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GroWNC Scenario Planning Workshop Presentation - July 30, 2012

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GroWNC Scenario Planning Workshop Presentation - July 30, 2012

  1. 1. Workgroup Session #2 Scenario Planning July 30, 2012www.gro-wnc.org
  2. 2. Meeting Objectives & Agenda
  3. 3. Meeting Objectives• Integrate workgroups• Recognize complementary and competing goals• Compare two future scenarios to see if one achieves goals better than the other, or suggest a third scenario
  4. 4. Questions to be answeredPart One• Do either of the scenarios meet expectations?• What performance measures are you using to determine that?Part Two• If not, what should a third scenario accomplish?• Are there other performance measures you are interested in? 118,000 9,217
  5. 5. Today’s Agenda9:30 am Participant sign-in9:45 am Welcome9:50 am Scenario Planning Overview10:30 am Part I begins | Group scenario planning activity11:30 pm Lunch break12:15 pm Keypad Polling on Performance Measures12:30 pm Orientation for Part II12:35 pm Part II begins | Group scenario planning activity2:00 pm Summary discussion2:20 pm Thank you
  6. 6. Key Findings from the Community Meetingshttp://www.gro-wnc.org/communitymeeting.html
  7. 7. Thank You! County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of Attendees Madison Madison High 32 School Media Center Hendersonville Hendersonville 38 Operations Center Haywood Haywood 13 Community College Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. 64 Southside Center Transylvania Transylvania Public 64 Library
  8. 8. Thank You! County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of Attendees Madison Madison High 32 School Media Center Hendersonville Hendersonville 38 Operations Center Haywood Haywood 13 Community College Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. 64 Southside Center Transylvania Transylvania Public 64 Library
  9. 9. Sixteen percent of all land in the GroWNC region is incurrent agriculture use according to the USDepartment of Agriculture.Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007
  10. 10. The total market value of agriculture production inthe GroWNC region was $135million in 2007.Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007
  11. 11. -30 -10 -50 110 10 30 50 70 90Natural and Recreation Areas Farms Conservation Subdivision (2 units/acre) Large Lot Homes (5 acre) PreferredResidential Subdivisions (1-2 units/acre) Industrial and Commercial Small Lot Homes and Townhomes Not Preferred Small Downtowns/Village Centers Condos Downtown Asheville
  12. 12. 68% of the region lives in a single-family detachedhouse.Source: US Census
  13. 13. Housing Preferences Housing Data (US Census) • 68% of the region lives in a Urban Loft single-family detached 11% house • 17% of the region lives in a Condo; House on Apartment Several Acres 10%Mobile 32% mobile home TownhouseHome 1% 6% • 12% lives in a multi-family structure (includes House on duplex, triplex, apartments, Small Lot 22% House on Large Lot condos) 18% • 3% lives in a single-family attached house
  14. 14. The Arts industries in Buncombe and TransylvaniaCounties generated $2.6million in total localgovernment revenue in 2010.Source: Arts and Economic Prosperity Study IV
  15. 15. Summer camps in Buncombe, Henderson andTransylvania Counties generated $365 million intotal economic impact to the region.Source: NC Camping Association
  16. 16. Introduced preferencesThe City of Asheville has 132 linear miles ofsidewalks.Source: City of Asheville Sidewalk Inventory
  17. 17. Over 90% of WNC imports arrive from southernports demonstrating a heavy reliance on I-26 andother southeastern routes.Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit
  18. 18. Common Goals and Objectives
  19. 19. Projected Growth
  20. 20. Population700,000600,000 634,337 577,277500,000 519,674 457,948400,000 398,502300,000 333,519200,000100,000 - 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
  21. 21. Population Total 2040 Population = 634,337 Growth of 39%
  22. 22. Dwelling Units Total 2040 Dwelling Units = 328,816 Growth of 41%
  23. 23. 170,558 Dwelling Units180,000160,000140,000 125,479120,000 45,079 26,646100,000 81,359 80,000 14,694 54,713 60,000 42,969 7,915 1,638 40,000 28,275 23,821 15,906 10,109 20,000 8,471 - Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania 2010 Dwelling Units 2040 Dwelling Units
  24. 24. Employment Total 2040 Employment= 470,642 Growth of 36%
  25. 25. 350,000 Employment (Jobs) 300,780300,000250,000 220,909200,000 79,871150,000 24,921 11,028 91,355100,000 3,951 68,788 44,273 1,881 32,864 50,000 22,990 16,671 8,004 11,245 - Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania 2011 Employment 2040 Employment
  26. 26. Scenario Planning
  27. 27. Scenario Planning: Introduction
  28. 28. What is Scenario Planning?• Scenario Planning is a method for learning about the future. – Understand the potential consequences of present-day choices. – Make wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.
