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Quarterly report
Global and Spanish economy
Q1-2017
Círculo de Empresarios
Madrid, April 2017
2017 GDP forecast
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2017
2016 2017
Global
3.1 3.5
-1,8
-3,3
3
41.2%
58.8%
2017 GDP distribution
Advanced
Emerging
Latin America
ASEAN
(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Thailand, Vietnam.
Eurozone
Russia
USA
Sub-Saharan
Africa
1.6
2.3
-1
1.1
1.6
2.6
1.4
-0.2
1.4
5
4.9
2016
2017
1.7
Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2017
4
Global trends 2017 (I)
Inflationary
pressures
Populist
movements Emerging and advanced economies
expand in a higher synchronised way
A more synchronised and
upturn global growth
* Brexit, elections in Germany and France, Italian political instability
Expansionary fiscal policies, oil prices rebound, low interest rates
63% of GDP faces political uncertainty
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
1997=100
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Policy Uncertainty, Bloomberg, 2017
5
Global trends 2017 (II)
Higher economic stability in a turmoil political cycle with populist waves
Brexit
Financial crisis
Trump
France
Elections
German
elections
Developed World Populism
Index show historical trend
Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2017 6
A more synchronised and upturn global growth
Higher optimism of global economic
activity
Brazil, Argentina and Russia come out of recession
UE economic sentiment at highest level
Lower fears in China (currency, overcapacity...)
Political risks reduce potential economic
growth
Trump economic policy
Le Pen, Beppe Grillo...
Brexit negotiations
Diplomatic tensions
4,2
4,5
4,8
2016 2017 2018
Economic growth in
emerging economies(%)
Emerging economies are gaining momentum
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IIF, CaixaBank Research, 2017 7
Brazil and Russia come out of recession and contribute to global growth
Other positive data
✓ Strong capital flows to emerging
markets ($29,8 billion in March)
✓ MSCI increased by 10% during Q1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
China India Indonesia Brazil Mexico Russia Turkey
Emerging countries GDP growth
%
2016 2017 2018
3,8 4 3,8
7,9 7,9
9,3 9,3
9,8
3,9
8,5
10,3
6,6
5,1
6,9
7,3
7,6
6,8
7,2
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP and GDP per capita in India
%, $
Real GDP (Left axis)
GDP per capita PPP (right axis)
India: soft deceleration but brilliant economic
growth
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and World Bank, 2017 8
Forecast
➢ Exceptional deceleration due to the
elimination of the largest banknotes
➢ In the last 17 years, India’s GDP
per capita multiplied by 3
Population: 1.3 billion
Nominal GDP: 2.2 tn$
PIB pc: 6,187 $ PPP
Note: Since 1993, poverty rate has reduced by 50% to 22% of indian population
6,1
-1,8
-7,7
-11,2
-25,4
7,9
1,30,5
-13,2
-5,5
-18,8
-13,8
16,7
38,1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2014 2015 2016 Jan.-16 Feb.-16 Jan.-17 Feb.-17
China's external sector
Annualchange, % ($ terms)
Exports Imports
China: less negative surprises
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Reuters and Safe, 2017 9
Economic growth stabilized at 6.7%
Since 2000, GDP per capita multiplied by 5
A possible change on the trend of China’s external
sector
* Data affected by Chinese New Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Real GDP and GDP per capita in China
GDP per capita $, PPP (left axis)
Real GDP (right axis)
$ %
China: poverty and inequality have diminished
Sourcee: Círculo de Empresarios based on, OECD, 2017
10
Since 1980, 700 million people out of poverty
Great progress but there is a still long way to go
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Rural poverty rate in China
% rural population
44,5
45,0
45,5
46,0
46,5
47,0
47,5
48,0
48,5
49,0
49,5
Gini coefficient
Index
European Union: economic growth although
political risks
Political uncertainty
11Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD, 2017
Note: The darker the colour, higher uncertainty
Brexit negotiations
Elections in Germany
and France
Economic and political
instability in Italy
ItalyFranceGermanySpain
1.9%3.2% 1.2% 0.9%
Real GDP growth, 2016
%
(1.8) (1.4)(2.5)
2017 forecasts in brakets
(1)
63% of GDP affected by political uncertainty...
