Laurence Graff's presentation at the Climate Action Conference in Brussels, 25-27 October 2010
Topic: The situation in the international climate negotiations and the EU’s
expectations for the Cancún conference
Julius Randle's Injury Status: Surgery Not Off the Table
Laurence Graff - Outlook for cancun
1. The prospects for international climate change
policies –
An EU perspective
22 October 2010
Laurence Graff
Head of Unit « international affairs and inter-institutional matters »
European Commission, DG Climate Action
2. Outline – Tough questions
The ultimate goal
Going for a 2°Celsius, 4°Celsius or X°Celsius world?
Copenhagen outcomes
Are we on course to a 2°Celsius world?
Cancun and beyond
UN or not? Legally binding or ‘pledge and review’? 2010 or later?
EU vision for Cancun
Actual prospects for Cancun?
Conclusions
5. What does a 4°Celsius world mean?
Temperatures in Europe by 2100
Source: Stott et al. 2004
TemperatureinEurope
6. What does a
4°Celsius
world mean?
Rainfall in
Europe by
2100
Source: PESETA study 2007.
Unabated climate change: A2
scenario. Changes in 2071-2100
compared to 1961-90
8. Staying below 2 degrees:
Global carbon budget until 2050
Global Peak
by 2020
Global -50%
by 2050 rel. 1990
Developed Countries
to cut by 80-95%
by 2050 rel. 1990
10. On course to a 2 degrees world?
UN climate negotiations
1994 UN Framework Convention (UNFCCC) enters into force:
stabilisation of greenhouse gas emissions of industrialised
countries at 1990 levels by 2000
1997 Kyoto Protocol agrees for industrialised countries to reduce
GHG emissions by 5% compared to base year (mostly 1990)
for the period 2008-2012 (1st
commitment period); covers ~
30% of global emisssions
2001 Marrakech Accords lay down detailed implementation rules;
but US walked away from Kyoto Protocol
2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force
2005 Montreal COP agrees to start negotiations of 2nd
commitment
period under the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Bali COP adds Bali Action Plan for long-term cooperative
action (LCA) until 2012 and beyond
11. On course to a 2 degrees world?
Copenhagen outcomes
1. UN negotiations will continue along the same two tracks
2. The « Copenhagen Accord »
Negotiated by 29 Heads of State
Contains positive points:
• Recognition of 2°C objective
• Parties to submit pledges
• High-level guidance on how
to measure, report and verify
(MRV) DC actions
• Commitment by developed
countries to 2010-2012
‘fast-start’ funding (US$30 bn)
& long-term funding
(US$100 bn by 2020)
12. On course to a 2 degrees world?
Fast-start funding
Copenhagen Accord:
developed countries
commit to provide up
to US$ 30 billion over
period 2010-2012 as
‘fast-start’ funding
EU’s commitment is
€7.2bn 2010-2012, or
€2.4bn yearly
EU is delivering on its fast-start funding commitment
EU gave initial reporting in June 2010 (factsheet)
More comprehensive report for Cancun
13. On course to a 2 degrees world?
Copenhagen outcomes
1. UN negotiations will continue along the same two tracks
2. The « Copenhagen Accord »
Negotiated by 29 Heads of State
Contains positive points:
• Recognition of 2°C objective
• Parties to submit pledges
• High-level guidance on how
to measure, report and verify
(MRV) DC actions
• Commitment by developed
countries to 2010-2012
‘fast-start’ funding (US$30 bn)
& long-term funding
(US$100 bn by 2020)
• Review in 2015 (reference to 1.5°C)
138 Parties support the Accord so far
representing more than 80% of global emissions
However: the Accord falls short of the EU's ambition for Copenhagen
• Not the robust, legally binding agreement we were expecting
• Only “taken note of” by the COP
14. On course to a 2 degrees
world? No!
2ºC range2ºC range 2ºC range2ºC range2ºC range 2ºC range
17. Cancun and beyond:
Big bang or ‘step by step’?
Ultimate goal remains an ambitious,
comprehensive, legally-binding global framework
Best guarantee for legal certainty and predictability, reciprocity between
countries, and strong political signal of willingness to act
The EU is ready to adopt a legally binding
agreement in Cancun, but are others?
Domestic climate policies in the US
BASIC positions
ALBA countries: Cochabamba Conference
Step-by-step approach: Cancun should lay a
solid foundation for action and a milestone
towards the future international regime
???
