Context for Today or: Explicit Learning Goals <ul><li>Most likely, the Future is not that different from now </li><ul><li>Demographics change, capacities increase, but humans still learn, work, play, love, and die </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Future is impossible to predict , and if you try, you will be wrong, and probably be ridiculed </li><ul><li>But the future can be forecasted through a variety of fuzzy arts and rigorous methods </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An unchanged Future is boring and useless </li><ul><li>But talking about the extreme possibilities is much more interesting and generates better strategies </li></ul></ul>
Futurists, aka Futurismologists <ul><li>Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them.
Futures Studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel.
The discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. </li></ul>
Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can often be depicted in terms of pendulum shifts The future sometimes looks like a long tail Source: Longtail.com Source: Wikipedia
Some Fun Foresight Shapes The S-Curve is popular for forecasting adoption of new technologies and products But the Hype Cycle is usually more accurate Source: Gartner via Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia
Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can be depicted as a “cone of uncertainty” It becomes more uncertain the further out you try to look Trends that seem obvious now become wilder and more unpredictable
Tools of the Pros: Trend Analysis <ul><li>collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information
often coupled with data visualizations, such as maps </li></ul>
Tools of the Pros: the Delphi Method <ul><li>systematic, interactive method which relies on a panel of independent experts
experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds
after each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments
participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group
it is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer </li></ul>
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning and our learning activity for today <ul><li>(orginally) simulation games created by analysts for policy or military uses
(now) plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day, combined with narratives about where those situations may lead </li></ul>
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 1: Choose a Focal Issue (and Timeframe) <ul><li>example: How can we design learning environments for 2020 to ensure that all students succeed?
example: How can we support continuing / lifelong learning in 2020?
example: How can we ensure equity and access for all students in 2020?
example: How can organizations maximize the potential of workers in 2020? </li></ul>
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 2: Choose Your Critical Uncertainties <ul><li>Make some basic assumptions </li><ul><li>ex: the Earth will still support life in 2020
ex: bandwidth, storage, and data will continue to increase over the next 10 years </li></ul><li>Create a list of critical uncertainties that have identifiable possibile outcomes, and choose 2 that will work well together </li><ul><li>ex: What will learning outcomes be? Fluid? Static?
ex. What will the purpose of education be? Citizens? Workers?
ex: Will the world become flatter or isolated?
ex: Where will learning happen? </li></ul><li>Tip: Do not assign value judgements to critical uncertainties
Arrange your critical uncertainties in a Cartesian plane (aka 2x2) </li></ul>Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 3: Imagine details of each quadrant Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid Scenario B: Supply and Demand for Democracy Scenario A: America Competes Scenario C: Hot, Flat, and Crowded Scenario D: Teacher-At-Large
Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Other Steps <ul><li>Step 4: Create scenarios (stories) explaining how each quadrant might happen
Step 5: Figure out how your (organization, institution, family, project, etc) could act most effectively in each situation
Step 6: Over the next year or two, watch for signs that one of these scenarios might be playing out
Step 7: Revise your scenarios every few years </li></ul>
Learning Activity <ul><li>As a large group, brainstorm 4 - 5 focal issues (5 minutes)
Self-select into small groups to address one of the focal issues (20 minutes) </li><ul><li>Identify several critical uncertainties; narrow down to 2
Map to 2x2 and identify characteristics of each quadrant </li></ul><li>Regroup to report out </li></ul>
Products of the Pros: The Map of Future Forces <ul><li>Trend Analysis and Visualization