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Activity 5.4
Drought Risk Management Scheme:
a decision support system
Tamara Tokarczyk

2. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20152 www.gwpcee.org
• Activity leader – Tamara Tokarczyk (PL)
• Duration - June 2013 – March 2015
• Partners
Basic information
POLAND
• Institute of Meteorology
and Water Management
National Research
Institute, Wroclaw Branch
(IMGW-PIB)
Tamara Tokarczyk
Wiwiana Szalińska
• Institute of Technology and
Life Sciences (ITP)
Leszek Łabędzki
LITHUANIA
• Vilnus University,
Department of Hydrology
and Climatology (UV)
Gintautas Stankūnavičius,
Edvinas Stonevičius
ROMANIA
• National Meteorological
Administaration (NMA)
Elena Mateescu
• National Research and
Development Institute for
Soil-Agrochemistry and
Environment (ICPA),
Bucuresti
Daniel Aleksandru
Gheorghe Stancalie

3. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20153 www.gwpcee.org
Basic information
Developing an integrated framework that constitute a systematic approach for building
drought management systems for different sectoral context.
Provide a planning process that can facilitate preparation of decision support systems for drought
risk management regarding to:
• monitoring network,
• drought indicators,
• drought hazard assessment,
• drought early warning,
• drought prediction,
• impact assessment
• risk assessment
Developed framework defines main principles for drought management that can be applied
for various drought aspects.

4. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20154 www.gwpcee.org
Implementation process
Framework for decision
support tools provides
guidance and
recommendations for
developing and
implementing decision
system based on
indicators achievable in
given time-bounds to
support drought risk
management.
Institutional framework - the institutional coordination set-up and key capacities required to
develop the drought risk management systems.
Framework for drought
risk assessment -
outlines the necessary
procedures for assessing
drought risks. This entails
the analysis of
climate/hazard trends
and other underlying
vulnerability factors.
Framework for drought prevention measures presents the interventions that depends on
the risk profile within a given context. Provides an overview of the types of drought risk
management options which can be adopted for ensuring immediate responses, enhancing
short-term preparedness and promoting long-term resilience.
Framework for drought risk management
The challenge is integration
of different approaches and
concepts arising from
different national, regional
and sectoral context.
The recommendations on
how to assess drought risk,
how to mitigate drought
impact and create the
catalogue of mitigation tools
are frameworks for drought
risk management.
Framework was based on
institutional,
methodological, public and
operational structures
serving to compose
integrated body of methods.

5. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20155 www.gwpcee.org
Final output(s)
1.1. Identification of the national measures for
drought suspectibility (drought hazard)
assessment
1.2. Identification of the national measures for
drought vulnerability assessment
2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard
mapping with the use of measures for drought
susceptibility assessment.
2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to
drought assessment based on available GIS
information including population map, type of
economic activity map and protected area to
showing the potential adverse consequences.
3.1 Drought Risk Management Scheme for Odra
River
3.2 Recommendations for operational support
system in drought risk management

6. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20156 www.gwpcee.org
Final output(s)
Measures for
the assessment
of hazard and
vulnerability to
drought
Methods for the
drought hazard
and risk
management
Framework for
Drought Risk
Management
Scheme
Inventory of the national
drought contexts -
informations in terms of
drought hazard
characteristic and
assessment, drought
impacts and sectors
vulnerable to drought
Concept of drought hazard
and vulnerability mapping
as a tool for drought risk
management for selected
regional context.
OUTPUT RESULTSPECIFICATION
1. Selection of drought hazard indices for the drought detection, monitoring,
2. Development of drought hazard assessment methods taking into account
drought frequency and severity analysis,
3. identification of drought impacts within the given regional and sectoral
context and vulnerability estimation methods,
4. integration of the resultant drought hazard assessment with the drought
vulnerability analysis in order to categorize the areas subject to drought risk.
1. Climatic conditions in the context of drought (LT, PL, RO)
2. Drought monitoring and early warning systems (LT, PL, RO)
3. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility to drought
4. End-users and dissemination products
5. Identification of national sectors vulnerable to drought (LT, PL, RO)
6. Inventory of methodology to characterize drought impact and vulnerability
assessment (LT, PL, RO)
7. Stakeholders on national, regional and local levels and their needs for
information on drought risk (LT, PL, RO)
1. Objectives for drought risk management
2. Current status of drought risk management in Odra River
3. (study area, organizational framework for water management in Poland,
management of water resources to mitigate drought impacts, drought risk
management plans, drought monitoring and prediction
4. Recommendation on development of drought risk management in the Odra
River
Planning process (scheme)
that can facilitate the
preparation of decision
support systems for
drought risk management

7. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20157 www.gwpcee.org
Added value
Drought hazard and vulnerability assessment based upon the indices applicable to the participating
countries in the form of maps which present temporal and spatial variation allow identification of the
drought-prone regions.
Combining this information with regional context and indicated sectors of economy and elements of
the system in the individual countries constitute an easy tool for drought assessment. Ability to
interpret the results should be a basis for a construction of a drought information exchange platform.
This is the first step to building an Integrated Drought Early Warning System.
Elaborated recommendation for the decision support system in drought risk management are to
serve as a common denominator for different regional and sectoral specifications. Introducing a
common framework in the form of step-by-step process lead to compatibility and complementarity
among different systems. Developed Framework defines main principles for drought management
that can be applied for various drought aspects.
Providing integrated guidelines for framing drought risk management systems within the CEE
countries is a step forward in attempt to establish common drought management policy.
Project realization allowed to recognized drought vulnerability and management strategies that were
developed and applied in the participating countries.

8. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20158 www.gwpcee.org
Lessons learned and transferability
Final outputs of activity 5.4 provide useful guidance for the countries involved in the project in
integrating drought risk management concepts and practices into development of planning and
programme frameworks.
Cooperation among project participants especially highlighted the importance of consolidating
national and local experiences and developing materials to inform and guide future cooperation
processes in a systematic and integrated manner.
The obtained results shall be continuously reviewed with partners and stakeholders through
various knowledge-sharing mechanisms, and revised to respond to changing circumstances.

9. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20159 www.gwpcee.org
Drought risk management scheme should be develop in following aspects:
• application of remote sensing data to drought monitoring as a input for
drought assessing;
• development of geospatial decision support tools to address spatial
distribution of drought hazard and vulnerability;
• identification of vulnerable regions with the application of remote sensing
data and geoinformatics techniques;
• applying geospatial technologies for hazard and vulnerability mapping to
develop long term strategies for drought management;
• adaptation of new tools for drought impact assessing with exploitation of
historical data base (meteorological, hydrological, economical, etc.)
Follow up

10. IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201510 www.gwpcee.org
THANK YOU!