This material summarizes research conducted by Sask Trends Monitor for Onagon International and the City of Swift Current.

1. 1
Competitive Advantage Analysis
for Swift Current
Research prepared for:
Onagon International and
The City of Swift Current
November 2013
Doug Elliott
Sask Trends Monitor
444 19th Avenue
Regina, Saskatchewan
S4N 1H1
306-522-5515
sasktrends@sasktel.net
www.sasktrends.ca
Background and Notes
 This material summarizes research conducted by Sask Trends Monitor for Onagon International and the City
of Swift Current.
 A Competitive Advantage Analysis (CAA) is a particular kind of statistical analysis that looks at economic
trends in a community or region by industry group1. The CAA is an examination of past trends with a view to
identifying industry sectors that have under-performed or over-performed relative to other industries and
other cities or regions.
 The CAA is not a forecast of future opportunities. Although it may help inform future growth, it is only one of
the tools that can be used to identify the strengths and weaknesses of a city’s economy.
 The CAA compares a region’s economic performance by industry group over a period of time compared with
those same industries in another economy over the same period. So there are five choices that the analyst
must make.
 Choice #1: Choosing the Region
• The city of Swift Current and the surrounding RM (called the Swift Current Census Agglomeration or CA
by Statistics Canada) is the region chosen for analysis. The census data used for the analysis is based on
where you live, not where you work, so these figures measure employment trends among those who live
in or near the city of Swift Current (see map on page 5). It excludes those who live outside the RM and
work in the city and it includes those who live in the city and work outside the RM.
1 The methodology used in a competitive advantage analysis (CAA) was developed by economist Dr. Emanuel
Carvalho from the University of Waterloo. It is based on work he did for the Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs.
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 2

2. 2
Background and Notes (continued)
 Choice #2: Choosing the Time Frame
• A longer (2001 to 2011) period was chosen over a shorter one because the CAA analysis is better at
examining long term trends than short term ones.
 #3: Choosing the Economic Measure
• Employment was used as the economic measure because it is the only statistic available. This has both
advantages and disadvantages.
• Employment has the advantage of being easy to understand – a job is a readily identifiable measure of
economic success for an individual if not an economy.
• Relatively detailed data from Statistics Canada’s decennial census provides employment by industry
group at city level.
• Changes in productivity can affect changes in employment; a firm or industry may be more successful by
every other measure except employment.
• Changes in hours of work, multiple job holdings, and commuting can cause problems in the employment
data.
 #4: Choosing the Comparison Economy
• Urban economies are different than rural ones so the comparison was made to the aggregate of the
eight largest urban centres in the province, namely Saskatoon, Regina, Prince Albert, Moose Jaw,
Yorkton, Swift Current, North Battleford, and Estevan.
• The urban areas included the surrounding “bedroom communities” as well as the city proper.
• These 8 urban centres contain 60% of the province’s population, 63% of employment, and 56% of GDP.
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 3
Background and Notes (continued)
 #5: Choosing the Industry Groups
• A more detailed industry breakdown is preferred but the data quality deteriorates as the level of detail
increases. As a compromise, we chose 22 industry groupings for the analysis.
 The 2011 data are based on the voluntary part of the Statistics Canada Census (called the National Household
Survey or NHS). Because the NHS is a voluntary survey, the 2011 data will be of poorer quality than the data
from the 2001 and 2006 mandatory censuses. The response rate for the Swift Current CA in 2011 was 77%
which is relatively high compared with other Saskatchewan cities.
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 4

3. 3
Background and Notes (continued)
 When we refer to Swift
Current and the other seven
urban centres, we are
including the surrounding
“bedroom communities” as
well as the city proper.
 For the Swift Current CA, this
means that we are counting
the number of people living in
the city and the RM of Swift
Current, regardless of where
they work.
 In 2011, the population of the
city was 15,503 and the
population of the surrounding
RM was 2,032. In 2011:
• 525 reported living in the
RM and working in Swift
Current; and
• 590 reported living in the
city and working in the
RM.
Waldeck
Swift Current
Swift Current No. 137
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 5
Employment by Industry Group, 2011
 In 2011, employment among
Swift Current CA residents was
9,585 compared with 8,805 in
2001.
 Health care and retail trade
are the largest groups among
the 22 chosen for the analysis.
 Although the analysis included
mining and the forestry sector,
these industry groups are not
shown in any of the graphs
because the numbers are too
small to be meaningful.
 Public sector industry groups
(e.g. health care and public
administration) are included
for completeness but are not
normally considered as
economic drivers.
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Health care and social services
Retail trade
Accommodation and food
Educational services
Agriculture
Public administration
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance and insurance
Personal and household services
Professional, scientific, technical services
Transportation
Wholesale trade
Support for mining, oil/gas
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Business support
Oil and gas extraction
Information and culture
Electricity, water, natural gas utility
Real estate
Mining
Forestry, fishing, hunting, trapping
Employment by Industry Group, 2011, Swift Current CA
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 6

