The document provides a quarterly situation report for Pakistan's North Zone (KP, FATA, GB, AJK) from March 2016. Some key points: 1. The first quarter saw continued political stability but a rise in militant attacks, especially using IEDs. Militant group Jamaat-ul-Ahrar emerged as the lead group claiming attacks. 2. 538 people were killed in militant violence, including 2 US consulate staff. 7 FDA staff remain missing after being abducted. 3. Operations against militants continued in FATA but extremism is spreading, with attacks now reaching other parts of Pakistan. Extortion has also become a major problem in KP.

1. XYZ PAKISTAN MONTHLY SITUATOIN REPORT MARCH 2016 – QUARTERLY REVIEW
NORTH ZONE (KP, FATA, GB, AJK)
INTERNAL DOCUMENTS – EXTERNAL SHARING NOT AUTHORISED
Page1
A. OVERVIEW
1. The 1
st
Quarter of 2016 was marked with continued political and macro-economical stability, as the country
inches on gradual development over multiple agreements of global significance in a range of sectors topped
by energy, defence and trade.
2. An overall decrease in anti-state
insurgency since 2009-10 was
observed especially in FATA, Khyber
Pukhtoonkhwa and Balochistan
Provinces. However, a dramatic rise
in civilian casualties and continuity in
militant-attacks was observed in the
1
st
Quarter 2016. Remote-Controlled-
IEDs were used as major a “tactic” in
KP/FATA/GB & AJK (Pak North Zone)
while critical attacks hit varying
targets (generally softer ones) since
Dec 2015 onwards.
3. Numerous indicators do perceivably
suggest new hierarchy amongst
militant nexus, new agenda, more aggressive tactics, and hence, ample funding. Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa (KP)
witnessed more violent incidents during Jan-Mar 2016 than the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) –
stretched along the Pak-Afghan Boarder) for a basic reason of intensive military presence in the later region.
4. Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JA) emerges as the lead militant group amongst TTP’s factions in claiming the most critical
attacks in the recent times. JA has been expanding its violent attacks to other parts of the country beyond
KP/FATA i.e. +70 civilians were killed and around 300 injured – mostly Christians –in a high-intensity bomb-
attack on a public park in the Punjab’s provincial capital Lahore.
5. In general, it is perceived that the INGOs/NGOs’ staff in Pak North Zone mainly confronts rising threat of
“collateral damage” and crime in the foreseeable future.
6. MOI has started granting fresh MOUs to NGOs under the new regulations so far. An initial batch of 25
fortunate NGOs includes XYZ.
7. On the other hand, Military led operations in FATA have entered final phases with claimed further success in
North Waziristan Agency’s Shawal Valley amid fresh displacement from Tehsil Ghulam Khan (along the Pak-
Afghan Border). About +1200 families are expected to be dislocated from this area in near future, while +200
families of TDPs have be re-located in Bannu already last week.
8. Interdepartmental security coordination has stimulated apparently effective counterterrorism joint operations
by intelligence units and law enforcing agencies across KP/FATA and elsewhere nationwide. A number of key
militants have been arrested in such operations including a militant commander involved highly lethal attacks

2. XYZ PAKISTAN MONTHLY SITUATOIN REPORT MARCH 2016 – QUARTERLY REVIEW
NORTH ZONE (KP, FATA, GB, AJK)
INTERNAL DOCUMENTS – EXTERNAL SHARING NOT AUTHORISED
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on INGOs in Mansehra District. Expanded multi-prong counter-operations are considered part of the National
Action Plan (National Counterterrorism Strategy).
B. Analysis
1. Violent incidents in the first quarter of 2016 caused at least 538 aggregate casualties (including 2 national staff
members of US-Consulate Peshawar, killed in a direct Roadside Remote-Controlled IED Attack on 1
st
March, in
Mohmand Agency, FATA during an Anti-Narcotics Drive), while whereabouts of seven (7) national staffers of
FATA Development Authority (FDA) remains unknown. They were abducted in Wana Tehsil of South
Waziristan Agency, FATA on 10
th
March, 2016. Significant incidents are listed on last pages of the SITREP.
2. Jama’at-ul-Ahrar (JA) has announced launching a full-pledge war against the “un-Islamic democracy” in
Pakistan while terming all the modern educational institutions nationwide as core sources of providing
manpower and intellect that ‘strengthens un-Islamic democratic system’ and ‘un-Islamic legislations’. Ref. A
video message released by JA claiming the attack on Bach Khan University Campus Charsadda, Peshawar
Division in Dec 2015;
3. Continued execution of the convicted militants, execution of Mumtaz Qadri on 29
th
Feb (who killed Punjab’s
Governor Salman Taseer), and stepped-up military action in FATA are often quoted by TTP and its splinter
groups as pretext of the attacks launched recently against targets including pro-state peace committees in
KP/FATA, as KP witnessed more militancy related incidents than FATA;
4. Most of militant-attacks were directed primarily against the Pak Armed Forces (mainly IED-Attacks and Target
Killing) besides members of Shia community in FATA and urban limits of Peshawar – with the pretext of Syrian
context for the first time;
5. Life in the Twin Cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi was paralysed due to at least a week long post-Mumtaq
Qadri protest demos 1
st
March onwards until imminent Friday. Cellular communication in the Twin Cities was
suspended and Red Zone Cordoned-off meanwhile. The same situation was observed again 27
th
March
onwards for 4 days due to violent protests emanating from Rawalpindi and ending up in shape of a sit-in in
front of the Parliament House, which concluded upon assurance of the Federal Government Officials
associated with preserving the Blasphemy Laws (Tahaffuz-e-Namoos-e-Risaalat Act).
6. The federal Ministry of Interior
reportedly denied “organised” presence
of “Daesh (ISIS)” in Pakistan in repeated
press briefings. Senior intelligence
officials have emphasised on integrated
counterterrorism operations and
effective de-radicalization campaign
fearing violence inspired by “Daesh”
through local militant groups;
7. Credible information suggests 150
“reported” and 200 “un-reported” cases
for extortion related complaints in
Peshawar in March only. Extortion has
surfaced as a chronic problem in central
KP and causing very serious public
concerns. Recent killing of the president
of a Trade Union in Peshawar city is a
latest example, as traders continue to protest randomly against the incident;
8. Latest developments for strengthening law & order in KP suggest possible deployment of Rangers in near
future with reference to a written request by the Chief Minister of KP to the Federal Minister for Interior, also
quoting rise and persistency in extortion related issues emanating primarily from FATA – where the KP
Government has no control being under federal jurisdiction – through Governor-KP.

