GroWNC Scenario Planning Workshop Presentation - July 30, 2012

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  • No one has a crystal ball
  • First, we just need to say thank you to all of the Workgroup Volunteers who made the community meetings a success. Some of the meetings were better attended than others but in each one we received valuable community input and feedback!We really couldn’t have done it without all of your time and effort… Rob Bell, even with his injury, made it to all 5 meetings! Findings: -Confirmed info-Provided detailed examples of info-Introduced new info and ideas-Revealed disconnects in information
  • First, we just need to say thank you to all of the Workgroup Volunteers who made the community meetings a success. Some of the meetings were better attended than others but in each one we received valuable community input and feedback!We really couldn’t have done it without all of your time and effort… Rob Bell, even with his injury, made it to all 5 meetings! Findings: -Confirmed info-Provided detailed examples of info-Introduced new info and ideas-Revealed disconnects in information
  • The meeting attendees:Agreed with some info from dataProvided detailed info that explained what we were seeing in the dataIntroduced new infoRevealed disconnects in info
  • Going in to the community meetings we had a lot of information and data to share… The feedback we received helped us in a variety of ways…
  • But more than that it provided us an opportunity to share information that started to reinforce how interrelated many of the key themes are in this case… the preservation of lands
  • First, it reinforced some things we already knew like the importance of farms and natural areas to the region as a whole…Second, it showed support for downtowns and nodes of activity.
  • Shed some light on some new information… we knew how important the craft industry is to the overall economy in WNC…
  • Showed some interesting regional preferences… For example, at the housing station feedback was split 50/50 between what we would consider a rural residential choice and a denser option (house on small lot, urban loft, condo/apartment, townhouse)
  • Shed some light on some new information… we knew how important the craft industry is to the overall economy in WNC…
  • But we didn’t have a full and robust database of all the places that people would consider as these types of resources…
  • In addition, it helped highlight some things that we knew but hadn’t fully explored… Like the total economic impact of camps in the region…
  • In addition, going in we knew wed get feedback on things like the need for more transportation options like biking trails and sidewalks
  • But it also revealed only one part of the story… we didn’t get input on some info our data and our workgroups had revealed…like the importance of the region's critical transportation infrastructure to the economy…
  • Percentage of dwelling unit growth is slightly higher than population growth due to seasonal home construction.
  • When the sun sets 28 years from today what will this region look like? What future will development patterns and current land use policies result in?
  • Scenario Alternative #1 was constructed to promote all of the Economic Development Goals:Promote adaptive economic development that encourages entrepreneurship, supports existing businesses, and attracts new employers.Support an economic development approach that enables a diversified economy built on the region’s priorities, competitive advantages, and local initiatives.Create and maintain appropriate physical infrastructure needed for economic development opportunities in each county.Create a region where every individual has the opportunity to improve their employment status through affordable access to timely and relevant skills training and job placement assistance.Support opportunities and jobs that attract and keep our young people in the region.In addition it addresses the following land use goals:Preserve agricultural lands for farming and forest products.Preserve scenic quality.Integrate/coordinate local and regional planning for economic development, land use and infrastructure.Promote development of land that integrates and optimizes its natural suitability and function.It also addresses the following Natural Resource Goals:The region actively supports sustainable farming and forestry practices and invests in the necessary infrastructure to ensure a strong, vital farm community that provides at least 10% of foods locally. The region has significantly decreased the rate in which it is losing high quality farm/forestlands and prime soils.It also addresses the following Energy Goal:Economic Development. Support the advancement of the region’s clean energy economy to drive innovation and entrepreneurship, create high-wage jobs, and foster business activity.
  • Prime industrial lands were identified based on local plans and a land use suitability model that analyzed economic and environmental factors including:-lands proximal to existing industrial land uses, proximity to major roads and interstates, access to utilities, minimum parcel size, slope, floodplain, and wetlands
  • Prime agricultural areas were based on Present Use Value parcels (working lands) and the agricultural suitability model from the Linking Lands and Communities study. Development suitability in the Growth Model was adjusted to preserve prime agricultural lands for agricultural activities and preserve industrial lands for industrial jobs.
  • Alternative #1 results in a different development pattern by resulting in more industrial jobs locating on industrial lands and less residential uses locating on prime industrial and agricultural lands.
