Carl Kulo of Bowker Market Research presents at BISG's Making Information Pay for Higher Ed Publishing conference, February 7, 2013.

1. Now welcoming
Carl Kulo
US Director,
Bowker Market Research
“The State of Higher Ed Publishing: By the Numbers”
© 2013, the Book Industry Study Group, Inc. 0

2. Overview of College
Textbook Market
Academic Year 2012

3. Insert
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Carl Kulo
BISG Making Information Pay Higher Ed Event
February 7, 2013
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4. PubTrack Higher Ed: What is it?
• The “Go-To” source for data about U.S. College
Course material “sell through” and “adoption”.
•Used by over 100 clients
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5. Where does the data come
from?
Course material P-O-S Adoption Demand
Tracks new and
Course Book Pre-order
used Point-of- Data collected in Use and wholesaler
Sample from over 3630 Instructor data
Sale Data on
represents ~60% bookstores, & data from over
Course Materials (FTE) of the US online e-tailers collected from 4200 stores
from 4-yr, 2-yr, Higher Ed market tied to over 2,500 college and
and For-Profit schools registrars
schools e-tailers
office
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6. PubTrack HE Data Sources:
. o B&N
o Follett
Campus o Nebraska Books
Book o ~ 1,500 Independent campus stores
Stores
o Discipline level o B&NCollege.com
o ISBN tagging
Online oMBS Direct
Publisher o eCampus.com
o Returns Book
Files
o Sell-out Stores
PubTrack
Higher
Education
o Professor Profiles Course &
o Course codes Wholesalers
Department
o Carnegie Codes Demand Data o MBS
Information o Follett Demand
For-Profit
o Apollo Group-Axia College Institutions
o Apollo Group-Univ. of Phoenix (all)
o Laureate Education
o Corinthian College, Inc.
o ITT
o DeVry
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7. What it is and What it isn’t….
• Primarily data comes through college bookstores
(including in-store and online)
• Tracks data that can be tied to a school
• Data from Amazon and other e-tailers (can’t be tied to
schools) and are not included
• Data on other alternate sources (e.g., student swaps,
etc) not included
• BISG Student Survey will give a holistic view of what
students are doing regarding course material
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8. 7

9. The “Big Picture”
. What can PubTrack Higher Ed tell us about
what American college students are buying
for their courses?

