SlideShare a Scribd company logo
China PC market update 2010
        March

        ANTONIO WANG
        RESEARCH MANAGER

© IDC                                 May-10   1
China PC Shipment and Growth,1995—2013




© IDC                                    May-10
2亿以上的PC保有量,意味着中国数字
时代的到来…

        2003年:0.5亿 2006年:1亿 2009年: 1.9亿

                   2013:3.7亿




© IDC                                     May-10
3.7亿的保有量的时候,意味着什么?


 2006 (1亿)        2010(2亿)     2014(4亿)




移动商务      虚拟化    数字转型   低碳经济
                               梦想已经成真
多核时代      整合化    可持续发   嵌入式技
                  展      术
                               新的感念进入
Printer   行业解决
 2.0       方案    云计算    智能化    过渡期


© IDC                               May-10
IT产品中消费占比逐年提升

                 全球PC消费变化趋势                                                  中国PC消费变化趋势

   80%                                                          80%
   70%
                                                                70%
   60%
                                                                60%
   50%
                                                                50%
   40%
                                                                40%
   30%
                                                                30%
   20%
                                                                20%
         2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
                                                                      2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
                      商用      消费
                                                                                   商用       消费

                                         亚太区PC消费变化趋势

                             80%
                             70%
                             60%
                             50%
                             40%
                             30%
                             20%
                                   2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

                                                商用       消费


© IDC                                                                                                     May-10
个人将拥有多台终端




             显示尺寸




© IDC               May-10
Macroeconomic




© IDC                   May-10   7
中国经济2010年的第一个关键词是
“长”,即中国GDP仍将高速增长
                 2010 China GDP Growth Forecast
12.0%
                                                           11.0%
                                                                             2010年固定资产投资增
                          10.0%           10.0%   10.0%
10.0%     9.6%                    9.50%
                                                                   9.9%      长速度仍将超过25%
                   9.0%
                                                                             2010年社会消费零售总
8.0%
                                                                             额的增长约15%左右
6.0%                                                                         2010年出口在将会恢复
                                                                             增长,但进口也会增
4.0%                                                                         加,贸易顺差比2009年
                                                                             仍将有所下滑,对GDP
2.0%                                                                         的增长贡献仍将是负值

0.0%
          EIU     World   IMF     DRC     CAS     CICC    Anbound Average
                  Bank


 •      DRC: Development Research Center of the State Council - 国务院发展研究中心
 •      CAS: China Academy of Sciences - 中科院
 •      CICC:China International Capital Corporation - 中国国际金融公司
 •      Anbound:安邦咨询公司


© IDC                                                                                 May-10   8
中国经济2010年的后2个关键词是 “涨”、“胀”,
即中国的资产和原材料价格将上涨,通货膨胀不可避
免

         受益行业(多数价格将上涨)
                                 China CPI and PPI – 2008-2010

汽车销售持                                  CPI (Consumer Price Index)
 续看好                                   PPI (Producer Price Indexes)

            钢铁、橡胶、塑      12.0

            料、汽车电子、      10.0

            零部件、能源        8.0

                          6.0
                                                                               5.0
                          4.0
                                                                               3.1
                          2.0

房地产价格不                    0.0
 会显著下降




                                 Oct/08




                                 Oct/09
                                 Dec/08




                                 Dec/09
                                 Jan/08




                                 Jun/08
                                 Jul/08




                                 Jan/09




                                 Jun/09
                                 Jul/09




                                 Jan/10
                                 2010
                                 Feb/08
                                 Mar/08
                                 Apr/08




                                 Feb/09
                                 Mar/09
                                 Apr/09
                                 Aug/08
                                 Sep/08

                                 Nov/08




                                 Aug/09
                                 Sep/09

                                 Nov/09
                                 May/08




                                 May/09
                          -2.0

            钢铁、水泥、        -4.0

            建材、家居、        -6.0

            建筑、能源         -8.0

                         -10.0


                                   Source: 国家统计局,EIU,2010.2


© IDC                                                                 May-10    9
政府主导的产业结构调整
 也将产生新的IT商机2010年宏观经济政策:从保增长到促转变
   制造业的两化(服务化和信息化)与制造业向内地的转移
        – 以信息化为依托,实现各级政府部门倡导的制造即服务(MAAS,
          Manufacture as a Service)的理念,实现云制造
        – “十二五”期间中国制造业信息化的定位是:首先为主导产业发展提供信
          息支撑与服务;其次是要从信息工具推广向提供综合信息解决方案发展;
          第三是要从设计、制造环节向产品全生命周期管理发展。其核心是围绕
          “服务增效”展开
        – 制造业向内地转移重点关注区域:安徽、河南、陕西、重庆、武汉、长沙

   推进三网融合
        – 2010年至2012年重点开展广电和电信业务双向进入试点,探索形成保障三
          网融合规范有序开展的政策体系和体制机制。
        – 2013年至2015年,总结推广试点经验,全面实现三网融合发展,普及应用
          融合业务,基本形成适度竞争的网络产业格局
        – 2010年会在10个城市试点(可能的候选城市是:杭州、深圳、上海、南京、
          广州、重庆、沈阳、武汉、成都、昆明、长沙)


© IDC                                          May-10   10
无论中国还是美国,企业对2010年的IT投资
仍较乐观
                          2009/2010 FutureScan Index Comparison
 1100                                                                                    1067   1068
                                                             1065   1063   1066   1065
                                                     1045
                                             1022
                                     1000                                                       1053
              986          979                                                    1034   1038
 1000               970                                                    1022
                                                                    1011
                                                             986
                                                     966
  900   927   942          934       943     939
                    924



  800



  700



  600



  500

                                                                    Sep




                                                                                                10-Jan
              Feb




                                              June
        Jan




                           Apr




                                                                           Oct
                                                      July


                                                              Aug




                                                                                   Nov


                                                                                         Dec
                    Mar




                                      May




                                             China            US


© IDC                            Source: IDC FutureScan, 2010.01                                 May-10   11
中国2010年IT市场由于消费IT产品的拉动,增长仍然
强劲,企业IT市场增长平稳




          China IT Market Scope:
          •PC, Peripheral, Server, Network,
          Storage, Software, Service, Other
          Add-on Hardware




© IDC        Source:: IDC Worldwide Black Book, V2009Q3 /Q4   May-10   12
9 Economic Zones




                       《黄河三角洲高效生
                       态经济区发展规划》




                   《珠江三角洲地区改
                    革发展规划纲要
                    (2008-2020)》




© IDC                         May-10   13
Key Coverage of the 9 Economic Zones

No.            Name               Coverage           Key Focus
 1      《珠江三角洲地区改革发展规划纲要   环珠江三角洲地区是指粤东、粤西、粤北及周   高科技科产业、先进制造业、
        (2008-2020)》       边省、区的相邻地区。             现代服务业
 2      《关于支持福建省加快建设海峡西岸   海峡西岸经济区东与台湾地区一水相隔,北承   对接台湾制造业、文化旅游产
        经济区的若干意见》          长江三角洲,南接珠江三角洲          业
 3      《江苏沿海地区发展规划》       江苏沿海地区地处中国沿海、沿长江和沿陇海   先进制造、生产性服务业、现
                           兰新线三大生产力布局主轴线交会区域,是长   代农业、物流业
                           江三角洲的重要组成部分
 4      《关中-天水经济区发展规划》     陕西省西安、铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、渭南、杨凌、 先进制造、现代农业
                           商洛部分县和甘肃省天水所辖行政区域
 5      《辽宁沿海经济带发展规划》      包括大连、丹东、锦州、营口、盘锦、葫芦岛   航运与物流、装备制造业
                           等沿海城市在内的辽宁沿海经济带,地处环渤
                           海地区重要位置和东北亚经济圈关键地带
 6      《横琴总体发展规划》         珠海市横琴岛地处珠江口西岸,毗邻港澳,与   高科技、旅游、现代服务业
                           澳门隔河相望
 7      《中国图们江区域合作开发规划纲要》 吉林省长春市、吉林市部分区域和延边州(简    新型工业、现代服务业、现代
                          称长吉图)是中国图们江区域的核心地区      农业
 8      《促进中部地区崛起规划》       包括山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南六   农业、能源与原材料、装备制
                           省在内的中部地区               造业、交通运输
 9      《黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规   位于渤海南部黄河入海口沿岸地区,包括山东   生态农业、旅游业
        划》                 省的东营、滨州和潍坊、德州、淄博、烟台市
                           的部分地区,共涉及19个县(市、区)



© IDC                                                        May-10   14
Form Factor




© IDC                 May-10   15
Momentum for Desktop Replacement

China PC Product Mix by Unit Shipment                                   • Notebook PC is forecasted to
                                                                          reach 51% of total China PC
                                                                          market in 2010, and it will reach
100%
                                                                          over 70% in 2014. No doubt
                                                                          Notebook PC is the key market
        16%
90%           19%   21%   22%
                                26%
                                                                          driver for the next 5 years.
                                      28%   31%   33%
80%                                                                     • It’s expected notebook PCs to
                                                                          contribute close to 60% of total
70%
                                                                          consumer PC shipments and
        44%         33%   29%
60%           41%               26%   24%   21%         Commercial NB
                                                                          almost 80% by 2014
                                                  19%

50%
                                                        Commercial DT   • While desktop PC remains
                                                        Consumer NB       significant in commercial market,
40%                                                     Consumer DT       43% of notebook PCs in 2010 and
        11%               29%
              15%   24%         31%   33%
                                                                          reaching 63% by 2014.
30%                                         36%   38%
                                                                        • With lacking of applications and
20%
        30%
                                                                          content for All-in-One (AIO) PCs,
              25%   22%                                                   forecast for AIO remains
10%                       21%
                                17%   14%   12%   10%                     conservative, but the market may
 0%                                                                       change quickly once more related
        2007 2008   2009 2010   2011 2012   2013 2014                     applications and content available