European Union: Brexit (I)
12Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bertelsmann, 2017
United
Kingdom
EU-27
After art. 50, it will take at least 2 years of negotiation
UK faces a payment between 40-60 billion € in terms of budget agreements
Spain’s economy extra contribution will be aproximately 906 million €
138
7
10
EU revenue impact
Billion €
EU revenue without UK
UK contributions that used
to flow back into the UK
EU net revenue loss from
Brexit
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4
Real GDP growth and inflation
Annual change
Real GDP Inflation
European Union: Brexit (II)
13
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bertelsmann, ONS, 2017
Pound depreciation has accelerated UK exports
Brexit
Brexit
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
Pound performance against the euro and dollar
GBP/USD GBP/EUR
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
UK merchandiseexports
Billion £
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Eurozone PMI composite
Germany Eurozone France
Eurozone: stronger confidence despite the
political election calendar
14
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission and Markit, 2017
“Poltical noise” did not affect European confidence, yet
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
Economic sentiment
Index Eurozone Germany
France
Brexit
Trump
Jan-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Ene-17 Mar-17
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission, 2017
Eurozone: growth and labor market
Since May-2009 Eurozone registered its lowest
unemployment rate
15
Contribution to GDP by components
Percentage points
EMPLEO
Private
consumption
+1
+0.4
Government
expenditure
Investment
+0.5
Private consumption continues as the key driver
of economic growth whereas investment remain
weak
22
17,7
11,6 10,1 9,9 9,5 8,6 8 7,8 7 6,1 5,2 4,1
2017 unemployment rates
% active population
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2017
Eurozone: prices
16
Increase in headline inflation but core remains stable
ECB medium term objective
Since the second half of 2016,
headline inflation pressures have
increased due to higher
commodity prices
1.7
HICP projection, 2017
%
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar.-17
Eurozone HICP evolution 2014-16
Annual change, % Headline Core
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, Bank of Spain and
Banque de France, 2017
Eurozone: France
17
Frexit would cost France 30
billion € a year aproximately
Unemployment rate projection
for 2017: 9.9%
(10% in 2016)
* Equivalent to the annual military budget
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP in France
Annual change, %
France Eurozone
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17
France and Germany 10 years debt
(%)
France Germany
26
68Risk premium
US: higher growth but risks of protectionism
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research, 2017 18
Hihg uncertainty surrounding the new US economic policy
Expansionary fiscal
policies
Inflation
pressures
Trade relations/
protectionism
Exchange and
interest rates
Main US uncertainty factors
Symptoms of economic acceleration
Full employment
Higher corporate earnings
Stronger core inflation
US: strengthening growth
+1.6% 4.7%
Economic growth Unemployment rate
Core
inflation
+2.2%
(February 2017)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BLS, BEA, Pimco, 2017 19
+98,000
(Marzo 2017)
GDP forecast: 2-2,5% pending the New US Administration
+2-2.5%
(2016) (2017)
4.5%
(2016) (March 2017)
Headline
Inflation
+2.7%
(February 2017)
Employment
creation
Wages
+2,7%
(Febrero 2017)
US: 3 increases in 2017
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Fed, 2017
20
[0,25-0,5]
[0.75-1]
16 Dic 2015- 15 Dic 2016
US interest rate
%
The Fed expects 2 more increases in 2017, due to the great improvement in the
labour market
[0.25-0.5]
[0.5-0.75]
15 Dic 2016- 16 Mar 2016
16 Mar 2016- actual
Fed dot plot March 2017
%
2017 2018
0
0,25
0,5
0,75
1
1,25
1,5
1,75
2
2,25
2,5
2,75
3
3,25
3,5
3,75
4
20
40
60
80
100
120
ene.-14
mar.-14
may.-14
jul.-14
sep.-14
nov.-14
ene.-15
mar.-15
may.-15
jul.-15
sep.-15
nov.-15
ene.-16
mar.-16
may.-16
jul.-16
sep.-16
nov.-16
ene.-17
mar.-17
WTI price evolution
Oil: stable prices at 50$
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, Bloomberg 2017 21
-75%
+95%
During the first 3 months of 2017, the OPEC compliance is
100 %
...leading to a greater investment in the US oil sector
Active oil-directed rig count reached 662 on March-17,
up from 525 at the end of 2016
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 4Q-16
US oil producers capital expenditure
Annual change
Commodities
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and Bloomberg, 2017
Gradual acceleration of commodity prices
22
The increase in commodity prices has contributed to a
recovery of emerging markets
The future Trump policies impact on today’s
commodity market
59
69
79
89
99
109
119
129
139
149
159
Commodity prices
Index 2005=100
No-energy Energy Metals
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Gold
Corn
Aluminium
