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Company X Scenario Planning project in association with   Oxford Brookes University A Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) The UK’s leading modern university Knowledge Transfer Partnerships link businesses with universities via strategic projects with significant government funding
Thanks for coming!   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is this all about?
KTP, Oxford Brookes and Company X KTP Associate (me!) Company X Oxford Brookes University Technology Strategy Board
About Company X ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Part One: Visualise the Future  Part Two:  Follow the Money!
Our purpose today and tomorrow –  Visualise the Future ,[object Object],[object Object],( Lindgren M. & Bandhold H., 2003)
How? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Think  creatively ‘ Paint ’ scenarios De Bono  E. (1985) Two half days  to build plausible ‘stories’ of the future
Plan for this PM and tomorrow AM – ‘ paint ’ scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Step One of Two ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],First stage. -  Over to You  – ACTION!
Scenario Creation ,[object Object],[object Object]
Scenario Creation ,[object Object]
Scenario Creation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact / Predictability Matrix Unpredictability High Low High Low x x x x x x x x x x x x Schwartz (1998), Lindgren M & Bandhold H, (2003)
Impact / Predictability Matrix Unpredictability High Low High Low A  B  C  D Schwartz (1998), Lindgren M & Bandhold H, (2003) Trends
Step Two – ‘ Join the dots ’  – Paint scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Idea generation…  what about? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bibliography ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Scenario Planning Strategy Creation 1st Meeting

  • 1. Company X Scenario Planning project in association with Oxford Brookes University A Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) The UK’s leading modern university Knowledge Transfer Partnerships link businesses with universities via strategic projects with significant government funding
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. What is this all about?
  • 5. KTP, Oxford Brookes and Company X KTP Associate (me!) Company X Oxford Brookes University Technology Strategy Board
  • 6.
  • 7. Part One: Visualise the Future Part Two: Follow the Money!
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Impact / Predictability Matrix Unpredictability High Low High Low x x x x x x x x x x x x Schwartz (1998), Lindgren M & Bandhold H, (2003)
  • 17. Impact / Predictability Matrix Unpredictability High Low High Low A B C D Schwartz (1998), Lindgren M & Bandhold H, (2003) Trends
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.

Editor's Notes

  1. Thank them and praise them at the beginning
  2. House keeping Fire exits Toilets refreshments
  3. We can do this as you have already identified four new niche areas: The renewables sector Development land referrals Utilities generally Waste management
  4. set a future and work backwards – this approach utilises knowledge of trends not fads or wishes/nightmares! Time horizon is due to lead times and eg costs of exploration for energy futures, etc
  5. The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or to suggest what the preferred future might be they are stories which suggest various possible, even extreme, outcomes.  They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell out some of the opportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform today's decisions .  can be used to judge the risks and opportunities for strategy
  6. - set a future and work backwards – this approach utilises knowledge of trends not fads or wishes/nightmares!
  7. Identify different possible futures by factor A: Rate of Change Rapid or Measured B: Favourable or Unfavourable C: High and increasing Stabilising D: In support of xxxx or in support of yyyy
  8. Identify different possible futures by factor A: Rate of Change Rapid or Measured B: Favourable or Unfavourable C: High and increasing Stabilising D: In support of xxxx or in support of yyyy