Инструменты общественного мониторинга в странах EC д-р Биргит Ветцель, эксперт Фонда им К. Аденауэра

1. Inception
Workshop
SESSION I
Peter Mackay
For RDTA 8119: Economics of Climate
Change in Central & West Asia
Bishkek 25th June 2015

2. Workshop objectives
 Review current circumstances in
Kyrgyzstan that potentially impact on
project activities and implementation of
the study;
 Review and finalize the work plans;
 Confirm organizational arrangements for
project management; and
 To present to government and key
stakeholders the draft Inception Report
for comments, feedback and support.

3. Session I: Introduction to the Project
Context, aims & objectives, expected outcomes.
Findings from the Inception Mission
Project Design & Implementation Arrangements
Session II: Study Approach & Methodology
Economic Analysis
Climate Change/Impact Analysis
Session III: Stakeholder Involvement
 Stakeholder Mapping
 Project Selection
 Investment Proposals
 Questions & Answers
Presentation outline

4. The RDTA 8119: Economics of Climate Change
in Central and West Asia (TA) seeks to address the
lack of robust evidence on the options and costs
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation)
and reduce the negative effects of climate
change (adaptation) in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan.
The TA will identify priority investments for
climate resilience and low-carbon development.
The TA will support the countries’ readiness for
leveraging public and private sector finance to
address prioritized adaptation and mitigation
investment needs.
Background & purpose

5. Component 1 Adaptation to Climate Change: -
which will assess the costs and benefits of
implementing adaptation measures to reduce the
adverse effects of climate change on energy and
water resources in the Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz
Republic, and Tajikistan; and
(Component 2 Mitigation of Climate Change: - to
assess the costs and benefits of GHG emission
reduction measures and formulate low-carbon
development investment proposals for energy
and transport in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and
Uzbekistan.)
Components

6. Output 1: will estimate the cost of climate change
adaptation for Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic,
and Tajikistan; and
Output 2: will estimate the costs and benefits of
climate change adaptation policies and
technologies in energy and water resources
sectors, by evaluating the benefits of adaptation
(avoided losses) and the cost incurred - and will
develop investment proposals in water resources
and energy sectors (a minimum of 10 per
country).
Outputs Component 1

7. ProjectDesign

8. Climate impact analysis

9. Economic analysis

10.  The main deliverable will be the economic
study, including financial flows analysis and
linked project investment proposals that are
‘investment ready’.
 Secondary deliverables include capacity
building, training and the development of a
‘knowledge product’.
Deliverables

11. Project inception phase

12. Data collection & climate modeling

13. Economic & Impact assessment

14. Adaptation & capacity

15. Team
Name Position
Peter Mackay Team/ Leader/Climate Adaptation Specialist
Alexander Mueller Economic Specialist
Philip Buckle Climate Change Specialist
Joanta Green Energy Specialist
Tim Hannan Water Resource Specialist
Mars Amanaliyev Deputy TL Kyrgyzstan/Climate Change
Rysbek Satylkanov Energy Specialist
Larisa Bazhanovaha Water Resource Specialist