© IDC                                                                                                  May-10
Change of Forecast

Q4 09 Revised Forecast
Unit Shipm ents                                                                                                                  Grow th
New FF                  2007          2008         2009         2010         2011         2012          2013           2014      2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consum er DT           10,755,652    10,040,776   10,458,882   12,629,927   12,754,912   12,521,327    12,452,535     12,231,480   -7%    4% 21%   1%  -2%  -1%  -2%
Com m ercial DT        16,014,602    16,266,579   15,939,305   17,460,316   19,179,350   20,761,269    22,093,064     23,201,133    2%   -2% 10% 10%    8%   6%   5%
Consum er NB            3,815,762     5,922,201   11,473,596   17,383,193   22,577,595   28,944,942    36,603,195     45,753,993 55% 94% 52% 30% 28% 26% 25%
Com m ercial NB         5,615,993     7,337,549   10,069,074   13,247,771   18,708,995   24,614,578    31,725,339     40,114,366 31% 37% 32% 41% 32% 29% 26%
Total                  36,202,008    39,567,104   47,940,857   60,721,207   73,220,851   86,842,116   102,874,132    121,300,972    9% 21% 27% 21% 19% 18% 18%

Forecast on Q3 09 Result
New FF                  2007          2008         2009         2010         2011         2012          2013
Consum er DT          10,755,652     10,040,776   10,366,538   11,047,547   11,004,407   10,802,653    10,743,654
Com m ercial DT       16,014,602     16,266,579   15,898,672   16,804,104   18,993,102   20,585,965    21,920,365
Consum er NB             3,815,762    5,922,201   11,085,694   15,717,267   20,415,121   26,180,517    33,103,663
Com m ercial NB          5,615,993    7,337,549   10,103,174   12,948,530   18,540,858   24,423,246    31,513,385
Total                 36,202,008     39,567,104   47,454,078   56,517,447   68,953,487   81,992,381    97,281,067

% Change
                        2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012           2013
Consum er DT                   0%           0%           1%           14%          16%          16%            16%
Com m ercial DT                0%           0%           0%            4%           1%           1%             1%
Consum er NB                   0%           0%           3%           11%          11%          11%            11%
Com m ercial NB                0%           0%           0%            2%           1%           1%             1%
Grand Total                    0%           0%           1%            7%           6%           6%             6%



     • Q4 09 actual shipments came out 4% higher than forecast, market remains strong. Forecast
       for 2010 to 2013 increase by 6-7% with the education program and rural sales program.
     • Major changes are in consumer market for both desktop and notebook, only slight
       adjustment for commercial PCs
     • IDC estimated 2.6 millions of additional consumer desktop PCs will be shipped in 2010 with
       the government rural program. After that the growth will remain steady.
     • With the revised forecast, Notebook PCs remains strong growth.


    © IDC                                                                                                                                                May-10
AIO market forecast

            1600                                                           1,412   1,466   700%
Thousands




            1400                                                  1,304                    600%
                                                          1,183
            1200                                                                           500%
            1000                                 801                                       400%
             800
                                                                                           300%
             600                        421
             400                                                                           200%
             200                59                                                         100%
               0                                                                           0%
                              2,008    2,009    2,010     2,011   2,012    2,013   2,014

                                                   Units          Growth

                                      AIO Shipments by Comsumer VS Commercial
                                                                                                  AIO 4Q 09unit shipment share
                        160                                                                                                 Lenovo
                        140                                                                                                 Apple
                        120                                                                                                 HP
            Thousands




                        100                                                                                                 Dell
                        80                                                                                                  Founder
                        60
                                                                                                                            MSI
                        40
                                                                                                                            BenQ
                        20
                                                                                                                            Tongfang
                         0
                                                                                                                            Other
                              2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4
                                               Consumer               Commercial


                © IDC                                                                                                                 May-10   18
IDC expect that mini notebook show
mix down trend
        Mini-notebook Forecast 2008-2013




        Mini-notebook Forecast 1Q08-4Q10




© IDC                                      May-10   19
Competition by Screen Size-Summary

 As key telecom carriers move their resources into smart phone and 3G bundle program with mini
    notebook showed decreased trend so <12” market shrank in recent quarter.
 CULV development brought the market growth to 13” size market.
 14” size market always is the mainstream and gain 2 points market portion compare last year.


                                                                          Screen Size Mix
                      100%   0%       0%       0%       0%        0%       0%       1%       1%       1%       1%       1%       1%
                                                                 11%       9%       8%       8%       6%       5%       5%       5%
                             14%      13%      15%      13%
          >15.9       90%

                      80%
          15.0-15.9
                      70%

                      60%                                                                             69%      68%      68%      70%
          14.0-14.9                                                                          68%
                                                                                    71%
                             67%      69%                        75%      76%
                      50%                      69%      72%

          13.0-13.9   40%

                      30%
          12.0-12.9                                                                                            5%
                                                                                             6%       6%                8%
                      20%                                                                                      5%                8%
                             7%                                                     8%       7%       4%                4%
                                      7%       6%       6%                                                                       4%
                      10%                                        6%        7%
          <12.0              10%                                                    8%                         16%      14%
                                      9%       8%       7%       6%        6%                12%      13%                        12%
                             2%                         2%       2%        2%       5%
                       0%             1%       1%
                             2007Q1


                                      2007Q2


                                               2007Q3


                                                        2007Q4


                                                                 2008Q1


                                                                           2008Q2


                                                                                    2008Q3


                                                                                             2008Q4


                                                                                                      2009Q1


                                                                                                               2009Q2


                                                                                                                        2009Q3


                                                                                                                                 2009Q4
© IDC                                                                                                                                     May-10 20
                                                                                                                                             Page
Pressure of Price
1100

                                                                 IDC notebook vs desktop ASV trend
1000         1,014
                      991
                              954
  900
                                        862
             844
                      830
  800                                           809
                              796                         793
                                                                  762
                                                                          748
                      US$ 460                                                       733    728       724     725
  700                                   693
                                                666
                                                          636     640
  600                                                                     609
                                                                                    581
                      564     559                                                          561
             540                        535     536       544     538                                547
                                                                                    523    533       522     530
                                                                          517                                512
  500


  400
        1


                2


                         3


                                 4


                                           1


                                                     2


                                                             3


                                                                     4


                                                                             1


                                                                                      2


                                                                                                3


                                                                                                        4
       Q


                Q


                         Q


                                 Q


                                           Q


                                                   Q


                                                             Q


                                                                     Q


                                                                             Q


                                                                                      Q


                                                                                              Q


                                                                                                        Q
     08


              08


                       08


                               08


                                         09


                                                 09


                                                           09


                                                                   09


                                                                           10


                                                                                    10


                                                                                            10


                                                                                                      10
   20


            20


                     20


                             20


                                       20


                                               20


                                                         20


                                                                 20


                                                                         20


                                                                                  20


                                                                                          20


                                                                                                    20
              Consumer DT            Commercial DT         Consumer NB          Commercial NB

© IDC                                                                                                       May-10
Segment and vertical




© IDC                          May-10   22
Consumer Segment Continues to Lead
  China PC Market Growth
                            China PC Shipments Share by Segment


        100%
                             8%      7%      7%      6%      5%      5%
            11% 10%                                          4%      4%
         90%                         5%      5%      5%
                     6%      6%                      5%      4%      4%
              7%             5%      5%      5%
        80%          6%                                                   Education
           7%
        70%
                                     34% 36% 37% 39% 39%
                             35%
        60%                                                               Government
           36% 37%
        50%

        40%                                                               Large Business
                                                                          (500+)
        30%
                             46% 49% 48% 48% 48% 48%
        20%40% 40%                                                        SMB (<500)
        10%

         0%                                                               Home
            7


                    8


                            9


                                    0


                                            1


                                                    2


                                                            3


                                                                    4
         00


                00


                        00


                                01


                                        01


                                                01


                                                        01


                                                                01
        2


                2


                        2


                                2


                                        2


                                                2


                                                        2


                                                                2




© IDC                                                                                      May-10
Segment forecast analysis by desktop
Desktop                                                                                     YoY Growth

Segment                        2009       2010       2011       2012       2013       20142010/2009    2011/2010 2012/2011 2013/2012 2014/2013
Home                     10,458,882 12,629,927 12,754,912 12,521,327 12,452,535 12,231,480         21%         1%       -2%       -1%      -2%
Small Office (1-9)        4,448,448 5,008,139 5,522,697 6,082,318 6,568,904 6,991,858              13%        10%       10%        8%       6%
Small Business (10-99)    2,981,311 3,231,356 3,541,127 3,914,947 4,215,769 4,444,971               8%        10%       11%        8%       5%
Medium Business (100-499) 1,950,411 2,130,458 2,293,139 2,482,238 2,631,172 2,735,242               9%         8%        8%        6%       4%
Large Business (500-999)  1,099,797 1,196,516 1,275,826 1,369,360 1,440,836 1,475,443               9%       6.6%      7.3%      5.2%    2.40%
Very Large Business
(1000+)                     610,122    668,410    729,618    813,230    867,419    896,921         10%         9%       11%        7%    3.40%
Government                1,709,081 1,792,810 1,970,638 2,126,629 2,237,516 2,359,991               5%        10%        8%        5%       5%
Education                 3,140,136 3,432,628 3,846,305 3,972,547 4,131,448 4,296,706               9%        12%        3%        4%       4%
Grand Total              26,398,187 30,090,243 31,934,261 33,282,596 34,545,599 35,432,613         14%         6%        4%        4%       3%

