The document discusses Switzerland's vision of achieving a "2000-watt society" through significantly reducing per capita energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. It provides background on the concept, including its adoption as a policy goal by the Swiss government in 2002. Examples are given of progress made in Switzerland towards this vision through renewable energy projects, energy-efficient buildings, and research conducted by institutions like ETH Zurich. Challenges and objections to achieving a 2000-watt society are also summarized.

1. 1
IT COMES TO THE ENERGY!
The 2000-watt society vision
in Switzerland.
Dr. Marco Morosini, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich
12.3.2014, London, NETGREEN

2. Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic

3. Antarctic Peninsula

4. 4
http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society
X X

5. ”The scenario of a “2000-watt society” serves as a
conception, guiding energy and climate protection policy.
In the long term, this would require a reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) to the sustainable
level of one tonne per capita,
with per-capita energy consumption of 500 watts being
derived from fossil fuels and 1500 watts from renewable
sources.”
Swiss Government
Sustainable Development Strategy 2002 (and 2008 and 2012)
www.deza.admin.ch/ressources/resource_en_23811.pdf
2002: The Swiss government adopts
the 2000-watt normative scenario

6. 6
2002, 2004:
Final
reports
Jochen et al., 2002
Jochen et al., 2004

7. 7
2010
Bretschger L. et al. 2010
“A 2000 watt society is compatible with a further growth of GDP in Switzerland”

8. 8
Josè Goldemberg
UNDP World Energy Assessment
1985

9. 9
1994, Switzerland

10. 10
1998: The ETH-domain starts the research programme:
“2000 watt society – Switzerland”
Institutions of the ETH-domain:
ETH-Rat (1998) 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz.
Strategie Nachhaltigkeit im ETH-Bereich, Wirtschaftsplattform, ETH Zürich

11. 11
2000: The foundation Novatlantis is created
to foster progress towards a 2000-watt society
www.novatlantis.ch/

12. 12

13. 13
2009: New Monterosa Hut: 100% renewable energies at 2883 m asl
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Swiss Alpine Club
www.neuemonterosahuette.ch
www.section-monte-rosa.ch/cabanes_4.htm
- 130 beds
- hot shower for 130
- photovoltaic and thermosolar panels
-emergency backup generator
(agrodiesel)

14. 14
Since 1986: 100% renewable energy at 2126 m asl.
Markus Menn, Postman and Postbus driver in Juf, Avers Valley, Grison, CH
- chalet of 4 apartments
- heat pump (4 ground probes, 80 m)
- thermosolar panels
- hydropower from nearby plant
http://jufferien.ch/

15. 15
Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf
2007

16. 16
Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November
2007, pp. 4-7
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf

17. 17
If alone, efficiency is not the solution.
It is the problem
http://www.novatlantis.ch/

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2005

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2000: Energy use distribution
among countries and within countries
(average + upper decile + lowest decile)
Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911

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60 TW ?12 TW
6000 watt x 10 billion
World use of primary energy*:
Year 2000 to 2050-2100
Unsustainable transition?
2000 watt x 6 billion
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

22. 22
2000 2050
World use of primary energy*:
Sustainable transition?
IC
LIC
IC: Industrialized countries
LIC: Less Industrialized Countries
18 TW12 TW
2000 watt x 6 billion 2000 watt x 9 billion
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

23. 23
Thank you !

24. 24
Additional slides
(upon request)

25. Use of power or of primary energy*
- in the year 2000 (Switzerland)
- and in 2050, in the scenario „2000-watt society“
Unit per capita Year 2000 Year 2050
watt
(continuous flux.
1 W = 1 J /sec)
6000 2000
tons oil equivalent (toe)
x year
4.5 1.5
gigajoule (GJ)
x year
190 60
kilowatt hour (kW.
h)
x year
53 000 18 000
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

26. Definition of the normative scenario
“2000-watt society”
In a „2000-watt society“ all energy services together
require a continuous flux of primary energy of
no more than 2000 watt per capita
(or: TPES* of 60 GJ /year per capita)
Present requirement in Europe: 6000 watt per capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society
* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply

27. 27
Outline
1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”
1. Examples in Switzerland
2. Objections and obstacles
1. Summary and conclusions

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Why 2000 watt per capita?
1) "Biophysical“ argument:
2000 watt pc would be a precautionary limit
to avoid excessive perturbation to biodiversity and to biosphere
(Wolfram Ziegler, 1977; Hans-Peter Dürr 1993)
2) Status quo argument:
2300 watt pc is the average flux of primary energy in the world now
3) Quality of life indicators show poor correlation
with growing energy use beyond 2000 watt pc
(Vaclav Smil 2003)

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-Swiss government, (Sustainable development strategy 2002, 2008,
2012)
-Zurich population: in a town referendum 78% of the voting population of
Zurich decide to write in the town constitution the commitment to a “2000-
watt society”
-Some cantons and towns, in their energy strategies
-All major national scientific institutions: ETH, EPFL, EMPA, WSL, PSI
-Society of engineers and architects (SIA), with guidelines for
“2000-watt society buildings”
-Zurich, Basel, Geneva: Pilot towns for a “2000-watt society”
2000-2010: The vision of a 2000-watt society
spreads in Switzerland and is adopted by:

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http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

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http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society

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http://www.aue.bs.ch/fachbereiche/fachuebergreifendes/nachhaltige-entwicklung/pilotregion.htm

33. Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011
33
The new headquarter (1998) of the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics, Neuchatel
Demand of primary energy: 10 % of a conventional building.

