Part 3 Three Steps Towards Global Disaster Resilience

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TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE: Every nation has dozens of “windows of opportunity” after a new disaster occurs to use the updated books of knowledge for innovative capacity building. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction



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Part 3 Three Steps Towards Global Disaster Resilience

  1. 1. GOAL A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS SPONSORS CHAMPIONS DONORS TOPICAL INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP 19-22 AUGUST 2001 DISASTERS GLOBAL BLUEPRINTS FOR CHANGE BLUEPRINTS REGIONAL BLUEPRINTS. WORLD CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION 2005 AND 2015 TOWARD DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
  2. 2. GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE The Paradigm for 2014 That Makes Our Tomorrows Better STEP 3
  3. 3. TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE • Step 1: Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge • Step 2: From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building • Step 3: From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s
  4. 4. THE GOAL DISASTER RESILIENCE DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
  5. 5. REALITY LACK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
  6. 6. •MONITORING •HAZARD MAPS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATIONR DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK YOUR BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE NATION 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •EARLY WARNING •EM RESPONSE •RECOVERY
  7. 7. BENEFITS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE • REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY • REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK • LARGE BENEFIT/COST • POLITICAL SUCCESS (No Regrets) • ENHANCED DISASTER RESILIENCE
  8. 8. STEP 3: TO MOVE From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is characterized by one set of “CHAMPIONS” leaving center stage and another set coming on.
  9. 9. REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 1 Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge
  10. 10. FACT: THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF DISASTER KNOWLEDGE • ALL 200 NATIONS HAVE A HISTORICAL RECORD OF THEIR OWN DISASTERS
  11. 11. FACT : THE PROBLEM IS AN IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM • KNOWING WHAT TO DO TECHNICALLY AND HOW TO DO IT POLITICALLY ARE DIFFERENT PROCESSES
  12. 12. FACT : THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION • TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY ARE NEEDED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF EACH OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
  13. 13. REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 2 From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building For Disaster Resilience
  14. 14. EVERY NATION HAS DOZENS OF “WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY” AFTER A NEW DISASTER OCCURS TO USE THE UPDATED BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE FOR INNOVATIVE CAPACITY BUILDING
  15. 15. THE CAPACITY BUILDING PROCESS PERIOD OF INTEGRATION WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION PERSONALIZE ACT HEAR UNDERSTAND IDENTIFY
  16. 16. FACT DISASTER RESILENCE HAPPENS AS CAPACITY IS BUILT BY THE INNOVATIVE INTEGRATION OF “POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS” OF A COMMON AGENDA
  17. 17. CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE • STAPLE FACTORS INTEGRATED INTO DECISIONMAKING • STAPLE FACTORS BALANCED • BENEFIT/COST RATIO IS LARGE
  18. 18. TOWARDS INCREASED CAPACITY FOR GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS CA
  19. 19. TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS CA STAPLE FACTORS S O P T
  20. 20. EACH NATION’S UNIQUE “STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH • TIME • PLACE • CIRCUMSTANCES
  21. 21. SOCIAL SYSTEMS SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE OF WHAT THEY NEED?) TECHNICAL (IS THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE BEING APPLIED?) ADMINISTRATIVE (WHO IS RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE?) COMMUNITY POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS OF THE THREAT?) “STAPLE” FACTORS LEGAL (ARE EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES ENFORCED?) ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?) ALL AFFECT COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
  22. 22. STEP 3: TO MOVE From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is ONE GENERATION, which is characterized by one set of CHAMPIONS leaving the stage and another coming on.
  23. 23. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS • PRIOR TO 1980: • HUGH CASUALTIES; ECONOMIC LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS • SINGLE HAZARD EMPHASIS WITH DEPENDENCY ON CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE • LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM
  24. 24. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • PRIOR TO 1980: • EMPHASIS ON POST-DISASTER STUDIES TO LEARN FROM EARTHQUAKES ADVANCED BY USA AND UNESCO • LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM ENACTED
  25. 25. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (continued) • PRIOR TO 1980: • NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM IN USA • INCREASED INDEMNIFICATION OF WIND AND EARTHQUAKE LOSSES WITH CASUALTY INSURANCE • INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS
  26. 26. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1980-1989: LEARNING TO THINK IN TERMS OF THE DISASTER PLANNING CYCLE (Preparedness, Mitigation, Emergency Response, Recovery) • INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR LOSS ESTIMATION (e.g., insurers, HAZUS-EQ)
