Most immediate are the urgent hunger needs in over 37 developing countries, 20 of which are LDCs. The global food crisis undermines one of the most fundamental human rights – “The right to be free from hunger and malnutrition.” The 3 billion people living on $2 or less spend between 50 - 80% on food. Food prices have increased by 83% in just three years. The price increase has been observed particularly very sharp for staple food crops. In June-Sept, 2012, Price of maize increased by 50% That of wheat increased by 45% And price of soybean by 40% “Rebellion of the Hungry” From Mexico to Pakistan, food prices have doubled in three years and have sparked riots in numerous countries. Cameroon, Africa- a strike over high fuel prices changed to protest about food prices, 20 people dead. Egypt - at least 70 people killed, riots due to high price of bread. The Sunday Herald described the world’s food situation as: ” The Biggest Crisis of the 21st Century”

1. welco

2. 1st Seminar on
Global Food Crisis: Causes, Severity and Outlook
Major advisor
Dr. M. T. Sharma
By
Vijay B. Keraba
PGS12AGR5760
UAS Dharwad

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Wherehere enjoy
they mil
There’s an
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r and h
delicious, nutritious e Ric
• Where >300 million of people a
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people live in
Where billions of people
Imaginemalnourished
are a planet EARTH
Imagine a They’re EARTH
planet
overweighed
A child die of hunger
every 6-seconds
• Where there are riots because
of “No Food”
Where they
waste the food

4. GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS

5. Global Food Crisis: Causes, Severity and outlook

6. FLOW OF PRESENTATION
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Food prices: Trends, drivers, outlook
Nature and underlying causes of the food crisis
Impact of food crisis
Implications for India
Future prospects and
Conclusion

7. Crisis .
?
Food Crisis..??
Crisis
“A food
crisis
occurs
when
rates
of
hunger
and
malnutrition rise sharply at local, national, or global levels.
Timmer, C. (2010)
Food Security exists
When all people, at all times, have physical and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preference for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit, Rome, 1996)

8. INTRODUCTION
 Hunger is a silent enemy.
 World is hit by global food
crisis.

9. Cntd....
Most immediate are the urgent hunger needs in over 37 developing
countries, 20 of which are LDCs.
The global food crisis undermines one of the most fundamental human
rights – “The right to be free from hunger and malnutrition.”
The 3 billion people living on $2 or less spend between 50 - 80% on food.
– Food prices have increased by 83% in just three years.
 The price increase has been observed particularly very sharp for
staple food crops.
In June-Sept, 2012,
» Price of maize increased by 50%
» That of wheat increased by 45%
» And price of soybean by 40%

10.  GFC associates:
The high food prices,
Shortages,
Reduced food consumption and
Worsened nutrition
“Rebellion of the Hungry”
 From Mexico to Pakistan, food prices have doubled in three years
and have sparked riots in numerous countries.
 Cameroon, Africa- a strike over high fuel prices changed to protest
about food prices, 20 people dead.
 Egypt - at least 70 people killed, riots due to high price of bread.

11. Important Terms
 Price Volatility: Volatility is a measure of price
variation from period (t − 1) to time period ‘t’.
R = Pt − P(t−1 )
Where, R - Price Volatility
Pt - Price variation at period ‘t’
P(t-1) - Price variation at period ‘t-1’
Food Price Index:
It is a measure of the monthly change
in international
commodities.
prices of
a
basket
of food

12. Extent / Severity of Global Food Crisis
2008
The Year of Global Food Crisis
The Sunday Herald described the world’s food
situation as:
” The Biggest Crisis of the 21st Century”
7% of them dying before they reach fifth birthday.!!
7% of them dying before they reach fifth birthday.!!

13. Map of Hunger (% prevalence of undernourishment, 2012)
Map of Hunger (% prevalence of undernourishment, 2012)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)

14. Percentage of Children under 5 years of age who are stunted (%),
Percentage of Children under 5 years of age who are stunted (%),
2005-2011
2005-2011
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)

15. NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNDERNOURISHED
NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNDERNOURISHED
(1990-1992 TO 2010-2012)
(1990-1992 TO 2010-2012)

16. Expected number of undernourished, incorporating the
Expected number of undernourished, incorporating the
effects of climate change (in millions)
effects of climate change (in millions)

17. Price Hike

18. Domestic food price volatility by level of economic development
Domestic food price volatility by level of economic development
(2000 and 2010)
(2000 and 2010)