Copper
Oil
Steel
Commodity prices change since Trump
won elections(%)
Currency market
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, 2017 23
Political risks and Central Banks influenced in global currencies
The euro, dollar and pound lost share of currency
market due to higher importance of the yuan
48
12
7
33
43
88
30
11
Euro
Basket of currencies, SDR
%
Yen
Yuan
Dolar
Pound
2015
2017
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Argentine
peso
Turkey
Lira
Mexican
peso
British
pound
Chinese
yuan
Euro Japanese
yen
Russian
ruble
Brazilian
real
Currency perfomance against $
1Q-2017
Financial markets
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, St Louis Fed, 2017 24
Higher valuation of stocks during Q1
IBEX-35 change 1Q-17
2015: 2016: 2017:
CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange
-8.6 +11.9+12
38,9
14,4 13,4
6,9
5,3 4,9
0,7 0,4
-2,0
-10,2
-12,3
7,9
2,5
4,6
7,3 5,9 5,4 6,4
-1,1
11,9
6,5
3,8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Stock market performance2016 vs 1Q-2017
%
2016 Q1-2017
10
14
18
22
26
30
CBOE volatility index
Brexit
Trump
Tailwinds
26
Lower macroeconomic imbalances
Employment creation
Lower private indebtedness
Monetary stimulus and better financing conditions
Exports upturn
Forecasts: the expansion is extended…
… but at a moderate pace
27
2017* 2018*2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2017
3.2%
2.6%
2.1%
Forecasts 2017: composition of growth
2017 GDP Interanual growth projection = 2.8%
• Private consumption = 2.4%
• Public consumption = 0.8%
• Gross fixed capital formation = 3,3%
Domestic demand
% annual change
2.3 ppgrowth contribution
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, April 2017 28
0.5 pp
External demand
Goods and services
% anual change
growth contribution
• Exports = 6.1%
• Imports = 5.2%
Current growth
Spain keeps the positive growth
differential with the OECD and the
Eurozone
4th consecutive quarter of positive
contribution of external demand
29Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, Eurostat and OECD, 2017
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
GDP (annual change) and contribution of
domestic and external demand (pp)
Domestic demand Spain
External demand Spain
Spain GDP
Eurozone GDP
OECD GDP
Domestic demand: households
30
Consumer spending moderates its growth
and residential investment slows down
Consumer confidence remains stable
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2017
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Spending decisions
% quarterly change
Residential investment
Private consumption
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
Feb-13
Apr13
Jun-13
Aug13
Oct-13
Dec13
Feb-14
Apr14
Jun-14
Aug14
Oct-14
Dec14
Feb-15
Apr15
Jun-15
Aug15
Oct-15
Dec15
Feb-16
Apr16
Jun-16
Aug16
Oct-16
Dec16
Feb17
Confidence indicators
Normalized indicators (difference between the indicator and its
average, divided by its standard deviation)
Retail trade Consumers
GDP by sectors
31
Tertiarisation of the economy
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016Q4
2016Q1
2015Q2
2014Q3
2013Q4
2013Q1
2012Q2
2011Q3
2010Q4
2010Q1
2009Q2
2008Q3
2007Q4
2007Q1
2006Q2
2005Q3
2004Q4
2004Q1
2003Q2
2002Q3
2001Q4
2001Q1
2000Q2
1999Q3
1998Q4
1998Q1
1997Q2
1996Q3
1995Q4
1995Q1
GDP mp by sector (% total)
Nettax
SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTUREINDUSTRY
ENERGY
PRIMARY SECTOR
4Q 2016
9,2
2,5
12,8
3,4
5,1
67
2,52,54,1
12,813,4
16,5
3,43,0
3,4 5,1
9,8
8,5
67,061,2
60,2
9,210,17,3
2016Q42007Q41995Q4
Employed by sectors
32
Tertiarisation of employment
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016Q4
2016Q1
2015Q2
2014Q3
2013Q4
2013Q1
2012Q2
2011Q3
2010Q4
2010Q1
2009Q2
2008Q3
2007Q4
2007Q1
2006Q2
2005Q3
2004Q4
2004Q1
2003Q2
2002Q3
2001Q4
2001Q1
2000Q2
1999Q3
1998Q4
1998Q1
1997Q2
1996Q3
1995Q4
1995Q1
Employed by sector (% total)
SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
ENERGY
MANUFACTUREINDUSTRY
PRIMARY SECTOR
4Q 2016
78,5
10,7
1,2
5,6
4,0 4,03,97,1
10,712,9
17,3 1,2
1,1
1,3
5,6
12,7
9,0
78,5
69,465,3
2016Q42007Q41995Q4
Labour market (I)
Unemployment rate in Spain Feb. 2017 = 18% of labour force
vs. Eurozone average = 9.5% (Eurostat)
33Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2017
8
9,5
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
UnemploymentEU28
% labour force
Labour market (II)
SEPE data - March 2017:
▪ ▼ employed = 48,559 r/ Feb.
▪ ▲ affiliates = 161,754 r/ Feb.
▪ ▲ new contracts = 1,732,773
34
Between 2013 and 2016
unemployment has been
reduced by 1 million people and
affiliates have increased by
almost 1.5 million.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, April 2017
16.393.866
17.849.055
17.910.007
4.763.680
3.702.974
3.702.317
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
16.000.000
16.500.000
17.000.000
17.500.000
18.000.000
18.500.000
19.000.000
19.500.000
20.000.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Affiliates
Evolution of the affiliation to Social Securityand registered
unemployed
Persons
Affiliates Unemployed
Unemployed
Prices
March 2017:
▪ Annual CPI decreases to 2.3% (vs.