SME                      9,380,169 10,369,953 11,356,963 12,479,503 13,415,845 14,172,072          11%      10%       10%        8%        6%
VLB/LB                   1,709,919 1,864,926 2,005,444 2,182,590 2,308,255 2,372,364                9%       8%        9%        6%        3%

Consumer                     40%        42%        40%        38%        36%        35%
Commercial                   60%        58%        60%        62%        64%        65%            10%      10%        8%        6%        5%
Com'l (w/o edu/gov)    11,090,087 12,234,879 13,362,407 14,662,093 15,724,099 16,544,436           10%       9%       10%        7%        5%




•Consumer Market: Go to rural market project(200k+), New CPU, new form
factor(AIO, small pc)
•SME market : The economic recovery , especial in South China. The society of
healthcare, traffic pick Up. Reduce tax police.
•VLB/LB: Budget release for large business, Telecom and big manufacture
enterprise. Smart electric fence (30K+), 卡式电表更换(15K+), intelligent traffic .
Call center
•Gov/ Edu: 远程教育3期, 文化共享工程 (120K+),公检法, 税务部门采购。
   © IDC                                                                                                                               May-10    24
Segment forecast analysis by notebook

Portable                                                                                                    YoY Growth

Segment                             2009         2010         2011         2012         2013         20142010/2009    2011/2010 2012/2011 2013/2012 2014/2013
Home                          11,473,596   17,383,193   22,577,595   28,944,942   36,603,195   45,753,993          52%       30%       28%       26%       25%
Small Office (1-9)             3,201,070    4,305,545    6,838,469    9,292,516   12,359,047   16,066,761          35%       59%       36%       33%       30%
Small Business (10-99)         2,645,036    3,567,505    5,012,168    6,899,742    9,203,285   11,780,204          35%       40%       38%       33%       28%
Medium Business (100-499)      1,669,660    2,155,170    2,868,210    3,677,107    4,633,155    5,791,443          29%       33%       28%       26%       25%
Large Business (500-999)         571,747      744,895      938,686    1,174,941    1,447,727    1,751,750          30%       26%       25%       23%       21%
Very Large Business (1000+)      313,015      406,263      491,226      562,938      645,822      768,528          30%       21%       15%       15%       19%
Government                       971,715    1,236,054    1,565,657    1,890,451    2,196,819    2,592,247          27%       27%       21%       16%       18%
Education                        696,831      832,338      994,580    1,116,883    1,239,485    1,363,434          19%       19%       12%       11%       10%
Grand Total                   21,542,670   30,630,964   41,286,589   53,559,520   68,328,533   85,868,359          42%       35%       30%       28%       26%

SME                            7,515,766   10,028,220   14,718,847   19,869,365   26,195,486   33,638,408          33%     47%       35%        32%       28%
VLB/LB                           884,762    1,151,159    1,429,912    1,737,879    2,093,548    2,520,277          30%     24%       22%        20%       20%

Consumer                           53%          57%          55%          54%          54%          53%
Commercial                         47%          43%          45%          46%          46%          47%            32%     41%       32%        29%       26%
Com'l (w/o edu/gov)                                                                                                33%     44%       34%        31%       28%

 •Consumer Market: Rural and lower tier cities , the 2nd PC user
 •SME market: 101 project for manufacture。The economic recovery. 农信社,城市商业银行
 (also buy the desktop)。Media company
 •VLB/LB: traffic project
 •Gov/ Edu: School line change to notebook. Private school . Teacher notebook market.




      © IDC                                                                                                                                     May-10   25
Vertical forecast analysis by desktop

                               The vertical desktop market forecast
 Vertical                               2008               2009               2010               2010 mix          2014               09 Growth 10 Growth
                                                                                                                                            -4%       10%
 Education                                     3,275,728          3,134,636          3,432,628              20%           4,296,706
                                                                                                                                             5%        8%
 I café                                        2,988,706          3,131,711          3,378,483              19%           4,348,953
                                                                                                                                           -11%        8%
 Manufacture                                   3,097,099          2,765,812          2,979,226              17%           3,780,117
                                                                                                                                             0%        5%
 Government                                    1,701,970          1,703,548          1,792,810              10%           2,359,991
                                                                                                                                            -5%        9%
 Other Services                                1,238,177          1,172,919          1,281,321               7%           1,759,098
                                                                                                                                            -2%       13%
 Telecom                                       1,068,134          1,049,928          1,188,385               7%           1,646,612
                                                                                                                                            -1%       12%
 Finance                                       1,001,809           987,624           1,106,598               6%           1,539,881
                                                                                                                                            20%       24%
 Healthcare                                     391,917            468,967            582,802                3%            921,700
                                                                                                                                             2%       17%
 Agriculture, Construction and Mining           372,425            380,446            446,272                3%            657,531
                                                                                                                                            -4%       12%
 Retail & Wholesales                            365,350            349,204            390,054                2%            561,759
                                                                                                                                            -6%        8%
 Media                                          319,948            300,948            323,920                2%            467,782
                                                                                                                                            -1%       16%
 Utilities                                      289,514            287,334            332,910                2%            485,823
                                                                                                                                            12%       29%
 Transportation                                 155,803            174,139            224,908                1%            375,182
                                         16,266,579         15,907,216         17,460,316                   100%    23,201,133              -2%       10%
 Total Business Desktop



© IDC                                                                                                                                             May-10    26
Vertical forecast analysis by notebook

                           The vertical notebook market forecast
 Vertical                               2008               2009               2010               2010mix 2014                09 Growth 10 Growth

                                                                                                      28%                          35%        29%
 Manufacture                                   2,163,410          2,914,345          3,768,222                  11,725,907

                                                                                                      20%                          37%        34%
 Other Services                                1,443,927          1,983,854          2,651,906                   8,460,988

                                                                                                      10%                          43%        35%
 Telecom                                        665,396            953,790           1,289,112                   4,148,803

                                                                                                       9%                          47%        34%
 Finance                                        633,765            930,790           1,247,000                   4,120,977

                                                                                                       9%                          26%        27%
 Government                                     771,567            971,053           1,236,054                   2,592,247

                                                                                                       6%                          30%        20%
 Education                                      537,502            696,101            832,338                    1,363,434

                                                                                                       5%                          46%        35%
 Media                                          310,810            452,325            610,015                    2,044,281

                                                                                                       3%                          48%        42%
 Healthcare                                     212,287            315,201            448,700                    1,623,792

                                                                                                       3%                          36%        35%
 Retail & Wholesales                            234,404            317,827            428,299                    1,466,425

                                                                                                       2%                          41%        36%
 Utilities                                      144,358            203,315            276,271                     935,207

                                                                                                       2%                          49%        37%
 Agriculture, Construction and Mining           132,402            197,478            271,417                     924,972

                                                                                                       1%                          48%        45%
 Transportation                                  87,722            129,834            188,437                     707,333

                                          7,337,549         10,065,913         13,247,771            100%   40,114,366             37%        32%
 Total Business notebook


© IDC                                                                                                                                    May-10    27
Vendors analysis




© IDC                      May-10   28
PC Market Summary

   *,*,* : shipment M, share, YOY growth
                                                                                                                                                    Total PC CY2009
   Very Large: >1000 employees
   Large: 500-999 employees                                                                                                                         48.0,100%,21.3%
   Mid: 100-499 employees
   Small Biz: 10-99 employees
   Small Office: 1-9 employees                                                                     Commercial                                                                                              Consumer
                                                                                                      26.0,                                                                                               22.0, 45.7%,
                                                                                                  54.3%,10.3%                                                                                                37.4%


                                                                                                                                                                                                  MNA              Named
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SBC
                                                                                                                                                                                                  14.5,             3.3,
                                     MNC                                                                          local                                             others                                                         4.2, 18.9%,
                                                                                                                                                                                              66.1%,               15.0%,
                                     18.1,                                                                     3.6, 13.9%,                                       4.3, 16.7%, -                                                       -7.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                              63.2%                27.7%
                                 69.4%,20.9%                                                                      1.7%                                              14.7%

                                                                                                                                                                                     Lenovo/Dell
                                                                                                                                                                                      /HP/Asus            Others
                                                                                                                                                                                          /Acer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Top     Top      Other
                                                                                                                                                                                          13.0,             1.6,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30      600        s
                                                                                                                                                                                          89.1%,          10.9%,
               Lenovo/Dell/HP                                                                                                                                                             59.6%           100.3%
                                                                                            Founder                                  Others                Top     Top
                 /Asus/Acer                            Others                                                                                                              Others
                                                                                           2.6, 73.4%,                            1.0, 26.6%, -             30     600
                16.8,93.1%,                       1.3, 6.9%, 13.3%
                                                                                             17.2%                                   24.1%                                                                   Founder    Others
                  21.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               1.0,         2.3,
                                                                                                                                                                                                             31.1%,     68.9%,
                                                                                                                                                                                                              32.9%     25.4%



