Prezentācija izmantota lekcijā Biznesa augstskola Turība 2016. gada 20. oktobrī. Pasaules ekonomikas un lielāko pasaules valstu ekonomiku attīstības prognozes, balstoties uz jaunāko Starptautiskā Valūtas fonda veikto analīzi. Prezentācijā apskatīti aktuālie ekonomikas jautājumi un nozīmīgākie attīstību kavējošie riski.

1. 1
Recent trends in the global economy
and the near term outlook
Ieva Skrīvere
Chief Economist
International Relations and Communication Department
Bank of Latvia
20.10.2016

2. Global GDP growth is projected to increase
from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.4% in 2017
Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE); Consensus Economics; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff estimates

3. Global growth weakened slightly in 2016,
mostly due to softer activity in advanced economies
Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; Markit Economics; and IMF staff estimates

4. Global trade contracted in second half of 2016,
while industrial production remained subdued
Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; Markit Economics; and IMF staff estimates

5. Trade growth in China has fallen significantly
compared to GDP growth
China GDP and trade growth (Percentage change, year over year)
Source: IMF staff calculations

6. China's large footprint in commodity markets
has an effect on commodity prices and global trade
Source: Bloomberg L.P., Kolerus, N'Diaye, Saborowski 2016, World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and IMF staff calculations

7. Oil prices have rebounded
from the 10-year low recorded in January 2016
Sources: IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; International Energy Agency (IEA); OECD; and IMF staff estimates
APSP = average petroleum spot price

8. Headline inflation inched up in advanced economies
as drag from lower commodity prices faded
Sources: Consensus Economics; Haver Analytics; IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; and IMF staff estimates

9. However, low inflation remains a widespread issue
Share of Countries with Low Inflation (Percent)
Source: Consensus Economics; and IMF staff calculations

10. Markets expect advanced economy central banks
to maintain low rates for longer
Sources: Bank of Spain; Bloomberg L.P.; Haver Analytics; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff calculations

11. Credit to nonfinancial firms and households continues
to grow, and household net worth has improved
Sources: Bank of England; Bank of Spain; Bloomberg L.P.; European Central Bank (ECB); Haver Analytics;
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and IMF staff calculations

12. Fiscal balance is projected to improve slowly,
while public debt levels reman very high
Source: IMF staff estimates

13. Gravity model of trade
The smaller the distance
between two objects and the
bigger the mass of one (or
both) objects, the bigger the
gravity between the two
objects
The smaller the distance
between two countries and the
bigger the GDP of one (or both)
countries, the bigger the "trade
gravity" between the two
countries
Source: an advertisement for movie "Gravity"

14. Europe: Economic developments
Growth is low, and future prospects
do not look too encouraging
Source: Eurostat, IMF
* - IMF forecasts
1.6
2.3
1.9
1.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP growth, %
Unemployment remains high,
in some countries above 20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Individual EU-28 countries EU-28 average

15. Europe: Fiscal situation
Many countries spend more than
they earn. Only 4 countries had a
balanced budget in 2015
Source: Eurostat, European Commission
Government debt levels are very
high, average in Europe:
85.2% of GDP
Only 11 out of 28 countries
comply with Maastricht criteria
(government debt <60% of GDP,
budget deficit <3% of GDP)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
-8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
Generalgovernmentdebt,%ofGDP
General government budget balance, % of GDP

16. Europe: Political challenges
Source: Business Insider, Wall Street Journal, NBC News
2015/16: 2017: and possibly
ELECTIONS

17. Economic center of gravity:
On both sides of the Atlantic
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base
GDP data in USD bn
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1995 2005 2015
USA
EU-28

18. USA: Economic developments
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base, U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics
* - IMF forecasts
2.4
2.6
1.6
2.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP growth, %
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Unemployment rate, %
Growth is stable, but lower than forecasted
due to low oil price and drop in investment
Unemployment is very low:
5.3% in 2015, 4.9% in August 2016

19. USA: Political challenges
Source: NBC News

20. USA – still the largest economy in the world;
but China is rising
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base, Bank of Latvia calculations
* - IMF forecasts
49.04% 49.03% 50.13% 50.25%
20.26% 19.46% 15.81% 14.62%
24.70% 21.66%
16.92% 15.30%
5.90% 9.74%
17.08% 19.76%
1995 2005 2015 2021*
China
EU-28
USA
Other
41.78%
37.06% 38.29% 37.02%
24.91%
27.73% 24.53% 23.84%
30.92% 30.36%
22.17%
20.54%
2.39% 4.85%
15.01% 18.60%
1995 2005 2015 2021*
World GDP (PPP) World GDP (USD)

21. Economic center of gravity:
Now on both sides of the Pacific
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base
GDP data in USD bn
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1995 2005 2015
USA
China

22. China: 1/3 of world GDP growth
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook data base, Bank of Latvia calculations
* - IMF forecasts
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
China
EU-28
USA
Other
World

23. China: A leader in world trade
Source: World Trade Organization
Leading exporters and importers in world
merchandise trade, 2015, USD bn
Leading exporters and importers in world
services trade, 2015, USD bn
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Italy
South Korea
Hong Kong
The Netherlands
France
United Kingdom
Japan
Germany
USA
China
Export Import
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
India
Ireland
Singapore
Japan
The Netherlands
France
Germany
United Kingdom
China
USA
Export Import

24. China: Rising in importance also in financial sector
Source: Bloomberg, bank home pages, IMF
Bank assets in USD tn
0 1 2 3 4
Deutsche Bank
Bank of America
BNP Paribas
JPMorgan Chase & Co
HSBC Holdings
Bank of China
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
Agricultural Bank of China
China Construction Bank Corp
Industrial & Commercial Bank of…
China
Japan
EU
USA
Top 3 banks in China at the same time are
Top 3 banks in the world
Chinese bond market – 3rd biggest in the world.
Over the past 10 years increased 6 times

25. 25
Thank you for your attention!
Q&A