Leslie Appleton Young 2012 Forecast
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Leslie Appleton Young 2012 Forecast

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Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and ...

Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and all of the latest charts and stats on the California economy.

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  • Source for Deficit: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2010/2010_sep.htm
  • Zip code - 92128
  • 51% of buyers did not own their previous home, they rented or lived with parents.
  • Buyers are doing more research before contacting an agent.
  • The majority of buyers found the home they bought through an agent.
  • The percentage of buyers who found their home on the internet nearly doubled in 4 years.
  • Realtor.com is still the leader in this field, with 93% of buyers using it. Zillow and Google are also widely used by 82% and 73%, respectively.
  • Home buyers continued to experience considerable difficulty in obtaining financing for the homes they bought. On a scale of “1” to “10”, with “1” being “very easy” to obtain financing and “10” being “very difficult”, home buyers reported an average level of difficulty of 8.5, compared to 8.1 in 2009.
  • Again, we see the importance of the internet, especially social media tools.
  • The majority of buyers interviewed more than 1 agent, demonstrating the importance of making yourself stand out among the competition.
  • These are the qualities agents should market in their value propositions because it is what buyers are seeking.
  • Agent response time is important to all buyers.
  • Only about half of buyers surveyed felt that agents met their expectations on response time.

Leslie Appleton Young 2012 Forecast Leslie Appleton Young 2012 Forecast Presentation Transcript

  • Real Estate Market Update/ 2012 FORECASTIntegrated Real Estate Services - San diegoJanuary 31, 2012Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist
  • Overview US and California Economies California Housing Market Regional & Local Markets 2011 Annual Market Survey 2012 Housing Market Forecast CA Buyers & Sellers in Today’s Housing Market
  • U.S. Economic Outlook
  • Economy Slowly Gaining Post-Stimulus Momentum GDP 2010: 2.8% 2011:1.8% 2012: 2.6% 8% 7% 6% ANNUAL QTRLY 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%-1%-2%-3% 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)-4%-5%-6%-7%-8% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11
  • Performance Targets for National Economy Current This Year - Target Projected Unemployment 6% 9.0% US GDP 3% or higher 1.8% Nonfarm Job 3%+ or 1.0% Growth 400K+/mo CPI 2.5% 3.2%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • Consumer Spending Rebounding Holiday and Auto Sales Consumer Spending 2011 Q3: 2.4%8% QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE6%4%2%0%-2%-4% 1Q-2000 1Q-2001 1Q-2002 1Q-2003 1Q-2004 1Q-2005 1Q-2006 1Q-2007 1Q-2008 1Q-2009 1Q-2010 1Q-2011SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Consumer Confidence: Nov/Dec Rebound Income Concerns Trump Job Gains January 2012: 61.1INDEX, 100=1985
  • CA Underwater Mortgages: Reverse Wealth Effect Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA 40% 35% 30.2% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 0.046 5% 0% Q4-2009 Q1-2010 Q2-2010 Q3-2010 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011SOURCE: CoreLogic
  • Unemployment: Heading Lower U.S. at 3 year low December 2011California (11.1%) vs. United States (8.5%)14% CA US12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  • U.S. Non-farm Job Growth: Gaining! Month-to-MonthChanges Recession Job Losses: 8.8 million Since Jan 2010: +2.4 million Created 1.6 million jobs in 2011 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 -200,000 -400,000 -600,000 -800,000 -1,000,000 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Oct-11 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • California Non-farm Job Growth Month-to-Month Changes Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million Since Jan’10: +282,000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 -40000 -60000 -80000 -100000 -120000 -140000 -160000 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  • Nonfarm Employment San Diego County, December 2011: Up 2.2% YTY Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  • 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Unemployment Rate Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 San Diego County, December 2011: 8.9% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
  • Where are California’s Jobs? Employment Trends:Construction & Financial Sectors Biggest Losers Year to Industry 2005 Jul-11 Date Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000 Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000 Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600 Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200 Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500 Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500 Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600 Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400 Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000 Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000 TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • CA New Housing Permits 2011: 47,015 units, Up 5.0% from 2010 300,000 Single Family Multi-Family 250,000 Household Growth: 220,000-250,000/yr 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010SOURCE: CBIA
  • Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers Deleveraging Low Rates and Tight Credit Fed easing through 201410%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2% FRM ARM1% Federal Funds0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
  • US Deficit Highest in Decades 2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses) 4.0% Deficit as a % of GDP 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.Note: Positive = Surplus
  • Federal Issues – Critical Concerns for the REALTOR Party Future of Fannie and Freddie? FHA? Tax Reform on the horizon – Mortgage Interest Deduction? QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20% Down requirement -- Is the future of the 30 year mortgage in doubt?
