A Crisis within the Crises in Pakistan
The IDPs of Swat and Buner Districts



            IFPRI Panel Discussion

       ...
Area and population of Swat and Buner
                             Swat   Buner
Area (sq km)                 5337   1865
P...
May 2009
1.   Armed Taliban back on          8.    Taliban ‘shaving beards’ to
     Mingora Swat roads as the            f...
May 2009 (contd.)
15.   “IDPs leaving NWFP won’t       20.   UN pleads for more cash for
      get aid” Rahman Malik Min  ...
June 2009
23.   UN awaits Govt nods for           32.   About 15,000 IDPs have come
      relief work i B
        li f    ...
Only 1.96 million of 4.61 million registered
       IDPs Eligible on July 11, 2009
               g        J y    ,




  ...
Only a Small Proportion of IDPs
were i C
     in Camps on July 11 2009
                 J l 11,

                     In C...
p
Crops                      pp
                    What happened
 Wheat              Not harvested

 Vegetables       ...
   Marble/China Clay      Closed down – no power!
   Gemstones              No market – high risk
   Forest and Timbe...
   Forced Repatriation
                  y            y
    Increased Physical Insecurity
   Strict Government Approval...
A 2008 Asian Development Bank
   Study of 32 Asian Countries
ranked Pakistan 2nd last in terms
 of a composite S i l Prote...
45                                   41 41
                           40                                           38
    ...
“Currently 77 million people, almost half the
population, is food insecure in Pakistan - daily
calorie intake below th min...
   Punjab produces on average 16
    to 17 million mt against
    consumption requirements of
    12.5 million mt
   NWF...
 a recent nine pillared Poverty Reduction Strategy
 a Social Protection Strategy approved a couple of
y
years ago
      ...
   Serious information asymmetries, moral hazard,
    adverse selection, insufficient property rights, no
    accountabil...
These once proud people have lost their
dignity
di it and th i ability t protect it – L t
          d their bilit to  t t ...
Thank You So Much
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts
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A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts

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Sohail Jehangir Malik, Chairman, Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd
12th August, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington D.C.

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A crisis within crisis in Pakistan: The IDP's of Swat and Buner Districts