  • Energy GoalsRenewable Energy. Increase the deployment of price-competitive, clean, and locally produced renewable energy to give consumers more energy choices while strengthening the energy, economic, and environmental landscape of western North Carolina. Energy Efficiency & Conservation. Improve residential, commercial, and industrial sector energy performance through the promotion of sustainable design, energy efficiency, conservation, and advanced energy analytics.Transportation. Strengthen transportation sector energyperformance and reduce petroleum dependency through the promotion of alternative fuels, clean vehicles, and demand reduction programs. Economic Development. Support the advancement of the region’s clean energy economy to drive innovation and entrepreneurship, create high-wage jobs, and foster business activity. Public Education & Outreach. Strengthen regional energy literacy through public education and outreach to create energy conscious communities in western North Carolina.
  • Natural Resources A STRONG ECONOMYThe region actively supports sustainable farming and forestry practices and invests in the necessary infrastructure to ensure a strong, vital farm community that provides at least 10% of foods locallyThe region has significantly decreased the rate in which it is losing high quality farm/forestlands and prime soils.The region invests in eco-tourism as a key economic driver, supporting collaborations, land and water conservation, stewardship, promotion, and educational or support infrastructure. LAND AND WATERThe region’s decision- makers, community leaders, and landowners recognize that sustaining high quality natural habitats enhance and sustain the region’s economy and overall quality of life for its residents, and maintain or improve water resources, air quality, biodiversity and scenic viewsheds. WILDLIFE & BIODIVERSITYThe region recognizes the importance of connectivity between protected lands by managing wildlife and recreation corridors for biodiversity and protecting unfragmented forest blocks. HEALTHResidents recognize the health and restorative benefits associated with outdoor recreation and regularly take advantage of opportunities throughout the region. KEY STRATEGIES THAT WILL ENABLE OUR REGION TO ACHIEVE THESE GOALSPolicies and planning efforts prioritize protection of habitats that support resilient communities and a positive response and adaptation to the effects of climate change. The region has dedicated sources of funding that support land and water conservation.
  • Economic Development Promote adaptive economic development that encourages entrepreneurship, supports existing businesses, and attracts new employers. Support an economic development approach that enables a diversified economy built on the region’s priorities, competitive advantages, and local initiatives. Create and maintain appropriate physical infrastructure needed for economic development opportunities in each county. Create a region where every individual has the opportunity to improve their employment status through affordable access to timely and relevant skills training and job placement assistance. Support opportunities and jobs that attract and keep our young people in the region.
  • Scenario Alternative #1 was constructed to promote all of the Economic Development Goals:Promote adaptive economic development that encourages entrepreneurship, supports existing businesses, and attracts new employers.Support an economic development approach that enables a diversified economy built on the region’s priorities, competitive advantages, and local initiatives.Create and maintain appropriate physical infrastructure needed for economic development opportunities in each county.Create a region where every individual has the opportunity to improve their employment status through affordable access to timely and relevant skills training and job placement assistance.Support opportunities and jobs that attract and keep our young people in the region.In addition it addresses the following land use goals:Preserve agricultural lands for farming and forest products.Preserve scenic quality.Integrate/coordinate local and regional planning for economic development, land use and infrastructure.Promote development of land that integrates and optimizes its natural suitability and function.It also addresses the following Natural Resource Goals:The region actively supports sustainable farming and forestry practices and invests in the necessary infrastructure to ensure a strong, vital farm community that provides at least 10% of foods locally. The region has significantly decreased the rate in which it is losing high quality farm/forestlands and prime soils.It also addresses the following Energy Goal:Economic Development. Support the advancement of the region’s clean energy economy to drive innovation and entrepreneurship, create high-wage jobs, and foster business activity.