  • U.S. Economic Outlook 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.8% 2.6% Nonfarm Job 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9% Growth Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9% CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3% Real Disposable Income, % 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% Change Forecast Date: January 2012SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • California Economic Outlook 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012fNonfarm Job 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%GrowthUnemployment 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%RatePopulation 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%GrowthReal DisposableIncome, % 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%Change Forecast Date: January 2012 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • California Housing Market
  • Sales Hit Bottom 4 Years Ago Median Price 2011 = 2002 UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $ “Lost Decade” Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price 700,000 -44% 600,000 500,000 -61% -25% 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence• California, December 2011 Sales: 520,940 Units, Up 1.1% YTD, Up 0.1% YTY UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 700,000 160 600,000 140 120 500,000 100 400,000 80 300,000 60 200,000 40 100,000 20 0 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
  • Mortgage Loan Applications for Purchase January 20, 2012: 184.8600 INDEX, 100 = 03/16/90500400300200100 0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
  • Mortgage Applications/ Total Purchase Loans (Weekly % Chg.) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Aug-11 Nov-11 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 May-11 Mar-11Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
  • Statewide Median Price Stalled California, December 2011: $285,920, Down 6.2% YTY$700,000 P: May-07 $594,530$600,000$500,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230 -59% from$400,000 peak$300,000$200,000$100,000 $0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • Median Prices Bottomed Almost 3 Years Ago Trough vs. Current Price – December 2011 Southern California Trough Trough Dec-11 % Chg From Region Month Price Median Trough San Bernardino County May-09 $120,410 $128,450 6.7% Ventura Couty Feb-09 $359,630 $391,060 8.7% Orange County Jan-09 $442,170 $484,630 9.6% San Diego County Mar-09 $326,830 $359,930 10.1% Palm Springs/Lower Desert Apr-09 $150,140 $165,960 10.5% Inland Empire Apr-09 $150,860 $172,430 14.3% CALIFORNIA Feb-09 $245,230 $285,920 16.6% Southern California Apr-09 $246,063 $286,950 16.6% Los Angeles Metro Apr-09 $227,370 $265,830 16.9% Riverside County Apr-09 $171,480 $203,650 18.8% Los Angeles County May-09 $248,850 $306,950 23.3%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • Housing Affordability: Historic High’s California Vs. U.S. % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 75% US - CA CA US Monthly QTRLY 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 -5%SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 MONTHS Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Unsold Inventory Index Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 California, December 2011: 4.2 Months Jan-10 Jan-11
  • Tight Supply of Inventory for REO Sales 2011UnsoldInventory Index 8.9(Months) 9 6.7 8 7 6 5 2.7 4 3 2 1 0 Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • Higher Price = Higher Inventory Unsold Inventory Index (Months of Supply) Price Range (Thousand) Dec-10 Nov-11 Dec-11 $1,000K+ 8.2 9.6 8.3 $750-1000K 5.7 7.0 5.9 $500-750K 4.7 6.0 4.5 $300-500K 4.9 5.3 4.4 $0-300K 4.9 4.7 3.9SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales Year 1988 2,718 1989 4,271 1990 3,773 1991 3,362 1992 2,890 1993 2,298 1994 2,522 1995 2,017 1996 2,651 1997 3,762 1998 5,366 1999 8,906 2000 13,101 2001 10,658 2002 15,703 2003 20,595 2004 36,990 2005 54,773 2006 50,010 2007 42,506 2008 24,436 2009 18,621 2010 22529 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Number of HomesSource: DataQuick Information Systems
  • Market Breakdown:Equity v. Distressed Sales
  • Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales Dec-11 REOs, 24.6% Equity Sales, Short Sales, 52.7% 22.2% Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified), 0.5%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  • REO & Short Sales: Southern California(Percent of Total Sales) 100% Dec 2011 80% Short Sales REO Sales 60% 19% 31% 40% 27% 26% 20% 21% 47% 31% 10% 15% 0% 18% Los Angeles Orange Riverside SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® San Bernardino San Diego
  • Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates California: Q3-2011 Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate 12% 10% 7.6% 8% Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.4% 6% 4% 3.6% Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.2% 2% 0% Q1/74 Q2/75 Q3/76 Q4/77 Q1/79 Q2/80 Q3/81 Q4/82 Q1/84 Q2/85 Q3/86 Q4/87 Q1/89 Q2/90 Q3/91 Q4/92 Q1/94 Q2/95 Q3/96 Q4/97 Q1/99 Q2/00 Q3/01 Q4/02 Q1/04 Q2/05 Q3/06 Q4/07 Q1/09 Q2/10 Q3/11SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association
  • 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 0 Q1/89 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Foreclosures Q1/03 San Diego County Q1/04 Q1/05 Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11
  • Carlsbad Preforeclosure: 199 • Auction: 212 • Bank Owned: 66Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 01/30/2012.
