This is an updated version of a presentation I already gave in 2006 on the EU project ECOLIFE final conference in Vienna.

1. Future Visions of the European
Electronics Industry towards 2020
Technological Paradigm Shifts
Joachim Hafkesbrink, Innowise Germany

2. Getting It Wrong: Prophecies From The Past
Lord Kelvin, Mathematician and Physicist 1897: „The radio has no future.“
Why the Record Company Decca turned down the Beatles in 1962: „We
don‘t like your sound, Guitargroups are a thing of the past.“
Bill Gates, 1981: „640k should be enough for anybody.“
The US-Magazine Popular Mechanics, 1949: „The Computer of the future
will maybe still weigh 1.5 tons.“
Kaiser Wilhelm II: „I believe in the horse. The automobile is just a
temporary occurence.“
Karl Benz around 1920: „The car is now completely developed. What
else can still to come?“
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economy on Oct. 17th 1929: „It looks like the
stock markets have reached a permanent high level.“

3. Table of Contents
Paradigm Shift: Definition and Examples
Innovation Theory: trajectories, path-dependancies,
disruptive technologies
Paradigm Shifts and the Law of Acceleration
Systems Innovation and Transition
Societal Paradigms as a Framework for technological
development
Drivers and Barriers of Transition
Technological Paradigm Shifts 2020

4. Paradigm Shift: some definitions
What is a Paradigm?
“a constellation of concepts, values, perceptions, and practices shared by a
community, which forms a particular vision of reality and a collective mood
that is the basis of the way the community organizes itself”
What is a Paradigm Shift?
“a change from one way of thinking
to another with a profound and
irreversible change to a different
model of behavior or perception”

5. Paradigm Shift: some examples
moving scientific theory from the Ptolemaic
system (the earth at the center of the
universe) to the Copernican system (the
sun at the center of the universe)
moving from Newtonian physics to
Relativity and Quantum Physics
Invention of fire, wheel etc.

6. Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory
Joseph A. Schumpeter*:
Talks about „disruptive technologies“ or „radical
innovation“
= new technological innovation, product, or service
that eventually overturns the existing dominant
technology or product in the market
* Famous Austrian Innovation Researcher

7. Moore‘s Law:
Information
Technologies (of all
kinds) double their
power (price,
performance,
capacity, bandwith)
every year.
Source: Ray Kurzweil

8. Paradigm Shift in Innovation Theory
technological revolutions do not occur abruptly
they come only after longer periods of traditionally
bound technology, where technological improvements
follow a more or less fixed path of development

9. Evolution of a Technology
(A technological Trajectory)
Degree of
Maturity
(Performance)
New technology
Incremental
(new trajectory)
Innovation
Path dependency
Radical
Innovation
Birth Growth Maturity Time
Radical
Innovation
Technological trajectory: industry sticks to a given trajectory (technology
path) as long as incremental innovation are favoured to prevent sunk costs
from changing the basic technology

10. Law of Acceleration (Ray Kurzweil)
Paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is
currently doubling (approximately) every decade.
That is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate
of acceleration is itself growing exponentially).
So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be
equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of
200 centuries.
In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 20 years of
progress (again at today's rate of progress) since we have been
speeding up to current rates.
So the twenty-first century will see about a thousand times greater
technological change than its predecessor.

11. Source: Ray Kurzweil

12. Source: Ray Kurzweil

13. Systems Innovation: Transition Phases and Levels

14. Systems Innovation: Multidimensional Shifts
Radical structural System
innovations innovations
Change in market / actor relations
Example: Example:
Re-Use of electronic devices,
components and parts
New Business Models for
Product-Service Systems
Fusion of technologies,
-
products with new
services and new use
-
models
Incremental Radical process
innovations innovations
Example: Example:
Improvement of plastic Non-destructive automatic
recognition technology disassembly
Change in production / technology

15. Systems Innovation: Long Waves of Development

16. Paradigms shifts in the Electronics Industry 1970-2000
A) reactive receptive constructive system
B) End of pipe Process Product System
C) Specialists Managers Sector Society
D) Minimisation Optimisation Acceleration Vision
E) Taylorism Automatisation Time to Market Sustainability
Standardized production Comparative Advantages Competitive Advantages Systemic Competitiveness
A) response phase C) main actors
B) focus of attention D) driving philosophy
E) trajectory
1970 1980 1990 2000 t
„From a linear to a circular valua-added chain based on new paradigms
with service extensions.“

17. Seeds of transition from a production-and-throw-away
Economy to a service oriented knowledge based Industry
Macro-level: new governance Portfolio - WEEE, EuP, RoHS ....
Meso-level: new alliances - joint-cooperative innovation
networks, change in cultural and belief regimes
Micro-level: actors from different sectors are driving innovation
(communication and content provider, suppliers, OEMs, waste
management and recycling companies, science/consulting)

18. Barriers of transition
Macro-level: some regulation is more a barrier than a driver
Meso-level: loss of ownership may hinder diffusion of product-
service shift
Micro-level: technical barriers (end of Moore‘s Law 1 in 2015,
barriers in multi-disciplinary cooperation – barriers in knowledge
transfer)

19. Technological paradigm shifts towards the year 2020
„New trajectories are things we are researching today and which will be
reality tomorrow“
Sources:
Research and development programs (national, EU-level, US...)
Industry Roadmaps
European Technology Platforms
Foresight Studies, Delphis, Scenarios
...

