3. 2017 GDP forecast
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2017
2016 2017
Global
3.1 3.5
-1,8
-3,3
3
41.2%
58.8%
2017 GDP distribution
Advanced
Emerging
Latin America
ASEAN
(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, Vietnam.
Eurozone
Russia
USA
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1.6
2.3
-1
1.1
1.6
2.6
1.4
-0.2
1.4
5
4.9
2016
2017
1.7
4. Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2017
4
Global trends 2017 (I)
Inflationary
pressures
Populist
movements Emerging and advanced economies
expand in a higher synchronised way
A more synchronised and
upturn global growth
* Brexit, elections in Germany and France, Italian political instability
Expansionary fiscal policies, oil prices rebound, low interest rates
63% of GDP faces political uncertainty
6. Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2017 6
A more synchronised and upturn global growth
Higher optimism of global economic
activity
Brazil, Argentina and Russia come out of recession
UE economic sentiment at highest level
Lower fears in China (currency, overcapacity...)
Political risks reduce potential economic
growth
Trump economic policy
Le Pen, Beppe Grillo...
Brexit negotiations
Diplomatic tensions
7. 4,2
4,5
4,8
2016 2017 2018
Economic growth in
emerging economies(%)
Emerging economies are gaining momentum
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IIF, CaixaBank Research, 2017 7
Brazil and Russia come out of recession and contribute to global growth
Other positive data
✓ Strong capital flows to emerging
markets ($29,8 billion in March)
✓ MSCI increased by 10% during Q1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
China India Indonesia Brazil Mexico Russia Turkey
Emerging countries GDP growth
%
2016 2017 2018
8. 3,8 4 3,8
7,9 7,9
9,3 9,3
9,8
3,9
8,5
10,3
6,6
5,1
6,9
7,3
7,6
6,8
7,2
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP and GDP per capita in India
%, $
Real GDP (Left axis)
GDP per capita PPP (right axis)
India: soft deceleration but brilliant economic
growth
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and World Bank, 2017 8
Forecast
➢ Exceptional deceleration due to the
elimination of the largest banknotes
➢ In the last 17 years, India’s GDP
per capita multiplied by 3
Population: 1.3 billion
Nominal GDP: 2.2 tn$
PIB pc: 6,187 $ PPP
Note: Since 1993, poverty rate has reduced by 50% to 22% of indian population
9. 6,1
-1,8
-7,7
-11,2
-25,4
7,9
1,30,5
-13,2
-5,5
-18,8
-13,8
16,7
38,1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2014 2015 2016 Jan.-16 Feb.-16 Jan.-17 Feb.-17
China's external sector
Annualchange, % ($ terms)
Exports Imports
China: less negative surprises
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Reuters and Safe, 2017 9
Economic growth stabilized at 6.7%
Since 2000, GDP per capita multiplied by 5
A possible change on the trend of China’s external
sector
* Data affected by Chinese New Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Real GDP and GDP per capita in China
GDP per capita $, PPP (left axis)
Real GDP (right axis)
$ %
10. China: poverty and inequality have diminished
Sourcee: Círculo de Empresarios based on, OECD, 2017
10
Since 1980, 700 million people out of poverty
Great progress but there is a still long way to go
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Rural poverty rate in China
% rural population
44,5
45,0
45,5
46,0
46,5
47,0
47,5
48,0
48,5
49,0
49,5
Gini coefficient
Index
11. European Union: economic growth although
political risks
Political uncertainty
11Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD, 2017
Note: The darker the colour, higher uncertainty
Brexit negotiations
Elections in Germany
and France
Economic and political
instability in Italy
ItalyFranceGermanySpain
1.9%3.2% 1.2% 0.9%
Real GDP growth, 2016
%
(1.8) (1.4)(2.5)
2017 forecasts in brakets
(1)
63% of GDP affected by political uncertainty...
