BISG's MIP for Higher Ed Publishing 2013 -- Carl Kulo
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BISG's MIP for Higher Ed Publishing 2013 -- Carl Kulo

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Carl Kulo of Bowker Market Research presents at BISG's Making Information Pay for Higher Ed Publishing conference, February 7, 2013.

Carl Kulo of Bowker Market Research presents at BISG's Making Information Pay for Higher Ed Publishing conference, February 7, 2013.

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    BISG's MIP for Higher Ed Publishing 2013 -- Carl Kulo BISG's MIP for Higher Ed Publishing 2013 -- Carl Kulo Presentation Transcript

    • Now welcoming Carl Kulo US Director, Bowker Market Research “The State of Higher Ed Publishing: By the Numbers”© 2013, the Book Industry Study Group, Inc. 0
    • Overview of College Textbook Market Academic Year 2012
    • InsertImage Here Carl Kulo BISG Making Information Pay Higher Ed Event February 7, 2013 2
    • PubTrack Higher Ed: What is it?• The “Go-To” source for data about U.S. CollegeCourse material “sell through” and “adoption”.•Used by over 100 clients 3
    • Where does the data come from? Course material P-O-S Adoption DemandTracks new and Course Book Pre-order used Point-of- Data collected in Use and wholesaler Sample from over 3630 Instructor data Sale Data on represents ~60% bookstores, & data from overCourse Materials (FTE) of the US online e-tailers collected from 4200 stores from 4-yr, 2-yr, Higher Ed market tied to over 2,500 college and and For-Profit schools registrars schools e-tailers office 4
    • PubTrack HE Data Sources: . o B&N o Follett Campus o Nebraska Books Book o ~ 1,500 Independent campus stores Stores o Discipline level o B&NCollege.com o ISBN tagging Online oMBS Direct Publisher o eCampus.com o Returns Book Files o Sell-out Stores PubTrack Higher Education o Professor Profiles Course & o Course codes Wholesalers Department o Carnegie Codes Demand Data o MBS Information o Follett Demand For-Profit o Apollo Group-Axia College Institutions o Apollo Group-Univ. of Phoenix (all) o Laureate Education o Corinthian College, Inc. o ITT o DeVry 5
    • What it is and What it isn’t….• Primarily data comes through college bookstores (including in-store and online)• Tracks data that can be tied to a school• Data from Amazon and other e-tailers (can’t be tied to schools) and are not included• Data on other alternate sources (e.g., student swaps, etc) not included• BISG Student Survey will give a holistic view of what students are doing regarding course material 6
    • 7
    • The “Big Picture” . What can PubTrack Higher Ed tell us about what American college students are buying for their courses?
    • The College Textbook market levels off Total Sales in Billions$9.0$8.0 $7.7 $7.4 $7.4 $7.3$7.0 $6.3 $6.3 $6.0$6.0$5.0$4.0$3.0$2.0$1.0 $- AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 9
    • New Textbook Prices Rising, but Used is holding steady!$90.00 $82.17$80.00 $77.25 $73.85$70.00 $69.95 $64.31 $61.71$60.00 $60.47 $60.68 $58.89 $57.27 $56.98$50.00 $50.74 Avg. New Price $47.50 $46.34 Avg. Used Price$40.00$30.00 AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 10
    • Two Thirds of Units Sold are New Units – little change over time100% 90% 80% 70% 67% 66% 64% 66% 67% 67% 68% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 34% 34% 36% 35% 33% 33% 32% 10% 0% AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 Used Units New Units 11
    • Over ¾ of Textbook Dollars Sold are New Units100% 90% 80% 70% 71% 72% 70% 70% 70% 72% 74% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 29% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 26% 10% 0% AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 Used $ New $ 12
    • Which Textbooks are Keepers?Top 10 Disciplines with Lowest Used Book Rates Nursing 22% Mathematics 22% Business Education/Vo-Tech 22% Engineering 21% Biological Sciences 20% Computers & Information Systems 18% Foreign Languages and Literature 17% Chemistry 17% Accounting 17% ESL 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 13
    • And which Texts are not? Top Disciplines with Highest Used Book Rates Anthropology 48% History 47% Sociology 46% Theater 45% Philosophy 44% Classics 44%Parks & Recreation 44% Art 44% Criminal Justice 43% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 14
    • ‘The Basics’Top 10 Disciplines in Total Dollar Sales (est. in millions)• . Mathematics $875 English $628 Biological Sciences $514 Psychology $455 Computers & Information $303 Systems Accounting $266 Foreign Languages and $262 Literature Chemistry $260 Education $256 Engineering $228 $- $500 $1,000 Millions 15