16. 2015 input schedule
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Apr30-
3 Apr6-10
Apr13-
17
Apr20-
24
May27-
1
May4-
8
May11-
15
May18-
22
May25-
29 Jun1-5
Jun8-
12
Jun15-
19
Jun22-
26
Jul29-3 Jul6-10
Jul13-
17
Jul20-
24
Jul27-
31 Aug3-7
Aug10-
14
Aug17-
21
Aug24-
28 Sep31-4 Sep7-11
Sep14-
18
Sep21-
25
Oct28-
2 Oct5-9 Oct12-16
Oct19-
23
Oct26-
30 Nov2-6
Nov9-
13
Nov16-
20
Nov23-
27
Dec30-
4
Dec7-
11
Dec14-
18
Dec21-
25 Dec28-1
PeterMackay
TeamLeader/Climate
AdaptationSpecialist
8.32 3.68 12.00
AlexanderMueller Economist 6.01 2.99 9.00
JoantaGreen
ClimateImpact
AssessmentandEnergy
2.62 1.38 4.00
PhillipBuckle
ClimateChange
ScenarionSpecialist 4.16 1.84 6.00
TimothyHannan
ClimateImpact
Assessment&Water
Specialist 2.62 1.38 4.00
AKayumov ClimateChangeSpecialist(TAJ)14.16 1.84 16.00
ARasooli EnergySpecialist(AFG) 6.00 0.00 6.00
LarisaBazhanova Hydrologist(KJZ) 6.00 0.00 6.00
GhulamNasere ClimateChangeSpecialist(AFG)14.16 1.84 16.00
MarsAmanaliyev ClimateChangeSpecialist(KGZ)14.16 1.84 16.00
RysbekSatylkanov EnergySpecialist(KGZ) 6.00 0.00 6.00
SediqReshteen Hydrologist(AFG) 6.00 0.00 6.00
2015
NationalExperts
Name Position Home Field Total
MonthsInput Nov Dec
InternationalConsultants
Apr May Jun Aug Sep OctJul

17. 2016 input schedule
41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
Jan4-8
Jan11-
15
Jan18-
22
Jan25-
29 Feb1-5
Feb8-
12
Feb15-
19
Feb22-
26
Mar 29-
4 Mar 7-11
Mar 14-
18
Mar 21-
25
Mar 28-
1 Apr 4-8
Apr 11-
15
Apr 18-
22
Apr 25-
29
May2-
6
May9-
13
May16-
20
May23-
27
June30 -
3
June6 -
10
June13 -
17
June20 -
24 June27 -1 July4 -8 July11 -15
July18 -
22
PeterMackay
Team Leader/ClimateAdaptation
Specialist
8.32 3.68 12.00
AlexanderMueller Economist 6.01 2.99 9.00
JoantaGreen
ClimateImpactAssessmentand
EnergySpecialist
2.62 1.38 4.00
PhillipBuckle
ClimateChangeScenarion
Specialist 4.16 1.84 6.00
TimothyHannan
ClimateImpactAssessment&
WaterSpecialist 2.62 1.38 4.00
AbdulhamidKayumov ClimateChangeSpecialist(TAJ) 14.16 1.84 16.00
AbdullelahRasooli EnergySpecialist(AFG) 6.00 0.00 6.00
LarisaBazhanova Hydrologist(KJZ) 6.00 0.00 6.00
Ghulam Nasere ClimateChangeSpecialist(AFG) 14.16 1.84 16.00
Mars Amanaliyev ClimateChangeSpecialist(KGZ) 14.16 1.84 16.00
RysbekSatylkanov EnergySpecialist(KGZ) 6.00 0.00 6.00
SediqReshteen Hydrologist(AFG)
6.00 0.00 6.00
July
2016
NationalExperts
Apr May June
Name Position Home Field Total
MonthsInput Jan Feb Mar
InternationalConsultants

18.  Whilst the study objective is clear, it was necessary to
focus more clearly on the economic analysis
components and clarify the approach and
methodologies.
 The original study design needed to be revised in terms
of the work flows and outputs to facilitate detailed work
planning and scheduling.
 The study timeline will need to be extended (by 1-2
months) to take account of the delays in commencing
the study and mobilizing the team.
 The costs of coordinating activities across the 3 countries
is proving to be higher than previously expected, and is
likely to require additional funding resources.
Key findings Inception Phase

19.  Counterpart agencies and arrangements are in place and
working well for the most part – however, organizational
arrangements could be improved in Tajikistan.
 Data collection has commenced and is progressing slowly,
due to difficult access to official information.
 Concern exists over the availability, quality and access to
data, which could potentially compromise impact
assessment efforts.
 The level of policy development relating to adaptation
planning varies substantially between the countries, and
this will have to be taken into account when the
adaptation planning options and investment proposals are
identified and elaborated for the water and energy
sectors.
Continued …

