GeographyReview32_2_Climate.pptx

www.hoddereducation.co.uk/geographyreview
Climate change
Adaptation vs mitigation
David Redfern
Hodder & Stoughton © 2018

Introduction
This presentation supports the following articles in GEOGRAPHY REVIEW Vol. 32, No. 2
• ‘The permafrost carbon feedback: the impact of global warming on Arctic ecosystems’
pages 10–14
• Centrepiece: Earth’s changing climate, pages 20–21
• ‘Adapting to climate change: an agricultural case study from Nepal’, pages 22–26

Definitions
Adaptation The process of adjustment to changes in an environment. In the context of
climate change, it refers to changing our lifestyles to cope with a new environment rather than
trying to stop climate change.
Mitigation Taking action to reduce the severity or intensity of an event. In the context of
climate change it refers to reducing the output of greenhouse gases and/or increasing the size
and amount of greenhouse gas storage sites or sinks.

Adaptation strategies (1)
Resilient
agricultural
systems
High-tech: drought-tolerant species
help resistance to climate change
and disease.
Low-tech: better practices generate
healthier soils and may help
carbon-dioxide sequestration and
water storage: selective irrigation,
mulching, cover crops, crop
rotation, reduced ploughing,
agroforestry.
‘Indoor’ intensive farming could
increase.
Land-use
planning
Soft management: land-use zoning,
building restrictions in vulnerable
floodplains and on low-lying coasts.
Enforcing strict runoff controls and
soakaways.
Assessment
More expensive technology not
available to poor subsistence
farmers without financial aid.
High energy costs from indoor and
intensive farming.
Genetic modification is still subject
to debate but increasingly used to
create resistant strains, e.g. rice
and soya.
Growing food insecurity in many
places adds pressure to find ‘quick
fixes’.
Assessment
Abandoning high-risk areas and
land-use resettling often
unfeasible, e.g. megacities such
as Dhaka, Bangladesh, or Tokyo-
Yokohama, Japan.
A political ‘hot potato’.
Needs strong governance,
enforcement and compensation.

Adaptation strategies (2)
Solar
radiation
management
(SRM)
Geo-engineering involves
deliberately intervening in the
climate system to counteract
global warming.
One proposal is to use orbiting
satellites to reflect some inward
radiation back into space, rather
like a giant sunshade.
This could cool the Earth within
months and be relatively cheap
compared with mitigation.
Assessment:
Untried and untested.
Would reduce but not eliminate
the worst effects of GHGs. For
example, it would not alter
ocean acidification.
Involves tinkering with a
complex system, which might
have unknown consequences.
Would need to continue for
decades or centuries as there
would be a rapid adjustment in
the climate system if SRM
stopped suddenly.
As an indication of the complexity of the topic, some
people regard this as mitigation.

Mitigation strategies: world (1)
Wetland
restoration
Wetlands (salt and freshwater
marshes, floodplains, peatlands,
mangroves) cover up to 9% of the
Earth’s land surface but contain 35% of
the terrestrial carbon store.
Trans-government initiatives such as
the International Convention on
Wetlands (Ramsar) and the European
Union Habitats Directive promote
restoration projects around the world.
In the Canadian prairies over 110,000
hectares are planned for restoration to
their former wetland state.
Assessment
Large amounts of stored
carbon would remain in
the wetlands, and would
increase over time.
Maintaining wetlands
prevents the decay of
carbon stocks by aerobic
respiration – they are
resistant to decay under
anaerobic conditions.

Afforestation The UN’s Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+) scheme offers
incentives to developing countries to
protect their forests. Conservation
and sustainable management are
also crucial (the +).
The EU Forest Strategy also
focuses on sustainable forest
management. This has involved
using satellite technology to map the
forest carbon store.
In April 2016, the EU and Indonesia
signed a Forest Law Enforcement,
Governance and Trade (FLEGT)
licensing scheme. designed to
reduce illegal logging of forests and
promote trade in legally produced
timber.
Assessment
UN-REDD+ is a set of guidelines
on how to report on forest
resources and forest
management strategies and their
results, in terms of reducing
emissions and enhancing removal
of GHGs.
How does itlink to existing
national development strategies?
How can forest communities and
indigenous peoples participate in
the design, implementation,
monitoring and evaluation of
programmes?
How will it be funded, and how
will countries ensure that benefits
are distributed equitably?
How will reduced emissions and
enhanced removals be
monitored?