  27. 27. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1980-1989: • ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM SINGLE EVENTS REACH BILLIONS • CASUALTY INSURERS PAY OUT A BILLION DOLLARS IN ONE DISASTER • EMPHASIS ON PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION (Building codes and lifeline standards)
  28. 28. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1980-1989: • IDENTIFICATION OF “CHAMPIONS” FOR REGIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROMOTED BY USA, UNESCO AND UNDP • UNANIMOUS APPROVAL OF UN’s RESOLUTION FOR INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION (i.e., the IDNDR, the decade oif the 1990’s)
  29. 29. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • 155 NATIONS PARTICIPATE IN UN’s INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME • SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF ALL NATURAL HAZARDS INSTEAD OF SINGLE HAZARDS
  30. 30. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • 155 INDIVIDUAL NATIONS CREATE NATIONAL COMMITTEES (OR ENTITIES) FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION • EXPERTS RECOMMEND INCREASED FOCUS ON EARLY WARNING AND PREAND POST-DISASTER VULNERABILITY REDUCTION, AND EDUCATION
  31. 31. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • INCREASED NUMBER OF INT’L CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION • PLANNING FOR FIRST WORLD CONFERENMCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION IN KOBE JAPAN • INCREASED FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS” AS IDNDR CLOSES
  32. 32. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 1990-1999: • CONCEPT OF “SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT” ADVANCED • FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION” INCREASED AS IDNDR CLOSES
  33. 33. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • UN’s IDNDR PROGRAMME TRANSFORMED INTO INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME • SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION
  34. 34. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • WORLD CONFERENCE CONVENED IN KOBE, JAPAN; THE KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PRODUCED • CONCEPT OF GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ADVANCED
  35. 35. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • FORUM ON GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ESTABLISHED IN DAVOS, SWITZERLAND • INT’L CONFERENCES CONVENED IN DAVOS IN 2006, 2008, 2010, AND 2012 • PLANNING BEGINS FOR 2ND WORLD CONFERENCE IN JAPAN IN 2015
  36. 36. BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) • 2000-2014: • CASUALTIES REACH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS AND ECONOMIC LOSSES REACH HUNDRED OF BILLIONS IN SINGLE EVENTS • THE FIVE PILLARS OF GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGES AS AN URGENT GLOBAL PARADIGM
  37. 37. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO FLOOD DISASTERS
  38. 38. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN INUNDATION AND SCOUR INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS FLOODS CASE HISTORIES EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, INJURIES, AND DEATH LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
  39. 39. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE NOT RESILIENT TO HURRICANE OR TYPHOON DISASTERS
  40. 40. CAUSES OF RISK WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS SEVERE WINDSTORMS CASE HISTORIES STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
  41. 41. JANUARY 1, 2013 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS
  42. 42. CAUSES OF RISK INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) EARTHQUAKES IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS CASE HISTORIES FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
  43. 43. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO TSUNAMI DISASTERS
  44. 44. CAUSES OF RISK HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP TSUNAMIS CASE HISTORIES INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI
  45. 45. JANUARY 1, 2013 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO DROUGHT DISASTERS
  46. 46. CAUSES OF RISK PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DROUGHTS CASE HISTORIES DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION
  47. 47. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTERS
  48. 48. CAUSES OF RISK PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE
  49. 49. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO LANDSLIDE DISASTERS
  50. 50. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS CASE HISTORIES SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES
  51. 51. JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO WILDFIRE DISASTERS
  52. 52. CAUSES OF RISK LIGHTNING STRIKES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBANWILDLANDS INTERFACE WILDFIRES CASE HISTORIES WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DEFORESTATION DENUDED SLOPES HOT, DRY WEATHER
  53. 53. WHAT WILL THE NEXT PARADIGM SHIFT BE? THE NEXT BRIGHT IDEA WILL EMERGE AS GLOBAL PROFESSIONALS CONTINUE WORK DURING 2014 AND BEYOND
  54. 54. STRATEGY: BUILD ON PAST PROGRAMS IDNDR’S GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ISDR’S COMMON AGENDA IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PRE- AND POST-DISASTER TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE AND RECOVERY EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION AND PROTECTION
  55. 55. TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA CARIBBEAN EUROPE AND MEDITERRANEAN CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REGIONAL DISASTER RESILIENCE PLANS MEDITERRANEAN ASIA SUB-SAHARA AFRICA
  56. 56. GOAL A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS SPONSORS CHAMPIONS DONORS TOPICAL INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP 19-22 AUGUST 2001 DISASTERS GLOBAL BLUEPRINTS FOR CHANGE BLUEPRINTS REGIONAL BLUEPRINTS. WORLD CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION 2005 AND 2015 TOWARD DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

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