1.
CRFB.org

2.
CRFB.org
Policymakers Have Committed Trillions to Save The Economy
$2.4 trillion
$1.8 trillion
$307 billion
>$5.9 trillion*
$3.6 trillion
$380 billion
$2.4 trillion
$80 billion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Federal Reserve Actions Legislative Actions Administrative Actions
Amount Authorized
Amount Disbursed/Committed
Deficit Impact
Trillions
*Some Fed facilities and programs have no announced cap or maximum, in which case, we assume the
max as the largest amount disbursed or committed since the crisis began.

3.
CRFB.org
$330
$270
$135
$100
$201
$100
$53
$147
$300
$142
$194
$13
$80
$670
$293 $282
$646
$500
$200 $192
$150
$300
$780
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Paycheck
Protection
Program
Economic
Impact
Payments
Unemployment
Benefits
Business
Tax Relief
Economic
Stabilization
Fund
Health
Provider
Relief
Families
First
Coronavirus
Relief
Fund
Tax Filing
Delay
Other
Committed/Disbursed (Tranche I)
Committed/Disbursed (Tranche II)
Remaining
Total Deficit Impact
And Half the Fiscal Support is Out the Door
Billions
3

4.
CRFB.org
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
January February March April May
Illustrative Monthly After-Tax Income (Billions), Amortizing Rebates over Four Months
Market Income
(minus taxes)
Government Transfers
(excluding UI and rebates)
Amortized Rebates
Unemployment
7.4% Increase
from February
Efforts Stabilized the Economy, But at a Cost
4
May is a rough CRFB projection, assuming no net change in market and transfer income . Refunds amortized over four months.
Note: updated 6/22 to correct an error that omitted employer pension and payroll tax contributions from income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5.
CRFB.org
5
$1.1 trillion
$1.8 trillion
$0
$600
$1,200
$1,800
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Deficit Projections (March 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
We Entered This Crisis with Trillion-Dollar Deficits
Billions
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations

6.
CRFB.org
Deficit Absent
Legislation
$430
Deficit Absent
Legislation
$483
Deficit Absent
Legislation
$475
$984 Billion $1,015 Billion $1,000 Billion
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2019 2020 2021
Other Legislation Since 2015 Tax Extenders and Doc Fix 2017 Tax Law BBA 2018 BBA 2019
Thanks Largely to Tax Cuts and Spending Hikes
Billions
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB calculations
$554B
56%
$532B
52%
$526B
53%

7.
CRFB.org
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Now We’re in an Economic Crisis
Real GDP (trillions)
Source: Congressional Budget Office
HISTORIC PROJECTED

8.
CRFB.org
8
$400
$1,000
$1,600
$2,200
$2,800
$3,400
$4,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Deficit Projections (March 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
And Now Deficits are Slated to Quadruple
Billions
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations

9.
CRFB.org
9
$3.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$400
$1,000
$1,600
$2,200
$2,800
$3,400
$4,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Deficit Projections (March 2020)
Updated Deficit Projections (June 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Billions
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations
And Now Deficits are Slated to Quadruple

10.
CRFB.org
10
$3.9 trillion
$2.4 trillion
$3.7 trillion
$1.7 trillion
$400
$1,000
$1,600
$2,200
$2,800
$3,400
$4,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Deficit Projections (March 2020)
Alternative Scenario
Updated Deficit Projections (June 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Billions
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations
And Now Deficits are Slated to Quadruple

11.
CRFB.org
11
Current
Law
Alternative
Scenario
Pre-Crisis Deficit (CBO March 2020) $14,164 $16,936
Coronavirus Preparedness & Response Supplemental Appropriations Act $8 $8
Families First Coronavirus Response Act $192 $192
Coronavirus Aid, Recovery, & Economic Security (CARES) Act $1,721 $1,721
Paycheck Protection Program & Health Care Enhancement Act and Paycheck Protection
Program Flexibility Act* $483 $483
Additional Fiscal Relief (not yet enacted) n/a $1,000
Effect of Economic Changes (including interest rates) $2,119 $2,004
Debt Service as a result of above changes $1,212 $1,441
Total Increase in Projected Deficits $5,735 $6,840
Projected Deficit (CRFB) $19,899 $23,776
Projected Deficit as a Share of GDP 7.5% 8.8%
Source: Congressional Budget Office and CRFB calculations. *Because the Paycheck Protection Program
(PPP) is undersubscribed, we believe this bill would cost less than scored by CBO. However, the
Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act would increase the direct and indirect cost of the PPP so we
assume it restores net costs to CBO’s score.
The Recession and Response Are Both Costly