19. FAO Food Price Index
FAO Food Price Index
Year
Food
Price
Index
Meat
Dairy
Cereals
Vegetable
oils
Sugar
2000
91.1
96.5
95.2
85.8
69.5
116.1
2001
94.6
100.1
105.3
86.8
67.2
122.6
2002
89.6
89.9
80.9
93.7
87.4
97.8
2003
97.7
95.9
95.6
99.2
100.6
100.6
2004
112.7
114.2
123.6
107.1
111.9
101.7
2005
117.9
123.7
134.9
101.3
102.7
140.3
2006
127.2
120.9
130.0
118.9
112.7
209.6
2007
161.6
130.8
220.3
163.4
172.0
143.0
2008
201.4
160.7
222.9
232.1
227.1
181.6
2009
160.6
141.3
150.0
170.2
152.8
257.3
2010
188.0
158.3
206.7
179.2
197.4
302.0
2011
230.1
183.3
230.2
240.9
254.5
368.9
2012
213.4
182.0
194.1
236.1
223.9
305.7
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)

20. FAO Food Price Index, 2013 (Up to Oct.)
Months
Food
Price
Index
Meat
Dairy
Cereals
Vegetable
oils
Sugar
1/2013
213.3
184.3
210.6
244.0
200.3
267.8
2/2013
212.8
186.4
210.6
241.1
201.8
259.2
3/2013
214.7
185.2
227.8
240.5
196.7
262.0
4/2013
216.5
186.6
256.6
230.7
194.0
252.6
5/2013
214.4
180.0
252.5
234.8
194.3
250.1
6/2013
211.9
179.7
246.3
232.3
193.5
242.6
7/2013
207.5
179.4
243.7
222.3
186.7
239.0
8/2013
204.6
182.4
248.2
206.8
181.8
241.7
9/2013
203.1
184.0
251.0
195.0
184.3
246.5
10/2013
205.8
184.2
252.1
197.1
188.0
264.8
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)

21. Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT)

22. Real food price changes predicted over next 20 years
Real food price changes predicted over next 20 years
Change In 2030
Baseline-2010

24. Comparing Oil Price Index with other food items
Source: FAO World Food Situation Portal (www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation).

25. Causes of
Global Food
Crisis..??
 Increasing population: Reduction in
per capita land availability
W
astage of food
 Change in eating habits
P
roduction of bio-fuels
 Crop failure due to extreme weather
 Grain used as live stock feed
 Speculation drives
 Global
warming
and
natural

26. 1. Increasing population

27. World rural and urban population
World rural and urban population
(1960-2050)
(1960-2050)
The
global
population
is
rising
by
more
than 1.15 per cent
a
year,
which
contributes to a
net addition to the
demand for food
and which reduces

28. Cropland per capita (ha/cap, 2009)
Cropland per capita (ha/cap, 2009)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) and World Bank (WDI)
Source: FAO, Statistics Division (FAOSTAT) and World Bank (WDI)

30. We have already lost 24% of the
We have already lost 24% of the
world’s farmland and are continuing
world’s farmland and are continuing
to lose a further 1% per year
to lose a further 1% per year

32. Water scarcity

33. 2. Wastage of food

34. 3. Change in eating habits

35. 
A diminishing supply of fish will put more pressure
on land based protein food sources and encourage
intensive farming.
 Japanese are consuming 10 times as much protein as
they did 50 years ago.
 More and more people are shifting towards meat based
food system
 The shift in diets towards meat products, particularly in
China, and population growth in India and other
countries are also contributing to the surge in prices of
staple foods.

36. 4. Production of bio-fuels

37. IMF
estimates
that
corn
ethanol
production in the US accounted for at
least ½ the rise in world’s corn
demand in past 3 years, as farmers
switched their farms to corn.
It takes 232Kg of corn to fill an average
50L car tank with ethanol.
Enough corn to feed a child for 1 year.!

43. 5. Crop failure due to extreme
weather

46. Global warming
The threat of global
warming caused by emissions of
man-made
greenhouse
gases
such as carbon dioxide (CO2)
that
are
released
into
the
atmosphere by the burning of
fossil fuels such as oil, gas and
coal has resulted in a search for
so-called “green” fuels that can
power our vehicles (cars, trucks,
boats, and planes)

47. 6. Grain used as live stock feed

49. 7. Speculation drives

50.  Professional speculators and hedge
funds are driving up the prices of
basic commodities in commodity
futures
 These dealers are reported to be
shifting investments out of equities
and mortgage bonds and ploughing
them into food and raw materials.