3. XYZ PAKISTAN MONTHLY SITUATOIN REPORT MARCH 2016 – QUARTERLY REVIEW
NORTH ZONE (KP, FATA, GB, AJK)
INTERNAL DOCUMENTS – EXTERNAL SHARING NOT AUTHORISED
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C. Humanitarian Space
1. There was no reported case of hostility directed against any NGO/INGO in the reporting period except crime
and administrative issues related to MOUs and “non-conformity act” i.e. offices of INGOs sealed in residential
areas.
2. A direct attack on national staff of US-Consulate Peshawar during an anti-narcotics drive in FATA (Mohmand
Agency) was noticed as a major incident involving a foreign governmental entity
3. Areas of XYZ Operations pose a number of generic threats besides medium/high level specific concerns about
potential criminal/militant abduction, collateral damage (‘wrong place, wrong time’ phenomenon) and higher
threat of road hazards respectively.
D. ISLAMABAD & RAWALPINDI REGION;
1. Incidents of organised crime (robberies), street crimes, and road accidents reportedly affected INGOs/UN’s
staff (national/international);
2. An Ex-Governor of Afghanistan was abducted by an unidentified group of offenders from sector F-7 in broad
daylight. He was later recovered in safe condition following an encounter in Swabi area of KP (bordering
Islamabad/Rawalpindi) resulting in killing of one offender shot in cross-firing with police, on 25
th
February. No
group had claimed the abduction. Further details remain unknown, while implications of some “personal
dispute” cannot be ruled out though.

4. XYZ PAKISTAN MONTHLY SITUATOIN REPORT MARCH 2016 – QUARTERLY REVIEW
NORTH ZONE (KP, FATA, GB, AJK)
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3. Environment in the Twin cities was almost paralysed twice due to violent protest demonstrations led by
religious groups in context with the execution of Mumtaz Qadri and preservation of the Blasphemy Law.
E. MAJOR CHALLENGES AHEAD;
1. XYZ project in SWA amid limited resources;
2. XYZ programming in Khyber Agency;
3. Maintaining office in Peshawar amid high risk of collateral damage and organised crime;
F. FORESIGHT & DEVELOPING SITUATIONS
1. Improvement of security in / around Peshawar Division (being the Provincial Capital) and southern districts of
KP (Kohat onwards until Dera Ismael Khan) will be a bigger challenge in near future for the Government.
2. Energy crisis; spontaneous protest demonstrations against electricity outages and subsequent issues topped
with shortage of potable water especially in the urban areas may cause temporary access issues;
3. Blasphemy related issues; any abrupt changes in the respective law or amnesty granted to those convicted
under this law has the potential to stimulate politically backed protest demonstrations;
4. Privatization Drive & Potential Unemployment; labour unions and employees of affected government
functionaries may resort to protest demons against the drive.
5. Panama Leak; Respective implications and politically led anti-government protests may most likely stir-up the
macro-political situation in the coming days.
6. Month of Ramazan-ul-Mubarak and Eid Holidays (June-July); potential impact on operations and inter-
agency coordination (associated with reduced working-hours and affect on staff’s health) requires proactive
mitigation – flexible scheduling to avoid otherwise stressed programming.