This document summarizes a presentation by Queen's Global Markets on ISIS and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The presentation covers the origins and rise of ISIS, key players in the region including their strategic interests and responses to ISIS, and predictions about resolving the conflicts. It analyzes countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria and their stances. It argues the US must work with regional powers to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue to bring stability and defeat ISIS in the long run.
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ISIS-and-The-Middle-East.pptx
1. Queen’s Global Markets
A PREMIER UNDERGRADUATE THINK-TANK
ISIS and the Middle East
Kyle Butler | Allan Lee | Sarah Fadel | Shahaan Azhar
10.29.2014
The Fate of Hegemony in the Middle East
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Agenda
1. Religion and the War on Terror
2. Current ISIS Operations
3. Key Players: strategic interests in the Middle East
4. Conclusions & Predictions
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Geographic Breakdown of Ideologies
Religious discrepancies in the Middle East insinuate conflict
Source: The Shia Revival
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The War on Terror: U.S.’ Failure
The United States made a number of decisions which resulted in its failure in the “war on terror”
Ignoring Key Players Ineffective Iraqi Government
Source: Huffington Post
The US failed to deal with two key players during the
climax of the war on terror: Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan
Donors from Saudi Arabia have contributed the
majority of funds to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide
In addition Bin Laden was a member of the Saudi
elite as well his father was an associate of the Saudi
monarch
Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence assisted in the
evacuation of thousands of top commanders of both
the Taliban and Al Qaeda
The US failed to confront both of these players
because they are important American allies
Saudi Arabia is a key market for American arms as
well a key source of oil
The US bears a large amount of responsibility for
political turmoil that has occurred in Iraq
US put a tremendous amount of pressure on
Baghdad to complete its transformation to a
inclusive democratic government
American officials including Vice President Joe
Biden and Brett McGurk supported Maliki over
other candidates
The Obama administration had been pushing out
Maliki since June which resulted in another
rushed appointment of al-Abadi
America has tried to rush the Iraqi political
process which has resulted in the poor results
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Iraq’s Leadership
Will Iraq’s new leadership result in change?
Saddam Hussein Nouri al-Maliki Haider al-Abadi
Source: BBC
Committed vast atrocities by
using chemical weapons
against Kurds and Shia citizens
during his thirty year tenure
Continual marginalization of
Kurdish and Shia population
fueled bitter animosity between
various sects
Deposition created an
opportunity for Iraqi Shias to
gain greater control of the
country
Maliki was elected, largely with
backing from the US, with the
goal of restoring peace
between the Iraqi factions
Instead, Maliki took the
occasion to seek revenge
against the Sunni brutalities by
handing over the majority of
legislative power to Shias
This has insinuated the current
crisis as ISIS gains support
from enraged Sunnis
New PM as mounting pressure
caused Maliki to resign
Abadi has the incredibly
difficult task to rebuild trust
between the Government,
Sunnis, and Kurds
Although he belongs to the
fairly extreme Dawa party, his
political stance during his
tenure was generally more
moderate than those of both
his predecessor and his party
Picture of Hussein Picture of Hussein
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ISIS Background
Beginnings of the world’s most radical extremist organization
ISIS Origins
Recent Uprising
Originally founded as Al Qaeda’s Iraqi offspring, but has separated due to differences in ideology regarding use
of brutality and force
After gaining much influence in the early 2000s, successful American lead strikes as well as local backlash for
ISIS brutality had all but decimated ISIS forces and support
As American troops withdrew, ISIS focused on prison breaks to free and recruit terrorists and Hussein’s ranks of
experienced ex-commanders
Vision of establishing an Islamic State based upon radical interpretation of Islam among Sunni majority districts
among Iraq, Syria, and beyond
Source: Wikipedia
Took advantage of civil war in Syria to recruit
members and promote extremist ideology
Victories against Syrian government provided
funding, weapons, and battle seasoned extremists
that allowed ISIS to confront Iraqi military
ISLAMIC STATE OF
IRAQ AND THE LEVANT
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ISIS Conquest
The speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard
Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal
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ISIS Conquest
The speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard
Iraq Northern Offensive
Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal
After capturing the major city of
Fallujah in January, the Iraqi
government halfheartedly
fought back with little success
In June, 800 ISIS militants
captured Mosul overnight
defeating 30,000+ Sunni
soldiers
ISIS overran Syrian and Iraqi
military bases as well
massacred villages at a time,
destroying the remaining
confidence in Iraqi soldiers
ISIS took advantage of panic to
attack multiple cities while Iraqi
army was in disarray
Map of ISIS conquests on June 23, with the majority of gains coming after June 5th
Mosul attack
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ISIS Power