3% in February), mainly because of
the increase in energy prices.
▪ Prices are rising above the
Eurozone average
▪ Core inflatin is around 1%.
35Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, Eurostat and Bank of Spain, 2017
2,3
0,9
1,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
General and core inflation
% annual change
CPI Spain
Core inflation Spain*
CPI Eurozone
* Without energyand non-processedfood
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Contribution to monthly CPI Services
Industrial non-energy services
Processed food
Non processed food
Financial conditions
36
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on bank of Spain, 2017
Note: Credit to households and business measured in stock terms
Credit increases
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sep13
Nov13
Jan14
Mar14
May14
Jul14
Sep14
Nov14
Jan15
Mar15
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Credit to households
% annual change
Total
House purchase
Consumption and other
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sep13
Nov13
Jan14
Mar14
May14
Jul14
Sep14
Nov14
Jan15
Mar15
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Credit to business
% annual change Total
Resident business
Others
Public debt
The fall is mainly explained by
the real GDP increase
37
Public debt was 99.4% of GDP in 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, European Commission and Ministry of Economy, 2017
58,0
54,2
51,3
47,6
45,3
42,3
38,9
35,5
39,4
52,7
60,1
69,5
85,7
95,5
100,4
99,8 99,4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Public debt
% GDP
2016 (anual change) – Trade balance
Geographical distribution (%)
ExportsImports
Source: Círculo de Empresarios, based on Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, February 2017
External sector
38
Exports ▲ 1.7% 254,530 M€
Imports ▼ 0.4% 273,284 M€
BALANCE ▼ Deficit 22.4% -18,754 M€
▼ 37,8%
energy deficit
Exports
Capital goods
Automotive industry
Food, beverages and
tobacco
Imports
Capital goods
Chemical products
Automotive industry
Top 3 sectors (% of total)
20.3
17.7
16.9
22
15.6
13.6
-94.159,9 -18.754,0
-100.000
-50.000
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Million € Exports Imports Balance
Europe
72
EU
66,3
America
10,4
Asia
9,4
Africa
6,4
Other
1,8
Exportaciones
Europe
62,6
EU
57
Asia
19,5
China
8,7
America
10,4
Africa
7,3
Other
0,2
Importaciones
goods goods
Foreign investment in Spain 2016
39Source: Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, 2017
Gross productive investment = 23.476 million €
• OECD countries → 85% (▲ 4.5%).
• EU → 50% (▼ 21%).
• Latin America → 10% (▲14%).
Main sectors of destination
(% over total investment and anual change)
• Supply of gas and electricity = 17.3% (▲10.1%)
• Real estate activities =13.7% (▲11.2%)
• Financial services = 7.8% (▲ 242%)
12 3
USA
(21.1%)
Netherlands
(9.5%)
Lux
(10.5%)
Investors (% over total investment and anual change)
In contrast with international context, with
investements between countries
decreasing
14.686
17.282
20162
23.766 23.476
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross productive investment in Spain
Million €
Foreign direct investment
Interest rates and risk premiums
40
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain and national Central Banks, 2017
The risk premium remained stable around 110 bp
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
7-Apr-15
7-May-15
7-Jun-15
7-Jul-15
7-Aug-15
7-Sep-15
7-Oct-15
7-Nov-15
7-Dec-15
7-Jan-16
7-Feb-16
7-Mar-16
7-Apr-16
7-May-16
7-Jun-16
7-Jul-16
7-Aug-16
7-Sep-16
7-Oct-16
7-Nov-16
7-Dec-16
7-Jan-17
7-Feb-17
7-Mar-17
7-Apr-17
Ten years bond yield. Spain and Germany (%)
Risk premium (bp)
Spain Germany Risk Premium
Risk
premium
Interest rate
Spain’s position in international rankings
Italy
Iceland
Switzerland
SPAIN
41
The Travel & Turism Competitiveness
Index 2017 (136 countries)
Source: WEF, 2017
=
(2016)
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
SPAIN
1
2
3
7
The Energy Architecture Performance
Index 2017 (127 countries)
Source: WEF, 2017
1
2
3
6
Bloomberg 2017 Healthiest Country Index
(163 countries)
Source: Bloomberg, 2017
▲1
(2015)
Switzerland
Denmark
Belgium
SPAIN
1
2
3
32
IMD World Talent Ranking 2016
(61 countries)
Source: IMD, 2016
▲ 7
(2015)
Hong Kong
Singapore
New Zealand
SPAIN
1
2
3
69
2017 Index of Economic Freedom
(181 countries)
Source: Heritage Foundation, 2016
▼26
(2016)
Denmark
New Zealand
Finland
SPAIN
1
2
3
41
Corruption Perception Index 2016
(176 countries)
Source: Transparency International, 2017
▼5
(2015)
SPAIN
France
Germany
SPAIN
1
2
3
1 =
(2016)
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Quarterly report. Global and Spanish economy Q1-2017- Circulo de Empresarios

  • 1. Quarterly report Global and Spanish economy Q1-2017 Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 2017
  • 2.
