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TWO SUCCESSIVE POWER BLACK-
 OUTS IN INDIA IMPACT 0NE-HALF
 OF INDIA’S 1.2 BILLION PEOPLE

  JULY 30-31 and following, 2012


   Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
   Disaster Reduction, University of
         North Carolina, USA
LOCATION MAP
BLACKOUTS ON TWO
SUCCESSIVE DAYS CREATE
    CHAOS IN INDIA
 OVER 600 MILLION PEOPLE AND ALL
  COMMUNITY POWER-DEPENDENT
       SYSTEMS AFFECTED
DIMENSIONS OF THE
       BLACKOUTS

• Power grids in 19 of India’s
  28 States stretching from
  Assam, near China, to the
  Himalayas and the
  northwestern deserts of
  Rajasthan, shut down
What is dramatic about these
 blackouts is that they have
impacted the entire country.
BLACKOUT NO SURPRISE
 FOR INDIA’S BUSINESSES

• India's well known, unreliable
  power system had already
  forced businesses to create a
  “workaround electricity
  system” of noisy, dirty and
  expensive diesel generators.
INDIA’S BUSINESSES LOSE
 MONEY, BUT ABLE TO COPE

• Although very costly for a
  businesses’ bottom line, most
  large businesses were
  prepared and able to cope with
   what may be the “world’s
  worst blackout.”
On Monday (July 30th), India
 was forced to buy power
     from tiny Bhutan
HOW BAD WAS IT?
• The worst blackout in India’s
  history that spread to more than
  half the country Tuesday,
  reinforced concerns that the
  nation’s inefficient power sector
  could undermine its long-term
  economic ambitions to become a
  SUPERPOWER.
INTERNATIONAL
      EMBARASSMENT
The scale of the blackouts caused
India acute embarrassment on the
        international stage.
CAUTION:

 DON’T THINK THAT INDIA IS THE
ONLY COUNTRY THAT IS VULNERABLE
       TO POWER OUTAGES
POWER STABILITY: HARDER
      TO ACHIEVE
• India is NOT uniquely vulnerable to
  large-scale grid failures.
• The growing complexity and
  reliance on the electric grid is
  making power stability harder to
  achieve in both developed and
  fast-growing countries.
CAUSES AND EFFECTS

YOU CAN NEVER PREVENT ALL THE
 POSSIBLE FAILURES AND THEIR
           EFFECTS
THE CAUSES:

    1) India’s antiquated power
  systems, 2) An increase in peak
demand caused not by the heat, but
  by an unexpected need to pump
  water from wells for agricultural
 uses due to much less rain during
      the monsoon season, …
THE CAUSES (continued):

 3) Low current rainfall has also
     restricted the amount of
hydroelectric power delivered by
  dams, normally a significant
   percentage of India’s power
Monday’s failure was also
blamed on individual states
  drawing too much power
from the grid, in defiance of
        regulations.
Central government was
supposed to warn states if
    they were drawing
excessive power from the
 system, but NO warnings
were issued on Monday or
        Tuesday.
GAUHATI: NO POWER IN THE
          LINES
NEW DELHI: HUGE TRAFFIC
   JAM; JULY 30, 2012
NEW DELHI: COMMUTERS
OUTSIDE SUBWAY STATION
NEW DELHI: COMMUTERS
    WAITING FOR TRAIN SERVICE
•
DIMENSIONS OF THE
           IMPACTS
• All power-dependent
  community functions (e.g.,
  government, business
  enterprise, hospitals,
  schools, …) in 19 States,
 were shut down.
DIMENSIONS OF THE
            IMPACTS
• Some major city hospitals
  and office buildings had to
  fire up diesel generators.
DIMENSIONS OF THE
        IMPACTS

• Trains and subways brought
  to a halt.
DIMENSIONS OF THE
            IMPACTS
• Two hundred miners were
  stranded in three deep coal
  shafts in the state of West
  Bengal when their electric
  elevators stopped working.
DIMENSIONS OF THE
           IMPACTS
• Wheat-belts:Punjab and
  Uttar Pradesh in the Ganges
  Plains, needing electricity to
  pump water from wells, were
  hit hard
POWER RESTORED, FOR
       NOW
 3:00 PM TUESDAY, JULY 31 FOR
     EMERGENCY SERVICES
   “NORMAL” ON WEDNESDAY,
         AUGUST 1, 2012
NEW DELHI: POWER RESTORED;
CABLES AND WIRES NOTWITHSTANDING

