3. RISE OF ISISRISE OF ISIS
The al-Qaeda offshoot in Iraq, which called itself Islamic
State of Iraq, announced it was merging with Jabhat Al-
Nusra, the "approved" al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria which was
fighting the Assad regime alongside other rebel groups.
It said it would from now on be called Islamic State of Iraq
and al-Sham – al-Sham referring to the historical Levant,
including both Syria and Lebanon.
Loyalists believe that the ISIS is CIA’s creation.
4. CIA assembled a force of more than a hundred
thousand jehadis to fight the left wing government in
afghanistan so as to entice the Soviet Union into
intervening, without calculating the consequences for
itself and the world at large
U.S. also backed jehadis in Syria to topple the secular
regime of Bashar al assad turning it into jihadi crusade.
5.
6. ISIS AND THE CALIPHATEISIS AND THE CALIPHATE
Over a territory larger than United Kingdom and extending
from Aleppo in Syria to Iraq’s Khurdish north with Mosul,
Iraq’s second largest city as its capital, there is a new
political authority led firmly by ISIS
JUNE 30,2014: ISIS announces creation of caliphate in
territories under its control in Iraq and Syria.
7. IS has proclaimed leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi as
“Caliph Ibrahim” and the “Leader of muslim
everywhere”
The Proclaimation specifies that any muslim who fails
to give his undivided allegiance to the new caliph is an
apostate and is living under the penalty of death.
8.
9. INCREASE IN STRENGTHINCREASE IN STRENGTH
OF ISISOF ISIS
Dismissal of half a million strong Iraqi army with
sophisticated knowledge of weapons.
Dismantling of other parts of the state resulting in
complete breakdown of law and order
Arrival of new sectarian elites
Dependence of political parties on armed gangs and
illegal militia
10. SOURCE OF INCOME OFSOURCE OF INCOME OF
ISISISIS
As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, the
organization’s key source of income is oil, especially
in the Syrian provinces of Deir al-Zour and Raqqa and
the Iraqi province of Nineveh.
The other main source of revenue is taxation, or
rather, extortion
The kidnapping of foreigners or wealthy Syrians for
ransom also brings in millions.
14. ISIS used to be al-Qaeda in Iraq
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIS) used to have a different name: al
Qaeda in Iraq.
ISIS and al-Qaeda divorced in February
2014.
Their relationship "had always been
more a matter of mutual interests than of
shared ideology."
15. The conflict between Iraqi
Sunnis and Shias sustains ISIS
ISIS fighters themselves are Sunnis, and
the tension between the two groups is a
powerful recruiting tool for ISIS.
A majority of Iraqis are Shias, but Sunnis
ran the show when Saddam Hussein,
himself Sunni, ruled Iraq.
Thus, Sunnis felt, and still feel, entitled to
larger shares of political power.
16. Iraq’s former Prime Minister
made the ISIS problem worse
Maliki, a Shia Muslim, built a Shia
sectarian state and refused to take steps
to accommodate Sunnis.
Police killed peaceful Sunni protestors and
used anti-terrorism laws to mass-arrest
Sunni civilians.
ISIS cannily exploited that brutality to
recruit new fighters.
19. ISIS isn’t the only anti-government
rebel group
This conflict often gets portrayed as a fight
between the Iraqi government and ISIS.
Iraqi government has assistance from Iran
and Shia militias, while ISIS isn't the only
group battling the Iraqi government.
The most important rebel group beyond
ISIS is Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-
Naqshbandia (JRTN).
21. The Iraqi army is much stronger than
ISIS, but it’s also kind of a mess
ISIS cannot challenge the Iraqi
government for control over the country.
CIA estimates the number of ISIS fighting
strength to be between 20,00 and 31,500.
The Iraqi army has 250,000 troops, plus
armed police.
The Iraqi military also has tanks,
airplanes, and helicopters.
23. The Rising Storm
ISIS has completely changed the
balance of power in the country.
It threatens not just the integrity of Iraq
itself but could also lead to the redrawing
of borders across the wider region.
Expected to deteriorate.
Civil war.
24. The Rising Storm
Security threat to non-muslim nations
also.
Commercial impact.
Immediate effect: Oil prices.
Iranian, Jordanian and Gulf state
companies will be significantly impacted.
25. The Possibilities
Six different scenarios.
Due to the complexity and volatility of the
situation, other outcomes are also
possible.
Impacts on the local, regional and global
security situation.
27. Scenario A
Iraq descends into long-term civil war in
a Syria-style scenario.
All neighbouring countries would be
severely impacted.
Western countries would be subjected to
increased threats of action by militant
Islamists.
Western companies throughout the
Muslim world would also face increased
security threats.
28. Scenario B
Iraq splits into three parts, based on
ethno-religious identities:
a relatively stable Kurdish north
Arab-Shi’a south
a contested Arab-Sunni central area.
31. Scenario B
The new borders are extended into
neighbouring Syria, and possibly into
Turkey and Iran.
Could encourage groups in other Middle
Eastern countries to target similar
outcomes, adding to regional security
risks.
32. Scenario C
As Scenario B, but with conflict
remaining contained within the existing
borders of Iraq.
Syria, Turkey and Iran could face
insurgencies in areas bordering the old
Iraq.
Threats to the stability of other regional
countries and the increased security
risks for Western countries.
35. Scenario D
ISIS over-stretches itself, allowing the
central government, aided by
international support, to regain control of
his country’s central region; however, in
the interim, the Kurds carve out a
separate state.
Unrest in the Kurdish areas of Turkey,
Syria and Iran would increase.
36. Scenario E
ISIS over-stretches itself, allowing the
central government, aided by
international support, to regain control of
Iraq.