  • Del Mar Preforeclosure: 13 • Auction: 20 • Bank Owned: 7Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 01/30/2012.
  • Rancho Bernardo Preforeclosure: 87 • Auction: 85 • Bank Owned: 29Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 01/30/2012.
  • Sacramento Preforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  • Sacramento Preforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  • Sacramento Preforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  • Sacramento Preforeclosure: 2,216 • Auction: 1,905 • Bank Owned: 1,560Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 08/19/11
  • Local Market Conditions
  • Carlsbad
  • Sales of Residential Homes Carlsbad, December 2011: 112 Units Up 6.7% MTM, Down 3.4% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Median Price of Residential Homes Carlsbad, December 2011: $502,500, Down 3.4% MTM, Down 15.2% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • For Sale Properties Carlsbad, December 2011: 829 Units, Down 11.8% MTM, Down 9.1% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Months Supply of Inventory Carlsbad, December 2011: 5.7 MonthsSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Del Mar
  • Sales of Residential Homes Del Mar, December 2011: 13 Units Up 18.2% MTM, Even 0% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Median Price of Residential Homes Del Mar, December 2011: $962,500 Up 23.4% MTM, Down 3.7% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • For Sale Properties Del Mar, Dec. 2011: 182 Units Down 9.5% MTM, Down 29.2% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Months Supply of Inventory Del Mar, December 2011: 9.9 MonthsSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Rancho Bernardo
  • Sales of Residential Homes Rancho Bernardo, December 2011: 64 Units Up 3.2% MTM, Even 0% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Median Price of Residential Homes Rancho Bernardo, Dec. 2011: $277,500 Down 21.3% MTM, Down 25.5% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • For Sale Properties Rancho Bernardo, Dec. 2011: 413 Units Down 7.01% MTM, Down 13.8% YTYSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • Months Supply of Inventory Rancho Bernardo, December 2011: 7.0 MonthsSOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  • 2011 Annual Housing Market Survey
  • Equity vs. REO vs. Short Sales Equity Sales REO Sales Short SalesShare of Total Sales 58.7% 19.7% 20.2%Median Home Price $431,000 $240,000 $287,000Square Footage 1,783 1,500 1,600Price / SF $250 $112 $175Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 98.0% 95.9%% of Sales With Multiple Offers 35.2% 58.3% 57.5%Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 3.0 3.6% of All Cash Sales 25.5% 34.0% 23.3%Days on MLS 67 50 141Days in Escrow 35 35 45
  • Proportion of Sellers Planning to Repurchase 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
  • Reasons Sellers Not Planning to Buy Another Home Seller is a lender/bank 19.8% Seller prefers to have less financial obligation 11.4% Poor credit background 10.9% Lack of cash for down payment 5.7% Out of work/unemployment 4.9% Decide to live with family/friends 4.7% Waiting for market to bottom 2.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Q. Why is the seller not planning to purchase another home?
  • Reasons For Selling All Home Sellers Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default Change in Family Status Retirement/Move to Retirement Community Investment/ Tax Consderations Desired Better Location Desired Smaller Home Changed Jobs Desired Larger Home Other 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
  • Investments & Second/ Vacation Homes Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home25%20% 7%15%10% 17%5%0%
  • Foreign Buyers 10% % of Foreign Buyers 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011Q. Was the buyer a foreign buyer?
  • California Housing Market Forecast
  • Forecast Progress Report 2010 2011 Projected Forecast 2011 2010 Actual October October Projected 2010 2010 SFH Resales 492.0 491.5 502.0 491.1 (000s) % Change -10.0% -10.1% 2.0% -0.1% Median Price $306.5 $303.1 $312.5 $291.0 ($000s) % Change 11.5% 10.2% 2.0% -4.0% Forecast Date: September 2011 vs October 2010Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • California Housing Market Outlook 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f SFH Resales 625.0 477.5 346.9 441.8 546.9 491.5 491.1 496.2 (000s) % Change 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 27.3% 23.8% -10.1% -0.1% 1.0% Median Price $522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $348.5 $275.0 $303.1 $291.0 $296.0 ($000s) % Change 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -37.8% -21.1% 10.2% -4.0% 1.7% 30-Yr FRM 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 4.7% 1-Yr ARM 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1% Forecast Date: September 2011Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • Buyers in Today’sMarket: 2011 Surveyof California Home Buyers
  • Age Median Age: 35Q. What is your age?
