Company X Scenario Planning project in association with Oxford Brookes University A Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) The UK’s leading modern university Knowledge Transfer Partnerships link businesses with universities via strategic projects with significant government funding

Thanks for coming! Today should be FUN! The word ‘BUT’ is banned Creative and open minded Opportunity cost

Today should be FUN!

The word ‘BUT’ is banned

Creative and open minded

Opportunity cost

Agenda Monday 13 th October 1pm to 3pm – xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3pm – 5pm – xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Tuesday 14 th October 9.30am – 11.30am – xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 11.30am – 1.30pm - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Monday 13 th October

1pm to 3pm – xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

3pm – 5pm – xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Tuesday 14 th October

9.30am – 11.30am – xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

11.30am – 1.30pm - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What is this all about?

KTP, Oxford Brookes and Company X KTP Associate (me!) Company X Oxford Brookes University Technology Strategy Board

About Company X xxxx is a xxxxxxxxxxxx, who have four parts to their business: Xxxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx ~90% of revenue currently comes from one xxxxxxx client

xxxx is a xxxxxxxxxxxx, who have four parts to their business:

Xxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxx

Xxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxx

~90% of revenue currently comes from one xxxxxxx client

Part One: Visualise the Future Part Two: Follow the Money!

Our purpose today and tomorrow – Visualise the Future Stimulate thought and to spell out some of the opportunities and threats xxxxxx may face in the future Not an attempt to suggest the preferred future ( Lindgren M. & Bandhold H., 2003)

Stimulate thought and to spell out some of the opportunities and threats xxxxxx may face in the future

Not an attempt to suggest the preferred future

How? Not ‘ Out of the box’ but more creatively ‘ Inside the box’ The word ‘ BUT’ is banned! ‘ Paint’ Scenarios Think creatively ‘ Paint ’ scenarios De Bono E. (1985) Two half days to build plausible ‘stories’ of the future

Not ‘ Out of the box’ but more creatively ‘ Inside the box’

The word ‘ BUT’ is banned!

‘ Paint’ Scenarios

Plan for this PM and tomorrow AM – ‘ paint ’ scenarios For each of xxxxxx’s business units Time horizon is 10 years Working ‘ Future Back ’ Think creatively, use a ‘Post-It’ note for each idea and stick it on the wall Use ‘coloured stickies’ to rate them: High impact High unpredictability Build scenarios around main drivers identified Reduce to a few distinct scenarios

For each of xxxxxx’s business units

Time horizon is 10 years

Working ‘ Future Back ’

Think creatively, use a ‘Post-It’ note for each idea and stick it on the wall

Use ‘coloured stickies’ to rate them:

High impact

High unpredictability

Build scenarios around main drivers identified

Reduce to a few distinct scenarios

Step One of Two - Think creatively - this is the FUN bit! For example: What factors are likely to impact on the industry? Who will our customers be? What will our customers want? What will our competitors do? Where is the money?!

- Think creatively -

this is the FUN bit!

For example:

What factors are likely to impact on the industry?

Who will our customers be?

What will our customers want?

What will our competitors do?

Where is the money?!

Grab a ‘Post-It’ note pad Write ANY idea on a pad ( this is your chance to be creative! ) First stage. - Over to You – ACTION!

Grab a ‘Post-It’ note pad

Write ANY idea on a pad ( this is your chance to be creative! )

Scenario Creation Rate the ideas with ‘stickies’ Red for potential impact

Rate the ideas with ‘stickies’

Red for potential impact

Scenario Creation Blue dots for the more unpredictable

Blue dots for the more unpredictable

Scenario Creation Cluster the most popular ideas Apply them to the Impact/Predictability matrix ( next slide ) Create plausible stories of the future

Cluster the most popular ideas

Apply them to the Impact/Predictability matrix ( next slide )

Create plausible stories of the future

Impact / Predictability Matrix Unpredictability High Low High Low x x x x x x x x x x x x Schwartz (1998), Lindgren M & Bandhold H, (2003)

Impact / Predictability Matrix Unpredictability High Low High Low A B C D Schwartz (1998), Lindgren M & Bandhold H, (2003) Trends

Step Two – ‘ Join the dots ’ – Paint scenarios Create stories of how this will happen ‘ Paint’ Scenarios

Create stories of how this will happen

‘ Paint’ Scenarios

Conclusion Think creatively, use a ‘Post-It’ note for each idea and stick it on the wall Time horizon is 10 years Work ‘ Future Back ’ Rate in terms of impact and unpredictability Build scenarios around main drivers identified Reduce to a few distinct scenarios

Think creatively, use a ‘Post-It’ note for each idea and stick it on the wall

Time horizon is 10 years

Work ‘ Future Back ’

Rate in terms of impact and unpredictability

Build scenarios around main drivers identified

Reduce to a few distinct scenarios

Idea generation… what about? Economics of xxxxx actually add up? xxxxxxxxxxx? Subsidies/reimbursement? Rapidly escalating xxxxx make previously uneconomic xxxxxxxxxxx feasible? xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx?

Economics of xxxxx actually add up?

xxxxxxxxxxx?

Subsidies/reimbursement?

Rapidly escalating xxxxx make previously uneconomic xxxxxxxxxxx feasible?

xxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxx?

References De Bono E. (1985) ‘ Six Thinking Hats’, MICA Management Resources; 1 st Ed. Godet M., (2001) ‘ Creating Futures’, Economica. Lindgren M. & Bandhold H (2003) ‘ Scenario Planning: the link between future and strategy’, Palgrave Macmillan. Schwartz P., (1998) ‘ The Art of the Long View’, Wiley. Bibliography Courtney H., Kirkland J. & Viguerie P. (1997) ‘ Strategy under Uncertainty’, Harvard Business Review. Schoemaker (1995) ‘ Scenario Planning – A new tool for Strategic Thinking ’, Sloan Management Review Senge P. N. (1990) ‘ Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organisation’, New York: Doubleday Van der Heijden, (1996) ‘ The Art of the Strategic Conversation’, Wiley

De Bono E. (1985) ‘ Six Thinking Hats’, MICA Management Resources; 1 st Ed.

Godet M., (2001) ‘ Creating Futures’, Economica.

Lindgren M. & Bandhold H (2003) ‘ Scenario Planning: the link between future and strategy’, Palgrave Macmillan.

Schwartz P., (1998) ‘ The Art of the Long View’, Wiley.

Courtney H., Kirkland J. & Viguerie P. (1997) ‘ Strategy under Uncertainty’, Harvard Business Review.

Schoemaker (1995) ‘ Scenario Planning – A new tool for Strategic Thinking ’, Sloan Management Review

Senge P. N. (1990) ‘ Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organisation’, New York: Doubleday

Van der Heijden, (1996) ‘ The Art of the Strategic Conversation’, Wiley

Conclusion Build plausible scenarios of the future Spell out opportunities and threats Judge the risks and opportunities of existing policy Formulate strategies that suit AHAs strengths and attempt to gain a competitive advantage – first mover potentially Inform our actions now

Build plausible scenarios of the future

Spell out opportunities and threats

Judge the risks and opportunities of existing policy

Formulate strategies that suit AHAs strengths and attempt to gain a competitive advantage – first mover potentially

Inform our actions now