Changing
agricultural
practices
There are several measures to reduce carbon emissions from
agriculture which target both carbon dioxide and methane.
They include:
• Zero tillage: not ploughing but drilling seed directly into the soil
thereby conserving organic matter in the soil.
• Polyculture: growing annual crops in between trees which helps
protect soils from erosion and stores carbon in the trees.
• Crop residues: leaving residues such as stems and leaves on
the field after harvesting helps protect soils from erosion.
• New strains of plants, e.g. rice, which require less water in the
padi fields, therefore generating less methane.
• Managing manure, e.g. using it in anaerobic digesters to
produce methane which can be used to generate power.

International
agreements
Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol many developed countries agreed to
legally binding reductions in their carbon dioxide emissions although
the USA and Australia refused to sign. Emerging economies, such as
China and India, were exempt.
The aim was to bring about a 5% cut in global GHG emissions from
1990 levels by 2008–2012. Countries such as Japan and most of the
EU were expected to cut emissions by between 6 and 8%.
Negotiations continued after 1997 and although Kyoto came into effect
in 2005, there was ongoing discussion, and differing levels of
compliance.
The Paris Climate Convention (COP21) (2015) ended with an
agreement to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to below 60% of
2010 levels and to restrict global warming to a 2°C increase by 2050.
Countries will set their own voluntary targets and there is no detailed
timetable.
It has been agreed that developed countries will transfer funds and
technologies to help developing countries to achieve their targets.

Cap and trade The Kyoto Protocol introduced the idea that a country which cut its
emissions below the level at which it had been ‘capped’ would be able
to trade the unused volume of emissions. Another country could buy
these theoretical emissions and offset them against emissions above
the agreed level. This would allow it to achieve its target or cap.
The EU introduced a similar cap and trade system in 2005 (EUETS).
Individual businesses, especially energy intensive ones e.g. metal,
cement or refining industries, are able to receive credits if they achieve
lower-than-set emissions, which can then be sold.
The idea of this carbon market is that polluters have to pay while clean
companies are rewarded.

Mitigation strategies: UK (1)
Carbon
taxation
The carbon price floor tax sets a minimum price companies have to pay
to emit CO2. It was unpopular with both industry and environmental
groups and had debateable effect on emissions. In 2015, the policy
was ‘frozen’.
Lower road taxes for low-carbon-emitting cars.
In 2015, oil and gas exploration tax relief was expanded to support
fossil fuels, hence the current debate about fracking.
Renewable
switching
The current relationship between the big energy providers and the
government dictates the amount of switching from fossil fuels to
renewables and nuclear power.
Renewables (solar, wind and wave) provide intermittent electricity,
while fossil fuels and nuclear provide the continuous power essential
for our current infrastructure.
The Climate Change Levy, designed in 2001 to encourage renewable
energy investment and use, was cut in 2015.

Mitigation strategies: UK (2)
Energy
efficiency
The Green Deal scheme encouraged energy-saving improvements to
homes, such as efficient boilers and lighting, and improved insulation. It
was scrapped in 2015.
Energy suppliers must comply with the Energy Company Obligation
scheme to deliver energy-efficient measures (e.g. smart meters) to
householders.
Afforestation Tree planting in the UK is increasing, helping carbon sequestration. It
involves the Forestry Commission, charities such as the National Trust
and the Woodland Trust, landowners and local authorities.
The Big Tree Plant campaign encourages communities to plant 1 million
new trees, mostly in urban areas.
Carbon
capture and
storage (CCS)
Few actual geological CCS projects exist globally, despite its potential.
In 2015, the UK government cancelled its investment in full-scale
projects at gas- and coal-powered plants in Peterhead in Scotland and
Drax in Yorkshire, respectively.