  • Buyers Are Getting Younger
  • Buyers Are Highly Educated 7% 12% 20% High school Some college Vocation/technical school College graduate Post graduate 14% 47%Q. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
  • Percentage of First-time Buyers 50% Remains High 43% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Q. Was this your first home purchase?
  • The Buying Experience Considered buying for over 4 months & investigated homes/neighborhoods for 2.5 months, on average, before contacting an agent Viewed 12 homes in 8 weeks with agent 76% didn’t close escrow on time 49% owned previous home Motivated by price decreases & mortgage interest and property tax deductions 80% found home through agent
  • Living Arrangement Before PurchaseQ. What was your living arrangement immediately before your recenthome purchase?
  • Buyers Spend More Time Considering Purchases Before Contacting AgentQ. How many weeks did you consider buying a home beforecontacting a real estate agent?
  • Time Spent Less Time Investigating Options Before Contacting AgentQ. How many weeks did you spend investigating homes andneighborhoods before contacting a real estate agent?
  • Buyers Viewed Fewer Homes With Agent* Reflects only buyers who used an agentQ. About how many different homes did you preview and visit withhim/her [agent] prior to your purchase?
  • What Got Buyers Off the Fence?Q. What got you off the fence and motivated you to buy your home when you did?
  • How Buyers Found Home: 80% Agent - 2011 -Q. How did you find the home your purcahsed?
  • How Buyers Found Home: 90% Agent - 2007 -Q. How did you find the home your purcahsed?
  • Top 10 Websites Used Real estate agent websiteQ. Which websites did you use as part of your home buying process?
  • Most Useful Websites Real estate company website Real estate agent websiteQ. What was the most useful website that you visited during your home buying process?
  • Quick Facts  92% of buyers obtained financing, but 72% found it difficult  42% of buyers put 20% down  Over 84% obtained a 30-year, fixed rate loanQ. For which of the following did you use the internet as a part of your homebuying process?
  • Buyers Continue to Have Difficulties Obtaining Financing 2009: Mean = 8.1 Median = 9 2010: Mean = 8.5, Median = 9 2011: Mean = 8.0, Median = 9Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.
  • Quick Facts About Homebuyers 94% of buyers used an agent 58% of buyers found their agent online 56% of buyers interviewed at least 2 agents 51% Googled their agent 93% are receptive to receiving information via social media 54% would work with same agent again 80% would find agent ratings beneficial
  • # of Agents Interviewed 8 19% 3 12% 1 44% 2 36%Q. How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agentyou used in your recent home purchase?
  • Why Buyers Chose their Agent 1. Most responsive (28%) 2. Worked with agent before (18%) 3. First to respond (17%) 4. Most aggressive (16%) 5. Most knowledgeable (6%)Q. What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent that youused in your recent home purchase?
  • Agent Response Time Is Very Important - Rating on 1 to 5 Scale -Q. Please rate the importance of the agent’s response time in the decision on your final selection on a scale ofone to five, with five being extremely important and one being not at all important.
  • Agents Need to Improve Response Time - Rating on 1 to 5 Scale -Q. Did your real estate agent meet your expectations on response time? Please rate youragent’s response time on a scale of one to five, with five being agent exceedingly surpassedexpectations and one being agent fell way below expectations.
  • Over 1/3 of Buyers Expect Instant Response from Agent - Up 50% in Recent Years -Q. What was the typical response time you expected fromyour agent to return any form of communication to you?
  • Closing Thoughts
  • Direction of Home Prices: Sellers Skeptical; Buyers Hopeful Down Flat Unsure Up 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Sellers BuyersQ: Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down or stay flat in one year, five years and 10 years?
  • Real Estate: It’s Time To Buy Again “Forget stocks. Dont bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.”SOURCE: “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully
  • 8 in 10 Americans Agree Buying a Home is the Best Investment One Can MakeSOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
  • 8 in 10 Renters Would Like to Buy in the Future “…renters are hardly immune to the allure of homeownership, even in the face of the five-year decline in prices. Asked if they rent out of choice or because they cannot afford to buy a home, just24% say they rent out of choice.”SOURCE: Pew Research Center’s “Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst”
  • Thank Youwww.car.org.marketdata lesliea@car.org