20.  Coordination between and across the study area is
problematic, especially with regard to Afghanistan. The
inability of the international team to travel to Afghanistan
has the potential to degrade the effectiveness of the on-
ground delivery in that country and inhibit stakeholder
participation and buy-in.
 Opportunities exist to leverage information and
technology exchange through national climate change
networks.
 Opportunities exist to maintain contacts with ongoing
projects and studies, which are linked with the current
study either spatially or thematically, or both need to
explore opportunities to optimize collaboration and avoid
duplication of efforts.
Continued …

21.  Data availability: Provision should be made by the GoK to
facilitate provision of/and access to relevant data and
information wherever possible.
 Data quality: Hydro-meteorological data quality is not
consistent across all three countries and often incomplete;
this will necessitate developing a synthetic approach to
climate change scenarios.
 Capacity for economic modeling: Additional funding will
be required to be able to use the Integrated Assessment
Model PAGE and adapt it to the study area. To use this
model for this study, some adaptation is required to be
able to scale down to the country level, and expert
guidance will be needed on data collection.
Recommendations

22.  Adequacy of project resources: Project administration
in Tajikistan requires enhancement and
supplementation of technical and management skills,
which may be achieved in part by reassigning existing
resources and funding additional resources.
 Office space: It is suggested that for Tajikistan it would
be beneficial if office space could be made available
in the Ministry for Economic Development & Trade, as
this would give the project a higher profile and
presence within government.
 Coordination across countries: Additional budget is
required to cover the larger than expected costs
associated with establishing suitable arrangements that
allow the Afghan team to fully participate in the study.
Continued …

23. Inception
Workshop
SESSION II
Alexander Mueller
Philip Buckle
For RDTA 8119: Economics of Climate
Change in Central & West Asia
Bishkek 25th June 2015

24. Our approach
For the purpose of this study, we propose to take
a top-down & bottom-up approach that:
 Combines the use of an Integrated Assessment
Model (IAM) to analyze the costs of climate
change at the regional and country levels; with
 Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) for assessing the
costs and benefits of potential adaptation
measures in the water and energy sectors at
the country and local levels.

25. Economicanalysis

26. Climate scenarios
 Climate change scenarios for temperature, precipitation
(rain and snow), climate-induced extreme events, and
other climatic parameters will be reviewed for Tajikistan,
Afghanistan and the Kyrgyz Republic for different time
periods up to 2100 under different GHG emission scenarios
to identify the likelihood of exceeding manageable
thresholds.
 Time and resource constraints as well as variable data
quality will require a synthetic approach to developing
scenarios, rather than downscaling. This will be achieved
by a critical and informed review of existing scenarios at
regional and country levels and will use input from
scenarios, reports, national communications, key experts
and other credible data sources.

27. Sector analysis
The sector analysis for water and energy
sectors will:
 identify principal sector constraints;
 evaluate the lessons learned from other
climate change programs;
 compile reliable data on each sector; and
 assess policy requirements, institutional
needs, capacity building; and
 Identify future investments in the water and
energy sector.

28. Impact analysis
We will take a standard Vulnerability & Risk Assessment approach to
assessing the potential impacts and costs of climate change on water
resources and the energy sectors at the regional, national and sub-national
levels. This analysis is of impacts (e.g. floods), not climate change in itself.

29. Macro-economic modeling
 PAGE09 will be used to estimate the cost
of climate change at macro-level for
Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan up
to 2100 under different GHG emission
scenarios.
 This is the same model that was used in
the ADB Economics of Climate Change
studies for the Pacific and for South Asia.

30. Cost benefit analysis
 CBA will be used to assess the costs and benefits
of potential adaption options and measures for
the water and energy sectors at two levels.
1. At the ‘local or project specific level’: where
information on the costs and benefits of adaptation
can facilitate the design and prioritization of
adaptation strategies, programs and projects, and
provide an input into project selection; and
2. At the ‘national levels’: where the information on costs
and benefits at the project specific level is used to
assess the national adaptation financing needs and for
allocations of adaptation to allow efficient, effective
and equitable response strategies.