  • 3. 2017 GDP forecast Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2017 2016 2017 Global 3.1 3.5 -1,8 -3,3 3 41.2% 58.8% 2017 GDP distribution Advanced Emerging Latin America ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam. Eurozone Russia USA Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 2.3 -1 1.1 1.6 2.6 1.4 -0.2 1.4 5 4.9 2016 2017 1.7
  • 4. Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2017 4 Global trends 2017 (I) Inflationary pressures Populist movements Emerging and advanced economies expand in a higher synchronised way A more synchronised and upturn global growth * Brexit, elections in Germany and France, Italian political instability Expansionary fiscal policies, oil prices rebound, low interest rates 63% of GDP faces political uncertainty
  • 5. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 1997=100 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Policy Uncertainty, Bloomberg, 2017 5 Global trends 2017 (II) Higher economic stability in a turmoil political cycle with populist waves Brexit Financial crisis Trump France Elections German elections Developed World Populism Index show historical trend
  • 6. Source: Círculo de Empresarios, 2017 6 A more synchronised and upturn global growth Higher optimism of global economic activity Brazil, Argentina and Russia come out of recession UE economic sentiment at highest level Lower fears in China (currency, overcapacity...) Political risks reduce potential economic growth Trump economic policy Le Pen, Beppe Grillo... Brexit negotiations Diplomatic tensions
  • 7. 4,2 4,5 4,8 2016 2017 2018 Economic growth in emerging economies(%) Emerging economies are gaining momentum Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IIF, CaixaBank Research, 2017 7 Brazil and Russia come out of recession and contribute to global growth Other positive data ✓ Strong capital flows to emerging markets ($29,8 billion in March) ✓ MSCI increased by 10% during Q1 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 China India Indonesia Brazil Mexico Russia Turkey Emerging countries GDP growth % 2016 2017 2018
  • 8. 3,8 4 3,8 7,9 7,9 9,3 9,3 9,8 3,9 8,5 10,3 6,6 5,1 6,9 7,3 7,6 6,8 7,2 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP and GDP per capita in India %, $ Real GDP (Left axis) GDP per capita PPP (right axis) India: soft deceleration but brilliant economic growth Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and World Bank, 2017 8 Forecast ➢ Exceptional deceleration due to the elimination of the largest banknotes ➢ In the last 17 years, India’s GDP per capita multiplied by 3 Population: 1.3 billion Nominal GDP: 2.2 tn$ PIB pc: 6,187 $ PPP Note: Since 1993, poverty rate has reduced by 50% to 22% of indian population
  • 9. 6,1 -1,8 -7,7 -11,2 -25,4 7,9 1,30,5 -13,2 -5,5 -18,8 -13,8 16,7 38,1 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2014 2015 2016 Jan.-16 Feb.-16 Jan.-17 Feb.-17 China's external sector Annualchange, % ($ terms) Exports Imports China: less negative surprises Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Reuters and Safe, 2017 9 Economic growth stabilized at 6.7% Since 2000, GDP per capita multiplied by 5 A possible change on the trend of China’s external sector * Data affected by Chinese New Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP and GDP per capita in China GDP per capita $, PPP (left axis) Real GDP (right axis) $ %
  • 10. China: poverty and inequality have diminished Sourcee: Círculo de Empresarios based on, OECD, 2017 10 Since 1980, 700 million people out of poverty Great progress but there is a still long way to go 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Rural poverty rate in China % rural population 44,5 45,0 45,5 46,0 46,5 47,0 47,5 48,0 48,5 49,0 49,5 Gini coefficient Index
  • 11. European Union: economic growth although political risks Political uncertainty 11Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD, 2017 Note: The darker the colour, higher uncertainty Brexit negotiations Elections in Germany and France Economic and political instability in Italy ItalyFranceGermanySpain 1.9%3.2% 1.2% 0.9% Real GDP growth, 2016 % (1.8) (1.4)(2.5) 2017 forecasts in brakets (1) 63% of GDP affected by political uncertainty...