51. Inequality in Consumption

52. The average American eats
1,800 lbs of food per year.
The average household throws
away 470 lbs.
According to FAO, 14% of the
food Americans buy is wasted.
127 million Americans are
overweighed
All while people in other
countries STARVE.
More than 800 million
people in the world are
malnourished
That’s one in every ten
children of the age five in
the world are underweight

53. IMPACT OF FOOD CRISIS
 “For the middle class, it means cutting out medical
care.”
 “For those on 90 Rs ($2) a day, it means cutting out
meat and taking children out of school.”
 “For those on 45 Rs ($1) a day, it means cutting out
meat and vegetables and eating only cereal.”
 “For those on 25 Rs (50 cents) a day, it means total
disaster.

54. Impact on the poor
 Rising food prices affect the poor directly.
 The poor generally spend large fractions of their budgets on food, so
rising prices make them more likely to reduce their food
consumption.
 The short-term impacts are alarming: incomes fall by more than 25%
and food consumption by almost 20%.
 Medium-term prospects remain bleak, with incomes and food
consumption down by 11% and 8% respectively.

55. Impact on farming
 Higher food prices raise farmers incomes if global price
movements transmit to local markets.
 Transmission can be mooted by policies on domestic prices
and by transport costs.
 In response to price increases, wealthy farmers invested
more in productive assets, while poor farmers increased
their financial savings as well as consumption. Price spikes
relax liquidity constraints, which increases investments
among the richer while do so savings and consumptions
among the poor, possibly leading to diverging income
inequality in the long run.

56. Impact on low-income countries
 Low-income countries face inflationary pressure and rising import
bills both of which undermine economic growth and development.
 FAO estimates that food import bills for developing countries rose by
25% in 2007 (Shapouri and Rosen, 2008).
 The World Food Programme (WFP) needing another $500 million
to sustain current operations, the likely outcome for these countries
is that food availability will fall.
 Higher food prices are incentives to produce local food and could
stimulate agriculture

57. Response of countries due to GFC???
 Kazakhstan, the world’s 6th largest wheat exporter, announced plans to
restrict exports of wheat fearing its citizens may go hungry.
 China, the world’s biggest grain producer starts to curb overseas sales of
wheat, corn and rice
 2010 onwards China started to import the equivalent of 40% of US corn
exports.
 Vietnam, the world’s 3rd biggest rice exporter, restricts rice exports to slow
inflation.
 Egypt bans rice exports.

58. Indian scenario
Year
Population
(millions)
Available Cereal
(gm/cap/day)
Recommended
(gm/cap/day)
Available Pulses
(gm/cap/day)
Recommended
(gm/cap/day)
1950-51
363.0
44.3
460
8.0
40
1960-61
442.0
64.6
460
11.1
40
1970-71
551.0
84.0
460
10.3
40
1980-81
689.0
104.8
460
9.4
40
1990-91
852.0
145.7
460
12.9
40
2000-01
1033.0
145.6
460
11.3
40
2005-06
1103.0
157.4
460
12.7
40
2006-07
1120.0
168.8
460
13.3
40
2007-08
1136.5
168.9
460
14.7
40
2008-09
1153.01
165.9
460
17.6
40
2009-10
1169.4
173.7
460
15.8
40
2010-11
1210
176.5
460
13.7
40
Source: www.indiastat.com

59. Performance on Global Hunger Index of India
Year
Rank in Hunger
index
Out of total
no. of
countries
Score
Status
1990
---
---
31.73
Alarming
2007
94
118
25.03.
Alarming
2008
66
88
23.70
Alarming
2009
65
88
23.90
Alarming
2010
67
84
24.10
Alarming
2011
67
81
24.2
Alarming
2012
65
79
22.9
Alarming
Source:-Global Hunger Report, IFPRI

60. How can we reduce the
impact of
Global Food Crisis..???

61. Future Prospects

Precautionary measures like
export bans and rationing in various
countries have exacerbated the price
increase
 Higher food prices and greater attention to food now would certainly stimulate
production
 There is scope to raise production through area expansion in Europe and
North America, and a productivity increase in developing Asia and Eastern
Europe.
 The pressure to use grain for biofuel as an alternative to hydrocarbon energy

62. Preventing Future Crises
 Loosen restrictions on exploiting domestic oil and natural gas
reserves.
 Eliminate U.S. agricultural subsidies and price supports.
 Promote the global elimination of agricultural subsidies.
 Encourage the development and use of genetically modified crops by
eliminating trade barriers to such crops and products.

65. Seminar ends here,
But, what about the Global Food
Crisis..????
Think on.....!!!!!
Our food system is broken.!
We need to fix it..!!
We must....!!!
Thank you