    • Finance, Engineering. & C.S. are growing again! Top 10 Growing Disciplines (in $) AY 2011 to AY 2012 Finance 13.3% Engineering 13.3% Computer Science 12.1% Animal Science 12.0% Social Work 11.5% Quantitative Business 9.2% Legal Studies 7.8% Chemistry 6.9% Physics 6.5% Geography 6.0% 16
    • Where the jobs ‘aren’t’-Top 10 Declining Disciplines AY 2010 to AY 2011 English -9.16% Classics -9.07% Dance -8.61% History -7.78% Art -7.66% Philosophy -7.50% Political Science -7.35% Interdisciplinary Studies -6.23% Sociology -5.30% Education -3.76% 17
    • 101 - Psych & SpanishTop 10 Courses in Total Dollar Sales (millions) English Composition $170 Intro Psychology $169 Elementary Spanish $130 CIS: MS Office Suites $125 Intro General Chemistry $104 Non-Majors Biology $94 Human Anatomy and Physiology $89 Majors Biology $81 Mathematics: Softw are $79 $- $100 $200 Millions 18
    • Top 10 Textbooks (ISBN’s) in Total Dollar Sales (millions) The Art of Public Speaking (PK w /Connect Lucas) 9.6 Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association 9.0 CINS 101: Computer Concepts (PK w /MyItLab) 8.9 Microsoft Office 2010: Introductory 8.6 Campbell Biology 8.4 Campbell Biology (PK w /MasteringBiology) 8.2 Human Anatomy and Physiology 6.7 A Writers Reference 6.6 Exploring Psychology 6.2 Intermediate Accounting 6.2 $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 Millions 19
    • But it’s not just about the ISBN–Consider total size of these franchises…. Total Sales (est.) Marieb $ 44 million Campbell Biology $ 5 million Lucas $ 12 million 20
    • InsertImage Here Formats of Course Materials: Focus on Digital 21
    • Sales by Format 100% 13% 90% 17% Custom 80% 12% 19% 70% Digital Textbook (including ebook pkg/bundles/custom) 60% 50% Package/Bundle (primary 40% 67% print) 58% 30% Print 20% 10%Spring/Summer 2011 7% 5% Supplements 0% 2012 units 2012 $ 22
    • Pricing•Overall average textbook price: $65 (New & Used – unchanged from 2011)•Overall average digital textbook price: $61 (up from $56 in 2011) 23
    • Wide Array of ‘e’Top 5 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates AY 2012 Units Foreign Languages and Literature 6.15% Computers & Information Systems 5.28% Marketing 2.10% Quantitative Business 1.87% Film Studies 1.53% 24
    • Rental growth strong for used: Used Rental New Rental New Rental Used Rental Sales (Millions)Term Units Sales (Millions) UnitsFall Term 2010 485,636 $ 22.9 297,786 $ 11.7Spring & Summer2011 997,245 $ 45.9 1,344,498 $ 51.2Fall Term 2011 1,969,199 $ 92.8 1,830,288 $ 60.7Spring & Summer2012 1,248,288 $ 53.6 2,246,607 $ 79.5 Note: Rentals as sold through PT-HE Data Suppliers: Not including Chegg 25
    • Top Disciplines for Rentals:Top Discipline 1 English 2 Psychology 3 Mathematics 4 History 5 Biological Sciences 26
    • InsertImage Here Current Expectations of Higher Ed Institutions 27
    • InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Sell through… • What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required textbook? • How does this differ by format (print textbook, custom, digital text)? • How does this differ by Discipline? • How does this differ by Pub Date? 28
    • InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Sell through… • What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required textbook? • Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” in 4 courses 80% 70% 4% 60% 4% 50% 20% 5% 4% used rent 2% 3% 3% 3% new rent 40% 9% 16% 10% used 30% new 20% 40% 29% 32% 28% 10% 0% English Economics Mathematics Psychology 29
    • InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Sell through… • What if it’s custom? • Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” of custom product in same 4 courses 100% 90% 1% 80% 12% 70% 60% 1% used rent 1% 0% 50% 6% 7% 13% new rent 40% used 73% 30% new 50% 50% 20% 44% 10% 0% English Economics Mathematics Psychology 30
    • InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Shift to Digital… • Despite high costs of textbooks, why does print still dominate? • When can we expect the instructor/higher ed market to transition? • Will the nature of the “textbook” have to change? 31
    • Textbook Purchase Source(Source: Bowker Market Research: Book Buyer Tracker N= 842, annually)60%50%40% In Store (in person)30% Online device/app20%10%0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 32
    • Textbook outlet sources: 40% 35% 30% 25% Amazon.com other eCommerce 20% Large chain stores College Bookstores 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 33
    • Textbook binding trends (BMR):80%70%60%50% Paperback40% Harcover Digital textbook30%20%10%0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 34
    • SO LET’S HEAR FROM THESTUDENTS! 35
    • Thanks!Carl KuloUS Director Market ResearchBowkerCarl.Kulo@bowker.comwww.bowker.com@Bowker 36