Rural Oregon 2015
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Analyzing demographic and economic trends across rural Oregon and rural America at large. Topics include educational attainment, employment, industrial structure, labor force participation, migration, population and the quality of jobs.
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Rural Oregon 2015
- 1. 1 Rural Oregon Analyzing Demographic and Economic Trends Across Rural Oregon and a Look Ahead September 2015 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 2. 2 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Oregon’s Nonmetropolitan Areas U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Regions Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ Regions Prior to 2011, Eastern Oregon Nonmetropolitan Area consisted of Eastern and North Central
- 3. 3 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Rural America is Recovering Slower than Metros
- 4. 4 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Rural Oregon is No Exception -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 07 09 11 13 15 Oregon and the Great Recession Employment Change From Peak Urban Oregon Rural Oregon Data: Seasonally-Adjusted, 3 Month Average, Latest data point: June 2015 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 5. 5 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Partly Due to Less Diverse Economies Bigger cities have more diverse economies (advertising firms, ballet dancers, etc). Less industrial diversification not necessarily bad. In good times for your region’s specialty, economy really grows. In bad times, your local economy really suffers however. E.g. Rural Oregon with timber in 1960s and 1970s. North Dakota with oil and gas in 2000s.
- 6. 6 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Exposure to Housing and Government Extremely High Rural Oregon economies had 37% of payroll tied directly to housing and government prior to the Great Recession. The two biggest drags following the Great Recession where housing and government. As migration flows return, so too is the housing industry. Public sector is stabilized and adding jobs in select locations. Not Curry or Josephine however. 9.8% 15.5% 10.3% 16.5% 12.7% 24.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Housing Government Housing and Government in Oregon Share of Local Payroll, 2007 Urban Oregon Rural Housing = Construction, Wood Product Manufacturing, Furniture Stores, Building Material and Garden Supply Store, Real Estate | Data: 2007 QCEW | Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 7. 7 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Good News: Job Growth Has Returned, but…
- 8. 8 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis …Only the Gorge is Fully Recovered, and…
- 9. 9 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis ...Individual Counties Differ Considerably
- 10. 10 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Key Issue: Demographics • Significant Baby Boomer population in Rural Oregon • Few in root setting years when people settle down, start their careers in earnest, get married, buy a house and start a family0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Group Oregon Population by Age, 2015 Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Rural Oregon Urban Oregon Root Setting Years, 25-34
- 11. 11 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Participation Drops with Age • Rural counties tend to be older, have lower participation rates • Impacts productive capacity of regional economy Clatsop Coos Crook Curry Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jefferson Klamath Lake Lincoln Malheur Morrow Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Wheeler Benton Clackamas Columbia Deschutes Jackson Josephine Lane Linn Multnomah Polk Washington Yamhill U.S. OR 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% LaborForceParticipationRate Share of Population 65 Years and Older Rural Oregon Urban Oregon Data: 2013 ACS, 5 Year Estimates | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 12. 12 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Potential Growth Likely Shrinking -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% U.S. Oregon U.S. Oregon Gorge NE SE S. Coast N. Coast Metros Rural Rural Oregon Rural Labor Force Shrinking Change from 2007 to 2014 Source: BLS, Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economci Analysis
- 13. 13 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis However, Influx of Migrants is Strong • The Timber Belt suffered an economic collapse and restructuring just as severe as the Rust Belt • Households moved away from the Rust Belt in search of jobs • Households keep moving into the Timber Belt
- 14. 14 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis …To Nearly All Oregon Counties… Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah PolkSherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 NetMigrationfromOtherStates Net Migration from Other Areas in Oregon Net Migration of Tax Filers: Number per 1,000 Tax Returns, 1995-2011 Losses to other states and other Oregon counties Losses to Oregon counties outstrip gains from other states Gains from other states outstrip losses to Oregon counties Gains from Oregon counties outstrip losses to other states Gains from other states and other Oregon counties Losses to other states outstrip gains from Oregon counties
- 15. 15 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis …But Different Type of Migrant Gaining experienced and some wealthy households, losing working age families on net 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Health Care Cash Contributions ShareofTotalExpenditures Older Households Spend More On Health and Cash Contributions 55-64 65-74 75+ Source: BLS, Consumer Expenditure Survey $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 Expenditures Wealth Household Finances for Top Half of the Income Distribution 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute
- 16. 16 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Important Forward Looking Indicator Looks OK for Rural Oregon 33.1% 32.5% 18.7% 18.6% 24.7% 21.8% 18.3% 17.6% 17.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Oregon U.S. Oregon U.S. Gorge North Coast South- east North- east South Coast Metro Rural Rural Oregon Educational Attainment 25-64 Years Old, Share with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Data: 2013 ACS, 5 Year Estimates | Source: Census, USDA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis • Gorge and N. Coast rank among best rural areas in entire country • Rest of Rural Oregon right around the average yet above the typical area (above the median)
- 17. 17 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Quality of Jobs in Rural Oregon Rural job growth slower than metros Middle-wage jobs lacking everywhere High-wage jobs stronger in rural Oregon than rural America over past decade
- 18. 18 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Occupational Mix is Solid • Good overall mix between high-, middle- and low-wage jobs relative to rural America • Strong concentrations in scientists (foresters and related) and agriculture (includes fishing and timber) • Ag nationwide is low-wage work, however on coast and in southern Oregon it is much better paying • Lower on architecture/ engineering, computer/ math and production occupations This is combined Coastal, Eastern and N. Central nonmetropolitan areas
- 19. 19 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Rural Oregon is Good Place to Grow Up • Eastern Oregon areas among top third of all U.S. for economic mobility • 700+ areas • La Grande and Ontario are typical • Southern Oregon below average, most likely due to timing of research which follows children born in early 80s • Worst possible time to start the clock on southern Oregon due to timber industry
- 20. 20 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Pockets of Strength While Broad Prosperity is Lacking, Not All Hope is Lost • On the coast, dairy, fishing and tourism are strong • In the gorge, beer, drones and fruit are doing well • Out east, manufacturing expanding, wheat harvests have been good and Morrow is booming • Down south, timber industry is adding some jobs and migration flows are returning
- 21. 21 Regional Overviews Facts and Figures by Rural Oregon Region
- 22. 22 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Columbia Gorge Gilliam, Hood River, Sherman, Wasco, Wheeler
- 23. 23 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis North Coast Clatsop, Lincoln, Tillamook
- 24. 24 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis South Coast Coos, Curry
- 25. 25 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Northeast Oregon Baker, Grant, Morrow, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa
- 26. 26 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Southeast Oregon Harney, Klamath, Lake, Malheur
- 27. 27 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Contact www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis joshua.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052