  • 12. European Union: Brexit (I) 12Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bertelsmann, 2017 United Kingdom EU-27 After art. 50, it will take at least 2 years of negotiation UK faces a payment between 40-60 billion € in terms of budget agreements Spain’s economy extra contribution will be aproximately 906 million € 138 7 10 EU revenue impact Billion € EU revenue without UK UK contributions that used to flow back into the UK EU net revenue loss from Brexit
  • 13. 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 Real GDP growth and inflation Annual change Real GDP Inflation European Union: Brexit (II) 13 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bertelsmann, ONS, 2017 Pound depreciation has accelerated UK exports Brexit Brexit 1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 Pound performance against the euro and dollar GBP/USD GBP/EUR 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 UK merchandiseexports Billion £
  • 14. 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Eurozone PMI composite Germany Eurozone France Eurozone: stronger confidence despite the political election calendar 14 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission and Markit, 2017 “Poltical noise” did not affect European confidence, yet 99 101 103 105 107 109 111 Economic sentiment Index Eurozone Germany France Brexit Trump Jan-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Ene-17 Mar-17
  • 15. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on European Commission, 2017 Eurozone: growth and labor market Since May-2009 Eurozone registered its lowest unemployment rate 15 Contribution to GDP by components Percentage points EMPLEO Private consumption +1 +0.4 Government expenditure Investment +0.5 Private consumption continues as the key driver of economic growth whereas investment remain weak 22 17,7 11,6 10,1 9,9 9,5 8,6 8 7,8 7 6,1 5,2 4,1 2017 unemployment rates % active population
  • 16. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2017 Eurozone: prices 16 Increase in headline inflation but core remains stable ECB medium term objective Since the second half of 2016, headline inflation pressures have increased due to higher commodity prices 1.7 HICP projection, 2017 % -1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar.-17 Eurozone HICP evolution 2014-16 Annual change, % Headline Core
  • 17. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, Bank of Spain and Banque de France, 2017 Eurozone: France 17 Frexit would cost France 30 billion € a year aproximately Unemployment rate projection for 2017: 9.9% (10% in 2016) * Equivalent to the annual military budget -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real GDP in France Annual change, % France Eurozone -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 France and Germany 10 years debt (%) France Germany 26 68Risk premium
  • 18. US: higher growth but risks of protectionism Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research, 2017 18 Hihg uncertainty surrounding the new US economic policy Expansionary fiscal policies Inflation pressures Trade relations/ protectionism Exchange and interest rates Main US uncertainty factors Symptoms of economic acceleration Full employment Higher corporate earnings Stronger core inflation
  • 19. US: strengthening growth +1.6% 4.7% Economic growth Unemployment rate Core inflation +2.2% (February 2017) Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BLS, BEA, Pimco, 2017 19 +98,000 (Marzo 2017) GDP forecast: 2-2,5% pending the New US Administration +2-2.5% (2016) (2017) 4.5% (2016) (March 2017) Headline Inflation +2.7% (February 2017) Employment creation Wages +2,7% (Febrero 2017)
  • 20. US: 3 increases in 2017 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Fed, 2017 20 [0,25-0,5] [0.75-1] 16 Dic 2015- 15 Dic 2016 US interest rate % The Fed expects 2 more increases in 2017, due to the great improvement in the labour market [0.25-0.5] [0.5-0.75] 15 Dic 2016- 16 Mar 2016 16 Mar 2016- actual Fed dot plot March 2017 % 2017 2018 0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1 1,25 1,5 1,75 2 2,25 2,5 2,75 3 3,25 3,5 3,75 4
  • 21. 20 40 60 80 100 120 ene.-14 mar.-14 may.-14 jul.-14 sep.-14 nov.-14 ene.-15 mar.-15 may.-15 jul.-15 sep.-15 nov.-15 ene.-16 mar.-16 may.-16 jul.-16 sep.-16 nov.-16 ene.-17 mar.-17 WTI price evolution Oil: stable prices at 50$ Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, Bloomberg 2017 21 -75% +95% During the first 3 months of 2017, the OPEC compliance is 100 % ...leading to a greater investment in the US oil sector Active oil-directed rig count reached 662 on March-17, up from 525 at the end of 2016 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 4Q-16 US oil producers capital expenditure Annual change
  • 22. Commodities Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and Bloomberg, 2017 Gradual acceleration of commodity prices 22 The increase in commodity prices has contributed to a recovery of emerging markets The future Trump policies impact on today’s commodity market 59 69 79 89 99 109 119 129 139 149 159 Commodity prices Index 2005=100 No-energy Energy Metals -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Gold Corn Aluminium Copper Oil Steel Commodity prices change since Trump won elections(%)
  • 23. Currency market Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, 2017 23 Political risks and Central Banks influenced in global currencies The euro, dollar and pound lost share of currency market due to higher importance of the yuan 48 12 7 33 43 88 30 11 Euro Basket of currencies, SDR % Yen Yuan Dolar Pound 2015 2017 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Argentine peso Turkey Lira Mexican peso British pound Chinese yuan Euro Japanese yen Russian ruble Brazilian real Currency perfomance against $ 1Q-2017
  • 24. Financial markets Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, St Louis Fed, 2017 24 Higher valuation of stocks during Q1 IBEX-35 change 1Q-17 2015: 2016: 2017: CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange -8.6 +11.9+12 38,9 14,4 13,4 6,9 5,3 4,9 0,7 0,4 -2,0 -10,2 -12,3 7,9 2,5 4,6 7,3 5,9 5,4 6,4 -1,1 11,9 6,5 3,8 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Stock market performance2016 vs 1Q-2017 % 2016 Q1-2017 10 14 18 22 26 30 CBOE volatility index Brexit Trump
  • 25.