COP 21 Paris outcomes (1)
• A temperature increase of 2ºC is to be avoided, and efforts made to limit the
increase to 1.5ºC.
• GHG emissions will be allowed to rise for now, but sequestration is aimed for later
this century to keep within scientifically determined GHG budgets.
• Emissions targets, known as INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions) will be set by countries separately but they will be reviewed every 5
years and after each review emissions levels will be decreased meaningfully.
• Accurate emissions records will be kept and made available to all other
countries.

COP 21 Paris outcomes (2)
• Wealthy countries will share science and technology relating to low GHG
emissions routes to economic and social development.
• Wealthy countries will make affordable finance available for those poor
nations most affected by anthropogenic climate change.
• Countries that have historically emitted a lot of GHGs (like the UK)will
recognise the ‘loss and damage’ inflicted on poor countries because of
climate change.

Will COP 21 work?
Critics of the COP21 process argue that:
• INDCs allow countries to set their own targets, rather than making them
agree to targets that might achieve the reductions needed to avoid
‘dangerous’ climate change.
• Many of the reductions have already been achieved because the base years
used are in the past.
• The agreement of developing countries is likely to be conditional on a huge
transfer of money, technology and assistance from the developed world to
help them switch to renewables and lower carbon economies. This looks
unlikely.

The concept of ‘negative
emissions’
‘Negative emissions’ means removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, e.g. by
planting trees as ‘carbon sinks’, or storing carbon dioxide underground or in the sea
(carbon capture).
• They are seen as a ‘respectable’ way to delay in emissions reductions.
• In a negative emissions world, far more greenhouse gases would be removed from the
atmosphere per annum than are discharged into it.
• It is therefore acceptable to delay emissions reduction, on the assumption that we will
make up for this in the future.
• Some critics regard the negative emissions concept as a way for national governments
to excuse inaction on climate change.
• Others see it as a useful way for governments to buy time while they lay the ground for
more dramatic technical and policy changes in the future.

Future negative emissions
Options
Option 1 A massive increase in the area of
land planted with vegetation would sequester
a large amount of carbon dioxide (so long as
this green ‘carbon sink’ keeps being
replenished).
Option 2 As renewable energy sources
receive more government support and
scientific focus they could become more
economical than fossil-fuel energy sources.
This would mean that much of the oil, coal
and gas currently targeted for burning would
be left in the ground.
Option 3 New carbon capture and storage
(CCS) technologies would store carbon
dioxide emitted from any remaining energy
sources, such as burning wood chips.
Issues
Option 1 It is estimated that a land area
three times the size of India would need to be
planted with tree, shrub and grass species.
Option 2 Although we already have effective
renewable energy technologies, e.g. solar
panels, large and powerful TNCs continue to
make enormous amounts of money by selling
or utilising fossil fuels. The economies of
entire countries (e.g. Saudi Arabia and the
USA) also rely upon the export or import of
fossil fuels.
Option 3 CCS technologies are still at an
experimental stage. It is unclear whether
breakthroughs will allow enough carbon to be
captured (e.g. from future biomass power
stations) and stored safely underground.

There are some interesting points to consider and discuss
• What are the priorities of adaptation v mitigation?
• How equitable are the proposed solutions? Many of those vulnerable to climate
change have contributed little to GHG emissions
• Does delaying mitigation shift the burden from the present to the future?
• Given that developed countries have passed through their industrial phase of
development without regard for the environment, is it now their duty to assist
developing countries, or will they try to dictate terms in global agreements?
• Is this some form of climate-colonialism?
• What is the will of the world’s leaders regarding climate change?
• Does humankind possess an ability to plan on the global scale?
Discussion points

This resource is part of GEOGRAPHY REVIEW, a magazine written for A-level
students by subject experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go
to: http://www.hoddereducation.co.uk/geographyreview

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