TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE: Every nation has dozens of “windows of opportunity” after a new disaster occurs to use the updated books of knowledge for innovative capacity building. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

1. GOAL
A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH
KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE
LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS
SPONSORS
CHAMPIONS
DONORS
TOPICAL
INTERNATIONAL
WORKSHOP
19-22 AUGUST 2001
DISASTERS
GLOBAL
BLUEPRINTS
FOR CHANGE
BLUEPRINTS
REGIONAL
BLUEPRINTS.
WORLD
CONFERENCES ON
DISASTER
REDUCTION
2005 AND 2015
TOWARD DISASTER
RESILIENT
COMMUNITIES

2. GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
The Paradigm for 2014
That Makes Our Tomorrows Better
STEP 3

3. TOWARDS GLOBAL
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• Step 1: Integrating Today’s Global
Knowledge Into Global Books of
Knowledge
• Step 2: From Today’s Books of
Knowledge to Innovative Capacity
Building
• Step 3: From Today’s Paradigm to
Tomorrow’s

4. THE GOAL
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY

5. REALITY
LACK OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
INSUFFICIENT
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
INCREASED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY

6. •MONITORING
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATIONR
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
YOUR
BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE
NATION
5 PILLARS OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EM RESPONSE
•RECOVERY

7. BENEFITS OF DISASTER
RESILIENCE
• REDUCTION OF
VULNERABILITY
• REDUCTION OF
UNACCEPTABLE
RISK
• LARGE BENEFIT/COST
• POLITICAL
SUCCESS (No
Regrets)
• ENHANCED
DISASTER
RESILIENCE

8. STEP 3: TO MOVE
From Today’s Paradigm to
Tomorrow’s
The difference between “Today” and
“Tomorrow” is characterized by one set of
“CHAMPIONS” leaving center stage and
another set coming on.

9. REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM
STEP 1
Integrating Today’s Global
Knowledge Into Global Books of
Knowledge

10. FACT: THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK
OF DISASTER KNOWLEDGE
• ALL 200
NATIONS HAVE
A HISTORICAL
RECORD OF
THEIR OWN
DISASTERS

11. FACT : THE PROBLEM IS AN
IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM
• KNOWING WHAT
TO DO TECHNICALLY AND
HOW TO DO IT
POLITICALLY
ARE DIFFERENT
PROCESSES

12. FACT : THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF
CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION
• TECHNICAL AND
POLITICAL
CAPACITY ARE
NEEDED FOR
IMPLEMENTATION OF
EACH OF THE FIVE
PILLARS OF
DISASTER
RESILIENCE

13. REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM
STEP 2
From Today’s Books of Knowledge
to Innovative Capacity Building For
Disaster Resilience

15. EVERY NATION HAS DOZENS OF
“WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY”
AFTER A NEW DISASTER OCCURS
TO USE THE UPDATED BOOKS OF
KNOWLEDGE FOR INNOVATIVE
CAPACITY BUILDING

16. THE CAPACITY BUILDING
PROCESS
PERIOD OF
INTEGRATION
WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY
PERIOD OF
IMPLEMENTATION
PERSONALIZE
ACT
HEAR
UNDERSTAND
IDENTIFY

17. FACT
DISASTER RESILENCE HAPPENS
AS CAPACITY IS BUILT BY THE
INNOVATIVE INTEGRATION OF
“POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL
SOLUTIONS” OF A COMMON
AGENDA

18. CHARACTERISTICS OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE
• STAPLE FACTORS
INTEGRATED INTO
DECISIONMAKING
• STAPLE FACTORS
BALANCED
• BENEFIT/COST
RATIO IS LARGE

19. TOWARDS INCREASED CAPACITY FOR
GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE
GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA
(CA) OF TECHNICAL
AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS
TECHNICAL
SOLUTIONS
CA

20. TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER
RESILIENCE
FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED
ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS
POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS
TECHNICAL
SOLUTIONS
CA
STAPLE
FACTORS
S
O
P
T