                Very                      Small Small                             Very                          Small   Small                                    Very                      Small Small
 Edu    Gov     Large   Large     Mid      Biz  Office           Edu       Gov    Large     Large      Mid       Biz    Office                    Edu      Gov Large Large          Mid     Biz Office
 2.1,   2.1,   0.8,      1.4,     2.9,     3.7,  3.8,            1.0,      0.4,    0.06,     1.4,      3.4,      4.3,    2.4,                     0.2,     0.03, 0.02 0.05,         0.2     0.9,  3.0,
12.8%, 12.4%, 4.9%,     8.4%, 17.0%, 22.2%, 22.3%,           36.9%, 16.3%, 2.3%,            5.4%, 13.1%, 16.7%, 9.2%,                             4.8%, 0.6%, 0.4%, 1.1%, 3.9%, 19.7%, 69.6%,
 6.2% 11.3% 7.9%        5.2%    16.8% 29.9% 49.2%                10.8% 16.9% 27.4%          9.5%     13.2% 24.2% 49.9%                           -23.6% -42.0% -17.4% -19.9% -27.1% -17.6% -11.8%




                                Very                     Small    Small                                       Very                       Small    Small
               Edu      Gov     Large    Large    Mid     Biz     Office                   Edu      Gov       Large Large        Mid      Biz     Office
               0.05,    0.06,    0.03,    0.08,   0.2,    0.4,     0.4,                    0.4,     0.08,     0.005, 0.006,      0.06,    0.3,     0.2,
               3.9%, 4.9%, 2.8%, 6.2%, 14.8%, 34.2%, 33.2%,                            46.5%, 8.1%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 6.3%, 17.2%, 20.9%,
               21.4% -5.7% 15.2% 11.3% 20.2% 11.7% 14.8%                               -22.8% -32.4% -60.8% -58.6% -29.9% -31.0% -9.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: IDC

 © IDC                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May-10Slide 29
Desktop Market Competitive Analysis
  Commercial DT Market by Vendor Share                                       Consumer DT Market by Vendor Share

100%                                                                        100%                                              Lenovo
                                                               Lenovo
 90%                                                                        90%      21%               22% 24% 23%            HP
        27% 29%         28% 30%                                                            25% 23% 24%             26%
                31% 33%         33%
                                                               Founder
                                                         37%
 80%                                                                        80%                                               Founder
                                                               HP
                                                                                     11%
                                                                                           7%   9%   8% 10% 10% 13%           Dell
 70%                                                                        70%                                          9%
        13% 12%                                                Dell
                                    16% 14%                                          7%    6%   6%   6%   6%
                      12%                                                                                      7%
                             13%                  14%                                                               7%   8%   Haier
 60%
                                                               Tongfang
                                                                            60%
        7%     8%                                        14%
                      9%                                                                                                      Tongfang
                                    9%     11%
 50%                         8%
                                                               Acer.        50%
                                                  15%
                                                         11%                                                                  Acer.
 40%                                                           Haier        40%
                                                                                                                              Apple
 30%                                                           Apple        30%
                                                                                                                              Hasee
                                                               Asus                  45% 47% 47% 48% 45% 43%
 20%                                                                        20%
        33% 34% 30% 31% 31% 31%                                                                                     37% 37%
                                                                                                                              MSI
                                                  26% 23%      Great Wall
 10%                                                                        10%
                                                                                                                              Others
                                                               Others
  0%                                                                         0%
       Q1

            Q2

                 Q3

                           Q4

                                Q1

                                      Q2

                                             Q3

                                                    Q4




                                                                                   20 1

                                                                                   20 2

                                                                                   20 3

                                                                                   20 4

                                                                                   20 1

                                                                                   20 2

                                                                                   20 3
                                                                                        Q4
                                                                                        Q

                                                                                        Q

                                                                                        Q

                                                                                        Q

                                                                                        Q

                                                                                        Q

                                                                                        Q
   08

          08

                 08

                        08

                               09

                                      09

                                             09

                                                    09




                                                                                08

                                                                                     08

                                                                                     08

                                                                                     08

                                                                                     09

                                                                                     09

                                                                                     09

                                                                                     09
 20

        20

               20

                      20

                             20

                                    20

                                           20

                                                  20




                                                                              20




  © IDC                                                                                                                       May-10
Portable Market Competitive Analysis
       Portable Market by Vendor Share                        MiniNotebook Market by Vendor Share

100%                                                         100%                                                   Asus
                                                   Lenovo
                                                                                             14% 12%
                                                                                       17%               18% 18%
 90%                                                         90%                                                    Lenovo
       27%               28% 30% 30%               HP
             31% 33% 32%
                                     34%
                                                                                                   14%
 80%                                                         80%                                                    Hasee
                                                   Asus                          45%
                                                                                             21%              14%
                                                                                                   5% 21%           HP
 70%
                                                   Dell
                                                             70%                       29%

       19%                                                                                                    11%
                           19%                                                               7%                     Dell
 60%         18% 17% 16%         19%
                                       23%         Acer      60%           84%
                                                                                                         5%
                                             19%
                                                                                       4%                           Samsung
 50%                                               Samsung   50%    100%
                                                                                 19%
                                                                                                                    Sony
 40%                                               Hasee     40%
                                                                                 1%
                                                                                                                    Toshiba
 30%                                               Sony      30%
                                                                                                                    Acer
                                                   Toshiba
 20%                                                         20%
                                                                           0%                                       Founder
                                                   Founder
 10%                                                         10%                             18% 18%
                                                                                                                    Others
                                                   Others                              9%                10% 10%
  0%                                                          0%    0%
                                                                    0%     0% 1%
20 1

20 2

20 3

20 4

20 1

20 2

20 3
     Q4




                                                               20 1

                                                               20 2

                                                               20 3

                                                               20 4

                                                               20 1

                                                               20 2

                                                               20 3
                                                                    Q4
     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q




                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q
  08

  08

  08

  08

  09

  09

  09

  09




                                                                 08

                                                                 08

                                                                 08

                                                                 08

                                                                 09

                                                                 09

                                                                 09

                                                                 09
20




                                                               20




  © IDC                                                                                                             May-10
Portable Market Competitive Analysis
  Consumer NB Market by Vendor Share                         Commercial NB Market by Vendor Share

100%                                                         100%                                                 Lenovo
                                                   Lenovo
 90%                                                         90%                                                  HP
       24%                   23%
             27% 29% 28%           25% 27%                          29%
                                             30%   HP                     34% 36% 36% 33% 36% 34%
 80%                                                         80%                                            39%   Asus
                                                   Dell

 70%                                                         70%                                                  Dell
                             17%
                                                   Asus
       22%             16%         18%
                                                                    16%
             21% 18%                                                                                              Acer
 60%                                     23% 17%             60%          16%
                                                   Hasee                        16% 16% 22%
                                                                                                21% 24%           Sony
 50%                                                         50%    12%
                                                                                                            21%
                                                   Samsung
                                                                          10%
                                                                                11% 10%                           Samsung
 40%                                               Acer
                                                             40%                          10%
                                                                                                10%
                                                                                                      14%
                                                                                                            12%   Toshiba
 30%                                               Sony      30%
                                                                                                                  Founder

 20%                                               Toshiba   20%
                                                                                                                  Apple

 10%
                                                   Haier     10%
                                                                                                                  Others
                                                   Others           5% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% 3%
  0%
                                                              0%
                                                               20 1

                                                               20 2

                                                               20 3

                                                               20 4

                                                               20 1

                                                               20 2

                                                               20 3
                                                                    Q4
                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q

                                                                    Q
20 1

20 2

20 3

20 4

20 1

20 2

20 3
     Q4
     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q




                                                                 08

                                                                 08

                                                                 08

                                                                 08

                                                                 09

                                                                 09

                                                                 09

                                                                 09
  08

  08

  08

  08

  09

  09

  09

  09




                                                               20
20




 © IDC                                                                                                            May-10
Geography (city level, provincial)




© IDC                                        May-10   33
The Pursuit Of Parity – PC Market
Cities nearer to the coast have higher PC
penetration than in rural areas
         Only 2 China Provinces have
        achieved high penetration rate




                                         These provinces have large household
                                           base. However, PC IB is still low.
© Source:
   IDC      IDC, 2009                                                    May-10
Shipments to Rural Areas
                        IDC大陆PC市场下乡项目预测                                                                        大陆PC市场各城市级别出货量同比增长率
            800                                                         709       708   30%
Thousands




            700                                     616       642
            600
                                                                                                                                                                     Tier5
                                468       492
            500
            400
            300
            200       130
            100                                                                         20%
              0
                    2



                            3



                                      4



                                                  1



                                                          2



                                                                    3



                                                                              4
                  Q



                            Q



                                      Q



                                                Q



                                                          Q



                                                                    Q



                                                                              Q
              09



                        09



                                  09



                                            10



                                                      10



                                                                10



                                                                          10
              0



                        0



                                 0



                                            0



                                                      0



                                                               0



                                                                         0
             2



                        2



                                2



                                           2



                                                      2



                                                              2



                                                                        2

                                      PC下乡销售量


                                                                                        10%
                  2009Q3PC下乡项目市场份额(引用政府公布信息)


                                  Others
                                 HP
                                                                                                                                                               Tier2
                        Tongfang 2%3%
                          10%

                                                                Lenovo
                                                                                         0%
                                                                 40%
                                                                                                1


                                                                                                          2


                                                                                                                    3


                                                                                                                              4


                                                                                                                                        1


                                                                                                                                                  2


                                                                                                                                                            3


                                                                                                                                                                      4


                                                                                                                                                                                1


                                                                                                                                                                                          2


                                                                                                                                                                                                    3


                                                                                                                                                                                                              4
                    Founder
                                                                                               Q


