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  1. 1. The emergence of an innovative disjuncture – anticipation of value, fluid business models Development paper ISBE 2010 Ted Fuller Lorraine Warren Paul Walland
  2. 2. Context  Disruptive Innovation  Creative industries  MUPPITS – in-depth case study of MUPPITS (Multiple User Post-Production IT Services), a high technology R&D project designed to address challenges faced by the UK film and broadcasting post-production industry. – MUPPITS is based on new technology, but overall is a systemic approach to work design that brings together key players in the UK post-production value chain: HIGH IMPACT, TRANSFORMATIONAL, DISRUPTIVE – Qualitative methods to track emergence of new systems through project [over years], developmental use of quantitative methods [simulation and optimisation] to deal with poorly formed problems in nascent industry spaces
  3. 3. Purpose  Disruptive industry change -> how might this emerge? How might we create/capture emergent value [or increase likelihood of capturing emergent value]  Engender new business models – HOW? ROAD MAP FOR INDUCTIVE THINKING NOT CLEAR  Know when and how to intervene -> POLICY AND PRACTICE
  4. 4.  Individual (Level A) Intention, agency, personality, cognitive process  Interaction (Level B) Discourse patterns, symbolic interaction, collaboration, negotiation  Ephemeral Emergents (Level C) Topic, context, interactional frame, participation structure; relative role and status  Stable Emergents (Level D) Group sub-cultures, group slang and catchphrases, conversational routines, shared social practices, collective memory)  Social Structure (Level E) Written texts (procedures, laws, regulations); material systems and infrastructures (architecture, urban design, communication and transport networks) The Emergence Paradigm (Sawyer 2005, p211), showing the ‘circle of emergence’ (p220), i.e. that area which is subject to social emergence
  5. 5. Examining  Nature and pathways of inter-activity between agents, values  How possible trajectories were identified and tested out, either as thought experiments, shared mental models, or sometimes as rough working prototypes….  How ‘ephemeral emergents’ are narrowed down to the most promising variant: at this point the transition from ephemeral to stable occurs.  this is the point at which discussions shift from value creation to value capture. (Warren, Fuller et al, 2009)
  6. 6. Post-hoc, real-time, futurology
  7. 7. Anticipation?  Technology arose from another sector, “Service Based Workflow Management”, from Aerospace and Automotive design fields  Relatively stable and well understood, but within the media industry it had not been applied to the emerging challenges of digital file-based working [growing trend]  the arrival of file-based working, the increasing content demands of HD, 4k and 3D, increasing demands on rendering complexity, increased concern by customers about security of content because of ease of sharing in the digital world, increased capability of digital networking technology, dedicated networks, massive storage requirements for digital content and infrastructure limitations in Soho. All of these contributory elements can be shown as converging towards the need for a solution,  Financial environment, TSB, connectivity in Soho [propagation, amplification]
  8. 8. Ongoing  Development of various business models – virtual markets  Poorly formed problem space – definition of entities, variables, messy data, multivariate  Simulation, optimisation  Alpha-beta, Pinewood