  1. 1. A Crisis within the Crises in Pakistan The IDPs of Swat and Buner Districts IFPRI Panel Discussion Sohail Jehangir Malik Chairman Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd August 12, 2009
  2. 2. Area and population of Swat and Buner Swat Buner Area (sq km) 5337 1865 Population ‘000’ (2004-05) 1577 656
  3. 3. May 2009 1. Armed Taliban back on 8. Taliban ‘shaving beards’ to Mingora Swat roads as the flee Swat TNSM rejects Darul Qaza 9. IDPs swell to over 1.4m: UN. 2. Taliban slap ‘curfew’, blow p , 10. Thousands flee as curfew up schools relaxed 3. Taliban in control of 90% of 11. Pakistan facing one of Swat’. world’s worst displacement 4. PM orders all-out war, tells , crises: UN. army to eliminate Taliban l lb 12. Troops fight Taliban on once and for all. Swat streets 5. Operation Rah-e-Rast is 13. UN issues $543m appeal for launched IDPs . 6. Thousands flee Swat h d fl 14. MQM wants ban on IDPs’ 7. NWFP govt. seeks global entry into Sindh. emergency aid for IDPs
  4. 4. May 2009 (contd.) 15. “IDPs leaving NWFP won’t 20. UN pleads for more cash for get aid” Rahman Malik Min Swat displaced. for Interior. 21. IDPs selling relief goods in 16. IDPs complain of not Peshawar . h receiving int’l and US aid. 22. IDPs protest closure of food 17. 6,000 pregnant women in distribution points. camps. 18. IDPs exceed 2.9million - NA committee told. 19. ICRC suspends aid activities d id ti iti in Swat .
  5. 5. June 2009 23. UN awaits Govt nods for 32. About 15,000 IDPs have come relief work i B li f k in Buner. to karachi says Sindh CM karachi, CM. 24. Trapped residents emerge, 33. IDPs being registered on war seek food in Swat. footing. 25. NWFP to engage NADRA, 34. Jeay Sindh protest against UNHCR for the registration of influx of IDP IDPs. 35. US warns against diseases 26. UN chief warns of severe outbreak in IDPs. crisis due to funding shortage. 36. Govt urged to devise 27. 27 IDPs number distorted by rehabilitation plan for p duplication in registeration displaced f di l d farmers.. 28. Holbroke assures full help in 37. IDPs registration temporarily reconstruction phase. stopped. 29. US offers to increase IDPs aid 38. Only 25% of estimated aid for by $200m b $ IDPs received: UN 30. Food shortage worsening in 39. IDPs being registered on war restive Malakand areas. footing. 31. 2.5 million IDPs expected to 40. Displaced persons face remain i camps i 2009 i in in 2009. discrimination at IDP camps
  6. 6. Only 1.96 million of 4.61 million registered IDPs Eligible on July 11, 2009 g J y , Total w ith CNIC not available , 0.17 Total w ith multiple registerations, 1.46 registerations 1 46 Total Eligible, 1.97 Total w ith CNIC Invalid, 0.29 p Total w ith Multiple Total w ith duplicate w ithin identities/aliens, 0.01 families , 0.45 Total from outside affected areas , 0.27
  7. 7. Only a Small Proportion of IDPs were i C in Camps on July 11 2009 J l 11, In Camps 9% Off-Camp Off Camp 91%
  8. 8. p Crops pp What happened  Wheat  Not harvested  Vegetables  Not harvested  Tobacco  Not harvested  Maize  Cannot Plant  Ri Rice  C Cannot Pl Plant  Sugarcane  Cannot Plant Horticulture  Fruits/orchards  Not Harvested Livestock  Lost, Killed,
  9. 9.  Marble/China Clay  Closed down – no power!  Gemstones  No market – high risk  Forest and Timber  No permissions – high risk Products  Household Crafts  No resources – no market
  10. 10.  Forced Repatriation  y y Increased Physical Insecurity  Strict Government Approvals required to function – outsiders NOT permitted easily - Restrictions on local activities  Poor or No Infrastructure  Electricity for eight to ten hours only y g y  No landline telephone and only UFONE cellular in some places  Virtually non functioning health, sanitation and y g , education system  Ill functioning or closed markets  Inadequate and ill designed relief mechanisms - 95,462 IDPs families provided with Rs. 25,000 ATM Relief Cards
  11. 11. A 2008 Asian Development Bank Study of 32 Asian Countries ranked Pakistan 2nd last in terms of a composite S i l Protection f it Social P t ti Index
  12. 12. 45 41 41 40 38 37 36 Poverty headcoun (%) 35 32 33 30 30 29 30 28 nt 30 26 25 22 22 20 y 15 10 5 0 Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Pakistan 1998-99 2000-01 2004-05 Source: World Bank
  13. 13. “Currently 77 million people, almost half the population, is food insecure in Pakistan - daily calorie intake below th minimum recommended l i i t k b l the i i d d level” -Report of the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Food Security (2008)
  14. 14.  Punjab produces on average 16 to 17 million mt against consumption requirements of 12.5 million mt  NWFP largest wheat deficit and most vulnerable  required hi h t allocation - i d highest ll ti almost 2.3 million mt in 2007/08  Changes in domestic wheat marketing p g policies immediately y affect NWFP supply situation  Porous borders with Afghanistan - large share of the allocated wheat does not reach intended Provincial consumers
  15. 15.  a recent nine pillared Poverty Reduction Strategy  a Social Protection Strategy approved a couple of y years ago g But  No capacity or intent to implement and  No effective pressure or conditionality for it to do so
  16. 16.  Serious information asymmetries, moral hazard, adverse selection, insufficient property rights, no accountability or access to justice etc. all leading to market and government failure  Very limited opportunity, security or empowerment  Poor and manipulated d P d i l d data, poorer analyses and no l d voice or ownership of the people  Virtually no Monitoring and Evaluation  Serious disconnects between what is stated and what is actually intended, between existing and envisaged capacity and hence between what is planned and what is eventually implemented  No processes for informed independent policy p p p y debate and discussion
  17. 17. These once proud people have lost their dignity di it and th i ability t protect it – L t d their bilit to t t Let us not forsake them.
  18. 18. Thank You So Much

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