                                                                                                         Q


                                                                                                                   Q


                                                                                                                             Q


                                                                                                                                       Q


                                                                                                                                                 Q


                                                                                                                                                           Q


                                                                                                                                                                     Q


                                                                                                                                                                               Q


                                                                                                                                                                                         Q


                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q


                                                                                                                                                                                                             Q
                                                                                           08


                                                                                                     08


                                                                                                               08


                                                                                                                         08


                                                                                                                                   09


                                                                                                                                             09


                                                                                                                                                       09


                                                                                                                                                                 09


                                                                                                                                                                           10


                                                                                                                                                                                     10


                                                                                                                                                                                                  10


                                                                                                                                                                                                         10
                      19%
                                                                                         20


                                                                                                    20


                                                                                                              20


                                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                                                  20


                                                                                                                                            20


                                                                                                                                                      20


                                                                                                                                                                20


                                                                                                                                                                          20


                                                                                                                                                                                    20


                                                                                                                                                                                              20


                                                                                                                                                                                                        20
                                          Haier
                                                                                        -10%
                                          26%

                                                                                                                    1                  2                   3              4                   5               6

            © IDC                                                                                                                                                                                 May-10      35
Tier 4-6 and rural market are the future


                                                                                    1H 09 PC      2013 Forecast PC
2009 vs.2013 Tier 1-6 Cities Market Share                            Household   Installed Base   Installed Base per
                                                                                   per 100 HH           100 HH
 100%
              9%               11%
                                                        Rural         155M             0.1              5.7
  90%

             16%
  80%                          21%

  70%                                                  Tier 4-5                                         12.8
                                                                       95M             1.2
             17%                                        Cities
                                            Tier 6
  60%                          19%          Tier 5
                                            Tier 4
  50%
             22%                            Tier 3
                                            Tier 2
  40%                          21%
                                            Tier 1     Tier 2-3
                                                        Cities         50M             13.5             50.6
  30%        10%
                               9%
  20%

             25%
  10%                          19%
                                                     Tier 1 Cities     30M             31.1             75.7
   0%
             2008              2013



 © IDC                                                                                                  May-10   36
Contact Me



         Thank you!
             Please email me at
              anwang@idc.com
             王吉平




 © IDC                            May-10

More Related Content

What's hot

Special BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social Media
Special BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social MediaSpecial BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social Media
Special BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social Media
Julie Hansen
 
Do the baltics deserve a second look peeter piho
Do the baltics deserve a second look   peeter pihoDo the baltics deserve a second look   peeter piho
Do the baltics deserve a second look peeter piho
EstVCA
 
Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)
Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)
Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)
NEXT Conference
 
The labor market surprises
The labor market surprisesThe labor market surprises
The labor market surprises
Banco Pine
 
Indian economy globalisation
Indian economy globalisationIndian economy globalisation
Indian economy globalisation
kapil Gera
 
Lessons from Latvia's internal adjustment
Lessons from Latvia's internal adjustmentLessons from Latvia's internal adjustment
Lessons from Latvia's internal adjustment
Latvijas Banka
 
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
Robert Rodenbaugh
 
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Dunglt
 
Metso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentation
Metso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentationMetso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentation
Metso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentation
Metso Group
 
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian Economy
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian EconomyPeeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian Economy
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian Economy
Eesti Pank
 
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milan
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 MilanThe Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milan
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milan
gdonnini
 
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
fb18077
 
(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...
(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...
(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...
PM, poslovni mediji
 
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic Indicators
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsE-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic Indicators
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic Indicators
Ecofin Surge
 
Race for supply chain 2020
Race for supply chain 2020 Race for supply chain 2020
Race for supply chain 2020
Lora Cecere
 
Industrial strategy master presentation
Industrial strategy master presentationIndustrial strategy master presentation
Industrial strategy master presentation
bisgovuk
 
Novozymes Trend Posters
Novozymes Trend PostersNovozymes Trend Posters
Novozymes Trend Posters
Stefan Lindegaard
 
Global Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Global Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. ChrisbaumGlobal Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Global Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Bronwen Elizabeth Madden
 
Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402
 Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402  Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402
Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402
Willis Wee
 
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund
sinocismblog
 

What's hot (20)

Special BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social Media
Special BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social MediaSpecial BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social Media
Special BI Intelligence Presentation: Cracking The Mobile Code In Social Media
 
Do the baltics deserve a second look peeter piho
Do the baltics deserve a second look   peeter pihoDo the baltics deserve a second look   peeter piho
Do the baltics deserve a second look peeter piho
 
Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)
Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)
Presentation by Per Roman (GP Bullhound)
 
The labor market surprises
The labor market surprisesThe labor market surprises
The labor market surprises
 
Indian economy globalisation
Indian economy globalisationIndian economy globalisation
Indian economy globalisation
 
Lessons from Latvia's internal adjustment
Lessons from Latvia's internal adjustmentLessons from Latvia's internal adjustment
Lessons from Latvia's internal adjustment
 
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
Economic Update Philadelphia 2012
 
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
Vietnam Retail Market, 2012
 
Metso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentation
Metso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentationMetso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentation
Metso Interim Review January-June 2012 presentation
 
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian Economy
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian EconomyPeeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian Economy
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian Economy
 
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milan
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 MilanThe Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milan
The Brasilian Ict Market 9 10 Nov. 2005 Milan
 
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
 
(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...
(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...
(POMP Forum 2012) Patrick Fuller & Julia Hutchison: Vsebinski marketing v raz...
 
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic Indicators
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsE-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic Indicators
E-Updates_Apr12—Indian & Global Economic Indicators
 
Race for supply chain 2020
Race for supply chain 2020 Race for supply chain 2020
Race for supply chain 2020
 
Industrial strategy master presentation
Industrial strategy master presentationIndustrial strategy master presentation
Industrial strategy master presentation
 
Novozymes Trend Posters
Novozymes Trend PostersNovozymes Trend Posters
Novozymes Trend Posters
 
Global Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Global Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. ChrisbaumGlobal Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Global Business Solutions (GBS) by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
 
Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402
 Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402  Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402
Startup asia thai_startup_eco_mimee_20130402
 
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fund
 

Similar to China pc market idc

Media landscape updater i 2012
Media landscape updater i 2012Media landscape updater i 2012
Media landscape updater i 2012
MediaDirectionOMD
 
Bruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEcon
Bruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEconBruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEcon
Bruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEcon
taitken1
 
Internet presentation q1_2010
Internet presentation q1_2010Internet presentation q1_2010
Internet presentation q1_2010
SKF
 
India Market Reflections (2008-12)
India Market Reflections (2008-12)India Market Reflections (2008-12)
India Market Reflections (2008-12)
Saurabh Kumar
 
Media landscape updater - 2011 summary
Media landscape updater - 2011 summaryMedia landscape updater - 2011 summary
Media landscape updater - 2011 summary
MediaDirectionOMD
 
The Scandinavian mobile app market
The Scandinavian mobile app marketThe Scandinavian mobile app market
The Scandinavian mobile app market
Espen Riskedal
 
Why chile?
Why chile?Why chile?
Why chile?
Sebastian Landgren
 
Cloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs Perspective
Cloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs PerspectiveCloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs Perspective
Cloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs Perspective
Zinnov
 
Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010
Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010
Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010
Angel Broking
 
Skf internet presentation_q22010
Skf internet presentation_q22010Skf internet presentation_q22010
Skf internet presentation_q22010
SKF
 
Embraer day nyc 2010 aviação executiva
Embraer day nyc 2010   aviação executivaEmbraer day nyc 2010   aviação executiva
Embraer day nyc 2010 aviação executiva
Embraer RI
 
Eupdts mar11
Eupdts mar11Eupdts mar11
Eupdts mar11
TheSurgers
 
Eupdts Mar11
Eupdts Mar11Eupdts Mar11
Eupdts Mar11
Ecofin Surge
 
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic Indicators
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsEupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic Indicators
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic Indicators
Ecofin Surge
 
E-UpDates_Mar11
E-UpDates_Mar11E-UpDates_Mar11
E-UpDates_Mar11
Ecofin Surge
 
An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
Intergen
 
A Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 Slideshare
A Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 SlideshareA Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 Slideshare
A Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 Slideshare
André Echeverria
 
Neli Vacheva - IDC
Neli Vacheva - IDCNeli Vacheva - IDC
Neli Vacheva - IDC
Ivo_Dreshkov
 
Why you should Invest in Chile?
Why you should Invest in Chile?Why you should Invest in Chile?
Why you should Invest in Chile?
Sebastian Landgren
 
12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation
12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation
12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation
m_gill
 

Similar to China pc market idc (20)

Media landscape updater i 2012
Media landscape updater i 2012Media landscape updater i 2012
Media landscape updater i 2012
 
Bruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEcon
Bruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEconBruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEcon
Bruce Morton's Talent Landscape Presentation to MassEcon
 
Internet presentation q1_2010
Internet presentation q1_2010Internet presentation q1_2010
Internet presentation q1_2010
 
India Market Reflections (2008-12)
India Market Reflections (2008-12)India Market Reflections (2008-12)
India Market Reflections (2008-12)
 
Media landscape updater - 2011 summary
Media landscape updater - 2011 summaryMedia landscape updater - 2011 summary
Media landscape updater - 2011 summary
 
The Scandinavian mobile app market
The Scandinavian mobile app marketThe Scandinavian mobile app market
The Scandinavian mobile app market
 
Why chile?
Why chile?Why chile?
Why chile?
 
Cloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs Perspective
Cloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs PerspectiveCloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs Perspective
Cloud Opportunities in India – a CIOs Perspective
 
Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010
Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010
Angel Broking Strategy - April 2010
 
Skf internet presentation_q22010
Skf internet presentation_q22010Skf internet presentation_q22010
Skf internet presentation_q22010
 
Embraer day nyc 2010 aviação executiva
Embraer day nyc 2010   aviação executivaEmbraer day nyc 2010   aviação executiva
Embraer day nyc 2010 aviação executiva
 
Eupdts mar11
Eupdts mar11Eupdts mar11
Eupdts mar11
 
Eupdts Mar11
Eupdts Mar11Eupdts Mar11
Eupdts Mar11
 
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic Indicators
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic IndicatorsEupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic Indicators
Eupdts March11-Indian & Global Economic Indicators
 
E-UpDates_Mar11
E-UpDates_Mar11E-UpDates_Mar11
E-UpDates_Mar11
 
An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
 
A Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 Slideshare
A Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 SlideshareA Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 Slideshare
A Echeverria Channel Focus Segmentation And Coverage Models 4 Slideshare
 
Neli Vacheva - IDC
Neli Vacheva - IDCNeli Vacheva - IDC
Neli Vacheva - IDC
 
Why you should Invest in Chile?
Why you should Invest in Chile?Why you should Invest in Chile?
Why you should Invest in Chile?
 
12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation
12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation
12.02.07 Retail Overview Turkey E&amp;Y Presentation
 