12. European Union: Brexit (I)
12Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bertelsmann, 2017
United
Kingdom
EU-27
After art. 50, it will take at least 2 years of negotiation
UK faces a payment between 40-60 billion € in terms of budget agreements
Spain’s economy extra contribution will be aproximately 906 million €
138
7
10
EU revenue impact
Billion €
EU revenue without UK
UK contributions that used
to flow back into the UK
EU net revenue loss from
Brexit
13. 0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4
Real GDP growth and inflation
Annual change
Real GDP Inflation
European Union: Brexit (II)
13
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bertelsmann, ONS, 2017
Pound depreciation has accelerated UK exports
Brexit
Brexit
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
Pound performance against the euro and dollar
GBP/USD GBP/EUR
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
UK merchandiseexports
Billion £
14. 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Eurozone PMI composite
Germany Eurozone France
Eurozone: stronger confidence despite the
political election calendar
14
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission and Markit, 2017
“Poltical noise” did not affect European confidence, yet
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
Economic sentiment
Index Eurozone Germany
France
Brexit
Trump
Jan-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Ene-17 Mar-17
15. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission, 2017
Eurozone: growth and labor market
Since May-2009 Eurozone registered its lowest
unemployment rate
15
Contribution to GDP by components
Percentage points
EMPLEO
Private
consumption
+1
+0.4
Government
expenditure
Investment
+0.5
Private consumption continues as the key driver
of economic growth whereas investment remain
weak
22
17,7
11,6 10,1 9,9 9,5 8,6 8 7,8 7 6,1 5,2 4,1
2017 unemployment rates
% active population
16. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2017
Eurozone: prices
16
Increase in headline inflation but core remains stable
ECB medium term objective
Since the second half of 2016,
headline inflation pressures have
increased due to higher
commodity prices
1.7
HICP projection, 2017
%
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar.-17
Eurozone HICP evolution 2014-16
Annual change, % Headline Core
17. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, Bank of Spain and
Banque de France, 2017
Eurozone: France
17
Frexit would cost France 30
billion € a year aproximately
Unemployment rate projection
for 2017: 9.9%
(10% in 2016)
* Equivalent to the annual military budget
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP in France
Annual change, %
France Eurozone
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17
France and Germany 10 years debt
(%)
France Germany
26
68Risk premium
18. US: higher growth but risks of protectionism
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research, 2017 18
Hihg uncertainty surrounding the new US economic policy
Expansionary fiscal
policies
Inflation
pressures
Trade relations/
protectionism
Exchange and
interest rates
Main US uncertainty factors
Symptoms of economic acceleration
Full employment
Higher corporate earnings
Stronger core inflation
19. US: strengthening growth
+1.6% 4.7%
Economic growth Unemployment rate
Core
inflation
+2.2%
(February 2017)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BLS, BEA, Pimco, 2017 19
+98,000
(Marzo 2017)
GDP forecast: 2-2,5% pending the New US Administration
+2-2.5%
(2016) (2017)
4.5%
(2016) (March 2017)
Headline
Inflation
+2.7%
(February 2017)
Employment
creation
Wages
+2,7%
(Febrero 2017)
20. US: 3 increases in 2017
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Fed, 2017
20
[0,25-0,5]
[0.75-1]
16 Dic 2015- 15 Dic 2016
US interest rate
%
The Fed expects 2 more increases in 2017, due to the great improvement in the
labour market
[0.25-0.5]
[0.5-0.75]
15 Dic 2016- 16 Mar 2016
16 Mar 2016- actual
Fed dot plot March 2017
%
2017 2018
0
0,25
0,5
0,75
1
1,25
1,5
1,75
2
2,25
2,5
2,75
3
3,25
3,5
3,75
4
22. Commodities
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and Bloomberg, 2017
Gradual acceleration of commodity prices
22
The increase in commodity prices has contributed to a
recovery of emerging markets
The future Trump policies impact on today’s
commodity market
59
69
79
89
99
109
119
129
139
149
159
Commodity prices
Index 2005=100
No-energy Energy Metals
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Gold
Corn
Aluminium
Copper
Oil
Steel
Commodity prices change since Trump
won elections(%)
23. Currency market
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, 2017 23
Political risks and Central Banks influenced in global currencies
The euro, dollar and pound lost share of currency
market due to higher importance of the yuan