  29. 29. How does Scenario Planning work?• We start with a base case scenario, one that represents our future if we continue on a “business-as-usual” path, and we evaluate it relative to a subset of goals (development-related goals)• Then we consider our options… and we create additional (or alternative) scenarios that maximize different options so that we can understand some of the consequences – intended and unintended, good and bad• We evaluate alternatives relative to “business-as- usual” (BAU) and to each other guided by a subset of goals (development-related goals)
  30. 30. Together, We Create our Future
  31. 31. Scenario Planning:Aided by a Model
  32. 32. Area Type Development Density Classifications Intensity Definition Examples in the Study Area Newfound Mountains, Spring Creek Remote mountain ranges and valleys. Primarily usedVery Rural for timber harvesting and some farming. Mountain, Sandy Bottom (Madison Co.), Cascade Lake Area (Transylvania Co.) Sparsely settled areas. Largely farms with the Large portions of Madison County,Rural occasional rural subdivision. Western Henderson County Areas where a variety of land uses occur at low densities. Primarily low density residential withLow Density occasional strip retail development, isolated Dana, Beaumont, Montreat, Riceville industrial.Medium Areas where a variety of land uses occur. Primarily Grovemont, Swannanoa Hills, Pisgah medium density residential with occasional strip Drive in Canton, Millbrook Estates inDensity retail development, isolated industrial. Brevard, Dellwood in Hendersonville Areas where a variety of land uses occur at moderateModerate densities. Some concentration of employment, North Brevard, Black Mountain, generally separated and auto-oriented. IncludesDensity Weaverville, Mars Hill, Maggie Valley smaller towns, and villages that serve as nodes of activity in rural areas. Areas where a variety of land uses occur at the highest densities in the region. Generally found inHigh Density established core areas such as county seats. These Asheville, Waynesville, Hendersonville are the most pedestrian and transit friendly areas in the region. High concentration of employment.
  33. 33. Low Medium Moderate HighVery Rural Rural Density Density Density Density Barnardsville and the Ivy Creek Downtown Valley Asheville Grovemont, Newfound Dellwood in Mountains Hendersonville Downtown Montreat, Mars Hill RicevilleSource: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company
  34. 34. 2012
  35. 35. Developing the Model Growth Forecasts (Control Totals) Existing Development Population (Land Use Inventory)700,000600,000 634,337 Land Supply 577,277 (Available Land)500,000 519,674 457,948400,000 398,502 Suitability300,000 333,519 by Land Use Type200,000100,000 Development - Policies 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Growth Allocation
  36. 36. Scenario Planning:Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario
  37. 37. Business As Usual Scenario• Honors adopted local plans• Growth follows current trends, occurring where land is most suitable
  38. 38. 2012
  39. 39. BAU
  40. 40. Scenario Planning:Performance Measures
  41. 41. Common Goals and Objectives
  42. 42. Common Goals and Objectives
  43. 43. Evaluation of BAU 41%
  44. 44. Scenario Planning:Alternative Scenario
  45. 45. Energy Natural Economic Resources Development
  46. 46. Alternative Scenario #1• Assumes a policy of protection for prime industry and agricultural lands
  47. 47. ALT 1
  48. 48. BAU
  49. 49. Comparison: BAU vs. Alternative 1 41%
  50. 50. BAU
  51. 51. ALT 1
  52. 52. Today’s Work Session
  53. 53. Objectives• Integrate workgroups• Recognize complementary and competing goals• Compare two future scenarios to see if one achieves goals better than the other, or suggest a third scenario
  54. 54. Explanation of Tools• Performance Measures (table) – 11x17 (individual worksheet) – 24x36 (group)• Maps – Current Year – BAU – Alternative 1• Existing conditions maps• Other resource materials• Markers, stickers, etc.
  55. 55. Part One• Where you live/work• Review Performance Measure Handout• Evaluate the BAU• Evaluate Alternative 1• Questions to Answer: – Do either of the scenarios meet expectations? – What performance measures are you using to determine that?
  56. 56. Where you live, where you work.Where you LiveWhere you Work
  57. 57. Review of Performance MeasuresHandout Circle which performancemeasures bestrepresent your priorities.
  58. 58. Evaluate the BAU
  59. 59. Evaluate Alternative 1
  60. 60. Part Two• Create a new scenario• Questions to Answer: – What should a third scenario accomplish? – Are there other performance measures you are interested in? 118,000 9,217
  61. 61. Create a new Scenario. Distribute Growth & Protect Areas Yellow Dot = Housing Red Dot = JobsDark Green Dot = ProtectedLight Green Dot = Rural/Farm
  62. 62. Where is there room for improvement? What performancemeasures MUST be improved? 50%
  63. 63. Are there other performancemeasures you are interested in?
  64. 64. THANK YOU!!! Contact usgrownc@landofsky.org www.gro-wnc.org

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