20. What happens in a technological paradigm shift?
Way of thinking: vision, basic philosophy, view, mindset
Technological kernels: models, basic technology, miniaturization and
acceleration...
Crossover Trends: convergence, cross-fertilization, embeddedness,
computation...
Dialogue: connectivity, networks, communication...
Capabilities: learning, mimicking, self-sustaining...
Environment: way of using it, work organization,
energy issues...

21. “The farther backward you can look,
the farther forward you can see.”
(Winston Churchill)

22. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 1
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
Technology quot;out-therequot;
(technology alien to Technology in support to Technology as interface to Technology becoming a second
Vision
nature - technology to mankind nature nature
control the world)
self-organizing, self-repairing,
basic
maximisation optimisation sufficiency, adaptation, learning fault-tolerance, redundancy,
philosophy
fuzziness
evolutionary, bottum-up, open
evolutionary, self-organized,
view technocratic, top-down, centralized control distributed and mobile
evolve-able systems
architecture
self-understanding, self-
analysis, planning, control
mindset adaptation to user's environment awareness, self-learning
behaviour to be thought in statistical terms
(quot;knowbotsquot;)
adaptive algorithms to operate
fixed-parameter models, variable-parameter models,
fixed-parameter in large, open and non-
structural algorithmic for distributed structural algorithmic
focus of models, top-down deterministic environments
large systems to manage to build distributed, concurrent
software algorithmic, unportable, (adaptive embedded systems),
dependencies between systems, portability, object
development tied to one kind of software that can adapt to
different parts of orientation, adaptability to
and models hardware or particular different circumstances with
programms, limited different environments with
operating system limited, or even without,
portability limited effort
intervention by a developer
basic CMOS and additional Post CMOS era: Photonics,
technology vacuum tube and throughput by processing systems based on
Integrated Circuits/Chips
processing discrete transistors parallelisation/distribution biological neural networks linked
systems techniques to quantum computing systems

23. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 2
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
quantum promise, “information
nano-scale devices reaching a carriers” based on electrons,
miniaturizatio
macro meso, micro scale below 10 nanometres (2D- photons, spins, ions, molecular
n
nanosheets) dynamics, neurons, etc. (qubits);
3D Nanoelectronics
Beyond Moore; technological
law of More of Moore, End of Moore's
Moore's Law singularity (PC will achive
acceleration Law for CMOS
human brain capacity)
megabyte, gigabyte,
processing kilobyte, 0.25 MIPS in terabyte and peak performance
1.00 MIPS in the year peta device computing
speed the year 1967 of TeraFLOPS for standard chip;
2003
bio-society linking the realms of
analog-digital- information, material and life,
analogue society digital society
bio shift combination of digital and
analgous computation
completely integrated bio-
quot;Bio-ICT Convergencequot;, electronic systems, combination
managing the quot;wet frontierquot; of living and artificial systems,
cross-
mono-disciplinarity inter-disciplinarity (interface between organic and technological artefacts
fertilization
non-organic; neuro-electronic increasingly involving and
interfaces) exploiting the properties of living
material
data large data and managing diversity in data and knowledge by adaptation,
small quantities of data
complexity knowledge repositories convergence of digital data, quanta with bio-nano-technologies

24. Source: Ray Kurzweil
The Matrix
Remember?

26. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 3
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
pervasive adaptation ('change'
of ICT-systems as fundamental
property so that they can
develop, grow, self-assemble,
bio-chemically based
replicate, evolve, adapt, repair
computation, ubiquitous
and self-organise over long
computation (anywhere,
periods of time, life-like
number-based, quot;turing computationquot;, anytime), morphological
computation computation, emotional
quot;one level, one unit, one purposequot; computation with distributed
computation, biological &
intelligence, M3P Systems
biohybrid modules for new forms
(quot;Many level, Many Unit, Many
of computation and enhanced
Purposequot;)
interaction with the environment,
programmable & intelligent
materials (computational
materials)
role of managing input-outputs from multiple networks (WiFi, Bluetooth,
operating optimal scheduling and memory utilization UMTS, etc.), managing mobility (who are the neighbours? Where
systems are they?), managing reconfigurability (energy saving), managing
pervasive communication and
bi-directional connectivity: flexible multi-
beyond fixed end-to-end
connectivity, cable- directional decentralized
unidirectional connectivity paradigm: multi-
based, fixed-wireless connectivity, 4G wireless (Open
connectivity connectivity, cable- directional connectivity,
convergence, 1G/2G Wireless Architecture);
based 2.5G/3G data-ventric wireless
voice centric wireless seamless unification of different
communication (UMTS)
(GPRS) kinds of networks (wireless,
optical)
communicati
one-to-one one-to-many many-to-many, ubiquitous instant messaging online
on