China pc market idc

  • 1. China PC market update 2010 March ANTONIO WANG RESEARCH MANAGER © IDC May-10 1
  • 2. China PC Shipment and Growth,1995—2013 © IDC May-10
  • 3. 2亿以上的PC保有量,意味着中国数字 时代的到来… 2003年:0.5亿 2006年:1亿 2009年: 1.9亿 2013:3.7亿 © IDC May-10
  • 4. 3.7亿的保有量的时候,意味着什么? 2006 (1亿) 2010(2亿) 2014(4亿) 移动商务 虚拟化 数字转型 低碳经济 梦想已经成真 多核时代 整合化 可持续发 嵌入式技 展 术 新的感念进入 Printer 行业解决 2.0 方案 云计算 智能化 过渡期 © IDC May-10
  • 5. IT产品中消费占比逐年提升 全球PC消费变化趋势 中国PC消费变化趋势 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 商用 消费 商用 消费 亚太区PC消费变化趋势 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 商用 消费 © IDC May-10
  • 6. 个人将拥有多台终端 显示尺寸 © IDC May-10
  • 8. 中国经济2010年的第一个关键词是 “长”,即中国GDP仍将高速增长 2010 China GDP Growth Forecast 12.0% 11.0%  2010年固定资产投资增 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.6% 9.50% 9.9% 长速度仍将超过25% 9.0%  2010年社会消费零售总 8.0% 额的增长约15%左右 6.0%  2010年出口在将会恢复 增长,但进口也会增 4.0% 加,贸易顺差比2009年 仍将有所下滑,对GDP 2.0% 的增长贡献仍将是负值 0.0% EIU World IMF DRC CAS CICC Anbound Average Bank • DRC: Development Research Center of the State Council - 国务院发展研究中心 • CAS: China Academy of Sciences - 中科院 • CICC:China International Capital Corporation - 中国国际金融公司 • Anbound:安邦咨询公司 © IDC May-10 8
  • 9. 中国经济2010年的后2个关键词是 “涨”、“胀”, 即中国的资产和原材料价格将上涨,通货膨胀不可避 免 受益行业(多数价格将上涨) China CPI and PPI – 2008-2010 汽车销售持 CPI (Consumer Price Index) 续看好 PPI (Producer Price Indexes) 钢铁、橡胶、塑 12.0 料、汽车电子、 10.0 零部件、能源 8.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.1 2.0 房地产价格不 0.0 会显著下降 Oct/08 Oct/09 Dec/08 Dec/09 Jan/08 Jun/08 Jul/08 Jan/09 Jun/09 Jul/09 Jan/10 2010 Feb/08 Mar/08 Apr/08 Feb/09 Mar/09 Apr/09 Aug/08 Sep/08 Nov/08 Aug/09 Sep/09 Nov/09 May/08 May/09 -2.0 钢铁、水泥、 -4.0 建材、家居、 -6.0 建筑、能源 -8.0 -10.0 Source: 国家统计局,EIU,2010.2 © IDC May-10 9
  • 10. 政府主导的产业结构调整 也将产生新的IT商机2010年宏观经济政策:从保增长到促转变  制造业的两化(服务化和信息化)与制造业向内地的转移 – 以信息化为依托,实现各级政府部门倡导的制造即服务(MAAS, Manufacture as a Service)的理念,实现云制造 – “十二五”期间中国制造业信息化的定位是:首先为主导产业发展提供信 息支撑与服务;其次是要从信息工具推广向提供综合信息解决方案发展; 第三是要从设计、制造环节向产品全生命周期管理发展。其核心是围绕 “服务增效”展开 – 制造业向内地转移重点关注区域:安徽、河南、陕西、重庆、武汉、长沙  推进三网融合 – 2010年至2012年重点开展广电和电信业务双向进入试点,探索形成保障三 网融合规范有序开展的政策体系和体制机制。 – 2013年至2015年,总结推广试点经验,全面实现三网融合发展,普及应用 融合业务,基本形成适度竞争的网络产业格局 – 2010年会在10个城市试点(可能的候选城市是:杭州、深圳、上海、南京、 广州、重庆、沈阳、武汉、成都、昆明、长沙) © IDC May-10 10
  • 11. 无论中国还是美国,企业对2010年的IT投资 仍较乐观 2009/2010 FutureScan Index Comparison 1100 1067 1068 1065 1063 1066 1065 1045 1022 1000 1053 986 979 1034 1038 1000 970 1022 1011 986 966 900 927 942 934 943 939 924 800 700 600 500 Sep 10-Jan Feb June Jan Apr Oct July Aug Nov Dec Mar May China US © IDC Source: IDC FutureScan, 2010.01 May-10 11
  • 12. 中国2010年IT市场由于消费IT产品的拉动,增长仍然 强劲,企业IT市场增长平稳 China IT Market Scope: •PC, Peripheral, Server, Network, Storage, Software, Service, Other Add-on Hardware © IDC Source:: IDC Worldwide Black Book, V2009Q3 /Q4 May-10 12
  • 13. 9 Economic Zones 《黄河三角洲高效生 态经济区发展规划》 《珠江三角洲地区改 革发展规划纲要 (2008-2020)》 © IDC May-10 13
  • 14. Key Coverage of the 9 Economic Zones No. Name Coverage Key Focus 1 《珠江三角洲地区改革发展规划纲要 环珠江三角洲地区是指粤东、粤西、粤北及周 高科技科产业、先进制造业、 (2008-2020)》 边省、区的相邻地区。 现代服务业 2 《关于支持福建省加快建设海峡西岸 海峡西岸经济区东与台湾地区一水相隔,北承 对接台湾制造业、文化旅游产 经济区的若干意见》 长江三角洲,南接珠江三角洲 业 3 《江苏沿海地区发展规划》 江苏沿海地区地处中国沿海、沿长江和沿陇海 先进制造、生产性服务业、现 兰新线三大生产力布局主轴线交会区域,是长 代农业、物流业 江三角洲的重要组成部分 4 《关中-天水经济区发展规划》 陕西省西安、铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、渭南、杨凌、 先进制造、现代农业 商洛部分县和甘肃省天水所辖行政区域 5 《辽宁沿海经济带发展规划》 包括大连、丹东、锦州、营口、盘锦、葫芦岛 航运与物流、装备制造业 等沿海城市在内的辽宁沿海经济带,地处环渤 海地区重要位置和东北亚经济圈关键地带 6 《横琴总体发展规划》 珠海市横琴岛地处珠江口西岸,毗邻港澳,与 高科技、旅游、现代服务业 澳门隔河相望 7 《中国图们江区域合作开发规划纲要》 吉林省长春市、吉林市部分区域和延边州(简 新型工业、现代服务业、现代 称长吉图)是中国图们江区域的核心地区 农业 8 《促进中部地区崛起规划》 包括山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南六 农业、能源与原材料、装备制 省在内的中部地区 造业、交通运输 9 《黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规 位于渤海南部黄河入海口沿岸地区,包括山东 生态农业、旅游业 划》 省的东营、滨州和潍坊、德州、淄博、烟台市 的部分地区,共涉及19个县(市、区) © IDC May-10 14
  • 15. Form Factor © IDC May-10 15
  • 16. Momentum for Desktop Replacement China PC Product Mix by Unit Shipment • Notebook PC is forecasted to reach 51% of total China PC market in 2010, and it will reach 100% over 70% in 2014. No doubt Notebook PC is the key market 16% 90% 19% 21% 22% 26% driver for the next 5 years. 28% 31% 33% 80% • It’s expected notebook PCs to contribute close to 60% of total 70% consumer PC shipments and 44% 33% 29% 60% 41% 26% 24% 21% Commercial NB almost 80% by 2014 19% 50% Commercial DT • While desktop PC remains Consumer NB significant in commercial market, 40% Consumer DT 43% of notebook PCs in 2010 and 11% 29% 15% 24% 31% 33% reaching 63% by 2014. 30% 36% 38% • With lacking of applications and 20% 30% content for All-in-One (AIO) PCs, 25% 22% forecast for AIO remains 10% 21% 17% 14% 12% 10% conservative, but the market may 0% change quickly once more related 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 applications and content available © IDC May-10
  • 17. Change of Forecast Q4 09 Revised Forecast Unit Shipm ents Grow th New FF 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consum er DT 10,755,652 10,040,776 10,458,882 12,629,927 12,754,912 12,521,327 12,452,535 12,231,480 -7% 4% 21% 1% -2% -1% -2% Com m ercial DT 16,014,602 16,266,579 15,939,305 17,460,316 19,179,350 20,761,269 22,093,064 23,201,133 2% -2% 10% 10% 8% 6% 5% Consum er NB 3,815,762 5,922,201 11,473,596 17,383,193 22,577,595 28,944,942 36,603,195 45,753,993 55% 94% 52% 30% 28% 26% 25% Com m ercial NB 5,615,993 7,337,549 10,069,074 13,247,771 18,708,995 24,614,578 31,725,339 40,114,366 31% 37% 32% 41% 32% 29% 26% Total 36,202,008 39,567,104 47,940,857 60,721,207 73,220,851 86,842,116 102,874,132 121,300,972 9% 21% 27% 21% 19% 18% 18% Forecast on Q3 09 Result New FF 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Consum er DT 10,755,652 10,040,776 10,366,538 11,047,547 11,004,407 10,802,653 10,743,654 Com m ercial DT 16,014,602 16,266,579 15,898,672 16,804,104 18,993,102 20,585,965 21,920,365 Consum er NB 3,815,762 5,922,201 11,085,694 15,717,267 20,415,121 26,180,517 33,103,663 Com m ercial NB 5,615,993 7,337,549 10,103,174 12,948,530 18,540,858 24,423,246 31,513,385 Total 36,202,008 39,567,104 47,454,078 56,517,447 68,953,487 81,992,381 97,281,067 % Change 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Consum er DT 0% 0% 1% 14% 16% 16% 16% Com m ercial DT 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% 1% 1% Consum er NB 0% 0% 3% 11% 11% 11% 11% Com m ercial NB 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% Grand Total 0% 0% 1% 7% 6% 6% 6% • Q4 09 actual shipments came out 4% higher than forecast, market remains strong. Forecast for 2010 to 2013 increase by 6-7% with the education program and rural sales program. • Major changes are in consumer market for both desktop and notebook, only slight adjustment for commercial PCs • IDC estimated 2.6 millions of additional consumer desktop PCs will be shipped in 2010 with the government rural program. After that the growth will remain steady. • With the revised forecast, Notebook PCs remains strong growth. © IDC May-10
  • 18. AIO market forecast 1600 1,412 1,466 700% Thousands 1400 1,304 600% 1,183 1200 500% 1000 801 400% 800 300% 600 421 400 200% 200 59 100% 0 0% 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 Units Growth AIO Shipments by Comsumer VS Commercial AIO 4Q 09unit shipment share 160 Lenovo 140 Apple 120 HP Thousands 100 Dell 80 Founder 60 MSI 40 BenQ 20 Tongfang 0 Other 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Consumer Commercial © IDC May-10 18
  • 19. IDC expect that mini notebook show mix down trend Mini-notebook Forecast 2008-2013 Mini-notebook Forecast 1Q08-4Q10 © IDC May-10 19
  • 20. Competition by Screen Size-Summary As key telecom carriers move their resources into smart phone and 3G bundle program with mini notebook showed decreased trend so <12” market shrank in recent quarter. CULV development brought the market growth to 13” size market. 14” size market always is the mainstream and gain 2 points market portion compare last year. Screen Size Mix 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 11% 9% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 14% 13% 15% 13% >15.9 90% 80% 15.0-15.9 70% 60% 69% 68% 68% 70% 14.0-14.9 68% 71% 67% 69% 75% 76% 50% 69% 72% 13.0-13.9 40% 30% 12.0-12.9 5% 6% 6% 8% 20% 5% 8% 7% 8% 7% 4% 4% 7% 6% 6% 4% 10% 6% 7% <12.0 10% 8% 16% 14% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 12% 13% 12% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 0% 1% 1% 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 © IDC May-10 20 Page
  • 21. Pressure of Price 1100 IDC notebook vs desktop ASV trend 1000 1,014 991 954 900 862 844 830 800 809 796 793 762 748 US$ 460 733 728 724 725 700 693 666 636 640 600 609 581 564 559 561 540 535 536 544 538 547 523 533 522 530 517 512 500 400 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Consumer DT Commercial DT Consumer NB Commercial NB © IDC May-10
  • 22. Segment and vertical © IDC May-10 22
  • 23. Consumer Segment Continues to Lead China PC Market Growth China PC Shipments Share by Segment 100% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 11% 10% 4% 4% 90% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 7% 5% 5% 5% 80% 6% Education 7% 70% 34% 36% 37% 39% 39% 35% 60% Government 36% 37% 50% 40% Large Business (500+) 30% 46% 49% 48% 48% 48% 48% 20%40% 40% SMB (<500) 10% 0% Home 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 © IDC May-10