4. 4
Components of the Competitive Advantage
Analysis
There are four components to the CAA that are applied to each industry sector. All are
interesting and useful in their own right.
• Location Quotients – a measure of industry concentration
• Shift/Share Analysis – a measure of growth adjusted for “normal” patterns
• Leading/Lagging Analysis – measures relative growth rates
• Industry Classification – a summary of the three measures
Location Quotients
 The location quotient measures
the size of the industry in the
region relative to the other urban
centres in Saskatchewan.
Industries with a location
quotient in excess of 1.25 are
classified as “high”; those less
than 0.75 are classified as “low”.
 This doesn’t mean the industries
are small or large, just that they
are relatively smaller or larger
than in the other urban areas in
Saskatchewan.
 Industries with a ‘high” location
quotient tend to export
goods/services from the region.
Goods and services probably
need to be imported for those
with a “low” location quotient.
 Swift Current has three industry
groups with very high location
quotients – oil/gas, support for
oil/gas, and agriculture.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Oil and gas extraction
Support for mining, oil/gas
Agriculture
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Accommodation and food
Finance and insurance
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Health care and social services
Transportation
Wholesale trade
Personal and household services
Business support
Educational services
Construction
Professional, scientific, technical services
Electricity, water, natural gas utility
Public administration
Information and culture
Real estate
Location Quotients, 2001 and 2011, Swift Current CA
2001
2011
high
medium
low
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 8

5. 5
Low and Medium Location Quotients
 This figure is the same as the one
on the previous page but
focusses on the industry groups
with lower location quotients.
 From 2001 to 2011, the location
quotient declined significantly for:
• construction;
• retail trade;
• wholesale trade;
• real estate; and
• utilities.
 The location quotient increased
significantly for:
• arts, entertainment,
recreation;
• accommodation and food
services;
• finance and insurance; and
• business support.
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 9
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Accommodation and food
Finance and insurance
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Health care and social services
Transportation
Wholesale trade
Personal and household services
Business support
Educational services
Construction
Professional, scientific, technical…
Electricity, water, natural gas utility
Public administration
Information and culture
Real estate
Location Quotients, 2001 and 2011, Swift Current CA
2001
2011
highmediumlow
Shift/Share Analysis , 2001 to 2011, Absolute Terms
 The shift/share analysis breaks
down employment change into
three components:
• a provincial effect;
• an industry effect; and
• a regional effect.
 The regional effect is the most
interesting because it measures
what part of the employment
change is attributable to factors
unique to the city. These are
changes that cannot be explained
by the performance of the sector
in other cities.
 Measured in terms of the
absolute change in employment,
Swift Current has a large positive
regional effect in agriculture, the
arts/entertainment/recreation
group, finance, oil/gas, and the
accommodation/food group.
 There are even larger negative
regional effects in construction
and retail trade.
-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
Agriculture
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Finance and insurance
Accommodation and food
Oil and gas extraction
Health care and social services
Business support
Educational services
Information and culture
Transportation
Electricity, water, natural gas utility
Manufacturing
Public administration
Real estate
Professional, scientific, technical services
Personal and household services
Wholesale trade
Support for mining, oil/gas
Retail trade
Construction
Shift Share Analysis, Swift Current CA
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 10

6. 6
Shift/Share Analysis, 2001 to 2011, Percentage Terms
 This is the same as the previous
graph but the regional effect is
expressed in terms of percentage
change rather than in absolute
employment.
 This calculation shows that the
decline in retail trade was not as
dramatic as it looks because it is
a very large sector.
 The top and bottom four industry
groups are the same in
percentage terms as in absolute
terms but the order is different.
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Oil and gas extraction
Arts, entertainment, recreation
Finance and insurance
Agriculture
Business support
Accommodation and food
Information and culture
Health care and social services
Educational services
Transportation
Manufacturing
Public administration
Personal and household services
Professional, scientific, technical services
Electricity, water, natural gas utility
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Real estate
Support for mining, oil/gas
Construction
average annual change from 2001 to 2011
Shift Share Analysis, Swift Current CA
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 11
Leading/Lagging Analysis
 The leading/lagging analysis compares, for each industry group:
• employment growth in Swift Current relative to other urban centres in the same industry; and
• employment growth in other urban centres relative to total employment growth.
 The graphs on the next two pages map the industry groups in other urban areas on the horizontal axis with
the city’s performance on the vertical axis.
 Industry groups in the upper right quadrant are leading growth both in the city and in other urban centres.
They are classified as “drivers”. The oil/gas sector is in this quadrant.
 Those in the lower left are lagging in both cases and are classified as vulnerable or challenging. The utilities
group and real estate are in this sector.
 Those in the upper left quadrant are typically in a state of evolution. The art/entertainment/recreation group
and the accommodation/food services group are in this quadrant.
 Those in the lower right are classified as either modest, yielding, or promising, depending on their size.
• The mining/oil and gas support group is classified as promising.
• Construction is classified as yielding.
• The professional services group is classified as yielding.
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 12

