Laurence Graff - Outlook for cancun


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Laurence Graff's presentation at the Climate Action Conference in Brussels, 25-27 October 2010

Topic: The situation in the international climate negotiations and the EU’s
expectations for the Cancún conference

Published in: News & Politics
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Laurence Graff - Outlook for cancun

  1. 1. The prospects for international climate change policies – An EU perspective 22 October 2010 Laurence Graff Head of Unit « international affairs and inter-institutional matters » European Commission, DG Climate Action
  2. 2. Outline – Tough questions  The ultimate goal  Going for a 2°Celsius, 4°Celsius or X°Celsius world?  Copenhagen outcomes  Are we on course to a 2°Celsius world?  Cancun and beyond  UN or not? Legally binding or ‘pledge and review’? 2010 or later?  EU vision for Cancun  Actual prospects for Cancun?  Conclusions
  3. 3. The ultimate goal
  4. 4. 2°Celsius, 4°Celsius or X°Celsius? EU’sEU’s 22°C°C Source: IPCC 2007
  5. 5. What does a 4°Celsius world mean? Temperatures in Europe by 2100 Source: Stott et al. 2004 TemperatureinEurope
  6. 6. What does a 4°Celsius world mean? Rainfall in Europe by 2100 Source: PESETA study 2007. Unabated climate change: A2 scenario. Changes in 2071-2100 compared to 1961-90
  7. 7. The potential impacts EU’s 2°C
  8. 8. Staying below 2 degrees: Global carbon budget until 2050 Global Peak by 2020 Global -50% by 2050 rel. 1990 Developed Countries to cut by 80-95% by 2050 rel. 1990
  9. 9. Copenhagen outcomes
  10. 10. On course to a 2 degrees world? UN climate negotiations 1994 UN Framework Convention (UNFCCC) enters into force: stabilisation of greenhouse gas emissions of industrialised countries at 1990 levels by 2000 1997 Kyoto Protocol agrees for industrialised countries to reduce GHG emissions by 5% compared to base year (mostly 1990) for the period 2008-2012 (1st commitment period); covers ~ 30% of global emisssions 2001 Marrakech Accords lay down detailed implementation rules; but US walked away from Kyoto Protocol 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2005 Montreal COP agrees to start negotiations of 2nd commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2007 Bali COP adds Bali Action Plan for long-term cooperative action (LCA) until 2012 and beyond
  11. 11. On course to a 2 degrees world? Copenhagen outcomes 1. UN negotiations will continue along the same two tracks 2. The « Copenhagen Accord »  Negotiated by 29 Heads of State  Contains positive points: • Recognition of 2°C objective • Parties to submit pledges • High-level guidance on how to measure, report and verify (MRV) DC actions • Commitment by developed countries to 2010-2012 ‘fast-start’ funding (US$30 bn) & long-term funding (US$100 bn by 2020)
  12. 12. On course to a 2 degrees world? Fast-start funding  Copenhagen Accord: developed countries commit to provide up to US$ 30 billion over period 2010-2012 as ‘fast-start’ funding  EU’s commitment is €7.2bn 2010-2012, or €2.4bn yearly  EU is delivering on its fast-start funding commitment  EU gave initial reporting in June 2010 (factsheet)  More comprehensive report for Cancun
  13. 13. On course to a 2 degrees world? Copenhagen outcomes 1. UN negotiations will continue along the same two tracks 2. The « Copenhagen Accord »  Negotiated by 29 Heads of State  Contains positive points: • Recognition of 2°C objective • Parties to submit pledges • High-level guidance on how to measure, report and verify (MRV) DC actions • Commitment by developed countries to 2010-2012 ‘fast-start’ funding (US$30 bn) & long-term funding (US$100 bn by 2020) • Review in 2015 (reference to 1.5°C)  138 Parties support the Accord so far representing more than 80% of global emissions  However: the Accord falls short of the EU's ambition for Copenhagen • Not the robust, legally binding agreement we were expecting • Only “taken note of” by the COP
  14. 14. On course to a 2 degrees world? No! 2ºC range2ºC range 2ºC range2ºC range2ºC range 2ºC range
  15. 15. Cancun and beyond
  16. 16. Cancun and beyond: UN or smaller format?
  17. 17. Cancun and beyond: Big bang or ‘step by step’? Ultimate goal remains an ambitious, comprehensive, legally-binding global framework  Best guarantee for legal certainty and predictability, reciprocity between countries, and strong political signal of willingness to act The EU is ready to adopt a legally binding agreement in Cancun, but are others?  Domestic climate policies in the US  BASIC positions  ALBA countries: Cochabamba Conference Step-by-step approach: Cancun should lay a solid foundation for action and a milestone towards the future international regime ???