27. Ubiquituous computing:
Hey Baby – what‘s
about having a
walk?
You‘re boring!

28. ERCIM News No.47, October 2001
http://www.limsi.fr/

29. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 4
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
heterogenous interconnected
networks, massively distributed global networks on planetary
interoperable pervasive scale, self-aware IT-networks,
computing, GRID-technology, total interoperability of mobile,
networking homogenous proprietary 'middleware' as mediator fixed, personal and corporate
no networks
attributes fixed network structures between structure and content, heterogeneous resources and
seamless broadband applications with ubiquitous
communication networks access, networked societies of
spanning from the personal area artefacts
to the regional and global area.
user more and more
user quot;away from user's attentionquot;, ubiquitous, subconsciously,
high user attention detached from
attention embedded
application
intelligent artificial agents with
complete agent' approach
free association, creativity and
(agents that are embodied and
empathy that can perceive,
self-sufficient, situated, e.g. able
understand, and interact with
to acquire information through
agents single-agent approach multi-agent approach their environment, but also
their own sensors and act
evolve and learn in order to
accordingly, and autonomous,
achieve human-like
i.e. functioning independently
performance activities requiring
without external control)
context-specific knowledge

30. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 5
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
intelligent agent technology,
configurable by metadata,
representing the end-user, able
ambient intelligence (built-in) to recall behaviours in context,
with contextual awareness, to link to system-centric
RFID tags/sensors as part of all- environment for contextual,
intelligence stupid maturing
pervasive environment with historical and domain knowledge
intelligent interfaces, quot;towards and utilise this in improving the
natural cognitionquot; interaction, quot;New cognitive
paradigmquot;, quot;Embodied
Intelligencequot;, quot;Swarm
Intelligencequot;
Web 4.0 and higher (trustful:
managing and operating critical
Web 2.0 (blogs bringing infrastructure; bridge between
Web1.0 (genesis of dramatic changes in news and physical and virtual world via
websites-1995) publishing; Wikipedia, OpenBC, instrumented and managed
internet not existing Web1.1. (Mass-capable Ajax etc.) 2005; sensorized physical
1998) Web 1.2. Web 3.0 (melting pot; deeply environment; supporting
(More Service 2000) integrated in physical pervasive computing, seamless
environments) 2010 access to networked
instruments, supercomputers,
storage etc.)
information context-sensitive semantic
byte search string search semantic search
selection search
security of nanotechnologies
eternal systems (quot;software that and biocomputing (Quantum
vulnerable
lasts 200 yearsquot;), extremely long-Cryptography, security of
interdependent ICT

31. http://www.ics.forth.gr/ami/index.html

32. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 6
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
ICT-devices learning from
self-repairing, healing ICT-
sophisticated perception
devices with reconfigurable
systems mimicking humans and
features of one device for one structures (self-designing, self-
multifunctional devices natural behaviour, ICT-devices
devices purpose decision-making and self-
involving properties of living
maintaining software IT
materials including cognition,
systems)
perception and action
Situated and cooperating smart
devices (artefacts) with sensing,
acting and computational
audio cassettes,
capabilities 'hidden' in
compact disk, handheld
environment and
calculator, computer bio-electrical robots, nanobots,
mobile phones with communicating with each other,
mouse, floppy disk, smart drugs, Artificial intelligent
multiple functions like ICT everywhere – packaging,
examples microprocessor, entities („artilects“) able to
camera, music player, clothes, domestic devices,
ethernet, laser printer, interpret and respond to human
PDA etc leisure devices, business
cellular phone, emotions
systems, environmental
walkman, cray
systems, health systems, Smart
computer
Dust (large networks of
sensors); quot;content everywhere
and at anytimequot;

33. Technological based Paradigm Shifts in the Electronics Industry Part 7
1960-1980 1981-2000 2001-2020 2021- ...
personalized and context-aware
services adopted to the user's
environment ('Situated
universal personalized services,
Services'), new solutions that
product- product-service systems, networks of cooperating
products; Data Poor combine technology and
service shift Data Rich services, seamless adaptive
markets with geography and
service systems
users, dynamic digital services
to users anywhere anytime;
Information Rich - Service Rich
work- virtual corporation, physical- delegation to AIE (Artificial
centralized dezentralized
organization virtual confluence Intelligence Entitites)
managing reconfigurability to reduce energy consumption,
increasing energy
shift from tera device computing
large energy consumption as a result
with high energy consumption to reducing computation to a
energy consumption as a result of economic growth and
a larger number of parallel but minimal physical process, e.g.
issues of macro systems in increasing number of
slower cores with less using natural dynamics of
place high-performance chips
complexity; implementation of molecules (qubits)
(Giga device computing)
fuel cells for mobile applications

36. Thank you for your attention
Joachim Hafkesbrink
Innowise GmbH, Germany
RIAS – Rhein-Ruhr Institute for Applied Systems Innovation e.V.
Jh@innowise.eu
Tel. +49-171-12 0 11 77