  • 26. Tailwinds 26 Lower macroeconomic imbalances Employment creation Lower private indebtedness Monetary stimulus and better financing conditions Exports upturn
  • 27. Forecasts: the expansion is extended… … but at a moderate pace 27 2017* 2018*2016 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2017 3.2% 2.6% 2.1%
  • 28. Forecasts 2017: composition of growth 2017 GDP Interanual growth projection = 2.8% • Private consumption = 2.4% • Public consumption = 0.8% • Gross fixed capital formation = 3,3% Domestic demand % annual change 2.3 ppgrowth contribution Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, April 2017 28 0.5 pp External demand Goods and services % anual change growth contribution • Exports = 6.1% • Imports = 5.2%
  • 29. Current growth Spain keeps the positive growth differential with the OECD and the Eurozone 4th consecutive quarter of positive contribution of external demand 29Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, Eurostat and OECD, 2017 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 GDP (annual change) and contribution of domestic and external demand (pp) Domestic demand Spain External demand Spain Spain GDP Eurozone GDP OECD GDP
  • 30. Domestic demand: households 30 Consumer spending moderates its growth and residential investment slows down Consumer confidence remains stable Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2017 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Spending decisions % quarterly change Residential investment Private consumption -2,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 Feb-13 Apr13 Jun-13 Aug13 Oct-13 Dec13 Feb-14 Apr14 Jun-14 Aug14 Oct-14 Dec14 Feb-15 Apr15 Jun-15 Aug15 Oct-15 Dec15 Feb-16 Apr16 Jun-16 Aug16 Oct-16 Dec16 Feb17 Confidence indicators Normalized indicators (difference between the indicator and its average, divided by its standard deviation) Retail trade Consumers
  • 31. GDP by sectors 31 Tertiarisation of the economy Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2016Q4 2016Q1 2015Q2 2014Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2012Q2 2011Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2009Q2 2008Q3 2007Q4 2007Q1 2006Q2 2005Q3 2004Q4 2004Q1 2003Q2 2002Q3 2001Q4 2001Q1 2000Q2 1999Q3 1998Q4 1998Q1 1997Q2 1996Q3 1995Q4 1995Q1 GDP mp by sector (% total) Nettax SERVICES CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTUREINDUSTRY ENERGY PRIMARY SECTOR 4Q 2016 9,2 2,5 12,8 3,4 5,1 67 2,52,54,1 12,813,4 16,5 3,43,0 3,4 5,1 9,8 8,5 67,061,2 60,2 9,210,17,3 2016Q42007Q41995Q4
  • 32. Employed by sectors 32 Tertiarisation of employment Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2016Q4 2016Q1 2015Q2 2014Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2012Q2 2011Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2009Q2 2008Q3 2007Q4 2007Q1 2006Q2 2005Q3 2004Q4 2004Q1 2003Q2 2002Q3 2001Q4 2001Q1 2000Q2 1999Q3 1998Q4 1998Q1 1997Q2 1996Q3 1995Q4 1995Q1 Employed by sector (% total) SERVICES CONSTRUCTION ENERGY MANUFACTUREINDUSTRY PRIMARY SECTOR 4Q 2016 78,5 10,7 1,2 5,6 4,0 4,03,97,1 10,712,9 17,3 1,2 1,1 1,3 5,6 12,7 9,0 78,5 69,465,3 2016Q42007Q41995Q4
  • 33. Labour market (I) Unemployment rate in Spain Feb. 2017 = 18% of labour force vs. Eurozone average = 9.5% (Eurostat) 33Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2017 8 9,5 18 0 5 10 15 20 25 UnemploymentEU28 % labour force
  • 34. Labour market (II) SEPE data - March 2017: ▪ ▼ employed = 48,559 r/ Feb. ▪ ▲ affiliates = 161,754 r/ Feb. ▪ ▲ new contracts = 1,732,773 34 Between 2013 and 2016 unemployment has been reduced by 1 million people and affiliates have increased by almost 1.5 million. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Security, April 2017 16.393.866 17.849.055 17.910.007 4.763.680 3.702.974 3.702.317 0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000 16.000.000 16.500.000 17.000.000 17.500.000 18.000.000 18.500.000 19.000.000 19.500.000 20.000.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Affiliates Evolution of the affiliation to Social Securityand registered unemployed Persons Affiliates Unemployed Unemployed