•
A TYPICAL UNANSWERED
       QUESTION
  Were the power outages
 “accidents” that were just
    waiting to happen?
A TYPICAL UNANSWERED
       QUESTION
 Are the causes of India’s power
outages more political than from
lack of technology or inadequate
           engineering?
A TYPICAL UNANSWERED
       QUESTION
Big cities like New Delhi have
backup power, but what might
 happen during surgery in a
         small town?.
A TYPICAL UNANSWERED
       QUESTION
How many will die because of
  this historic blackout...
   10? ---100? --- 1,000?
INDIA’S LONG TERM NEED
        FOR POWER
 At present, about 300 million people in
India have no access to power, and 300
million more have only sporadic access.
THE LONG TERM
        QUESTION

   Grappling with the slowest
economic growth in nine years,
 can India pump $1 trillion into
 infrastructure and power over
the next five years, as planned?
TIME FOR A SHIFT IN
        TECHNOLOGY

• India's disaster illustrates the
  perils of the current practice of
  relying on manual control of
  the power grid.
THE GRID OPERATOR
• The primary function of grid
  operator is to anticipate load
  and to maintain a steady
  balance between power
  supply and demand.
THE GRID SIGNAL

• The grid signal operates at a
  set frequency—60 hertz in the
  U.S. and 50 hertz in India —and
  when supply and demand fall
  out of sync, the frequency will
  either dip or rise.
KEEPING THE GRID SIGNAL
        STEADY

• TIn the U.S., grid operators
  have "hot" generators on
  standby to ramp up power in
  order to keep a close-to-steady
  frequency, which works if the
  generators are not maxed out.
COSTLY AND
  IMPRACTICAL IN INDIA
• In a country like India, it's
  both costly and impractical
  to keep 10 percent of the
  generation capacity on
  contingency when you may
  only use it once in a lifetime.
THE TECHNOLOGY TO KEEP THE
  SIGNAL STEADY EXISTS NOW

• A shift in technology from manual
  control of the grid (which is common in
  India and many places around the
  world) to more advanced control
  technology can help grids recover
  more effectively from outages when
  they occur.

