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Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands

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Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands

  1. 1. Some observations and comments on EU’s roadmap for low carbon growth in 2050<br />Remko Ybema<br />
  2. 2. Observation: messages of hope<br />A road to a low carbon economy is within reach<br />A consistent picture of the portfolio of low-carbon technologies<br />Substantial upfront cost, but these will be largely paid back<br />Investments will spur economic growth and create jobs<br />Substantial co-benefits<br />Tested under different technical conditions<br />2<br />23-3-2011<br />
  3. 3. It shows what is needed….<br />A major increase in capital investments (270 bill. euro)<br />The EU ETS will be critical to drive a wide range of technologies<br />Smart financing schemes<br />Public private financing mechanisms<br />Additional RD&D investments (50 bill euro in 10 years)<br />3<br />23-3-2011<br />
  4. 4. But…..<br />Nowadays economy seems the only priority<br />Conflicting stakes: some will lose…<br />Inertia: not only physical inertia, also in policy processes, coordination, institutions, mindsets, behaviour….<br />Price of CO2 is low<br />Behavioural issues matter<br />Often difficult to attract capital<br />…and how to divide upfront cost?<br />4<br />23-3-2011<br />
  5. 5. One of the reasons to beoptimistic: investments in renewables<br />5<br />In 2010: 243 billion dollar<br />[REN21, 2010]<br />23-3-2011<br />
  6. 6. But ….. howitcompareswithrevenues of 10 largestcompanies ….<br />6<br />23-3-2011<br />[CNN money, 2011]<br />
  7. 7. Determinants of behaviour not covered<br />Needs satisfaction is leading, not energy considerations<br />Risk aversion prevents many to change <br />Only a small correlation between awareness and easy/symbolic green behaviour<br />Denial<br />Blame others<br />Blame the circumstances<br />Change opinion<br />
  8. 8. Conclusions<br />EU roadmap: messages of hope<br />It shows what is needed, but partially<br />Several elements are missing, including them makes the challenge larger<br />

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