Developing Insights About the Future

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Topics covered:
The Goal is Wisdom
Process
Ways of Looking at the Future
What is a Market?
Four Causes of Reality
The Impact of Temperament
Guidelines

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
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Developing Insights About the Future

  1. 1. Developing Insight About the Future Paul Schumann The Innovation Road Map
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>The Goal is Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Process </li></ul><ul><li>Ways of Looking at the Future </li></ul><ul><li>What is a Market? </li></ul><ul><li>Four Causes of Reality </li></ul><ul><li>The Impact of Temperament </li></ul><ul><li>Guidelines </li></ul>
  3. 3. From Noise to Wisdom Creativity Diversity Methodology Conversation Facts History Dynamics/Structures Environment Wisdom Knowledge Data/Insight Noise
  4. 4. Process Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
  5. 5. Ways of Looking at the Future Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures?
  6. 6. A Market Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
  7. 7. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul>
  8. 8. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Trend analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Expert opinion techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Surveys </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Groups </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Temperaments & Views of the Future Source: Keirsey (www.keirsey.com) Guardians Fatalistic Stoic Pessimistic Rationals Solipsistic Pragmatic Skeptical Idealists Mystical Meaning Credulous Artisans Cynical Hedonistic Optimistic Past Present Future
  13. 13. Guidelines <ul><li>Build the complete reality </li></ul><ul><li>Provide actionable results </li></ul><ul><li>Employ a mix of normative and projective techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Balance rational and intuitive approaches </li></ul><ul><li>Integrate the perspectives of personality types </li></ul><ul><li>Be cognizant of boundaries and holes </li></ul><ul><li>Create a hologram not a mosaic </li></ul>

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