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47791

  • 1. TWO SUCCESSIVE POWER BLACK- OUTS IN INDIA IMPACT 0NE-HALF OF INDIA’S 1.2 BILLION PEOPLE JULY 30-31 and following, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
  • 3. BLACKOUTS ON TWO SUCCESSIVE DAYS CREATE CHAOS IN INDIA OVER 600 MILLION PEOPLE AND ALL COMMUNITY POWER-DEPENDENT SYSTEMS AFFECTED
  • 4. DIMENSIONS OF THE BLACKOUTS • Power grids in 19 of India’s 28 States stretching from Assam, near China, to the Himalayas and the northwestern deserts of Rajasthan, shut down
  • 5. What is dramatic about these blackouts is that they have impacted the entire country.
  • 6. BLACKOUT NO SURPRISE FOR INDIA’S BUSINESSES • India's well known, unreliable power system had already forced businesses to create a “workaround electricity system” of noisy, dirty and expensive diesel generators.
  • 7. INDIA’S BUSINESSES LOSE MONEY, BUT ABLE TO COPE • Although very costly for a businesses’ bottom line, most large businesses were prepared and able to cope with what may be the “world’s worst blackout.”
  • 8. On Monday (July 30th), India was forced to buy power from tiny Bhutan
  • 9. HOW BAD WAS IT? • The worst blackout in India’s history that spread to more than half the country Tuesday, reinforced concerns that the nation’s inefficient power sector could undermine its long-term economic ambitions to become a SUPERPOWER.
  • 10. INTERNATIONAL EMBARASSMENT The scale of the blackouts caused India acute embarrassment on the international stage.
  • 11. CAUTION: DON’T THINK THAT INDIA IS THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT IS VULNERABLE TO POWER OUTAGES
  • 12. POWER STABILITY: HARDER TO ACHIEVE • India is NOT uniquely vulnerable to large-scale grid failures. • The growing complexity and reliance on the electric grid is making power stability harder to achieve in both developed and fast-growing countries.
  • 13. CAUSES AND EFFECTS YOU CAN NEVER PREVENT ALL THE POSSIBLE FAILURES AND THEIR EFFECTS
  • 14. THE CAUSES: 1) India’s antiquated power systems, 2) An increase in peak demand caused not by the heat, but by an unexpected need to pump water from wells for agricultural uses due to much less rain during the monsoon season, …
  • 15. THE CAUSES (continued): 3) Low current rainfall has also restricted the amount of hydroelectric power delivered by dams, normally a significant percentage of India’s power
  • 16. Monday’s failure was also blamed on individual states drawing too much power from the grid, in defiance of regulations.
  • 17. Central government was supposed to warn states if they were drawing excessive power from the system, but NO warnings were issued on Monday or Tuesday.
  • 18. GAUHATI: NO POWER IN THE LINES
  • 19. NEW DELHI: HUGE TRAFFIC JAM; JULY 30, 2012
  • 21. NEW DELHI: COMMUTERS WAITING FOR TRAIN SERVICE •
  • 22. DIMENSIONS OF THE IMPACTS • All power-dependent community functions (e.g., government, business enterprise, hospitals, schools, …) in 19 States, were shut down.
  • 23. DIMENSIONS OF THE IMPACTS • Some major city hospitals and office buildings had to fire up diesel generators.
  • 24. DIMENSIONS OF THE IMPACTS • Trains and subways brought to a halt.
  • 25. DIMENSIONS OF THE IMPACTS • Two hundred miners were stranded in three deep coal shafts in the state of West Bengal when their electric elevators stopped working.
  • 26. DIMENSIONS OF THE IMPACTS • Wheat-belts:Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in the Ganges Plains, needing electricity to pump water from wells, were hit hard
  • 27. POWER RESTORED, FOR NOW 3:00 PM TUESDAY, JULY 31 FOR EMERGENCY SERVICES “NORMAL” ON WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 1, 2012
  • 28. NEW DELHI: POWER RESTORED; CABLES AND WIRES NOTWITHSTANDING •
  • 29. A TYPICAL UNANSWERED QUESTION Were the power outages “accidents” that were just waiting to happen?
  • 30. A TYPICAL UNANSWERED QUESTION Are the causes of India’s power outages more political than from lack of technology or inadequate engineering?
  • 31. A TYPICAL UNANSWERED QUESTION Big cities like New Delhi have backup power, but what might happen during surgery in a small town?.
  • 32. A TYPICAL UNANSWERED QUESTION How many will die because of this historic blackout... 10? ---100? --- 1,000?
  • 33. INDIA’S LONG TERM NEED FOR POWER At present, about 300 million people in India have no access to power, and 300 million more have only sporadic access.
  • 34. THE LONG TERM QUESTION Grappling with the slowest economic growth in nine years, can India pump $1 trillion into infrastructure and power over the next five years, as planned?
  • 35. TIME FOR A SHIFT IN TECHNOLOGY • India's disaster illustrates the perils of the current practice of relying on manual control of the power grid.
  • 36. THE GRID OPERATOR • The primary function of grid operator is to anticipate load and to maintain a steady balance between power supply and demand.
  • 37. THE GRID SIGNAL • The grid signal operates at a set frequency—60 hertz in the U.S. and 50 hertz in India —and when supply and demand fall out of sync, the frequency will either dip or rise.
  • 38. KEEPING THE GRID SIGNAL STEADY • TIn the U.S., grid operators have "hot" generators on standby to ramp up power in order to keep a close-to-steady frequency, which works if the generators are not maxed out.
  • 39. COSTLY AND IMPRACTICAL IN INDIA • In a country like India, it's both costly and impractical to keep 10 percent of the generation capacity on contingency when you may only use it once in a lifetime.
  • 40. THE TECHNOLOGY TO KEEP THE SIGNAL STEADY EXISTS NOW • A shift in technology from manual control of the grid (which is common in India and many places around the world) to more advanced control technology can help grids recover more effectively from outages when they occur.

Editor's Notes

  1. More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/collections/collection52.htm