The document discusses past and projected growth in the global solar PV market from 2001-2011 and beyond. It notes that the market grew at an average annual rate of 52% from 2001-2010, with particularly rapid growth in 2009-2010. Germany has been the leading country for installed capacity but its market may be nearing saturation. Module prices declined sharply from 2008-2010. The document considers whether the solar PV market will continue growing at similar rates or begin to slow and outlines optimistic and conservative scenarios for market growth through 2020.

1. 9-11-2010 1

2. 9-11-2010 2

3. The experts
9-11-2010 3

4. Observations…
24-01-2011 4

5. The Global PV market
WORLD PV MARKET
[MWp/year]
NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER
18,000
16,000
CAGR: 52%
14,000
12,000
10,000
Crisis, what crisis?
8,000
6,000 2009: +15% growth
2010: +100%
4,000
2011: +15%...?
2,000
-
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

6. Market hard to predict…
WORLD PV MARKET WORLD PV MARKET
[MWp/year] [MWp/year] 2011 FORECAST NEWLY INSTALLED PV
2009 FORECAST NEWLY INSTALLED
PV POWER POWER
12,000 18,000
16,000
10,000
14,000
8,000 12,000
10,000
6,000
8,000
4,000 6,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
- -
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

7. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Germany
Italy
Czech
Republik
USA
52% global
Japan
21 MW/day…
market share;
France
China
Belgium
South
Korea
Australia
2010: Germany…and the rest

8. What will happen in 2011?

9. Module prices in decline…
Solarfun (NASDAQ)
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
-/- 59%
[$/Wp]
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Q2-­‐08
Q3-­‐08
Q4-­‐08
Q1-­‐09
Q2-­‐09
Q3-­‐09
Q4-­‐09
Q1-­‐10
Q2-­‐10
Q3-­‐10
Q4-­‐10
Q1-­‐11
9

10. Germany: the engine of the solar
industry…
16000
[MWp/year]
14000
12000
?
10000
Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty
8000 Images, Inc.
6000
4000
2000
0
10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
© Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model

11. Saturation of German market?
• 2010: PV electricity = 2.1%
• CAGR = 68% (2002-2010)
• Continuation feasible? 2015:
– 105 GW/yr
– 250 GW cumulative
– 31,5% of electricity consumption
• FiT reductions = ‘run on last
subsidies’?
• Germany: ‘trainer PV industry…’

12. Decreasing German FiT
reaching grid-parity
per July: 15%
reduction

13. The Future…

14. Wind versus PV: 9 years’ difference
25.0
[GWp/yr]
Anticipated growth
20.0 of PV market
15.0
10.0
Wind energy data for 9
years ago; 2008 data
generated in 1999
5.0
PV market volume [GWp]
Wind energy market [GWp]
0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

15. Wind versus solar energy
60
Wind
Energy
market
[GWp]
30% CAGR
50
PV
market
volume
[GWp]
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009

16. PV market growth scenarios
160
[GWp/yr]
140
Optimistic growth
scenario of 30%
120
Growth scenario
CAGR Wind –
100 of 25% > 2014 energy: 30%/year
€ 500 billion
80
60
40
25%/year
20
€ 190 billion
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
© SolarPlaza June 2008; Data source: analyses by SolarPlaza based on various sources

17. 5 years ago &
5 years from now…
2006: 2011: 2016:
Global market [GWp]: 1.8 >17 >40
First Solar [MWp]: 100 >2250 >8000*
c-Si Module [$/Wp]: ≈4.50 1.80 <1.15
* Solarplaza 2016 estimate: 30% growth 2013-2016

18. Growth electricity consumption
World Net Electricity Power Generation
[Trillion kWh/year] EIA forecast [GW] Fully covered
3,000
by new PV
30 power
+16%
2,500
25
2,000
20
15
1,500
10
1,000
Expected new
5
500
PV power
0
-­‐
2015
2010
2015

19. 2016: Grid parity…
What will happen?
• 3 kWp PV ≈ 5,5 k€
– € 0,24/kWh (Belgium)
– € 0,16 (Spain)
• Electricity = commodity
• ‘run on PV’?
• All manufacturers sold
out? PV = Sold
Out!

20. Market survey…
• James Surowiecki: “The
Wisdom of Crowds”
• “Large groups of people are
smarter than an elite few”
9-11-2010 20

21. De Belgische PV markt:
Nieuw geïnstalleerde MW’en in 2011:
• <150 MW
• <300 MW
• <450 MW
9-11-2010 21

22. Grid-parity kan in België bereikt
worden…
(in woningmarkt, zonder subsidies)
1. >10 jaar
2. >5 jaar
3. >2 jaar
9-11-2010 22

23. Om de Belgische markt te
ontwikkelen, zijn groene certificaten
nog nodig gedurende…
• >8 jaar
• >5 jaar
• >2 jaar
9-11-2010 23

24. Hoeveel bent u zelf bereid meer te
betalen voor pure zonnestroom van
uw eigen dak?
• Nee, niets
• €0.01-0.03 per kWh
• >€0.03 per kWh
(ca. €90/jaar)

25. 24-01-2011 25

26. 9-11-2010 2
6

27. 24-01-2011 27

28. Markt onderzoek
Hoe lang bent u al actief op het gebied
van zonne-energie (PV)?
• Meer dan 5 jaar
• Enkele jaren
• Net gestart

29. De produktiekosten van
zonnestroom zijn in België in 2013…
1. >€ 0.25/kWh
2. >€ 0.20/kWh
3. >€ 0.20/kWh
9-11-2010 29

30. De verkoopprijs van een c-Si
module in 2012 is…
1. >€ 1.50/Wp
2. >€ 1.30/Wp
3. >€ 1.10/Wp
9-11-2010 30