BISG's MIP for Higher Ed Publishing 2013 -- Carl Kulo

1,451 views
1,305 views

Published on

Carl Kulo of Bowker Market Research presents at BISG's Making Information Pay for Higher Ed Publishing conference, February 7, 2013.

Published in: Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,451
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
60
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

BISG's MIP for Higher Ed Publishing 2013 -- Carl Kulo

  1. 1. Now welcoming Carl Kulo US Director, Bowker Market Research “The State of Higher Ed Publishing: By the Numbers”© 2013, the Book Industry Study Group, Inc. 0
  2. 2. Overview of College Textbook Market Academic Year 2012
  3. 3. InsertImage Here Carl Kulo BISG Making Information Pay Higher Ed Event February 7, 2013 2
  4. 4. PubTrack Higher Ed: What is it?• The “Go-To” source for data about U.S. CollegeCourse material “sell through” and “adoption”.•Used by over 100 clients 3
  5. 5. Where does the data come from? Course material P-O-S Adoption DemandTracks new and Course Book Pre-order used Point-of- Data collected in Use and wholesaler Sample from over 3630 Instructor data Sale Data on represents ~60% bookstores, & data from overCourse Materials (FTE) of the US online e-tailers collected from 4200 stores from 4-yr, 2-yr, Higher Ed market tied to over 2,500 college and and For-Profit schools registrars schools e-tailers office 4
  6. 6. PubTrack HE Data Sources: . o B&N o Follett Campus o Nebraska Books Book o ~ 1,500 Independent campus stores Stores o Discipline level o B&NCollege.com o ISBN tagging Online oMBS Direct Publisher o eCampus.com o Returns Book Files o Sell-out Stores PubTrack Higher Education o Professor Profiles Course & o Course codes Wholesalers Department o Carnegie Codes Demand Data o MBS Information o Follett Demand For-Profit o Apollo Group-Axia College Institutions o Apollo Group-Univ. of Phoenix (all) o Laureate Education o Corinthian College, Inc. o ITT o DeVry 5
  7. 7. What it is and What it isn’t….• Primarily data comes through college bookstores (including in-store and online)• Tracks data that can be tied to a school• Data from Amazon and other e-tailers (can’t be tied to schools) and are not included• Data on other alternate sources (e.g., student swaps, etc) not included• BISG Student Survey will give a holistic view of what students are doing regarding course material 6
  8. 8. 7
  9. 9. The “Big Picture” . What can PubTrack Higher Ed tell us about what American college students are buying for their courses?
  10. 10. The College Textbook market levels off Total Sales in Billions$9.0$8.0 $7.7 $7.4 $7.4 $7.3$7.0 $6.3 $6.3 $6.0$6.0$5.0$4.0$3.0$2.0$1.0 $- AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 9
  11. 11. New Textbook Prices Rising, but Used is holding steady!$90.00 $82.17$80.00 $77.25 $73.85$70.00 $69.95 $64.31 $61.71$60.00 $60.47 $60.68 $58.89 $57.27 $56.98$50.00 $50.74 Avg. New Price $47.50 $46.34 Avg. Used Price$40.00$30.00 AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 10
  12. 12. Two Thirds of Units Sold are New Units – little change over time100% 90% 80% 70% 67% 66% 64% 66% 67% 67% 68% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 34% 34% 36% 35% 33% 33% 32% 10% 0% AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 Used Units New Units 11
  13. 13. Over ¾ of Textbook Dollars Sold are New Units100% 90% 80% 70% 71% 72% 70% 70% 70% 72% 74% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 29% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 26% 10% 0% AY 06 AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 Used $ New $ 12
  14. 14. Which Textbooks are Keepers?Top 10 Disciplines with Lowest Used Book Rates Nursing 22% Mathematics 22% Business Education/Vo-Tech 22% Engineering 21% Biological Sciences 20% Computers & Information Systems 18% Foreign Languages and Literature 17% Chemistry 17% Accounting 17% ESL 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 13
  15. 15. And which Texts are not? Top Disciplines with Highest Used Book Rates Anthropology 48% History 47% Sociology 46% Theater 45% Philosophy 44% Classics 44%Parks & Recreation 44% Art 44% Criminal Justice 43% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 14
  16. 16. ‘The Basics’Top 10 Disciplines in Total Dollar Sales (est. in millions)• . Mathematics $875 English $628 Biological Sciences $514 Psychology $455 Computers & Information $303 Systems Accounting $266 Foreign Languages and $262 Literature Chemistry $260 Education $256 Engineering $228 $- $500 $1,000 Millions 15
  17. 17. Finance, Engineering. & C.S. are growing again! Top 10 Growing Disciplines (in $) AY 2011 to AY 2012 Finance 13.3% Engineering 13.3% Computer Science 12.1% Animal Science 12.0% Social Work 11.5% Quantitative Business 9.2% Legal Studies 7.8% Chemistry 6.9% Physics 6.5% Geography 6.0% 16
