Practices of Downscaling Methods for Water Resources Management in Sri Lanka

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Practices of Downscaling Methods for Water Resources Management in Sri Lanka

  1. 1. Practices of DownscalingMethods for Water Resources Management in Sri Lanka Sewwandhi Chandrasekara Sanjaya Rathnayake
  2. 2. Introduction• Sri Lanka owns different types of water resources .Click>>• Historically Sri Lanka had great hydraulic civilization• Presently water resources management is essential to Sri Lanka
  3. 3. – 103 river basins (4560 km) (Ministry of Forestry and Environment, 1999) – More than 20 major wetlands – Minor and major irrigation systems – Groundwater resources – Coastal and marine resources. Click>>• Sri Lanka – 2400 m3 of available per capita water resources – 2000 mm of average annual RF (Ariyabandu, 2008) click>>
  4. 4. Click>>
  5. 5. Historically• Great ancient hydraulic civilization in Sri Lanka – Water used for • Irrigation • Domestic requirements • Urban recreations • Small scale industries – However • Water was managed properly – Sustainably – Participatory
  6. 6. But…..• Temporal and spatial water scarcity• Pollution• Agrarian demand to sectoral demand. Click>> – Industrial demand – Environmental demand – Electricity demand – Recreational demandSustainable water resources management is essential… Click>>
  7. 7. Click>>
  8. 8. Why prediction is important?
  9. 9. Threats for the water management
  10. 10. Statistical Downscaling…• Downscaling for – Rainfall OND • Second inter-monsoon period • 16% of quantity • Important to land preparations for “Maha” season (64% of paddy cultivation) – Temperature OND • Average 270C
  11. 11. Using SCM…. 0.2 mm wetter than the normal
  12. 12. 44% of success rate
  13. 13. Using SSE… 0.2 –0.4 mm wetter than the normal
  14. 14. 44% of success rate
  15. 15. Using MRG…. 0.2 –0.8 mm wetter than the normal
  16. 16. Poor success rate
  17. 17. Using SSE…. 0.2 0C warmer than normal
  18. 18. Poor success rate
  19. 19. Using MRG… 0.2 0C warmer than normal
  20. 20. 44%-55% success rate
  21. 21. Using SCM… 0.2 0C warmer than normal
  22. 22. 55% success rate
  23. 23. Conclusions• For OND season SSE & SCM can used to predict rainfall at 44% success rate• For OND season SCM can used to predict temperature at 44% success rate Unable to predict rainfall for the next season, because the stations what we selected were failed at screening
  24. 24. Using Dynamic Downscaling• Software : RegCM 4• Predicted Region : Sri Lanka• Latitude : 5 N – 10 N• Longitude : 75 E – 85 E• Duration : 1998 June
  25. 25. Westerly Wind
  26. 26. Southerly Wind
  27. 27. Geo Potential Height
  28. 28. Air Temperature
  29. 29. Relative Moisture
  30. 30. Water Vapor
  31. 31. Cloud Water
  32. 32. Surface Pressure
  33. 33. Sea Level Pressure
  34. 34. Total Precipitation
  35. 35. Total Soil Water in mm H2O
  36. 36. Accumulated Infiltration
  37. 37. Conclusion• RegCM 4.0 is very usable to predict South-west monsoon to Sri lanka• Because past experiences showed the same results observed from the RegCM 4.0 for the same monsoon season
  38. 38. Further Work• Simulate long term predictions via RegCM3• Upload more applicable Sri Lankan station precipitation data for CLIK on-line application
  39. 39. Acknowledgement• Dr. Lareef Zubair and staff at Foundation of Environment and Climate Technologies, Digana. Sri Lanka.• Organizing Committee and Lecturers APEC Climate Center. South Korea.• Colleagues who participated with us.
  40. 40. Thanking you!Sewwandhi Chandrasekara APEC Climate Center Sanjaya Ratnayake South Korea (Sri Lanka)

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