  • 35. Prices March 2017: ▪ Annual CPI decreases to 2.3% (vs. 3% in February), mainly because of the increase in energy prices. ▪ Prices are rising above the Eurozone average ▪ Core inflatin is around 1%. 35Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, Eurostat and Bank of Spain, 2017 2,3 0,9 1,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 General and core inflation % annual change CPI Spain Core inflation Spain* CPI Eurozone * Without energyand non-processedfood -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Contribution to monthly CPI Services Industrial non-energy services Processed food Non processed food
  • 36. Financial conditions 36 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on bank of Spain, 2017 Note: Credit to households and business measured in stock terms Credit increases -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Jan15 Mar15 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Jan17 Credit to households % annual change Total House purchase Consumption and other -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Jan15 Mar15 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Jan17 Credit to business % annual change Total Resident business Others
  • 37. Public debt The fall is mainly explained by the real GDP increase 37 Public debt was 99.4% of GDP in 2016 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, European Commission and Ministry of Economy, 2017 58,0 54,2 51,3 47,6 45,3 42,3 38,9 35,5 39,4 52,7 60,1 69,5 85,7 95,5 100,4 99,8 99,4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Public debt % GDP
  • 38. 2016 (anual change) – Trade balance Geographical distribution (%) ExportsImports Source: Círculo de Empresarios, based on Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, February 2017 External sector 38 Exports ▲ 1.7% 254,530 M€ Imports ▼ 0.4% 273,284 M€ BALANCE ▼ Deficit 22.4% -18,754 M€ ▼ 37,8% energy deficit Exports Capital goods Automotive industry Food, beverages and tobacco Imports Capital goods Chemical products Automotive industry Top 3 sectors (% of total) 20.3 17.7 16.9 22 15.6 13.6 -94.159,9 -18.754,0 -100.000 -50.000 0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Million € Exports Imports Balance Europe 72 EU 66,3 America 10,4 Asia 9,4 Africa 6,4 Other 1,8 Exportaciones Europe 62,6 EU 57 Asia 19,5 China 8,7 America 10,4 Africa 7,3 Other 0,2 Importaciones goods goods
  • 39. Foreign investment in Spain 2016 39Source: Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, 2017 Gross productive investment = 23.476 million € • OECD countries → 85% (▲ 4.5%). • EU → 50% (▼ 21%). • Latin America → 10% (▲14%). Main sectors of destination (% over total investment and anual change) • Supply of gas and electricity = 17.3% (▲10.1%) • Real estate activities =13.7% (▲11.2%) • Financial services = 7.8% (▲ 242%) 12 3 USA (21.1%) Netherlands (9.5%) Lux (10.5%) Investors (% over total investment and anual change) In contrast with international context, with investements between countries decreasing 14.686 17.282 20162 23.766 23.476 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gross productive investment in Spain Million € Foreign direct investment
  • 40. Interest rates and risk premiums 40 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain and national Central Banks, 2017 The risk premium remained stable around 110 bp 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 7-Apr-15 7-May-15 7-Jun-15 7-Jul-15 7-Aug-15 7-Sep-15 7-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 7-Dec-15 7-Jan-16 7-Feb-16 7-Mar-16 7-Apr-16 7-May-16 7-Jun-16 7-Jul-16 7-Aug-16 7-Sep-16 7-Oct-16 7-Nov-16 7-Dec-16 7-Jan-17 7-Feb-17 7-Mar-17 7-Apr-17 Ten years bond yield. Spain and Germany (%) Risk premium (bp) Spain Germany Risk Premium Risk premium Interest rate
  • 41. Spain’s position in international rankings Italy Iceland Switzerland SPAIN 41 The Travel & Turism Competitiveness Index 2017 (136 countries) Source: WEF, 2017 = (2016) Switzerland Norway Sweden SPAIN 1 2 3 7 The Energy Architecture Performance Index 2017 (127 countries) Source: WEF, 2017 1 2 3 6 Bloomberg 2017 Healthiest Country Index (163 countries) Source: Bloomberg, 2017 ▲1 (2015) Switzerland Denmark Belgium SPAIN 1 2 3 32 IMD World Talent Ranking 2016 (61 countries) Source: IMD, 2016 ▲ 7 (2015) Hong Kong Singapore New Zealand SPAIN 1 2 3 69 2017 Index of Economic Freedom (181 countries) Source: Heritage Foundation, 2016 ▼26 (2016) Denmark New Zealand Finland SPAIN 1 2 3 41 Corruption Perception Index 2016 (176 countries) Source: Transparency International, 2017 ▼5 (2015) SPAIN France Germany SPAIN 1 2 3 1 = (2016)