Strengthening pensions: the economic context

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CUPE’s national pension trustee training began with a panel on the state of public and workplace pensions. CUPE economist Toby Sanger kicked off the discussion with a overview of how the economic crisis and its fallout will affect pensions.

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Strengthening pensions: the economic context

  1. 1. CUPE Pension Trustee Training 24 January 2010, Ottawa Economic Context Toby Sanger, CUPE National
  2. 2. Public sector job growth strong in past decade 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Public employees - annual increase Average 1976-89 Average 1989-99 Average 1999-09
  3. 3. Earnings growth – likely to be lower in public sector 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Earnings growth - Average Weekly Earnings
  4. 4. Inflation low but moving up 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 CPI Inflation CPI Forecast TD Bank
  5. 5. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2000/01 2000/07 2001/01 2001/07 T-Bills 2002/01 2002/07 2003/01 2003/07 2004/01 10yr Bonds 2004/07 2005/01 2005/07 2006/01 2006/07 2007/01 T-Bill forecast 2007/07 Interest rates: 2008/01 2008/07 2009/01 2009/07 almost nowhere to go but up 2010/01 Bond forecast 2010/07 2011/01 2011/07
  6. 6. 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 0 Dec-86 Nov-87 Nov-88 Nov-89 Nov-90 Nov-91 Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Toronto Stock Exchange Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04

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