21. EACH NATION’S UNIQUE
“STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH
• TIME
• PLACE
• CIRCUMSTANCES

22. SOCIAL
SYSTEMS
SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE
OF WHAT THEY NEED?)
TECHNICAL (IS THE STATE OF
KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE
BEING APPLIED?)
ADMINISTRATIVE (WHO IS
RESPONSIBLE AND
ACCOUNTABLE?)
COMMUNITY
POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC
POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS
OF THE THREAT?)
“STAPLE”
FACTORS
LEGAL (ARE EXISTING LEGAL
MANDATES ENFORCED?)
ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND
CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?)
ALL AFFECT COMMUNITY
DISASTER RESILIENCE

23. STEP 3: TO MOVE
From Today’s Paradigm to
Tomorrow’s
The difference between “Today” and
“Tomorrow” is ONE GENERATION, which
is characterized by one set of
CHAMPIONS leaving the stage and
another coming on.

24. BRIEF HISTORY OF
PARADIGM SHIFTS
• PRIOR TO 1980:
• HUGH CASUALTIES; ECONOMIC
LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS
• SINGLE HAZARD EMPHASIS WITH
DEPENDENCY ON CAPACITY FOR
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION
PROGRAM

25. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• PRIOR TO 1980:
• EMPHASIS ON POST-DISASTER
STUDIES TO LEARN FROM
EARTHQUAKES ADVANCED BY USA
AND UNESCO
• LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION
PROGRAM ENACTED

26. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (continued)
• PRIOR TO 1980:
• NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE
PROGRAM IN USA
• INCREASED INDEMNIFICATION OF
WIND AND EARTHQUAKE LOSSES
WITH CASUALTY INSURANCE
• INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR SEARCH
AND RESCUE OPERATIONS

27. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1980-1989: LEARNING TO THINK IN TERMS
OF THE DISASTER PLANNING CYCLE
(Preparedness, Mitigation, Emergency
Response, Recovery)
• INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR LOSS
ESTIMATION (e.g., insurers, HAZUS-EQ)

28. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1980-1989:
• ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM SINGLE
EVENTS REACH BILLIONS
• CASUALTY INSURERS PAY OUT A BILLION
DOLLARS IN ONE DISASTER
• EMPHASIS ON PREPAREDNESS AND
MITIGATION (Building codes and lifeline
standards)

29. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1980-1989:
• IDENTIFICATION OF “CHAMPIONS” FOR
REGIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION
PROMOTED BY USA, UNESCO AND UNDP
• UNANIMOUS APPROVAL OF UN’s
RESOLUTION FOR INT’L DECADE FOR
NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION (i.e., the
IDNDR, the decade oif the 1990’s)

30. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1990-1999:
• 155 NATIONS PARTICIPATE IN UN’s INT’L
DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER
REDUCTION PROGRAMME
• SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND
PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN
TERMS OF ALL NATURAL HAZARDS
INSTEAD OF SINGLE HAZARDS

31. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1990-1999:
• 155 INDIVIDUAL NATIONS CREATE
NATIONAL COMMITTEES (OR ENTITIES)
FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
• EXPERTS RECOMMEND INCREASED
FOCUS ON EARLY WARNING AND PREAND POST-DISASTER VULNERABILITY
REDUCTION, AND EDUCATION

32. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1990-1999:
• INCREASED NUMBER OF INT’L
CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION
• PLANNING FOR FIRST WORLD
CONFERENMCE ON NATURAL DISASTER
REDUCTION IN KOBE JAPAN
• INCREASED FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE
PARTNERSHIPS” AS IDNDR CLOSES

33. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 1990-1999:
• CONCEPT OF “SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT” ADVANCED
• FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE
PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER
REDUCTION” INCREASED AS IDNDR
CLOSES

34. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 2000-2014:
• UN’s IDNDR PROGRAMME TRANSFORMED
INTO INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR
DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME
• SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND
PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN
TERMS OF STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

35. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 2000-2014:
• WORLD CONFERENCE CONVENED IN
KOBE, JAPAN; THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PRODUCED
• CONCEPT OF GLOBAL DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION ADVANCED

36. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 2000-2014:
• FORUM ON GLOBAL DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION ESTABLISHED IN DAVOS,
SWITZERLAND
• INT’L CONFERENCES CONVENED IN
DAVOS IN 2006, 2008, 2010, AND 2012
• PLANNING BEGINS FOR 2ND WORLD
CONFERENCE IN JAPAN IN 2015

37. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM
SHIFTS (Continued)
• 2000-2014:
• CASUALTIES REACH HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS AND ECONOMIC LOSSES
REACH HUNDRED OF BILLIONS IN SINGLE
EVENTS
• THE FIVE PILLARS OF GLOBAL DISASTER
RESILIENCE EMERGES AS AN URGENT
GLOBAL PARADIGM

38. JANUARY 1, 2014
MILLIONS OF
COMMUNITIES ARE STILL
NOT RESILIENT TO FLOOD
DISASTERS

39. CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN
INUNDATION AND SCOUR
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
EFFECTS OF WATER ON
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
HEALTH PROBLEMS,
INJURIES, AND DEATH
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

40. JANUARY 1, 2014
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES
ARE NOT RESILIENT TO
HURRICANE OR TYPHOON
DISASTERS

41. CAUSES
OF RISK
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES
WINDOWS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
CASE HISTORIES
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION
IRREGULARITIES IN
ELEVATION AND PLAN
POOR WORKMANSHIP
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS

42. JANUARY 1, 2013
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES
ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO
EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

43. CAUSES
OF RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )
EARTHQUAKES
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
CASE HISTORIES
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM
IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS

44. JANUARY 1, 2014
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES
ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO
TSUNAMI DISASTERS

45. CAUSES
OF RISK
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
CASE HISTORIES
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI

46. JANUARY 1, 2013
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES
ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO
DROUGHT DISASTERS

47. CAUSES
OF RISK
PROLONGED LACK OF
PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
CASE HISTORIES
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF
GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND
BY DESERTIFICATION

48. JANUARY 1, 2014
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE
STILL NOT RESILIENT TO
VOLCANIC ERUPTION
DISASTERS

49. CAUSES
OF RISK
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS
(TEPHRA)
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
CASE HISTORIES
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH
(AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE

50. JANUARY 1, 2014
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES
ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO
LANDSLIDE DISASTERS

51. CAUSES
OF RISK
BUILDING ON UNSTABLE
SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE
TO SPREADS
CASE HISTORIES
SOIL AND ROCK
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
OR GROUND SHAKING
BARE, OVERSTEEPENED
SLOPES

52. JANUARY 1, 2014
MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES
ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO
WILDFIRE DISASTERS

53. CAUSES
OF RISK
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
CASE HISTORIES
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
DEFORESTATION
DENUDED SLOPES
HOT, DRY WEATHER

54. WHAT WILL THE NEXT
PARADIGM SHIFT BE?
THE NEXT BRIGHT IDEA WILL
EMERGE AS GLOBAL
PROFESSIONALS CONTINUE WORK
DURING 2014 AND BEYOND

55. STRATEGY: BUILD ON PAST
PROGRAMS
IDNDR’S GOALS AND
OBJECTIVES
ISDR’S COMMON AGENDA
IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR
DISASTER REDUCTION
PRE- AND POST-DISASTER
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY
WARNING, EM. RESPONSE
AND RECOVERY
EXPERIENCES WITH
PREVENTION AND
PROTECTION

56. TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER
RESILIENCE
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
AND
SOUTH AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
EUROPE AND
MEDITERRANEAN
CREATION AND
IMPLEMENTATION
OF REGIONAL
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
PLANS
MEDITERRANEAN
ASIA
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA

57. GOAL
A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH
KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE
LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS
SPONSORS
CHAMPIONS
DONORS
TOPICAL
INTERNATIONAL
WORKSHOP
19-22 AUGUST 2001
DISASTERS
GLOBAL
BLUEPRINTS
FOR CHANGE
BLUEPRINTS
REGIONAL
BLUEPRINTS.
WORLD
CONFERENCES ON
DISASTER
REDUCTION
2005 AND 2015
TOWARD DISASTER
RESILIENT
COMMUNITIES