Wind in our Sails - The coming of Europe's offshore wind energy industry

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‘Wind in our Sails’ is about offshore wind energy and provides a detailed analysis of the sector’s rapidly developing supply chain.

A growing industry with huge potential and massive developer interest, offshore is nonetheless facing a possible financing gap and an inadequate power grid. Questions answered in the report include;

How much capacity is currently installed?
Will there be enough turbines, foundations, cables, ships and ports.
How much is under construction, consented and in government concession zones?
How will the sector develop in the next few years?
(November 2011)

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Wind in our Sails - The coming of Europe's offshore wind energy industry

  1. 1. Wind in our SailsThe coming of Europe’s offshore wind energyindustry
  2. 2. The coming of Europe’soffshore wind energy industry
  3. 3. Cumulative offshore wind capacityEU and non EU (1991 - 2010) (MW) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2001 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cumulative non EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 102 Cumulative 5 5 5 7 12 29 9 2 2 36 86 256 515 605 695 787 1,106 1,479 2,063 2,946 EU Source: EWEA
  4. 4. Annual offshore wind capacityEU and non EU (1991 - 2010) (MW) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Annual non EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 102 Annual EU 5 0 0 2 5 17 0 3 0 4 51 170 259 90 90 3 318 374 584 883 Source: EWEA
  5. 5. Share of new installed capacityin Europe in 2010 Finland 0% Germany 6% (2.3 MW) (50 MW) Belgium 19% (165 MW) United Kingdom 52% (458 MW) Denmark 23% (207 MW) Source: EWEA
  6. 6. Total offshore wind market outlook Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011 • Total installed capacity of 4,000 MW • Meeting 0.4% of total EU electricity demand • Annual installations of 1,000 MW • Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO2 annually • Total electricity production of 14.4 TWh • Annual investments in wind turbines of €2.8 billion.
  7. 7. Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2011• Total installed capacity of 4,000 MW• Meeting 0.4% of total EU electricity demand• Annual installations of 1,000 MW• Avoiding 9.9 Mt of CO2 annually• Total electricity production of 14.4 TWh• Annual investments in wind turbines of €2.8 billion.
  8. 8. Annual offshore wind capacityEU and non EU (1991 - 2010) (MW) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 EWEA 4 5 8 11 14 17 22 27 33 40 NREAP’s 4 6 9 12 16 20 26 31 37 43 Source: EWEA
  9. 9. Historical onshore growth (1995 - 2005)compared to EWEAs offshore projection (2010 - 2020) (GW) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 / 1996 / 1997 / 1998 / 1999 / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Onshore 2,5 3,4 4,7 6,4 9,6 12,9 17,2 22,8 28,0 33,8 39,8 Offshore 2,9 3,9 5,3 8,1 10,9 14,0 17,4 21,6 26,7 33,1 40,0 Source: EWEA
  10. 10. Offshore wind electricity production2010 - 2020 (TWh) 140 145 120 121 100 97 80 78 60 63 50 40 39.5 20 29 16 19 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: EWEA
  11. 11. Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2020• Total installed capacity of 40,000 MW• Meeting 4.2% of total EU electricity demand• Annual installations of 6,900 MW• Avoiding 102 Mt of CO2 annually• Total electricity production of 148 TWh• Annual investments in offshore wind turbines of €10.4 billion• Cumulative investments in offshore wind turbines of €65.9 billion in the period 2011 - 2020.
  12. 12. Offshore wind energy market in the EU in 2030• Total installed capacity of 150,000 MW• Annual installations of 13,700 MW• Total electricity production of 562 TWh• Meeting 13.9% of total EU electricity demand• Avoiding 315 Mt of CO2 in 2030• Annual investments in offshore wind turbines of €17 billion in 2030• Cumulative investments of €145.2 billion from 2021 to 2030
  13. 13. Onshore and offshore wind electricityproduction 2021 - 2030 (TWh) 1,200 1,000 562 511 800 461 412 366 322 281 244 600 209 177 400 550 562 571 579 586 591 489 514 534 462 200 0 2029 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2030 Source: EWEA
  14. 14. A fluid supply chain Wind Structural Electrical Marine Cable Cable EPCI Port turbine fabricators suppliers contractors suppliers installers contractors operators Manuf- acturers Example Siemens, SIF, ABB, A2Sea, Nexans, Technip, Fluor, Various incumbent Vestas, Smulders, Siemens MPI, SHL, Prysmian, CT Van Oord, s REpower, Bladt, EEW, Energy, Geosea ABB NKT, Offshore, ABJV, MT Areva Weserwind, Alstom Grid Scanrope Global Hojgaard, BiFAB, Aker Marine, DEME Visser&Smit Example BARD, GE, H&W, C&G Fred Olsen, DRAKA, Beluga Hochtief, Various new Doosan, TAG, Tata, Beluga, JDR Saipem, entrants Gamesa, Hereema, Inwind, Technip, Alstom, ZPMC, GOAH, Subsea7 Nordex, Shinan, Sea Jacks Mitsubishi Fabricom Level 1         Level 2         Level 3 Legend:         Ticks and crosses represent  Likely likelihood of positioning  Possible at relevant Level in the  Unlikely contractual hierarchy: Source: GL Garrad Hassan
  15. 15. Supply and demand for offshore windturbine technology in Europe 18,000 (TWh) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total (pessimistic) Total (central) Total (optimistic) Firm capacity Demand (EWEA) Source: GL Garrad Hassan
  16. 16. Historic offshore wind turbinefoundation market share (by year) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 1998 2010 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 Monopile Grafity-based structure Space-frame Source: GL Garrad Hassan
  17. 17. Analysis of supply and demandfor HV subsea cables 8000 7000 7,000 6000 6,000 5000 5,000 4000 4,000 3000 1,000 2,000 2000 1000 1,000 0 0 2010 20102011 2011 201220132013 20142014 2015 2012 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2020 Demand Estimated supply Source: GL Garrad Hassan
  18. 18. Projected offshore installation vesselsupply and demand (vessels per annum) Main installation vessels (offshore wind) 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 Demand - repair Demand - foundations 15 15 Demand - turbines Supply – firm 10 10 capacity Supply – low case 5 5 Supply – mid case Supply – high case 0 0 2011 2014 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: GL Garrad Hassan
  19. 19. Example of European portsfor offshore wind construction
  20. 20. About the European Wind Energy Association EWEA is the voice of the wind industry, actively promoting wind power in Europe and worldwide. It has over 700 members from almost 60 countries making EWEA the worlds largest and most powerful wind energy network. Rue dArlon 80 B-1040 Brussels Belgium www.ewea.org
  21. 21. To download the pdf version click hereIf you want to see more statistics, reports, news andinformation about wind energy event please visit EWEA’swebsite www.ewea.org or contact us atcommunication@ewea.org

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