  • 24. Segment forecast analysis by desktop Desktop YoY Growth Segment 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010/2009 2011/2010 2012/2011 2013/2012 2014/2013 Home 10,458,882 12,629,927 12,754,912 12,521,327 12,452,535 12,231,480 21% 1% -2% -1% -2% Small Office (1-9) 4,448,448 5,008,139 5,522,697 6,082,318 6,568,904 6,991,858 13% 10% 10% 8% 6% Small Business (10-99) 2,981,311 3,231,356 3,541,127 3,914,947 4,215,769 4,444,971 8% 10% 11% 8% 5% Medium Business (100-499) 1,950,411 2,130,458 2,293,139 2,482,238 2,631,172 2,735,242 9% 8% 8% 6% 4% Large Business (500-999) 1,099,797 1,196,516 1,275,826 1,369,360 1,440,836 1,475,443 9% 6.6% 7.3% 5.2% 2.40% Very Large Business (1000+) 610,122 668,410 729,618 813,230 867,419 896,921 10% 9% 11% 7% 3.40% Government 1,709,081 1,792,810 1,970,638 2,126,629 2,237,516 2,359,991 5% 10% 8% 5% 5% Education 3,140,136 3,432,628 3,846,305 3,972,547 4,131,448 4,296,706 9% 12% 3% 4% 4% Grand Total 26,398,187 30,090,243 31,934,261 33,282,596 34,545,599 35,432,613 14% 6% 4% 4% 3% SME 9,380,169 10,369,953 11,356,963 12,479,503 13,415,845 14,172,072 11% 10% 10% 8% 6% VLB/LB 1,709,919 1,864,926 2,005,444 2,182,590 2,308,255 2,372,364 9% 8% 9% 6% 3% Consumer 40% 42% 40% 38% 36% 35% Commercial 60% 58% 60% 62% 64% 65% 10% 10% 8% 6% 5% Com'l (w/o edu/gov) 11,090,087 12,234,879 13,362,407 14,662,093 15,724,099 16,544,436 10% 9% 10% 7% 5% •Consumer Market: Go to rural market project(200k+), New CPU, new form factor(AIO, small pc) •SME market : The economic recovery , especial in South China. The society of healthcare, traffic pick Up. Reduce tax police. •VLB/LB: Budget release for large business, Telecom and big manufacture enterprise. Smart electric fence (30K+), 卡式电表更换(15K+), intelligent traffic . Call center •Gov/ Edu: 远程教育3期, 文化共享工程 (120K+),公检法, 税务部门采购。 © IDC May-10 24
  • 25. Segment forecast analysis by notebook Portable YoY Growth Segment 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010/2009 2011/2010 2012/2011 2013/2012 2014/2013 Home 11,473,596 17,383,193 22,577,595 28,944,942 36,603,195 45,753,993 52% 30% 28% 26% 25% Small Office (1-9) 3,201,070 4,305,545 6,838,469 9,292,516 12,359,047 16,066,761 35% 59% 36% 33% 30% Small Business (10-99) 2,645,036 3,567,505 5,012,168 6,899,742 9,203,285 11,780,204 35% 40% 38% 33% 28% Medium Business (100-499) 1,669,660 2,155,170 2,868,210 3,677,107 4,633,155 5,791,443 29% 33% 28% 26% 25% Large Business (500-999) 571,747 744,895 938,686 1,174,941 1,447,727 1,751,750 30% 26% 25% 23% 21% Very Large Business (1000+) 313,015 406,263 491,226 562,938 645,822 768,528 30% 21% 15% 15% 19% Government 971,715 1,236,054 1,565,657 1,890,451 2,196,819 2,592,247 27% 27% 21% 16% 18% Education 696,831 832,338 994,580 1,116,883 1,239,485 1,363,434 19% 19% 12% 11% 10% Grand Total 21,542,670 30,630,964 41,286,589 53,559,520 68,328,533 85,868,359 42% 35% 30% 28% 26% SME 7,515,766 10,028,220 14,718,847 19,869,365 26,195,486 33,638,408 33% 47% 35% 32% 28% VLB/LB 884,762 1,151,159 1,429,912 1,737,879 2,093,548 2,520,277 30% 24% 22% 20% 20% Consumer 53% 57% 55% 54% 54% 53% Commercial 47% 43% 45% 46% 46% 47% 32% 41% 32% 29% 26% Com'l (w/o edu/gov) 33% 44% 34% 31% 28% •Consumer Market: Rural and lower tier cities , the 2nd PC user •SME market: 101 project for manufacture。The economic recovery. 农信社,城市商业银行 (also buy the desktop)。Media company •VLB/LB: traffic project •Gov/ Edu: School line change to notebook. Private school . Teacher notebook market. © IDC May-10 25
  • 26. Vertical forecast analysis by desktop The vertical desktop market forecast Vertical 2008 2009 2010 2010 mix 2014 09 Growth 10 Growth -4% 10% Education 3,275,728 3,134,636 3,432,628 20% 4,296,706 5% 8% I café 2,988,706 3,131,711 3,378,483 19% 4,348,953 -11% 8% Manufacture 3,097,099 2,765,812 2,979,226 17% 3,780,117 0% 5% Government 1,701,970 1,703,548 1,792,810 10% 2,359,991 -5% 9% Other Services 1,238,177 1,172,919 1,281,321 7% 1,759,098 -2% 13% Telecom 1,068,134 1,049,928 1,188,385 7% 1,646,612 -1% 12% Finance 1,001,809 987,624 1,106,598 6% 1,539,881 20% 24% Healthcare 391,917 468,967 582,802 3% 921,700 2% 17% Agriculture, Construction and Mining 372,425 380,446 446,272 3% 657,531 -4% 12% Retail & Wholesales 365,350 349,204 390,054 2% 561,759 -6% 8% Media 319,948 300,948 323,920 2% 467,782 -1% 16% Utilities 289,514 287,334 332,910 2% 485,823 12% 29% Transportation 155,803 174,139 224,908 1% 375,182 16,266,579 15,907,216 17,460,316 100% 23,201,133 -2% 10% Total Business Desktop © IDC May-10 26
  • 27. Vertical forecast analysis by notebook The vertical notebook market forecast Vertical 2008 2009 2010 2010mix 2014 09 Growth 10 Growth 28% 35% 29% Manufacture 2,163,410 2,914,345 3,768,222 11,725,907 20% 37% 34% Other Services 1,443,927 1,983,854 2,651,906 8,460,988 10% 43% 35% Telecom 665,396 953,790 1,289,112 4,148,803 9% 47% 34% Finance 633,765 930,790 1,247,000 4,120,977 9% 26% 27% Government 771,567 971,053 1,236,054 2,592,247 6% 30% 20% Education 537,502 696,101 832,338 1,363,434 5% 46% 35% Media 310,810 452,325 610,015 2,044,281 3% 48% 42% Healthcare 212,287 315,201 448,700 1,623,792 3% 36% 35% Retail & Wholesales 234,404 317,827 428,299 1,466,425 2% 41% 36% Utilities 144,358 203,315 276,271 935,207 2% 49% 37% Agriculture, Construction and Mining 132,402 197,478 271,417 924,972 1% 48% 45% Transportation 87,722 129,834 188,437 707,333 7,337,549 10,065,913 13,247,771 100% 40,114,366 37% 32% Total Business notebook © IDC May-10 27
  • 29. PC Market Summary *,*,* : shipment M, share, YOY growth Total PC CY2009 Very Large: >1000 employees Large: 500-999 employees 48.0,100%,21.3% Mid: 100-499 employees Small Biz: 10-99 employees Small Office: 1-9 employees Commercial Consumer 26.0, 22.0, 45.7%, 54.3%,10.3% 37.4% MNA Named SBC 14.5, 3.3, MNC local others 4.2, 18.9%, 66.1%, 15.0%, 18.1, 3.6, 13.9%, 4.3, 16.7%, - -7.9% 63.2% 27.7% 69.4%,20.9% 1.7% 14.7% Lenovo/Dell /HP/Asus Others /Acer Top Top Other 13.0, 1.6, 30 600 s 89.1%, 10.9%, Lenovo/Dell/HP 59.6% 100.3% Founder Others Top Top /Asus/Acer Others Others 2.6, 73.4%, 1.0, 26.6%, - 30 600 16.8,93.1%, 1.3, 6.9%, 13.3% 17.2% 24.1% Founder Others 21.5% 1.0, 2.3, 31.1%, 68.9%, 32.9% 25.4% Very Small Small Very Small Small Very Small Small Edu Gov Large Large Mid Biz Office Edu Gov Large Large Mid Biz Office Edu Gov Large Large Mid Biz Office 2.1, 2.1, 0.8, 1.4, 2.9, 3.7, 3.8, 1.0, 0.4, 0.06, 1.4, 3.4, 4.3, 2.4, 0.2, 0.03, 0.02 0.05, 0.2 0.9, 3.0, 12.8%, 12.4%, 4.9%, 8.4%, 17.0%, 22.2%, 22.3%, 36.9%, 16.3%, 2.3%, 5.4%, 13.1%, 16.7%, 9.2%, 4.8%, 0.6%, 0.4%, 1.1%, 3.9%, 19.7%, 69.6%, 6.2% 11.3% 7.9% 5.2% 16.8% 29.9% 49.2% 10.8% 16.9% 27.4% 9.5% 13.2% 24.2% 49.9% -23.6% -42.0% -17.4% -19.9% -27.1% -17.6% -11.8% Very Small Small Very Small Small Edu Gov Large Large Mid Biz Office Edu Gov Large Large Mid Biz Office 0.05, 0.06, 0.03, 0.08, 0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.08, 0.005, 0.006, 0.06, 0.3, 0.2, 3.9%, 4.9%, 2.8%, 6.2%, 14.8%, 34.2%, 33.2%, 46.5%, 8.1%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 6.3%, 17.2%, 20.9%, 21.4% -5.7% 15.2% 11.3% 20.2% 11.7% 14.8% -22.8% -32.4% -60.8% -58.6% -29.9% -31.0% -9.5% Source: IDC © IDC May-10Slide 29
  • 30. Desktop Market Competitive Analysis Commercial DT Market by Vendor Share Consumer DT Market by Vendor Share 100% 100% Lenovo Lenovo 90% 90% 21% 22% 24% 23% HP 27% 29% 28% 30% 25% 23% 24% 26% 31% 33% 33% Founder 37% 80% 80% Founder HP 11% 7% 9% 8% 10% 10% 13% Dell 70% 70% 9% 13% 12% Dell 16% 14% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 12% 7% 13% 14% 7% 8% Haier 60% Tongfang 60% 7% 8% 14% 9% Tongfang 9% 11% 50% 8% Acer. 50% 15% 11% Acer. 40% Haier 40% Apple 30% Apple 30% Hasee Asus 45% 47% 47% 48% 45% 43% 20% 20% 33% 34% 30% 31% 31% 31% 37% 37% MSI 26% 23% Great Wall 10% 10% Others Others 0% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 20 1 20 2 20 3 20 4 20 1 20 2 20 3 Q4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 © IDC May-10
  • 31. Portable Market Competitive Analysis Portable Market by Vendor Share MiniNotebook Market by Vendor Share 100% 100% Asus Lenovo 14% 12% 17% 18% 18% 90% 90% Lenovo 27% 28% 30% 30% HP 31% 33% 32% 34% 14% 80% 80% Hasee Asus 45% 21% 14% 5% 21% HP 70% Dell 70% 29% 19% 11% 19% 7% Dell 60% 18% 17% 16% 19% 23% Acer 60% 84% 5% 19% 4% Samsung 50% Samsung 50% 100% 19% Sony 40% Hasee 40% 1% Toshiba 30% Sony 30% Acer Toshiba 20% 20% 0% Founder Founder 10% 10% 18% 18% Others Others 9% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 20 1 20 2 20 3 20 4 20 1 20 2 20 3 Q4 20 1 20 2 20 3 20 4 20 1 20 2 20 3 Q4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 20 20 © IDC May-10
  • 32. Portable Market Competitive Analysis Consumer NB Market by Vendor Share Commercial NB Market by Vendor Share 100% 100% Lenovo Lenovo 90% 90% HP 24% 23% 27% 29% 28% 25% 27% 29% 30% HP 34% 36% 36% 33% 36% 34% 80% 80% 39% Asus Dell 70% 70% Dell 17% Asus 22% 16% 18% 16% 21% 18% Acer 60% 23% 17% 60% 16% Hasee 16% 16% 22% 21% 24% Sony 50% 50% 12% 21% Samsung 10% 11% 10% Samsung 40% Acer 40% 10% 10% 14% 12% Toshiba 30% Sony 30% Founder 20% Toshiba 20% Apple 10% Haier 10% Others Others 5% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% 3% 0% 0% 20 1 20 2 20 3 20 4 20 1 20 2 20 3 Q4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 20 1 20 2 20 3 20 4 20 1 20 2 20 3 Q4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 20 20 © IDC May-10
  • 33. Geography (city level, provincial) © IDC May-10 33
  • 34. The Pursuit Of Parity – PC Market Cities nearer to the coast have higher PC penetration than in rural areas Only 2 China Provinces have achieved high penetration rate These provinces have large household base. However, PC IB is still low. © Source: IDC IDC, 2009 May-10
  • 35. Shipments to Rural Areas IDC大陆PC市场下乡项目预测 大陆PC市场各城市级别出货量同比增长率 800 709 708 30% Thousands 700 616 642 600 Tier5 468 492 500 400 300 200 130 100 20% 0 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 PC下乡销售量 10% 2009Q3PC下乡项目市场份额(引用政府公布信息) Others HP Tier2 Tongfang 2%3% 10% Lenovo 0% 40% 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Founder Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 19% 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Haier -10% 26% 1 2 3 4 5 6 © IDC May-10 35
  • 36. Tier 4-6 and rural market are the future 1H 09 PC 2013 Forecast PC 2009 vs.2013 Tier 1-6 Cities Market Share Household Installed Base Installed Base per per 100 HH 100 HH 100% 9% 11% Rural 155M 0.1 5.7 90% 16% 80% 21% 70% Tier 4-5 12.8 95M 1.2 17% Cities Tier 6 60% 19% Tier 5 Tier 4 50% 22% Tier 3 Tier 2 40% 21% Tier 1 Tier 2-3 Cities 50M 13.5 50.6 30% 10% 9% 20% 25% 10% 19% Tier 1 Cities 30M 31.1 75.7 0% 2008 2013 © IDC May-10 36
  • 37. Contact Me Thank you! Please email me at anwang@idc.com 王吉平 © IDC May-10