  • GroWNC Scenario Planning Workshop Presentation - July 30, 2012

    1. 1. Workgroup Session #2 Scenario Planning July 30, 2012www.gro-wnc.org
    2. 2. Meeting Objectives & Agenda
    3. 3. Meeting Objectives• Integrate workgroups• Recognize complementary and competing goals• Compare two future scenarios to see if one achieves goals better than the other, or suggest a third scenario
    4. 4. Questions to be answeredPart One• Do either of the scenarios meet expectations?• What performance measures are you using to determine that?Part Two• If not, what should a third scenario accomplish?• Are there other performance measures you are interested in? 118,000 9,217
    5. 5. Today’s Agenda9:30 am Participant sign-in9:45 am Welcome9:50 am Scenario Planning Overview10:30 am Part I begins | Group scenario planning activity11:30 pm Lunch break12:15 pm Keypad Polling on Performance Measures12:30 pm Orientation for Part II12:35 pm Part II begins | Group scenario planning activity2:00 pm Summary discussion2:20 pm Thank you
    6. 6. Key Findings from the Community Meetingshttp://www.gro-wnc.org/communitymeeting.html
    7. 7. Thank You! County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of Attendees Madison Madison High 32 School Media Center Hendersonville Hendersonville 38 Operations Center Haywood Haywood 13 Community College Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. 64 Southside Center Transylvania Transylvania Public 64 Library
    8. 8. Thank You! County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of Attendees Madison Madison High 32 School Media Center Hendersonville Hendersonville 38 Operations Center Haywood Haywood 13 Community College Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. 64 Southside Center Transylvania Transylvania Public 64 Library
    9. 9. Sixteen percent of all land in the GroWNC region is incurrent agriculture use according to the USDepartment of Agriculture.Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007
    10. 10. The total market value of agriculture production inthe GroWNC region was $135million in 2007.Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007
    11. 11. -30 -10 -50 110 10 30 50 70 90Natural and Recreation Areas Farms Conservation Subdivision (2 units/acre) Large Lot Homes (5 acre) PreferredResidential Subdivisions (1-2 units/acre) Industrial and Commercial Small Lot Homes and Townhomes Not Preferred Small Downtowns/Village Centers Condos Downtown Asheville
    12. 12. 68% of the region lives in a single-family detachedhouse.Source: US Census
    13. 13. Housing Preferences Housing Data (US Census) • 68% of the region lives in a Urban Loft single-family detached 11% house • 17% of the region lives in a Condo; House on Apartment Several Acres 10%Mobile 32% mobile home TownhouseHome 1% 6% • 12% lives in a multi-family structure (includes House on duplex, triplex, apartments, Small Lot 22% House on Large Lot condos) 18% • 3% lives in a single-family attached house
    14. 14. The Arts industries in Buncombe and TransylvaniaCounties generated $2.6million in total localgovernment revenue in 2010.Source: Arts and Economic Prosperity Study IV
    15. 15. Summer camps in Buncombe, Henderson andTransylvania Counties generated $365 million intotal economic impact to the region.Source: NC Camping Association
    16. 16. Introduced preferencesThe City of Asheville has 132 linear miles ofsidewalks.Source: City of Asheville Sidewalk Inventory
    17. 17. Over 90% of WNC imports arrive from southernports demonstrating a heavy reliance on I-26 andother southeastern routes.Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit
    18. 18. Common Goals and Objectives
    19. 19. Projected Growth
    20. 20. Population700,000600,000 634,337 577,277500,000 519,674 457,948400,000 398,502300,000 333,519200,000100,000 - 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    21. 21. Population Total 2040 Population = 634,337 Growth of 39%
    22. 22. Dwelling Units Total 2040 Dwelling Units = 328,816 Growth of 41%
    23. 23. 170,558 Dwelling Units180,000160,000140,000 125,479120,000 45,079 26,646100,000 81,359 80,000 14,694 54,713 60,000 42,969 7,915 1,638 40,000 28,275 23,821 15,906 10,109 20,000 8,471 - Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania 2010 Dwelling Units 2040 Dwelling Units
    24. 24. Employment Total 2040 Employment= 470,642 Growth of 36%
    25. 25. 350,000 Employment (Jobs) 300,780300,000250,000 220,909200,000 79,871150,000 24,921 11,028 91,355100,000 3,951 68,788 44,273 1,881 32,864 50,000 22,990 16,671 8,004 11,245 - Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania 2011 Employment 2040 Employment
    26. 26. Scenario Planning
    27. 27. Scenario Planning: Introduction
    28. 28. What is Scenario Planning?• Scenario Planning is a method for learning about the future. – Understand the potential consequences of present-day choices. – Make wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.