  18. 18. EU vision for Cancun: Balanced set of decisions Candidates Tangible co-operative action/partnerships: Adaptation, Capacity building, Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, Technology transfer Setting the rules: Monitoring, Reporting and Verification; basis for new market-based mechanisms; aviation and maritime transport; accounting rules for land use, land use change and forestry; financial governance (Green Fund) More difficult to find final agreement on quantified mitigation commitments and funding commitments
  19. 19. EU vision for Cancun: International carbon market  EU vision – build a global carbon market  To drive investments and achieve global mitigation objectives at least cost  To generate important financial flows to developing countries  Lesson from Kyoto: UN incapable of creating the necessary scarcity  Concrete steps  Link compatible domestic cap-and-trade systems to develop an OECD-wide market by 2015  New sectoral carbon market mechanisms for ‘advanced’ DCs as a step towards cap-and-trade systems  Reform and better focus the CDM  EU should use its ETS legislation as an incentive: • work together with interested developed and developing countries to develop sectoral mechanisms, whose credits could then be recognized for use in the EU ETS; • dependent on progress, develop and propose strict measures for improving the quality requirements for credits from project-based mechanisms.
  20. 20. EU vision for Cancun: Clear conditions for 2nd commitment period  The EU’s overarching objective is environmental integrity (2°C)  EU supports Kyoto  We are on track to comply with our 2008-2012 commitments  We have adopted ambitious targets for 2020 (20 / 30%)  EU wants to build on and incorporate all the essential elements of Kyoto, but…  But (1) Kyoto alone cannot deliver the 2°C objective  Kyoto only covers 30% of emissions today  2°C only possible if US and major DC emitters (including Brazil, China, India, South Korea, Mexico, South Africa, who rank among the world's 15 biggest emitters) will do their share.  But (2) Kyoto has serious weaknesses that must be addressed  Banking of AAU surplus (Russia, Ukraine)  LULUCF accounting rules (major forest developed countries)  Need to promote and enable sectoral action – new market mechanisms
  21. 21. EU vision for Cancun: Address AAU surplus & Land Use, Land Use Change, Forestry rules AAUs AAUs LULUCF LULUCF ‘Low’ pledge ‘High’ pledge
  22. 22. Actual prospects for Cancun? Political level must engage  September  Informal meeting hosted by Mexico and Switzerland on finance (Geneva, 1-3 Sept.)  MEF, 20-21 Sept  Millennium Development Goals Summit, including Global Sustainability Panel (New York, 20-22 September)  UNGA High Level Segment, and meeting of foreign ministers organised in the margins by Mexico (New York, 25 September)  October  Tianjin climate change talks (4-9 October)  Informal consultations on MRV organised by Mexico (Mexico City, 18-19 October)  (Paris-Oslo) REDD+ Ministerial (Nagoya, 26 October)  November  Mexico-AOSIS meeting, Grenada, 1-2 November  Pre-COP ministerial, 3-4 November, Mexico  December  COP 16 (Cancun, 29 November-10 December)
  23. 23. Actual prospects for Cancun? 6 weeks left after Tianjin  Insufficient progress  Objective of engaging in “massive extraction” process not met  Useful discussions but very limited progress in streamlining  Shaping the Cancun outcome  “Balanced set of decisions” clearly the basis of work  But « contours » of the package and content remain unclear  Progress on adaptation, technology and finance, REDD+  Contentious issues: Fast Start Finance, reluctance to engage on mitigation (anchoring pledges) and transparency (MRV); market mechanisms  Further progress will depend on signals and reassurance on the final objective : Legally binding outcome/agreement under the Convention? Continuation of the Kyoto Protocol? One legal regime or two separate legal regimes?  Political signals before Cancun will be decisive  Informal Pre-COP (3-4 November)  Can UNFCCC afford a failure? Can fight against climate change afford a failure?
  24. 24. Conclusions Hard choices to be made, no matter whether it is deliberate or by default. Less mitigation means more adaptation. Huge impacts on long-term investment, but outcomes of international negotiations are very uncertain. EU needs to continue to act now, lead by example and engage with the willing, especially the carbon market needs further development
  25. 25. More information on EU climate policy: Thank you