  18. 18. Where the jobs ‘aren’t’-Top 10 Declining Disciplines AY 2010 to AY 2011 English -9.16% Classics -9.07% Dance -8.61% History -7.78% Art -7.66% Philosophy -7.50% Political Science -7.35% Interdisciplinary Studies -6.23% Sociology -5.30% Education -3.76% 17
  19. 19. 101 - Psych & SpanishTop 10 Courses in Total Dollar Sales (millions) English Composition $170 Intro Psychology $169 Elementary Spanish $130 CIS: MS Office Suites $125 Intro General Chemistry $104 Non-Majors Biology $94 Human Anatomy and Physiology $89 Majors Biology $81 Mathematics: Softw are $79 $- $100 $200 Millions 18
  20. 20. Top 10 Textbooks (ISBN’s) in Total Dollar Sales (millions) The Art of Public Speaking (PK w /Connect Lucas) 9.6 Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association 9.0 CINS 101: Computer Concepts (PK w /MyItLab) 8.9 Microsoft Office 2010: Introductory 8.6 Campbell Biology 8.4 Campbell Biology (PK w /MasteringBiology) 8.2 Human Anatomy and Physiology 6.7 A Writers Reference 6.6 Exploring Psychology 6.2 Intermediate Accounting 6.2 $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 Millions 19
  21. 21. But it’s not just about the ISBN–Consider total size of these franchises…. Total Sales (est.) Marieb $ 44 million Campbell Biology $ 5 million Lucas $ 12 million 20
  22. 22. InsertImage Here Formats of Course Materials: Focus on Digital 21
  23. 23. Sales by Format 100% 13% 90% 17% Custom 80% 12% 19% 70% Digital Textbook (including ebook pkg/bundles/custom) 60% 50% Package/Bundle (primary 40% 67% print) 58% 30% Print 20% 10%Spring/Summer 2011 7% 5% Supplements 0% 2012 units 2012 $ 22
  24. 24. Pricing•Overall average textbook price: $65 (New & Used – unchanged from 2011)•Overall average digital textbook price: $61 (up from $56 in 2011) 23
  25. 25. Wide Array of ‘e’Top 5 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates AY 2012 Units Foreign Languages and Literature 6.15% Computers & Information Systems 5.28% Marketing 2.10% Quantitative Business 1.87% Film Studies 1.53% 24
  26. 26. Rental growth strong for used: Used Rental New Rental New Rental Used Rental Sales (Millions)Term Units Sales (Millions) UnitsFall Term 2010 485,636 $ 22.9 297,786 $ 11.7Spring & Summer2011 997,245 $ 45.9 1,344,498 $ 51.2Fall Term 2011 1,969,199 $ 92.8 1,830,288 $ 60.7Spring & Summer2012 1,248,288 $ 53.6 2,246,607 $ 79.5 Note: Rentals as sold through PT-HE Data Suppliers: Not including Chegg 25
  27. 27. Top Disciplines for Rentals:Top Discipline 1 English 2 Psychology 3 Mathematics 4 History 5 Biological Sciences 26
  28. 28. InsertImage Here Current Expectations of Higher Ed Institutions 27
  29. 29. InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Sell through… • What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required textbook? • How does this differ by format (print textbook, custom, digital text)? • How does this differ by Discipline? • How does this differ by Pub Date? 28
  30. 30. InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Sell through… • What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required textbook? • Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” in 4 courses 80% 70% 4% 60% 4% 50% 20% 5% 4% used rent 2% 3% 3% 3% new rent 40% 9% 16% 10% used 30% new 20% 40% 29% 32% 28% 10% 0% English Economics Mathematics Psychology 29
  31. 31. InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Sell through… • What if it’s custom? • Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” of custom product in same 4 courses 100% 90% 1% 80% 12% 70% 60% 1% used rent 1% 0% 50% 6% 7% 13% new rent 40% used 73% 30% new 50% 50% 20% 44% 10% 0% English Economics Mathematics Psychology 30
  32. 32. InsertImage Here Publishers interested in….. Shift to Digital… • Despite high costs of textbooks, why does print still dominate? • When can we expect the instructor/higher ed market to transition? • Will the nature of the “textbook” have to change? 31
  33. 33. Textbook Purchase Source(Source: Bowker Market Research: Book Buyer Tracker N= 842, annually)60%50%40% In Store (in person)30% Online device/app20%10%0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 32
  34. 34. Textbook outlet sources: 40% 35% 30% 25% Amazon.com other eCommerce 20% Large chain stores College Bookstores 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 33
  35. 35. Textbook binding trends (BMR):80%70%60%50% Paperback40% Harcover Digital textbook30%20%10%0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 34
  36. 36. SO LET’S HEAR FROM THESTUDENTS! 35
  37. 37. Thanks!Carl KuloUS Director Market ResearchBowkerCarl.Kulo@bowker.comwww.bowker.com@Bowker 36

×