7. 7
Leading/Lagging Analysis, Swift Current CA (1 of 2)
agriculture
oil & gas
mining, oil &
gas support
utilities
construction
manufacturing
wholesale trade
retail trade
transportation
information
& culture
finance &
insurance
real estate
professional, scientific,
technical services
business support
education services
health care &
social services
arts, entertainment, recreation
accommodation
& food
personal &
household services
public administration
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
urban sector relative growth
Swift
Current
relative
growth
DRIVERS
VULNERABLE
CHALLENGING
MODEST YIELDING
OR PROMISING
EVOLVING
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 13
Leading/Lagging Analysis, Swift Current CA (2 of 2)
agriculture
utilities
manufacturing
wholesale trade
retail trade
transportation
information
& culture
finance &
insurance
real estate
professional, scientific,
technical services
business support
education services
health care &
social services
accommodation
& food
personal &
household services
public administration
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
urban sector relative growth
Swift
Current
relative
growth
DRIVERS
VULNERABLE
CHALLENGING
MODEST YIELDING
OR PROMISING
EVOLVING
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 14

8. 8
Industry Classification Scheme
 The Competitive Advantage Analysis is future oriented in the sense that it classifies the industries in the city
into categories using forward-looking terminology. Some terms used, for example, are:
• Emerging strength
• High priority retention target
• Prospects limited by external trends
 Besides the data quality issues and the use of employment data as a measure of economic success, there are
some problems with the classification scheme.
• The methodology implicitly assumes that employment growth in other urban areas in Saskatchewan is a
measure of success. If the industry group is not growing in other cities but is doing so in Swift Current,
for example, then it is assumed that the sector has limited prospects.
• There is a bias toward large sectors; relatively small industry groups can be classified as an emerging
strength but most are dismissed as having a “weak base”. The concept of a “niche market” doesn’t enter
into the equations.
 In spite of the limitations, the classification does seem to generate the needed debate about which sectors
have limited prospects and which do not. The analysis, to be useful, has to be tempered with a realistic
assessment by the city’s economic players.
 The graphs on the following two pages show the classifications for the Swift Current CA.
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 15
Industry Classification: Swift Current CA (1 of 2)
agriculture
oil & gas
mining, oil &
gas support
utilities
construction
manufacturting
wholesale trade
retail trade
transportation
information
& culture
finance & insurance
real estate
professional, scientific
technical support
business support
education
health care
& social assistance
arts, entertainment
recreation
accommodation &
food services
personal &
household services
public adminstration
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
urban growth
prospects limited
Retention targets
(unless small)
current and emerging strengthsprospects limited
Swift Current relative growth
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 16

9. 9
Industry Classification: Swift Current CA (2 of 2)
agriculture
utilities
manufacturting
wholesale trade
retail trade
transportation
information
& culture
finance & insurance
real estate
business support
education
health care
& social assistance
accommodation &
food services
personal &
household services
public adminstration
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35%
urban growth
prospects limited
Retention targets
(unless small)
current and emerging strengthsprospects limited
Swift Current relative growth
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 17
Industry Classification, Swift Current CA
Industry Group Classification
Agriculture Prospects limited by external trends
Forestry, fishing, trapping Prospects limited by external trends
Oil and gas extraction Current strength
Mining Prospects limited by weak base and declining competitiveness
Support for mining, oil/gas High priority retention target
Electricity, water, natural gas utility High priority retention target
Construction High priority retention target
Manufacturing Prospects limited by external trends and declining competitiveness
Wholesale trade High priority retention target
Retail trade High priority retention target
Transportation Prospects limited by external trends and declining competitiveness
Information and culture Prospects limited by external trends and small base
Finance and insurance Current strength
Real estate Prospects limited by weak base and declining competitiveness
Professional, scientific, technical services High priority retention target
Business support Prospects limited by external trends
Educational services Current strength
Health care and social services Current strength
Arts, entertainment, recreation Prospects limited by external trends
Accommodation and food Prospects limited by external trends
Personal and household services High priority retention target
Public administration Prospects limited by weak base and declining competitiveness
November 11, 2013 DRAFT 18