Unprecedented military and financial resources for a terrorist organization
Key Resources
Source: (Map) Aaron Y. Zelin, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence
Richest terrorist organization with over $1 billion
Large cache of US military arms, mortars, and
armored vehicles captured from fleeing Iraqi army
Steady stream of revenue from illicit business
activities
o I.e. Smuggling oil and gas, selling electricity to
Syrian government, collecting tax and ransom
o Many new recruits were attracted to ISIS due to
high wages that few jobs could provide
o Money used to buy black market weapons
Areas of Strength
Many battle hardened extremists with experience fighting
against Americans and Assad
Fast moving strikes in parallel with suicide attacks are
unpredictable tactics that are hard to fend against
Powerful social media campaign that instills fear in
opponents and attracts recruits that include foreign
jihadists
Professionally designed propaganda focuses on
marginalization and oppression of Sunnis by Shia and
has been used effectively to recruit and gain local support
o Extensively uses videos, magazines, and news to
promote ideology
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Current ISIS Situation
Halting ISIS and the counterattack
US Action
Source: Foreign Policy, Wikipedia, Vox.com
Obama’s ISIS Strategy
Repeatedly stressed “no boots on ground” policy and
stated that the conflict can only be resolved by Iraqis
US and allies have sent over military advisors and
launched coalition airstrikes against ISIS targets
Freeing ISIS held territory will be a long term
endeavor driven mainly by Iraqi forces
Counter Attack 1: Air Strikes
Main Defense Against ISIS Short Term
Air strikes has worked effectively in repelling large
scale ISIS attacks
Pipelines and refineries targeted to stop main source
of ISIS cash flow
Targets also include heavy artilleries and vehicles that
have delivered ISIS game changing firepower
Counter Attack 2: Local forces
Long Term Solution (6-12 months)
Iraqi army is mainly on the defensive but should hold
out well since the majority of Iraqi held territory is
now of Shia majority with loyal soldiers and tribes
Structural changes within the army will be required to
fix corruption, poor training, and moral before
launching offensive against ISIS
US currently arming and training fiercely patriotic
Kurdish and moderate Syrian rebels to fight ISIS
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Turkey
Despite public disapproval, privately Turkey stands to benefit from ISIS’
existence
Turkey will refuse to cooperate with NATO requests for military support
and access to its military base since ISIS allows Turkey to absolve itself
temporarily from its longstanding troubled relationship with the Turkish
Kurds, including the terrorist organization PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party)
Turkey may help fight ISIS if a no-fly zone is established against the
Syrian regime, which would eliminate Assad’s strategic air power
advantage over rebels
We believe that Turkey’s desire to stifle Kurdish power outweighs its
desire to see the Assad regime topple and as such, Turkey will continue to
abstain from intervening in the fight against ISIS
Why the NATO nation is unwilling to fight ISIS
Turkey has been
criticized for its role as a
bystander
Source: Foreign Policy
Turkey’s Foreign Policy
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Syria
Opportunistic extremists intensify the battle for supremacy
Source: The Economist, BBC
A blessing in disguise
The power vacuum and armed
conflict allowed ISIS to easily capture
vast territory in Syria.
There has been widespread conflict
between various Sunni based rebel
groups and ISIS, although they share
the same goal.
The Syrian government will refrain
from directly fighting ISIS. Instead it
will conserve its resources and wait
for international forces to weaken the
group.
As the international coalition attacks
ISIS, the Syrian government can
consolidate its troops and eliminate
other Sunni groups vying for control
Ultimately, the Syrian government
will be an unlikely beneficiary of the
current conflict
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Saudi Arabia
The Gulf’s most powerful country remains fearful of reprisal
Source: Financial Times, Huffington Post
Current Operations
Future Actions Long-term effects
We believe that the Kingdom will side with Iran for the first time in its diplomatic history, since ISIS directly
undermines the Islamic beliefs that the Saudi state are built upon
The KSA has been funding Sunni factions to fight against Bashar Al- Assad’s Shia-led government for the past
three years in Syria without much success
Saudi Arabia will only remain impartial with Iran
until the conflict is over. Following the demise of
ISIS, it will once again resume its plan to debilitate
the Shia power
Riyadh will also devise a strategy to gain control of
Shia-ruled Syria in order to prevent the Iranian
alliance from forming
The Saudi government sees this as an opportunity
to consolidate the region and extend their powerful
influence
The kingdom will continue to support various
groups that seek to defeat the ISIS
However, Saudi will refrain from directly supplying
military, logistical, or intelligence-based resources
and assets out of apprehension regarding
repercussions from ultra-conservative nationals
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Iran
An unusual alliance convolutes an already complex situation
Source: Wall Street Journal, The Star
Iran’s mission is to create an alliance
between Shia-majority countries so that it
challenge regional powers
As a result of Iran’s long-term plans, Iran
was the first country to aid Iraq against
the ISIS assault
Iran will continue to quell the extremist
threat in Iraq using all means necessary.
