scenario planning at the city scale | Doug Walker

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  • scenario planning at the city scale | Doug Walker

    1. 1. Scenario Planning at the City Scale Doug Walker, Placeways placeways APA 2012 National Planning Conference Session S547 Making Scenario Planning Work in PracticeMATERIALS COURTESY OFPLACEWAYS LLCAPRIL 2012
    2. 2. ®Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001. CommunityViz is a registered trademark of Placeways LLC
    3. 3. ®Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001. placeways 2011 Esri Business Partner Award CommunityViz is a registered trademark of Placeways LLC
    4. 4. ® Analysis WizardsArcGIS Extension Sketch Tools Dynamic Interactive Controls Charts Multiple Scenarios Intuitive Interface Optional Fly-through 3D
    5. 5. Kelowna, BC Pasadena, With thanks to City of With thanks to City of Pasadena Kelowna and and
    6. 6. Choosing a Study Area • Jurisdiction • Area of Influence • Commuter shed • Regional destinations • Social neighborhood • Census or TAZ boundaries
    7. 7. Scales of Analysis Building Parcel Grid Corridor TAZ City, Region, etc.
    8. 8. Scales of Analysis Building Parcel Aggregation Grid Disaggregation Corridor Nesting TAZ Overlay Districts City, Etc. Region, etc.
    9. 9. Capacity Assessment Zoning and policy Infrastructure and physical constraints Redevelopment potential Market realities Use scenarios
    10. 10. Suitability AssessmentAccessibility measuresAdverse impact areasHazards and constraintsSocial equity goalsPolicy goalsExpert or subjectiveweighting
    11. 11. Designing Scenarios Permutations of primary actions Relative emphasis of desired outcomes Expert or public suggestions Illustrative themes
    12. 12. Assigning Growth or Change Painting place types Specific policy areas (zones, districts, transects…) Mechanical allocation of housing and jobs based on capacity and demand Manual allocation of jobs and housing based on expert knowledge
    13. 13. Painting Land Use or Place Types 11
    14. 14. Importing Land Use Styles 12
    15. 15. Example Scenarios: Land
    16. 16. Performance and Impact Indicators Planners’ standard repertoire of outcomes and impacts Local issues of concern Comparisons to benchmark and across scenarios Notes: • Data availability • Model availability • Accuracy vs. precision • Computing performance • Uncertainty
    17. 17. Interactive User Interface Reports 3D Visuals Custom FormulaDecision Tools Editor Analysis ScenarioDynamic Analysis Engine GDB Mgt. ArcGIS Reference Data
    18. 18. GP Model Excel Interactive User Interface Reports External Input/Output Tables 3D Visuals Custom Formula Databases Decision Tools Editor Scripts Analysis Scenario Dynamic Analysis Engine 3D Tools GDB Mgt.Web Services (Formula) ArcGIS Reference Data Model Data
    19. 19. City-Scale Indicators
    20. 20. City-Scale Indicators
    21. 21. City-Scale Indicators
    22. 22. City-Scale Indicators
    23. 23. City-Scale Indicators
    24. 24. City-Scale Indicators
    25. 25. City-Scale Indicators
    26. 26. Scenario Comparisons
    27. 27. Model Outputs 20
    28. 28. Visual CommunicationMaps plus…Landmarks andstreetscapesTransects and samplesCitywide massing andhighlightsPresentation packages andkitsInteractive websites andmedia
    29. 29. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
    30. 30. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully
    31. 31. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully
    32. 32. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at this scale
    33. 33. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at this scale
    34. 34. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at this scale• Compared to region and site scales, form, design and precision matter an intermediate amount
    35. 35. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at this scale• Compared to region and site scales, form, design and precision matter an intermediate amount
    36. 36. Closing Thoughts on City Scale• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study area carefully• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at this scale• Compared to region and site scales, form, design and precision matter an intermediate amount• Cities are typically mature and complex; flexible models are needed
    37. 37. Doug Walker, Placeways placeways doug @ placeways.com

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