34. 34
EAWAG e EMPA
Federal Institutes for research
on water and on materials
Zurich, 2007
1998 and 2007: Federal buildings with energy demand of only
10% of a conventional building
Federal Office of Statistics,
Neuchatel, 1998

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2010:
- MINERGIE: 19 000 certified buildings (20 million m2
)
-MINERGIE-Plus: 630 buildings
-MINERGIE-Plus-ECO: 80 buildings
www.minergie.ch
1998: MINERGIE, the major Swiss registered label
for low-energy buildings

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MINERGIE certified: Headquarters of 2 top 10 companies, Zurich
Migros Tower (nr 1 retail) Sunrise Towers (nr 2 phone company)

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2008: “Energy saving is out
In its new energy strategy the ETH abandons the 2000-watt society”

38. Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011
38
Since 2008: Two diverging strategies
1) Government, cantons, towns, institutions, business:
“2000-watt society” in 2050.
And 1 t CO2 per capita
2) ETH (since 2008):
New slogan: “1-t-CO2-society” in 2100-2150.
4000-6000 watt per capita in Switzerland and worldwide

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9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society
1. “Reduce damage, not energy!”
“A limit should be put to risks and damages caused by
energy technologies, not to the level of energy use per se.
With C-poor technologies, the average use of primary
energy can grow at least up to 6000 watt pc for 9 billion
humans.”

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2. “Energy limit, nonsense!”
“A world limit of 2000 watt pc could be either:
- too low,
if environmental friendly technologies are adopted.
- too high,
if environmental unfriendly technologies
are still be used and world population soars.”
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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3. “Horizon 2050 too soon!”
“2100 or 2150 more plausible.”
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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4. “More electrification – and energy - necessary!”
“Fossil fuels can be phased out only through
massive electrification (e.g. private transport; heating)
Trade-off: more-electricity-for-less-carbon.”
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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5. “Lifestyles, not negotiable!”
“For a 2/3 reduction of energy use,
more energy efficiency is not enough.
Strong restrictions in lifestyle would be necessary.
Unacceptable!”
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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6. Rebound effect outmatches efficiency progress
Higher efficiency lowers the price of energy services,
thus boosts the overall use of energy.
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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Two strategies for reducing overall energy use
1) Efficiency:
Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies
2) Sufficiency*:
Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles
*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety

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Change priorities !
1) Sufficiency*:
Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles
2) Efficiency:
Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies
*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety

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Ecological economist Herman Daly:
“Efficiency-first does not give frugality-second –
it makes frugality less necessary.
Frugality-first gives us efficiency-second
by making it more necessary.”

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Examples of collective sufficiency:
- building all trains for no more than 200 km/h
- building all cars for no more than 120 km/h
www.edizioniambiente.it/eda/catalogo/libri/609/

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7. Impossible to forecast new inventions.
“Invention is the mother of necessity”
Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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8. Advertising:
Advertising pressure soars
(ca. 1000 billion U$ in 2004)
Desires engineers outperform efficiency engineers.
9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society

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9. Emulative consumption and growing wealth disparities
The “conspicuous consumption “ of the upper classes
stimulates the emulative consumption of the lower classes.
(s. Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929)

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Hervè Kempf (Paris newspaper Le Monde):
Restrictions of the material consumption of the upper classes are necessary
in order to slow down the growth of the demand by the entire population.
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hervé_Kempf
www.reporterre.fr

54. 54
www.robert-h-frank.com/
Prof. Robert Frank, Cornell University, USA:
Income taxes to be substituted by progressive consumption taxes.

55. 55

56. 56http://www.novatlantis.ch/
2000

57. 57
The energy consumption window today (left) and in 2050 (right).
The upper, ecological boundary (between 2 and 4 kW/capita) refers to the global average.
The lower boundary (600 W/capita) refers to the poorest decile of the global society in 2050.
Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911

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Iceland:
16 000 watt per capita average use of primary energy
80 % geothermic

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1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”
1. Examples in Switzerland
2. Objections and obstacles
1. Summary and conclusions

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Summary (1/2)
1. All technological energy transformations
cause environmental costs – not only fossil fuels.
No energy technology can expand infinitely.
Renewables neither.
2. A voluntary boundary around 2000 watt pc stimulates
energy parsimony – including parsimony of fossil fuels.
3. Only a “2000 watt society” in the industrialized countries can:
a) legitimate them to ask for moderation in energy use worldwide
b) offer to developing countries a possible model for sustainable
energy consumption.

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Summary (2/2)
4. Efficiency (“doing more with less”) is ambivalent:
- it can lower energy use in saturable sectors
(es. heating, cooling, production)
- but generally it boosts energy use
in the society as a whole and in non saturable sectors
(e.g. private transport, consumer goods, leisure travel)
5. Sufficiency (“doing less”) is necessary and accessible through:
- voluntary moderation (stimulated by mass communication)
- incentives, disincentives, prescriptions

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Conclusions
1)For the political community:
“Sufficiency first”
should raise to a priority in the political and cultural arena.
2)For the scientific community:
Technologists and economists should be
more aware of the limited – or counterproductive - effect
of efficiency progress, if this is not accompanied
by a “sufficiency first” policy.

63. 63
Symposium for Wolfgang Sachs
Berlin, May 21-22, 2012
„Sufficiency Economy
What is missing on the Rio Agenda…“
Organised by:
-Wuppertal Institute
-Heinrich Böll Foundation
Programme:
http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/Agenda%20Symposium%20für%20Wolfgang%20Sach

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better

66. Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011
66
Uso di energia finale pro capite (kWh * anno) in Svizzera
1980-2009

67. Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011
67
Emissioni di gas a effetto serra in Svizzera
(Mt CO2 equivalenti) 1990-2009