It will also continue to support the Syrian
government against Sunni rebel groups
Iran will likely appear stronger after this
conflict. By helping get rid of extremist
Sunni rebel groups in both Iraq and Syria,
it will be in a position to further challenge
Saudi Arabia as the dominant player in
the region and will move closer to
creating a Shia alliance.
Iran’s Plan for a Shia Nexus
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The United States in the Middle East
America continues its decade-long struggle to establish stability given its deteriorating status as the world’s Moral Leader
Expected Foreign Policy The U.S. Juggling Act
We believe that American policy will be directed at
finding a U.S.-friendly government, whether
democratic or not, especially since most
democratically elected or militaristically enforced
governments in the region perpetuate extremist
Islamic regimes
America will attempt to leverage its diplomatic
relations with key players Iran, Israel and Saudi
Arabia to weaken the Assad Regime, and ultimately
remove the disorder that fuels ISIS’ operations
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Resolution of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis
Survival contingent on Instability
ISIS can only survive as long as there is
disorder amongst its neighbors, but once
that is resolved, the new status quo will
defeat it
ISIS itself has no ability to create the new
status quo
Iranian Nuclear Crisis
Resolution of Iranian nuclear issue will be
fundamental to order
Iranians feel threatened by the U.S. and
Saudi Arabia, so they support Assad in
Syria; they must feel secure before
abandoning Assad regime
Reconstitution of Iraq and Syria
A reconstituted Iraq and Syria will be strong
enough to topple ISIS and be more
successful at dealing with similar groups in
the future
The United States must work with regional players to resolve the Iranian nuclear program
How to Defeat ISIS Feasibility
The U.S. continues to be the global hegemon
U.S. can use its influence to achieve regional
order
The U.S. has already made unprecedented moves
towards accepting the Iranian Nuclear Program
Obama administration has engaged in serious
and positive discussions with Iran
American Policy can reasonably impose a loose
resolution between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran
Unlike other issues such as the Palestinian-
Israeli conflict, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran
seem willing to cooperate on ISIS
In general, the costs of enforcing undemocratic
regimes weaken groups like ISIS over time.
History is on Democracy’s side in the long term
Editor's Notes
Key Takeaways
Religious Overview
The larger part of the Middle East is Sunni, with only Iran and Iraq having a majority Shia population
Meaningless Borders
Physical borders lack meaning, whereas separation is based on differences in beliefs
Political clashes
Although Syria is primarily Sunni, Syrian PM Bashar Al- Assad and his remaining government is Shia.
ISIS stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, and has recently rebranded and referred to as IS - Islamic State
ISIS On The Offense
ISIS still attacking new targets daily though not as successfully due to air strikes
Increased use of suicide bombings attacks in battle reflects signs of desperation
Geographically important Anbar province (Sunni majority) between Syria and Baghdad still at risk of falling into ISIS hands
While Turkey has not directly aided ISIS despite accusations, they have allowed rebel fighters to cross freely in and out of the Turkey-Syria border
The Syrian civil war is ongoing, with over 190,000 casualties reported.
Saudi Arabia has long been accused of backing an array of Sunni groups that seek to advance the Kingdom’s agenda, both financially and legislatively
Saudi suffered severe backlash in 2003 when Islamists staged a ruthless attack on foreigners living in Riyadh. This led the royal family to tone down their rhetoric regarding conservative Islam
While the current conquest is to capture Iraq and Syria, a major goal for ISIS is to gain control of the eastern part of Saudi Arabia, which is where the holiest shrines in Islam are located
Historical Significance:
Iran and Iraq fought against each other in the first Persian war between 1980 – 1988
However, following the end of the Iraqi occupation, Iran has worked to rectify the relations between the two countries with the goal of strengthening the few Shia-ruling nations
Remarkable:
The current crisis has remarkably caused the US and other western countries to side with Iran. While these countries have acrimonious relations, they are united over their goal to topple the imminent extremist threat
Support:
Iran quickly dispatched members of the elite Quds Force and deployed several fighter jets
Iran is continuing to provide logistical, intelligence, and armed support to Iraq