12.
CRFB.org
12
80.7%
97.8%
35%
55%
75%
95%
115%
135%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Debt Projections (March 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Causing Debt to Eclipse the Economy This Year
Percent of GDP
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations

13.
CRFB.org
13
101%
118%
35%
55%
75%
95%
115%
135%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Debt Projections (March 2020)
Updated Debt Projections (June 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Percent of GDP
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations
Causing Debt to Eclipse the Economy This Year

14.
CRFB.org
14
102%
131%
101%
118%
35%
55%
75%
95%
115%
135%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Pre-Crisis Debt Projections (March 2020)
Alternative Scenario
Updated Debt Projections (June 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Percent of GDP
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations
Causing Debt to Eclipse the Economy This Year

15.
CRFB.org
15
269%
220%
30%
80%
130%
180%
230%
280%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Pre-Crisis Long-Term Debt Projections (March 2020)
Alternative Scenario
Updated Debt Projections (June 2020)
HISTORIC PROJECTED
And Reach Unprecedented Levels Over Long-Term
Percent of GDP
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations

16.
CRFB.org
16
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
HISTORIC PROJECTED
Major Trust Funds Are Also In Trouble
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations
Size of Trust Fund Reserve Relative to Annual Costs

17.
CRFB.org
Don’t Believe Pervasive Debt Myths
➢Low interest rates don’t make debt costless
▪ Low rates are in spite of, not because of, high debt
▪ Debt not paid back must be rolled over as interest rates rise
▪ One-time costs are added to high structural deficits
17

18.
CRFB.org
Don’t Believe Pervasive Debt Myths
➢Low interest rates don’t make debt costless
▪ Low rates are in spite of, not because of, high debt
▪ Debt not paid back must be rolled over as interest rates rise
▪ One-time costs are added to high structural deficits
➢We can’t reduce debt easily like after World War II
18

19.
CRFB.org
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
AmericanCivilWar
WorldWarII
KoreanWar
VietnamWar
GulfWar
IraqWar
WorldWarI
Unlike After Past Wars, This Debt is Here to Stay
Source: Congressional Budget Office, CRFB Calculations

20.
CRFB.org
Don’t Believe Pervasive Debt Myths
➢Low interest rates don’t make debt costless
▪ Low rates are in spite of, not because of, high debt
▪ Debt not paid back must be rolled over as interest rates rise
▪ One-time costs are added to high structural deficits
➢We can’t reduce debt easily like after World War II
▪ After WWII, we ran ~2 decades of roughly balanced budgets
▪ Over that time, nominal economic growth exceeded 6% per year
▪ Reducing debt at WWII pace would require $20 trillion of deficit reduction,
6% real annual growth, or 12% annual inflation
20

21.
CRFB.org
Don’t Believe Pervasive Debt Myths
➢Low interest rates don’t make debt costless
▪ Low rates are in spite of, not because of, high debt
▪ Debt not paid back must be rolled over as interest rates rise
▪ One-time costs are added to high structural deficits
➢We can’t reduce debt easily like after World War II
▪ After WWII, we ran ~2 decades of roughly balanced budgets
▪ Over that time, nominal economic growth exceeded 6% per year
▪ Reducing debt at WWII pace would require $20 trillion of deficit reduction,
6% real annual growth, or 12% annual inflation
➢The Fed can’t and won’t buy our debt forever
21

22.
CRFB.org
Japan Japan Japan Japan
China China China China
Other Foreign Other Foreign Other Foreign Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic Holdings
Domestic Holdings Domestic Holdings Domestic Holdings
Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Dec. 2019 Feb. 2020 Mar. 2020 Apr. 2020
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
The Fed has Absorbed Most New COVID Debt

23.
CRFB.org
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3
The Fed has Absorbed Most New COVID Debt
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department

24.
CRFB.org
Don’t Believe Pervasive Debt Myths
➢Low interest rates don’t make debt costless
▪ Low rates are in spite of, not because of, high debt
▪ Debt not paid back must be rolled over as interest rates rise
▪ One-time costs are added to high structural deficits
➢We can’t reduce debt easily like after World War II
▪ After WWII, we ran ~2 decades of roughly balanced budgets
▪ Over that time, nominal economic growth exceeded 6% per year
▪ Reducing debt at WWII pace would require $20 trillion of deficit reduction,
6% real annual growth, or 12% annual inflation
➢The Fed can’t and won’t buy our debt forever
▪ Monetizing debt in good times could drive high inflation
▪ In normal times, reserves pay interest like bonds
▪ Low interest rates can be economically damaging
24