48
12
7
33
43
88
30
11
Euro
Basket of currencies, SDR
%
Yen
Yuan
Dolar
Pound
2015
2017
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Argentine
peso
Turkey
Lira
Mexican
peso
British
pound
Chinese
yuan
Euro Japanese
yen
Russian
ruble
Brazilian
real
Currency perfomance against $
1Q-2017
24. Financial markets
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, St Louis Fed, 2017 24
Higher valuation of stocks during Q1
IBEX-35 change 1Q-17
2015: 2016: 2017:
CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange
-8.6 +11.9+12
38,9
14,4 13,4
6,9
5,3 4,9
0,7 0,4
-2,0
-10,2
-12,3
7,9
2,5
4,6
7,3 5,9 5,4 6,4
-1,1
11,9
6,5
3,8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Stock market performance2016 vs 1Q-2017
%
2016 Q1-2017
10
14
18
22
26
30
CBOE volatility index
Brexit
Trump
27. Forecasts: the expansion is extended…
… but at a moderate pace
27
2017* 2018*2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2017
3.2%
2.6%
2.1%
28. Forecasts 2017: composition of growth
2017 GDP Interanual growth projection = 2.8%
• Private consumption = 2.4%
• Public consumption = 0.8%
• Gross fixed capital formation = 3,3%
Domestic demand
% annual change
2.3 ppgrowth contribution
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, April 2017 28
0.5 pp
External demand
Goods and services
% anual change
growth contribution
• Exports = 6.1%
• Imports = 5.2%
29. Current growth
Spain keeps the positive growth
differential with the OECD and the
Eurozone
4th consecutive quarter of positive
contribution of external demand
29Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, Eurostat and OECD, 2017
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
GDP (annual change) and contribution of
domestic and external demand (pp)
Domestic demand Spain
External demand Spain
Spain GDP
Eurozone GDP
OECD GDP
30. Domestic demand: households
30
Consumer spending moderates its growth
and residential investment slows down
Consumer confidence remains stable
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2017
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Spending decisions
% quarterly change
Residential investment
Private consumption
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
Feb-13
Apr13
Jun-13
Aug13
Oct-13
Dec13
Feb-14
Apr14
Jun-14
Aug14
Oct-14
Dec14
Feb-15
Apr15
Jun-15
Aug15
Oct-15
Dec15
Feb-16
Apr16
Jun-16
Aug16
Oct-16
Dec16
Feb17
Confidence indicators
Normalized indicators (difference between the indicator and its
average, divided by its standard deviation)
Retail trade Consumers
31. GDP by sectors
31
Tertiarisation of the economy
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016Q4
2016Q1
2015Q2
2014Q3
2013Q4
2013Q1
2012Q2
2011Q3
2010Q4
2010Q1
2009Q2
2008Q3
2007Q4
2007Q1
2006Q2
2005Q3
2004Q4
2004Q1
2003Q2
2002Q3
2001Q4
2001Q1
2000Q2
1999Q3
1998Q4
1998Q1
1997Q2
1996Q3
1995Q4
1995Q1
GDP mp by sector (% total)
Nettax
SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTUREINDUSTRY
ENERGY
PRIMARY SECTOR
4Q 2016
9,2
2,5
12,8
3,4
5,1
67
2,52,54,1
12,813,4
16,5
3,43,0
3,4 5,1
9,8
8,5
67,061,2
60,2
9,210,17,3
2016Q42007Q41995Q4
32. Employed by sectors
32
Tertiarisation of employment
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016Q4
2016Q1
2015Q2
2014Q3
2013Q4
2013Q1
2012Q2
2011Q3
2010Q4
2010Q1
2009Q2
2008Q3
2007Q4
2007Q1
2006Q2
2005Q3
2004Q4
2004Q1
2003Q2
2002Q3
2001Q4
2001Q1
2000Q2
1999Q3
1998Q4
1998Q1
1997Q2
1996Q3
1995Q4
1995Q1
Employed by sector (% total)
SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
ENERGY
MANUFACTUREINDUSTRY
PRIMARY SECTOR
4Q 2016
78,5
10,7
1,2
5,6
4,0 4,03,97,1
10,712,9
17,3 1,2
1,1
1,3
5,6
12,7
9,0
78,5
69,465,3
2016Q42007Q41995Q4
33. Labour market (I)
Unemployment rate in Spain Feb. 2017 = 18% of labour force
vs. Eurozone average = 9.5% (Eurostat)
33Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2017
8
9,5
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
UnemploymentEU28
% labour force
34. Labour market (II)
SEPE data - March 2017:
▪ ▼ employed = 48,559 r/ Feb.
▪ ▲ affiliates = 161,754 r/ Feb.
▪ ▲ new contracts = 1,732,773
34
Between 2013 and 2016
unemployment has been
reduced by 1 million people and
affiliates have increased by
almost 1.5 million.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, April 2017
16.393.866
17.849.055
17.910.007
4.763.680
3.702.974
3.702.317
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
16.000.000
16.500.000
17.000.000
17.500.000
18.000.000
18.500.000
19.000.000
19.500.000
20.000.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Affiliates
Evolution of the affiliation to Social Securityand registered
unemployed
Persons
Affiliates Unemployed
Unemployed
35. Prices
March 2017:
▪ Annual CPI decreases to 2.3% (vs.
3% in February), mainly because of
the increase in energy prices.
▪ Prices are rising above the
Eurozone average
▪ Core inflatin is around 1%.
35Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, Eurostat and Bank of Spain, 2017
2,3
0,9
1,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
General and core inflation
% annual change
CPI Spain
Core inflation Spain*
CPI Eurozone
* Without energyand non-processedfood
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Contribution to monthly CPI Services
Industrial non-energy services
Processed food
Non processed food
36. Financial conditions
36
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on bank of Spain, 2017
Note: Credit to households and business measured in stock terms
Credit increases
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sep13
Nov13
Jan14
Mar14
May14
Jul14
Sep14
Nov14
Jan15
Mar15
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Credit to households
% annual change
Total
House purchase
Consumption and other
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sep13
Nov13
Jan14
Mar14
May14
Jul14
Sep14
Nov14
Jan15
Mar15
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Credit to business
% annual change Total
Resident business
Others
37. Public debt
The fall is mainly explained by
the real GDP increase
37
Public debt was 99.4% of GDP in 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, European Commission and Ministry of Economy, 2017
58,0
54,2
51,3
47,6
45,3
42,3
38,9
35,5
39,4
52,7
60,1
69,5
85,7
95,5
100,4
99,8 99,4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Public debt
% GDP
38. 2016 (anual change) – Trade balance
Geographical distribution (%)
ExportsImports
Source: Círculo de Empresarios, based on Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, February 2017
External sector
38
Exports ▲ 1.7% 254,530 M€
Imports ▼ 0.4% 273,284 M€
BALANCE ▼ Deficit 22.4% -18,754 M€
▼ 37,8%
energy deficit
Exports
Capital goods
Automotive industry
Food, beverages and
tobacco
Imports
Capital goods
Chemical products
Automotive industry
Top 3 sectors (% of total)
20.3
17.7
16.9
22
15.6
13.6
-94.159,9 -18.754,0
-100.000
-50.000
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Million € Exports Imports Balance
Europe
72
EU
66,3
America
10,4
Asia
9,4
Africa
6,4
Other
1,8
Exportaciones
Europe
62,6
EU
57
Asia
19,5
China
8,7
America
10,4
Africa
7,3
Other
0,2
Importaciones
goods goods
39. Foreign investment in Spain 2016
39Source: Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, 2017
Gross productive investment = 23.476 million €
• OECD countries → 85% (▲ 4.5%).
• EU → 50% (▼ 21%).
• Latin America → 10% (▲14%).
Main sectors of destination
(% over total investment and anual change)
• Supply of gas and electricity = 17.3% (▲10.1%)
• Real estate activities =13.7% (▲11.2%)
• Financial services = 7.8% (▲ 242%)
12 3
USA
(21.1%)
Netherlands
(9.5%)
Lux
(10.5%)
Investors (% over total investment and anual change)
In contrast with international context, with
investements between countries
decreasing
14.686
17.282
20162
23.766 23.476
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross productive investment in Spain
Million €
Foreign direct investment
40. Interest rates and risk premiums
40
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain and national Central Banks, 2017
The risk premium remained stable around 110 bp
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
7-Apr-15
7-May-15
7-Jun-15
7-Jul-15
7-Aug-15
7-Sep-15
7-Oct-15
7-Nov-15
7-Dec-15
7-Jan-16
7-Feb-16
7-Mar-16
7-Apr-16
7-May-16
7-Jun-16
7-Jul-16
7-Aug-16
7-Sep-16
7-Oct-16
7-Nov-16
7-Dec-16
7-Jan-17
7-Feb-17
7-Mar-17
7-Apr-17
Ten years bond yield. Spain and Germany (%)
Risk premium (bp)
Spain Germany Risk Premium
Risk
premium
Interest rate
41. Spain’s position in international rankings
Italy
Iceland
Switzerland
SPAIN
41
The Travel & Turism Competitiveness
Index 2017 (136 countries)
Source: WEF, 2017
=
(2016)
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
SPAIN
1
2
3
7
The Energy Architecture Performance
Index 2017 (127 countries)
Source: WEF, 2017
1
2
3
6
Bloomberg 2017 Healthiest Country Index
(163 countries)
Source: Bloomberg, 2017
▲1
(2015)
Switzerland
Denmark
Belgium
SPAIN
1
2
3
32
IMD World Talent Ranking 2016
(61 countries)
Source: IMD, 2016
▲ 7
(2015)
Hong Kong
Singapore
New Zealand
SPAIN
1
2
3
69
2017 Index of Economic Freedom
(181 countries)
Source: Heritage Foundation, 2016
▼26
(2016)
Denmark
New Zealand
Finland
SPAIN
1
2
3
41
Corruption Perception Index 2016
(176 countries)
Source: Transparency International, 2017
▼5
(2015)
SPAIN
France
Germany
SPAIN
1
2
3
1 =
(2016)