How I stopped worrying about the future, and got busy inventing it
1. HOW I STOPPED WORRYING ABOUT
THE FUTURE
AND INSTEAD GOT BUSY
INVENTING IT @
Deutsch LA
2. AHOY!
Since so much of my talk was, well, me talking, I’ve included sticky notes
like this throughout my presentation to add the details the deck is
missing.
Thanks for coming and thanks for reading.
Find me online at:
WHATCONSUMESME.COM
TWITTER.COM/BUD_CADDELL
2
18. • FIND SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW.
• TELL THEM ABOUT YOUR
FAVORITE TV SHOW.
• LISTEN TO THEIRS.
18
19. • FIND SOMEONE YOU DON’T KNOW.
• TALK ABOUT THE COLOR OF THE SKY.
• NO, REALLY.
19
20. ASY MMETRY
Conversations are an exchange of
ideas. That exchange works better
when the information being passed
along is asymmetrical - where I
know one piece of the puzzle and you
know another. New ideas inherently
make you more interesting.
20
22. We engineered this video for asymmetry. We
removed enough details in the costumes so
that there would people who knew which
dogs were characters and people who didn’t
know. Asymmetry also equals repeat views.
22
33. OR build a real-life
LIKE sign that lights
up for every
Facebook Like we get
on our website.
33
34. Or take a crazy notion
of re-inventing our
industry and turn it
into a brand new
service offering
34
35. On that note,
let’s talk about
where our jobs
are heading.
TODAY & TOMORROW
35
36. THE PACE OF CHANGE IS MIND BOGGLING
YE A RS TO R EA CH 50% H OU SE HOLD ADO PT IO N, S O URCE: ARGO NNE N AT IO NA L L A B O R A TO R Y
M O BI L E I NT ER NET C OMPUT ER COL OR TV T E LE P HO NE
YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 Y R 40 Y R 50 Y R 60 Y R 70
36
37. THE TRADITIONAL AD MODEL
W HE N W E H A D TIM E TO DRIN K SCO TCH AT 11 AM
PRINT TV RADIO
37
38. THE MICROSITE MODEL, CIRCA 2005-8
W HE N W E WE R E TH E KIN GS OF FLA SHT URBAT IO N
PRINT
EMAIL
TV
BANNERS MICRO-SITE
RADIO
SEARCH
NON-TRAD
38
39. THE 2011 MARKETING ECOSYSTEM
W HE N W E A LL BE CA M E SOCIA L ME DIA DO UCHEBAGS
SOCIAL RADIO
EMAIL
CORPORATE
BANNERS DOT-COM TV
MICRO-SITE
RETAIL
DIGITAL
OOH MOBILE
PRINT
SEARCH
we help our clients rethink NON-TRAD EVENTS
the marketing ecosystem.
starting with a
realization that these are
more than boxes that need
filling. 39
40. But let’s not forget what the world
looks like to a consumer these days.
An abundance of choice means a
scarcity of attention. Also, what Rob
Walker calls the “pretty good
problem” - it’s getting harder and
harder for products to breakthrough.
40
41. 80
%
80% of categories are
seen as homogenous by
consumers.
41
46. 5
the average lifespan of a
fortune 500 company
today
something has to be done
about this.
/
when a crisis is this
drastic, only one thing can
be done!
46
48. THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS
PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA
SOCIAL
BEHAVIOR
PROFITS ME PAID MEDIA
GRAPH
PRODUCTS OWNED MEDIA
& SERVICES INTERESTS
48
49. THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS
PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA
SOCIAL
BEHAVIOR
PROFITS ME PAID MEDIA
GRAPH
PRODUCTS OWNED MEDIA
& SERVICES INTERESTS
THIS PROBABLY LOOKS
INSANELY COMPLEX.
BECAUSE IT IS. BUT LET’S 49
TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN ..
50. THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS
FIRST.
PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA
Instead of diving head first into
how you’ll fill SOCIAL buckets, we
media
should concentrate on telling a
BEHAVIOR
coherent brand story across
PROFITS everything we ME starting
do, PAID MEDIA
with our purpose (beyond
profits), and how our products
and our revenue support that
purpose. Then,GRAPHshould use
we
PRODUCTS
& SERVICES media to amplify that message.
INTERESTS OWNED MEDIA
50
51. THE 2012 MEANING ECOSYSTEM
EV E RY T HI NG WE D O M U ST IGN IT E OR EMPO WER NET WO RKS O F CO N S UM E R S, CO NNE CTE D B Y SHA R E D INTE R E STS
And as we plan to reach
consumers, we need to be
PURPOSE SHARED EARNED MEDIA
paying more attention than SOCIAL
ever to the shared interests
which bind our consumers to BEHAVIOR
their friends. That’s how we’ll
engineer ourPROFITS to have
message ME PAID MEDIA
the best chance at being
spread. We also have to start
obser ving people’s behaviors GRAPH
more closely, and not in
PRODUCTS
aggregate, & SERVICES get up
we have to INTERESTS OWNED MEDIA
close and truly personal.
51
52. Doing all of these
things better will
increase our odds for
success. But....
52
53. 90
%
90% of strategic plans are
never realized.
i like to think that means
90% of time spent in
powerpoint is
meaningless.