    29. 29. How does Scenario Planning work?• We start with a base case scenario, one that represents our future if we continue on a “business-as-usual” path, and we evaluate it relative to a subset of goals (development-related goals)• Then we consider our options… and we create additional (or alternative) scenarios that maximize different options so that we can understand some of the consequences – intended and unintended, good and bad• We evaluate alternatives relative to “business-as- usual” (BAU) and to each other guided by a subset of goals (development-related goals)
    30. 30. Together, We Create our Future
    31. 31. Scenario Planning:Aided by a Model
    32. 32. Area Type Development Density Classifications Intensity Definition Examples in the Study Area Newfound Mountains, Spring Creek Remote mountain ranges and valleys. Primarily usedVery Rural for timber harvesting and some farming. Mountain, Sandy Bottom (Madison Co.), Cascade Lake Area (Transylvania Co.) Sparsely settled areas. Largely farms with the Large portions of Madison County,Rural occasional rural subdivision. Western Henderson County Areas where a variety of land uses occur at low densities. Primarily low density residential withLow Density occasional strip retail development, isolated Dana, Beaumont, Montreat, Riceville industrial.Medium Areas where a variety of land uses occur. Primarily Grovemont, Swannanoa Hills, Pisgah medium density residential with occasional strip Drive in Canton, Millbrook Estates inDensity retail development, isolated industrial. Brevard, Dellwood in Hendersonville Areas where a variety of land uses occur at moderateModerate densities. Some concentration of employment, North Brevard, Black Mountain, generally separated and auto-oriented. IncludesDensity Weaverville, Mars Hill, Maggie Valley smaller towns, and villages that serve as nodes of activity in rural areas. Areas where a variety of land uses occur at the highest densities in the region. Generally found inHigh Density established core areas such as county seats. These Asheville, Waynesville, Hendersonville are the most pedestrian and transit friendly areas in the region. High concentration of employment.
    33. 33. Low Medium Moderate HighVery Rural Rural Density Density Density Density Barnardsville and the Ivy Creek Downtown Valley Asheville Grovemont, Newfound Dellwood in Mountains Hendersonville Downtown Montreat, Mars Hill RicevilleSource: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company
    34. 34. 2012
    35. 35. Developing the Model Growth Forecasts (Control Totals) Existing Development Population (Land Use Inventory)700,000600,000 634,337 Land Supply 577,277 (Available Land)500,000 519,674 457,948400,000 398,502 Suitability300,000 333,519 by Land Use Type200,000100,000 Development - Policies 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Growth Allocation
    36. 36. Scenario Planning:Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario
    37. 37. Business As Usual Scenario• Honors adopted local plans• Growth follows current trends, occurring where land is most suitable
    38. 38. 2012
    39. 39. BAU
    40. 40. Scenario Planning:Performance Measures
    41. 41. Common Goals and Objectives
    42. 42. Common Goals and Objectives
    43. 43. Evaluation of BAU 41%
    44. 44. Scenario Planning:Alternative Scenario
    45. 45. Energy Natural Economic Resources Development
    46. 46. Alternative Scenario #1• Assumes a policy of protection for prime industry and agricultural lands
    47. 47. ALT 1
    48. 48. BAU
    49. 49. Comparison: BAU vs. Alternative 1 41%
    50. 50. BAU
    51. 51. ALT 1
    52. 52. Today’s Work Session
    53. 53. Objectives• Integrate workgroups• Recognize complementary and competing goals• Compare two future scenarios to see if one achieves goals better than the other, or suggest a third scenario
    54. 54. Explanation of Tools• Performance Measures (table) – 11x17 (individual worksheet) – 24x36 (group)• Maps – Current Year – BAU – Alternative 1• Existing conditions maps• Other resource materials• Markers, stickers, etc.
    55. 55. Part One• Where you live/work• Review Performance Measure Handout• Evaluate the BAU• Evaluate Alternative 1• Questions to Answer: – Do either of the scenarios meet expectations? – What performance measures are you using to determine that?
    56. 56. Where you live, where you work.Where you LiveWhere you Work
    57. 57. Review of Performance MeasuresHandout Circle which performancemeasures bestrepresent your priorities.
    58. 58. Evaluate the BAU
    59. 59. Evaluate Alternative 1
    60. 60. Part Two• Create a new scenario• Questions to Answer: – What should a third scenario accomplish? – Are there other performance measures you are interested in? 118,000 9,217
    61. 61. Create a new Scenario. Distribute Growth & Protect Areas Yellow Dot = Housing Red Dot = JobsDark Green Dot = ProtectedLight Green Dot = Rural/Farm
    62. 62. Where is there room for improvement? What performancemeasures MUST be improved? 50%
    63. 63. Are there other performancemeasures you are interested in?
    64. 64. THANK YOU!!! Contact usgrownc@landofsky.org www.gro-wnc.org

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