31. Estimating costs
 Step 1: Establish a baseline scenarios consisting of projections
of land use, water, energy, population growth, urbanization,
and other variables without climate change. This provides
the reference scenario against which the impacts of climate
change without and with adaptation will be measured.
 Step 2: Consider the relevant climate variables for the sector
and identify changes projected to 2100 for each of the
climate scenarios.
 Step 3: Identify the impact of changes in climate on
productivity, water and energy, social and health impacts
and land use.
 Step 4: Combine the information collected in Steps 2 and 3 to
estimate the overall impact of climate change on energy
use, water availability and use and production by comparing
estimates of yields and production under no climate change,
and with climate change but no adaptation.

32. Continued ….
 Step 5: Identify opportunities for autonomous adaptation
undertaken by local communities and the private sector in
responses to changes in climate and other conditions, and
planned adaptation, which is likely to be initiated and at
least partly funded by the government.
 Step 6: Estimate the benefits and costs of adaptation in the
water and energy sectors under the future climate
conditions after the adaptation measures have been
implemented (i.e. the difference between the baseline
scenario and the scenario of climate change with
adaptation), and the impact of adaptation itself (the
difference between the scenarios of climate change
without and with adaptation).
 Step 7: Incorporate the results from Step 6 into the BCA
model to assess the benefits of adaptation.

33. Investment & financial flows
analysis
 Following on from the CBA it is important that the study
also identifies options for financing and investment,
and where possible to elaborate project designs
specifically targeting international financing avenues
and opportunities.
 This will involve an examination of the Investment and
Financial Flows (IFF) for adaptation to climate change
at a country level for the two sectors (water and
energy).

34. Investment & financial flows
We will undertake a review of IFFs including:
 The total costs estimated for adaptation in the water and
energy sector calculated for 2030;
 Current and pledged funding for adaptation in the water
and energy sectors for each country as at 2015;
 Future planned investments for adaptation in the water and
energy sectors (and the relevant shortfall);
 Sources of international financial support for adaptation;
 Institutional arrangements for adaptation financing; and
 How to effectively access and promote increased funding
and investment for adaptation.

35. Inception
Workshop
SESSION III
Alexander Mueller
Mars Amanaliyev
For RDTA 8119: Economics of Climate
Change in Central & West Asia
Bishkek 25th June 2015

36. Stakeholder contributions
 Provision of data, information and support.
 Formation of working groups for project
concept elaboration (water, energy and
multi-benefit investments & proposals).

37. Stakeholder mapping

38. Primary stakeholders

39. Secondary stakeholders

40. Project elaboration
It is essential that key stakeholders are involved from
the beginning of this process. Stakeholders will be
asked to:
 Identify suitable ‘concept project’ options (i.e. a
long list of project concepts to be considered)
which can be either single sector projects or
multiple benefit project concepts;
 Select, validate and weight criteria based on
national development priorities, climate
adaptation strategies and policies;
 Evaluate and select potential investment projects
for further elaboration and CBA.

41. MCA criteria
 Effectiveness in adaptation to climate change;
 Compatibility with Government policy and/or with other
development goals;
 Institutional viability and socio-cultural acceptability;
 Technical and financial sustainability after project
implementation;
 No regret option and low regret options;
 Level of project development (concept, pre-feasibility,
feasibility, detained design);
 Potential to generate multiple-benefits such as such as
poverty alleviation, gender, emissions reduction and
carbon sequestration potentials etc.; and
 Risk (new concept, already piloted, tried & tested
elsewhere).

42. Peter Mackay (Team Leader)
petermackay99@hotmail.com
Mars Amanalyiev (Deputy Team Leader)
Mars.Amanaliev@unicon-international.com

43. Thank You
Peter, Alexander,
Philip, Joanta, Tim,
Mars, Larisa &
Rysbeck