a 51 slides review of the status of technology, trends and underlying patterns with emphasis on mobile tech & adoption. Prepared for WebCongress US edition. Presented at James L. Knight Convention Center in Miami, November 2013

1. WebCongress
US edition, Miami
ed fernandez @efernandez

2. Who am I
to singularity
3 generations journey
ed Jr:
ed:
ed Gf:
Hyperconnecting people&things
smartphones
Mobile computing platforms
electricity
Energy, utilities Infrastructure

3. Why Does Superman Wear His
Underwear Outside His Pants?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/quora/why-does-superman-wear-re_b_2132374.html
A) Express & Signify masculine strenght
B) Aesthetics, emphasize human figure definition
C) Printing techniques for comics last century

4. Any fool can know
The point is to understand
and, beyond understanding, predict
Einstein
from events & data (knowing) forming patterns (understanding) to predictions

5. Patterns
& references
State of the art in Tech:


KPCB internet trends. Mary Meeker & Liang Wu.
Asymco. Horace Dediu
Why this is happening:

Everet Rogers. Diffussion of innovations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Rogers
& why are we here?
Why is it important to people?

Richard Dawkins. Selfish gene

6. Internet engine for convenience
the mighty
“The internet makes human desires more easily
attainable, it offers convenience”
“Convenience on the internet is basically achieved
by two things: speed & cognitive ease”
http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/ev-williams-xoxo/
Ev Williams.
Twitter co-founder

12. every
traditional business
has a
digital bullet
with
its name engraved

14. Internet: where are we?

15. Internet: where are we?
2,67B
34%
Internet
penetration
Internet
users*
1,1B
Internet
adds 20082013
7,1B
World
Population
200M
Internet
adds this
year
China
India
Indonesia
Russia
Philippines
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
Growth driven by emerging markets
*End 2013 estimated on YoY growth rate of 8%. Source: UN/ITU, internetworldstats.com 2012

17. Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

18. Apps & Devices everywhere
Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

19. Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

20. Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser

21. Mobile Trends:
a brave new world

22. Internet becoming
Mobile First

23. Post
Matt Murphy + Mary Meeker
http://kpcb.com/insights/top-10-mobile-internet-trends
[ Post PC era ]

24. New computing cycles

26. Technology evolution Laws
Computing capacity
Moore’s Law
Computing power doubles every 18-24 months
Price cuts in half
Bandwidth capacity
Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Law
Doubles every 2 years - wired
Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law)
Digital storage capacity
Doubles every 2 years.
Kryder’s Law

28. Wireless
Smaller
Powerful
Cheaper

32. Smartphone adoption
not even half way
World is
here

33. … Platforms
Platforms

34. fragmentation

35. Complexity of mobile phone market
mobile phone market share doesn’t tell the full story
Source: VisionMobile

36. Operating systems
Over the next two years, innovation in user
experiences comes from new software platforms.
legacy frameworks, current operating systems, struggle to deliver
disruptive innovation.
Potential innovators include BlackBerry OS 10,
Firefox OS and Tizen.
Established players will selectively implement elements, but fail to
gain the slick integration of the originals.
CCS insights. Predictions for 2013 and beyond

37. the TIC
TAC TOE
mobile strategy

38. Hardware
Google
Motorola
2000
Nokia
Microsoft
Apple
RIM
OS
Cloud

39. Hardware
Google
Motorola
2007
Nokia
Microsoft
Apple
RIM
OS
Cloud

40. Hardware
Google
2012
The year of the fruit
Motorola
Nokia
Microsoft
Apple
BlackBerry
OS
Cloud

41. People
motivations are changing?
1943 - Maslow
2013 - ?!?

43. Online & Offline blurring
boundaries

46. People:
new generation of social entrepreneurs
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
New paths in Maslow’s pyramid
‘truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away
New definitions of ‘success’: money may not be in
Access to luxury more important than owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy
Self-realization and self-actualization online
(Win)^3: You help me, I help you, we help others
Klout score in your resume
Managing man-machine symbiosis, key competencies.
Global network, global thinking, global objectives. A collective intelligence
arising (Singularity)

47. Entrepreneurship

48. People: new generations
Reduced sense of security since 2001 terrorists attacks
Destabilized economy since Global Financial crisis 2008
High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations
Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or live out of the system
Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere
Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg, Larry, Sergey
All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself (kickstarter)
reduced loss of aversion (nothing to lose) fostering self driven -entrepreneurship (most benefitial path in given conditions)

49. Matt Murphy + Mary Meeker
http://kpcb.com/insights/top-10-mobile-internet-trends

50. Arguably the worst recession,
Undoubtely the biggest
technology opportunity ever
…

51. What should we do?
1. Engage in POLITICS ?!?
2. EDUCATE (help next gen understand)
3. DO vs WATCH (create, innovate, act)
• ed fernandez @efernandez
• efernandez@blackberry.com