Brian Kelsey's presentation at the Temple Economic Development Corporation's Annual Business Appreciation Banquet on April 23, 2014

1. Miracle or Myth: The Real Story of Job Creation
& Economic Development in Texas
April 23, 2014

2. 2
1. Examine the facts underlying the
“miracle or myth” debate
2. Discuss political environment’s
impact on Texas EDCs
3. Review latest available data on
Temple’s economy
Presentation Overview

3. 3
St. Louis Post-Dispatch via Associated Press
Texas: Miracle or Myth?
“People are fleeing high tax, high
regulatory states to come and be a
part of what some people refer to
as the Texas Miracle. It’s not a
miracle…just common sense.”
Governor Rick Perry

4. Texas is leading the U.S.
in job creation
4

5. 5
June 09 Feb 2014 Change Percent
Texas 10,283,700 11,406,000 1,122,300 11%
California 14,361,500 15,350,400 988,900 7%
Florida 7,221,100 7,718,500 497,400 7%
New York 8,522,600 8,985,700 463,100 5%
Michigan 3,837,700 4,117,300 279,600 7%
Ohio 5,042,800 5,280,000 237,200 5%
Indiana 2,776,400 2,965,900 189,500 7%
Massachusetts 3,198,300 3,386,600 188,300 6%
North Carolina 3,897,000 4,080,900 183,900 5%
Colorado 2,239,900 2,422,300 182,400 8%
United States 130,944,000 137,736,000 6,792,000 5%
Miracle:
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Data is total non-farm employment, seasonally adjusted.
17% of all net new jobs in US since end
of recession have been created in TX

6. Texas has the fastest growing
economy in the U.S.
6

7. 7
Miracle:
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts. Data is nominal GDP (not adjusted for inflation) in thousands of dollars.
Texas economy is growing twice as fast
as the U.S. economy as a whole
GDP 2009 GDP 2012 Change Percent
Texas $1,140,218,000 $1,397,369,000 $257,151,000 23%
California $1,818,627,000 $2,003,479,000 $184,852,000 10%
New York $1,080,441,000 $1,205,930,000 $125,489,000 12%
Illinois $625,423,000 $695,238,000 $69,815,000 11%
Pennsylvania $540,231,000 $600,897,000 $60,666,000 11%
Ohio $451,574,000 $509,393,000 $57,819,000 13%
Florida $721,175,000 $777,164,000 $55,989,000 8%
Michigan $349,195,000 $400,504,000 $51,309,000 15%
Indiana $252,488,000 $298,625,000 $46,137,000 18%
Massachusetts $360,675,000 $403,823,000 $43,148,000 12%
United States $13,869,678,000 $15,566,077,000 $1,696,399,000 12%

8. People are fleeing California
for Texas in droves
8

9. 9
Myth:
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats. Data is # of tax returns used as proxy for households.
0.2% of all households in California are
moving to Texas on average per year
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Outmigration from California to Texas, 1996-2011
(# of Households)

10. 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net Migration, California to Texas, 1996-2011
(# of Households)
10
Myth:
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats. Data is # of tax returns used as proxy for households.
Net migration from California to Texas
averages only 6,200 HHs per year

11. 293
615
1,737
4,556
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Washington
Georgia
District of Columbia
Colorado
Net Migration from Texas, 2000-2011
(# of Households)
11
Myth:
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats. Data is # of tax returns used as proxy for households, 2000-2011.
Texas has a net loss of households to 3
states & Washington DC since 2000

12. Most new jobs in Texas
are low-wage
12

13. 115,318
13%
225,887
26%
514,476
60%
0 200,000 400,000 600,000
Jobs in occupations paying < living
wage for 1 adult ($8.76)
Jobs in occupations paying < $10.10
per hour
Jobs in occupations paying < living
wage for 1 adult & 1 child ($18.41)
60% of new jobs in Texas since 2009 are in occupations
that pay < living wage for family of 1 adult & 1 child
13
Depends:
Source: EMSI. Living wage data from MIT’s Living Wage Calculator. Analysis uses median wage by occupation, 2013. Texas added 856,437 jobs total.
Most jobs pay enough to support one
adult, but not a single parent family
Share of New Jobs Created in Texas by Wage Range, 2009-2013

14. Economic growth in Texas is due entirely
to oil and gas extraction
14

15. 15
• 4,400 establishments
• 250,000 jobs
• $132 billion in revenue
• $75 billion in exports
• 5.3 jobs multiplier
• Responsible for 13% of total job
growth in Texas since 2009
Oil & Gas Extraction (NAICS 2111)
Source: EMSI. Share of total job growth calculated using direct employment plus multiplier effect.
Myth: Oil and gas extraction is a big part of
the story but not the whole story

16. 16
What would the impact be of a 20%
decrease in OGE industry sales?
Jobs
Mining, Quarrying, & Oil and Gas Extraction -54,808
Government -29,192
Retail Trade -22,721
Health Care and Social Assistance -22,632
Construction -21,773
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services -17,082
Accommodation and Food Services -15,924
Finance and Insurance -12,241
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing -9,191
Manufacturing -8,011
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation -4,180
266,000 jobs lost
$16.4 billion in
earnings lost
66,000 workers age
55 and older would
be impacted
Source: EMSI. OGE is Oil and Gas Extraction (NAICS 2111). Table shows selected industries only.

17. 17
What if OGE industry sales were $0?
Jobs
Mining, Quarrying, & Oil and Gas Extraction -274,040
Government -145,961
Retail Trade -113,603
Health Care and Social Assistance -113,162
Construction -108,867
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services -85,412
Accommodation and Food Services -79,618
Finance and Insurance -61,203
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing -45,955
Manufacturing -40,055
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation -20,899
1.3 million jobs lost
(1 out of 10)
$82.1 billion in
earnings lost
330,000 workers age
55 and older would
be impacted
Source: EMSI. OGE is Oil and Gas Extraction (NAICS 2111). Table shows selected industries only.

18. Texas EDCs
18

19. 19
Texas EDCs need to take a more active
role in workforce development
Source: Area Development Online, Texas Comptroller.
Availability of skilled labor is
now #1 site selection factor.
Texas EDCs spent $736 million
(2% of $34 billion in total tax
collections for state) in 2011.
0.8% of EDC expenditures
were for job training.

20. 20
17%
28%
43%
59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Asian
% Pop Age 25+ with Completed Postsecondary Degree, 2012
2000
Asian 54%
White 36%
Black 21%
Hispanic 12%
Education inequality is serious threat
to state’s future economic prosperity
Source: US Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2000 Census.

21. Temple Economy
21

22. 22
• Job growth of 5.2% (6,500 jobs)
since end of recession ranking
16th among 25 Texas MSAs
• Temple is 34th fastest growing city
50K+ pop in TX since 2010 (%)
• Temple sales tax base nearing pre-
recession levels (likely exceeded
$900 million in 2013)
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX MSA
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted (jobs). US
Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Texas State Data Center (population). Texas Comptroller.

23. 23
• Texas more miracle than myth but
state cannot afford complacency
• EDCs are in a unique position to
mobilize regional partnerships &
develop innovative solutions for
education & workforce training
• Time for big ideas is now
Summary

24. @civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com
512-731-7851
brian@civicanalytics.com
Brian Kelsey, Principal & Founder
7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, Texas 78757