10. The College Textbook market levels off
Total Sales in Billions
$9.0
$8.0 $7.7 $7.4 $7.4
$7.3
$7.0 $6.3 $6.3
$6.0
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$-
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
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11. New Textbook Prices Rising, but Used is
holding steady!
$90.00
$82.17
$80.00
$77.25
$73.85
$70.00 $69.95
$64.31
$61.71
$60.00 $60.47 $60.68
$58.89
$57.27 $56.98
$50.00 $50.74 Avg. New Price
$47.50
$46.34 Avg. Used Price
$40.00
$30.00
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
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12. Two Thirds of Units Sold are New Units – little
change over time
100%
90%
80%
70% 67% 66% 64% 66% 67% 67% 68%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 34% 34% 36% 35% 33% 33% 32%
10%
0%
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
Used Units New Units
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13. Over ¾ of Textbook Dollars Sold are New
Units
100%
90%
80%
70%
71% 72% 70% 70% 70% 72% 74%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
29% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 26%
10%
0%
AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12
Used $ New $
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14. Which Textbooks are Keepers?
Top 10 Disciplines with Lowest Used Book Rates
Nursing 22%
Mathematics 22%
Business Education/Vo-Tech 22%
Engineering 21%
Biological Sciences 20%
Computers & Information Systems 18%
Foreign Languages and Literature 17%
Chemistry 17%
Accounting 17%
ESL 11%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
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15. And which Texts are not?
Top Disciplines with Highest Used Book Rates
Anthropology 48%
History 47%
Sociology 46%
Theater 45%
Philosophy 44%
Classics 44%
Parks & Recreation 44%
Art 44%
Criminal Justice 43%
40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%
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16. ‘The Basics’
Top 10 Disciplines in Total Dollar Sales (est. in millions)
• .
Mathematics $875
English $628
Biological Sciences $514
Psychology $455
Computers & Information
$303
Systems
Accounting $266
Foreign Languages and
$262
Literature
Chemistry $260
Education $256
Engineering $228
$- $500 $1,000
Millions
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17. Finance, Engineering. & C.S. are growing again!
Top 10 Growing Disciplines (in $)
AY 2011 to AY 2012
Finance 13.3%
Engineering 13.3%
Computer Science 12.1%
Animal Science 12.0%
Social Work 11.5%
Quantitative Business 9.2%
Legal Studies 7.8%
Chemistry 6.9%
Physics 6.5%
Geography 6.0%
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18. Where the jobs ‘aren’t’-
Top 10 Declining Disciplines
AY 2010 to AY 2011
English -9.16%
Classics -9.07%
Dance -8.61%
History -7.78%
Art -7.66%
Philosophy -7.50%
Political Science -7.35%
Interdisciplinary Studies -6.23%
Sociology -5.30%
Education -3.76%
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19. 101 - Psych & Spanish
Top 10 Courses in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
English Composition $170
Intro Psychology $169
Elementary Spanish $130
CIS: MS Office Suites $125
Intro General Chemistry $104
Non-Majors Biology $94
Human Anatomy and Physiology $89
Majors Biology $81
Mathematics: Softw are $79
$- $100 $200
Millions
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20. Top 10 Textbooks (ISBN’s) in Total Dollar Sales (millions)
The Art of Public Speaking (PK w /Connect Lucas) 9.6
Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association 9.0
CINS 101: Computer Concepts (PK w /MyItLab) 8.9
Microsoft Office 2010: Introductory 8.6
Campbell Biology 8.4
Campbell Biology (PK w /MasteringBiology) 8.2
Human Anatomy and Physiology 6.7
A Writer's Reference 6.6
Exploring Psychology 6.2
Intermediate Accounting 6.2
$- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12
Millions
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21. But it’s not just about the ISBN–
Consider total size of these franchises….
Total Sales
(est.)
Marieb $ 44 million
Campbell Biology $ 5 million
Lucas $ 12 million
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Formats of Course
Materials: Focus on Digital
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23. Sales by Format
100%
13%
90% 17%
Custom
80% 12%
19%
70%
Digital Textbook (including
ebook pkg/bundles/custom)
60%
50%
Package/Bundle (primary
40% 67% print)
58%
30%
Print
20%
10%
Spring/Summer 2011 7% 5% Supplements
0%
2012 units 2012 $
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24. Pricing
•Overall average textbook price: $65
(New & Used – unchanged from 2011)
•Overall average digital textbook price: $61
(up from $56 in 2011)
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25. Wide Array of ‘e’
Top 5 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates
AY 2012 Units
Foreign Languages
and Literature 6.15%
Computers &
Information Systems 5.28%
Marketing 2.10%
Quantitative Business 1.87%
Film Studies 1.53%
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26. Rental growth strong for used:
Used Rental
New Rental New Rental Used Rental Sales (Millions)
Term Units Sales (Millions) Units
Fall Term 2010 485,636 $ 22.9 297,786 $ 11.7
Spring & Summer
2011 997,245 $ 45.9 1,344,498 $ 51.2
Fall Term 2011 1,969,199 $ 92.8 1,830,288 $ 60.7
Spring & Summer
2012 1,248,288 $ 53.6 2,246,607 $ 79.5
Note: Rentals as sold through PT-HE Data Suppliers: Not including Chegg
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27. Top Disciplines for Rentals:
Top Discipline
1 English
2 Psychology
3 Mathematics
4 History
5 Biological Sciences
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Current Expectations of
Higher Ed Institutions
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Publishers interested in…..
Sell through…
• What percent of students enrolled actually
buy the required textbook?
• How does this differ by format (print
textbook, custom, digital text)?
• How does this differ by Discipline?
• How does this differ by Pub Date?
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Publishers interested in…..
Sell through…
• What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required
textbook?
• Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” in 4 courses
80%
70%
4%
60% 4%
50% 20% 5%
4% used rent
2% 3%
3% 3% new rent
40%
9% 16%
10% used
30%
new
20% 40%
29% 32%
28%
10%
0%
English Economics Mathematics Psychology
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Publishers interested in…..
Sell through…
• What if it’s custom?
• Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” of custom
product in same 4 courses
100%
90%
1%
80% 12%
70%
60% 1% used rent
1% 0%
50% 6% 7% 13% new rent
40% used
73%
30% new
50% 50%
20% 44%
10%
0%
English Economics Mathematics Psychology
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Publishers interested in…..
Shift to Digital…
• Despite high costs of textbooks, why does print still
dominate?
• When can we expect the instructor/higher ed market
to transition?
• Will the nature of the “textbook” have to change?
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33. Textbook Purchase Source
(Source: Bowker Market Research: Book Buyer Tracker N= 842, annually)
60%
50%
40%
In Store (in person)
30% Online
device/app
20%
10%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
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34. Textbook outlet sources:
40%
35%
30%
25%
Amazon.com
other eCommerce
20%
Large chain stores
College Bookstores
15%
10%
5%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
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35. Textbook binding trends (BMR):
80%
70%
60%
50%
Paperback
40%
Harcover
Digital textbook
30%
20%
10%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
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36. SO LET’S HEAR FROM THE
STUDENTS!
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37. Thanks!
Carl Kulo
US Director Market Research
Bowker
Carl.Kulo@bowker.com
www.bowker.com
@Bowker
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