18. EU vision for Cancun:
Balanced set of decisions
Candidates
Tangible co-operative action/partnerships: Adaptation,
Capacity building, Reducing emissions from deforestation
and forest degradation, Technology transfer
Setting the rules: Monitoring, Reporting and Verification;
basis for new market-based mechanisms; aviation and
maritime transport; accounting rules for land use, land use
change and forestry; financial governance (Green Fund)
More difficult to find final agreement on quantified
mitigation commitments and funding commitments
19. EU vision for Cancun:
International carbon market
EU vision – build a global carbon market
To drive investments and achieve global mitigation objectives at least cost
To generate important financial flows to developing countries
Lesson from Kyoto: UN incapable of creating the necessary scarcity
Concrete steps
Link compatible domestic cap-and-trade systems to develop an OECD-wide
market by 2015
New sectoral carbon market mechanisms for ‘advanced’ DCs as a step
towards cap-and-trade systems
Reform and better focus the CDM
EU should use its ETS legislation as an incentive:
• work together with interested developed and developing countries to develop
sectoral mechanisms, whose credits could then be recognized for use in the
EU ETS;
• dependent on progress, develop and propose strict measures for improving the
quality requirements for credits from project-based mechanisms.
20. EU vision for Cancun:
Clear conditions for
2nd
commitment period
The EU’s overarching objective is environmental integrity (2°C)
EU supports Kyoto
We are on track to comply with our 2008-2012 commitments
We have adopted ambitious targets for 2020 (20 / 30%)
EU wants to build on and incorporate all the essential elements of Kyoto, but…
But (1) Kyoto alone cannot deliver the 2°C objective
Kyoto only covers 30% of emissions today
2°C only possible if US and major DC emitters (including Brazil, China, India,
South Korea, Mexico, South Africa, who rank among the world's 15 biggest
emitters) will do their share.
But (2) Kyoto has serious weaknesses that must be addressed
Banking of AAU surplus (Russia, Ukraine)
LULUCF accounting rules (major forest developed countries)
Need to promote and enable sectoral action – new market mechanisms
21. EU vision for Cancun:
Address AAU surplus & Land Use,
Land Use Change, Forestry rules
AAUs
AAUs
LULUCF
LULUCF
‘Low’
pledge
‘High’
pledge
22. Actual prospects for Cancun?
Political level must engage
September
Informal meeting hosted by Mexico and Switzerland on finance (Geneva, 1-3 Sept.)
MEF, 20-21 Sept
Millennium Development Goals Summit, including Global Sustainability Panel (New York,
20-22 September)
UNGA High Level Segment, and meeting of foreign ministers organised in the margins by
Mexico (New York, 25 September)
October
Tianjin climate change talks (4-9 October)
Informal consultations on MRV organised by Mexico (Mexico City, 18-19 October)
(Paris-Oslo) REDD+ Ministerial (Nagoya, 26 October)
November
Mexico-AOSIS meeting, Grenada, 1-2 November
Pre-COP ministerial, 3-4 November, Mexico
December
COP 16 (Cancun, 29 November-10 December)
23. Actual prospects for Cancun? 6 weeks left after Tianjin
Insufficient progress
Objective of engaging in “massive extraction” process not met
Useful discussions but very limited progress in streamlining
Shaping the Cancun outcome
“Balanced set of decisions” clearly the basis of work
But « contours » of the package and content remain unclear
Progress on adaptation, technology and finance, REDD+
Contentious issues: Fast Start Finance, reluctance to engage on mitigation
(anchoring pledges) and transparency (MRV); market mechanisms
Further progress will depend on signals and reassurance on the final objective :
Legally binding outcome/agreement under the Convention? Continuation of the
Kyoto Protocol? One legal regime or two separate legal regimes?
Political signals before Cancun will be decisive
Informal Pre-COP (3-4 November)
Can UNFCCC afford a failure? Can fight against climate change afford a failure?
24. Conclusions
Hard choices to be made, no matter whether
it is deliberate or by default. Less mitigation
means more adaptation.
Huge impacts on long-term investment, but
outcomes of international negotiations are
very uncertain.
EU needs to continue to act now, lead by
example and engage with the willing,
especially the carbon market needs further
development
25. More information on EU climate policy:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/home_en.htm
Thank you