Security threats would be lower than in
Scenario D for Turkey, Syria and Iran,
and for Western countries and
companies.
38. Scenario F
ISIS gains control over the whole
country.
In terms of security all neighbouring
countries would be severely impacted.
Western countries would be the subject
of increased threats of action by militant
Islamists.
41. • First look-India is not at immediate threat
from the ISIS.
• Closer look-the threat is a more imminent
one.
42. • Declaration by the newly-named Caliph,
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi:
• “Muslims’ rights are forcibly seized in
China, India, Palestine, Somalia, the
Arabian Peninsula, the Caucasus, Sham
(the Levant), Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia,
Afghanistan, the Philippines, Ahvaz, Iran,
Pakistan, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria and
Morocco, in the East and in the West.
43. • Prisoners are moaning and crying for help.
Orphans and widows are complaining of
their plight. Women who have lost their
children are weeping. Masajid (plural of
masjid) are desecrated and sanctities are
violated… Terrify the enemies of Allah and
seek death in the places where you
expect to find it. Your brothers, on every
piece of this earth, are waiting for you to
rescue them”
That wasn't the only way the Iraqi government helped ISIS grow. The US and Iraqi governments released a huge number of al-Qaeda prisoners from jail, which called for "an unprecedented infusion of skilled, networked terrorist manpower - an infusion at a scale the world has never seen."
attention to the blue ISIS-controlled areas in eastern Syria.
The chaos in Syria allowed ISIS to hold this territory pretty securely.
It's also hugely important as a safe zone. When fighting Syrian troops, ISIS can safely retreat to Iraq; when fighting Iraqis it can go to Syria.
They're Sunni nationalists, many of whom are former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party loyalists. Its leader is Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, a former Saddam deputy.
they want to install a Sunni dictatorship.
but there are signs of friction. In mid-July, residents of Muqdadiya found 12 bodies, corpses of fighters killed in a clash between ISIS and JRTN.
Take ISIS' victory in Mosul. Thirty-thousand Iraqi troops ran from 800 ISIS fighters.
The resultant civil war is highly likely to draw in other countries trying to protect their religious, political, security and commercial interests, as well as jihadi fighters from other countries.
Western countries and companies would also face increased security threats, but of a lower intensity than under Scenario A.
while Kurdish autonomy could encourage groups in other Middle Eastern countries to seek similar outcomes.
while Kurdish autonomy could encourage groups in other Middle Eastern countries to seek similar outcomes.
while Kurdish autonomy could encourage groups in other Middle Eastern countries to seek similar outcomes.
At first look it may seem that apart from concerns over fate of the nationals in Iraq, India is not at immediate threat from the ISIS. The group only seems keen on carving out a caliphate along the Iraqi-Syrian border and in the Middle East.
A closer look, however, reveals that the threat is a more imminent one. ISIS has global ambitions which include carving out an Islamic World Dominion. India will be a prime threat in the achievement of these ambitions.
The address explicitly mentions India as one of the prime targets of the ISIS.
In its recently released world map of the planned dominion areas, ISIS also marks out parts of north-west India. The outfit plan to include many north-western provinces of our country including parts of Gujarat in the planned Islamic caliphate of Khorasan that ISIS aims to achieve.
In the letter sent via WhatsApp and later statements in Urdu and Hindi, Nadwi refers to Al-Baghdadi as Emir-ul-Momineen (Leader of Faithful Muslims) and prays — “May Allah protect you”, urges jihadist organisations in Syria to end their differences, speaks of “good news of victories” in Iraq and advocates that Muslims “abide by” the Emir-ul-Momineen “if he follows Allah’s sharia”; Nadwi appreciates the “united struggle by Iraq’s different jihadist organisations in making the revolution successful” against Iraq’s elected leader Nouri Al-Maliki; he dubs Al-Maliki as “the world’s biggest terrorist” for causing Shia-Sunni differences but praises Al-Baghdadi whose forces are killing Shias in hundreds, having declared them as infidels.
: A young man in Ramanathapuram landed in police custody on Sunday after his photo with a group of friends, all wearing T-shirts bearing the ISIS emblem, appeared on a social networking site.
The three youths from Kalyan, suspected to have joined the Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), are expected to return home from Syria. This is what one of the youngsters, Shaheen Tanki, told his family when he called up
In March this year, Usman Ali of Paranagipettai near Cuddalore, a picturesque coastal village north of Tamil Nadu, was shaken out of his stupor. It was a call on his wife Rokhyaa's mobile. Their son Haja Fakkurudeen (37) had phoned to say he was well and his dream had come true. He was now living in Syria with wife Ayesha Siddika and their three children, and fighting alongside ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) militants against the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Although ISIS is not strictly an insurgent (guerrilla) force, because the group has some heavy weapons and infrastructure, it has made gains despite U.S. airstrikes on these obvious targets
and then to cut off their supplies and reinforcements from Syria using U.S. airstrikes
to root out the group. Right now that falls to the Shi'ite-dominated Iraqi Army and the Kurdish pesh merga militias. Yet these are the same forces that, despite years of training and equipping by the United States, have fared poorly against ISIS.
so far they have advised at only relatively high levels of the Iraqi Army. To be effective, more advisers will be needed to go into the field with Iraqi and Kurdish forces and also call in U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. Army already is drawing up options to send 3,500 more advisors.ining and equipping by the United States, have fared poorly against ISIS.
Despite the fact that the United States has by far the best military in the world for fighting the militaries of other nation-states, it has proved mostly incompetent in fighting guerrillas for one reason or another -- for example, the U.S. armed forces took too long to defeat the Viet Cong in Vietnam
the youth are being recruited from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka, and that they are being trained in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria to become Fidayeen.