and financial donor institutions to
ensure that Pakstan does not collapse.

14. 4. A military coup in the army where an Islamist
radical officer clique seizes power.This is difficult to
occur but then coups can never be predicted.This is
the most dangerous scenario.

15. AND NATO ATTACKS SALALA IN NOVEMBER 2011
?????

16. Now see the data in chronological sequence :----
PAKISTANIS SEE IT AS JOB OF Afghan Intelligence
NDS

17. This article alleges that Afghan Intelligence is anti
Pashtun
Afghanistan: ethnicisation of intelligence
Corruption and illegal use of power, nepotism,
regionalism, ethnicity and sectarianism within the
ranks of the ANA have divided the loyalties of ANA
officers. Such accusations have also harmed the
reputation of ANA officers
 Musa Khan Jalalzai
 March 08, 2014
 Be First To Comment

18. In February 2014, the killing of 21 Afghan soldiers in
Kunar province triggered the anger of an Afghan
National Army (ANA) general who never expected
the ethnicisation of Afghan military intelligence,
which spies on ethnic Pashtun generals, officers,
soldiers and their families, in and outside military
barracks. In 2013, the Afghan defence ministry once
warned Pashtun officers and soldiers that they would
lose their jobs if they did not shift their families from
Pakistan to Afghanistan. The Afghan defence
minister had received reports that Afghans living in
Pakistan work for the ISI and other intelligence
agencies. This warning further caused mistrust
between Pashtun and non-Pashtun officers. Pashtun
military officers complain that the Afghan
intelligence is spying on an ethnic basis within the
army and police force, which has caused alienation,
frustration and suspicion.
The killing of 21 officers was termed an intelligence
failure by the defence ministry of Afghanistan, which
fired some military commanders including regional
intelligence chiefs. Daily Outlook reported the
biggest backlash of the Afghan media where
President Hamid Karzai’s policies towards the
Taliban were harshly criticised. Interestingly, the

19. president did not attend the funeral of the soldiers
but cancelled his visit to Sri Lanka. There were
speculations within the Afghan parliament and
defence ministry that, because of their ethnicity, the
president did not consider it necessary to attend the
funeral of the murdered soldiers.
In the last four decades, ethnic rivalries between the
central government and local ethnic groups have
been reported in the Afghan press time and again.
After the Soviet withdrawal and the fall of the Dr
Najibullah’s government, the Afghan army and its
intelligence infrastructure collapsed and a new
realignment of ethnic and sectarian actors emerged
with their criminal militias. They established their
own ethnic intelligence units to gather information
about their rivals’ military activities. Their
intelligence units were influenced by the intelligence
agencies of neighbouring states to further their
national interests in Afghanistan. The ISI is also
trying to influence the Afghan army and its
intelligence wing.
The fragmentation of millions of Pashtuns in
Afghanistan and Pakistan has been a key factor in
the crisis. Perceiving them as a formidable ethnic
group, the ISI and Saudi intelligence agencies have
often tried to keep them divided. Afghanistan has
never been able to support Pashtuns in Pakistan but
the country remains the cradle of Pashtun pride. In

20. addition to ISI and Saudi intelligence designs, Iran
pursues a policy of its own, shaped by its national
security interests. In reality, all Afghan neighbours
are busy provoking ethnic and sectarian groups to
strengthen their position in the country. Pakistan
wants to maintain its influence in Afghanistan and
also try to stabilise the country to secure its own
territory but, unfortunately, Afghanistan has been in
trouble due to its complicated ethnic politics that
are decades old.
The sad incident in Kunar province is considered an
intelligence failure. The Kunar province is mostly
controlled by Taliban forces where Afghan
intelligence has no access to collect intelligence
information about the dissidents. Speaking at the
funeral ceremony, Defence Minister Maulana
Bismillah Khan Muhammadi criticised the
controversial role of the Taliban, ISI and his own
country’s military intelligence.
Maulana Muhammadi regretted the failed and non-
professional strategies of his country’s civil and
military intelligence agencies, and the ethnic
tendencies of his military commanders who
intentionally or unintentionally allowed Taliban
fighters to safely enter the fort and kill soldiers, not
officers. We have often been told that corruption and
illegal use of power, nepotism, regionalism, ethnicity
and sectarianism within the ranks of the ANA have

21. divided the loyalties of ANA officers. Such
accusations have also harmed the reputation of ANA
officers. There is no check and balance in the armed
forces. This recent incident is an eye opener to put
into practice the laws responsible for keeping a
proper check and balance on the top tier of the
police and national army.
There is also mistrust between the government and
its intelligence agencies as the Taliban have
intensified their efforts to inflict more harm on the
ANA and the police by taking them hostage in large
numbers. The recent investigation of the Afghan
defence ministry proved that intelligence has failed
to counter Taliban infiltration into the ranks of the
armed forces. The main reason behind all these
incidents is the ethnic role of the Afghan intelligence
agencies and their targeting of Pashtun military
officers. Since 2001, non-Pashtuns continue to target
Pashtun officers in state institutions. These policies
have mostly alienated the whole Pashtun population
from the state. Pashtun officers are leaving the
armed forces and joining the Taliban forces in the
thousands every year. The army is dominated by
mafia groups who use it against ethnic Pashtuns in
the western and eastern parts of the country.
The ANA is shrinking by the day, as the west
prepares to leave the country to its own devices.
Having broken the system that was in place, the US

22. and NATO are now leaving Afghanistan to face
Taliban elements, criminal warlords and private
militias, which disrupt any efforts to pull the nation
together. Yet the ANA arose under foreign tutelage
and will remain dependent upon foreign support for
the foreseeable future. Thus it can only be seen by
the majority of Afghans as a legacy of the
occupation and not a ‘national’ institution. The
current state of the ANA, Taliban infiltration,
intelligence failures, the ‘intelligence war’ among
various nations and alliances (NATO, US, UK, ISAF),
green-on-blue attacks and the rise of war criminals
heading private militias present the biggest
challenge to the reorganisation of state institutions.
On a post CSIO on this site assessed :---
http://csi-ops.blogspot.com/2014/02/proxy-war-in-
afghanistan.html
Tweets
1. Retweeted by Sami Yousafzai
Bashir Ahmad Gwakh @bashirgwakh 47m

23. #Afghanistan MT @bsarwary: #Kabul: Coffins of 21
ANA soldiers killed in Kunar
pic.twitter.com/yl3REsNzO7

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26. 3.
TALIBAN DECAPITATION TACTICS AGAINST
PAKISTANI PARA MILITARY FORCES AS PSY WAR-
HEAD OF PAKISTANI PARA MILITARY DECAPITATED
IN LAST KILLINGS OF 23 PAKISTANI PARA
MILITARY IN FATA ON 15 FEB 2014
A SENIOR PAKISTANI SECURITY OFFICIAL
DESCRIBED IT AS TACTICS TAUGHT TO TTP BY
NATO CIVILIAN DEFENCE CONTRACTORS IN
AFGHANISTAN INVOLVED IN VARIOUS
INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT CONTRACTS