53
54. 70
%
70% of change plans fail,
our organizations are
often too silo’d and
fragmented to turn on a
dime.
54
56. don’t get me wrong, there
is still a place for strategy
in this world. a huge place.
especially when we have
the time and attention to
methodically plan.
56
57. but even the most simple
plans can and often go
awry when they meet the
real world. and it reminds
me of something like that.
this is also the example i
like to use when clients
ask for a viral video.
Search youtube
for “plinko price
is right”
57
58. in reaction to that, you
see this meme exploding in
culture right now.
it sounds AWESOME
DOESN’T IT?!
58
60. MIDDLE
WE’LL DO PARTS OF THIS
EXERCISE TOGETHER.
EXERCISE!
DON’T WORRY, THIS ONE
DOESN’T REQUIRE MUCH
EMPATHY.
60
61. YOUR BRIEF:
WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS
DO TO ENSURE AN EVENT HAS
AN IMPACT LONG AFTER THE
DAY IS OVER?
61
62. This is our invention filter,
a process we use to
generate better ideas.
Serves User Needs
Nudges Ignites
the Brand Culture
62
63. WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR
EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT?
S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ...
Serves User Needs
What are attendees trying to
accomplish by coming?
What are the barriers?
What’s broken?
What technologies can help?
What solutions are being
tried in other industries or
countries to solve similar
problems?
63
64. WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR
EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT?
S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ...
Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand
What are attendees trying to How does the business work?
accomplish by coming?
What forces keep them from
What are the barriers? growing and what forces
keep them from shrinking?
What’s broken?
What factors are most
What technologies can help? important to attendees when
choosing an event?
What solutions are being
tried in other industries or Where is the industry
countries to solve similar heading, who is doing the
problems? pushing, and is the brand
leading or following?
64
65. WHAT CAN EVENT ORGANIZERS DO TO ENSURE THEIR
EVENT HAS A LONG-TERM IMPACT?
S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ...
Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand Ignites Culture
What are attendees trying to How does the business work? What types of content do
accomplish by coming? attendees of these events
What forces keep them from share with each other?
What are the barriers? growing and what forces
keep them from shrinking? What are common
What’s broken? conventions being used by
What factors are most competitors in their
What technologies can help? important to attendees when marketing?
choosing an event?
What solutions are being What are the commonly held
tried in other industries or Where is the industry beliefs and behaviors of your
countries to solve similar heading, who is doing the customers?
problems? pushing, and is the brand
leading or following? Are they in contradiction?
65
94. For ad folk, we have to
stop chasing the white
rabbit of the big idea into
the rabbit hole of the big
execution. We should be
cleverly slicing budgets
into many opportunities
for success.
A NETWORK OF
VS ONE BIG BET
SMALL BETS
94
95. chris rock doesn’t test
jokes during his HBO
special. He spends 6
months popping into tiny
clubs with a notebook and
pen, bombing continuously.
95
96. still the gold standard.
maybe doing all of these
steps well.
we suck at this one. maybe
because it requires brands
to either build or co-opt
safe spaces.
96
98. LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
(THE CAR INSURANCE MODEL)
98
99. LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L
PAYOUTS
RISKS PREMIUMS
This is called a causal loop
diagram. There is a lot of
content online about how to
get good at mapping systems. CUSTOMERS
These here are called ‘s tocks,’
they’re the pools of stuff
that insurance companies
accrue.
99
100. LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L
S
PAYOUTS
S
RISKS PREMIUMS
O
O
We map these stocks with the flows CUSTOMERS
which connect them. ‘S’ means same,
as in they move in the same direction,
‘O’ means opposite. So, for example, if
an insurance company has to payout
more money, it’s likely that they will
also have to raise their premiums,
which will then in turn cause them to
lose customers to their competitors.
100
101. LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L
S
PAYOUTS
S
RISKS PREMIUMS
O
O
Shitty insurance CUSTOMERS
companies focus on
lowering payouts through
less than honest tactics.
101
102. LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L
S
PAYOUTS
S
RISKS PREMIUMS
O
O
CUSTOMERS
Instead, let’s focus on
these t wo stocks.
102
103. LET’S HACK A BUSINESS MODEL!
T HE C AR I NS U RA NCE BU SIN E SS MODE L
S
PAYOUTS
S
LOWER THE
RISKS OF
RISKS PREMIUMS
CURRENT
CUSTOMERS
O
O
CUSTOMERS
ATTRACT SAFER
DRIVERS
103
105. ATTRACT LESS RISKY CUSTOMERS AND HELP EVERYONE
REDUCE THEIR RISKS WHILE DRIVING
S T E P O NE , A NS WE R TH E SE Q U ES T IO NS ...
Serves User Needs Nudges the Brand Ignites Culture
What are drivers trying to How does the business work? What kind of content are
accomplish while driving? people already sharing
What forces keep them from around insurance?
What are the barriers? growing and what forces
keep them from shrinking? What are common
What’s broken? conventions being used by
What factors are most competitors in their
What technologies can help? important to drivers when marketing?
choosing an insurance?
What solutions are being What are the commonly held
tried in other industries or Where is the industry beliefs and behaviors of your
countries to solve similar heading, who is doing the customers?
problems? pushing, and is the brand
leading or following? Are they in contradiction?
105