The document discusses the emerging challenges related to water supply, consumption, and potential impacts of climate change on water demand. It emphasizes the complexities concerning demographics, practices, and policy interventions necessary for addressing water scarcity issues by 2050. The document also outlines modeling approaches and future research directions to improve understanding and management of water consumption patterns.

1. Practices by proxy:
Climate, Consumption and
Water
Dr Ben Anderson
Department of Sociology, University of Essex &
Lancaster Environment Centre
ESRC Sustainable Practices Research Group
20 March 2012

2. Practices: Climate, Consumption and Water
Why?
How?
What?
Where next?

3. Why?

4. Water is (going to be) a problem
 Supply problems:
» Locally/regionally scarce
» Climate change effects?
 Energy problems:
» ‘Clean’ water costs and ‘clean’ is a
moving target
 Demand problems:
» 50% used by households
» Drivers not well understood
» Climate change effects?
 Demographic problems
» Increasing single person
households
Source: Environment Agency, 2008

5. Water is (going to be) a problem
 With no ‘behaviour’ change and no flow controls
2050
Source: DEFRA, 2011

6. Micro water: Conceptual Framework
‘habits’
Why people don’t do
‘bodily and mental routines’
what they ‘should’
‘permanent dispositions’
Consumption = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error
Regulation/ Education
Market/ ?! ? Information
Supply Exhortation
Policy levers
Climate change

7. What is currently unclear…
Consumption
Price Demographics Practices Attitudes
Error
Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)

8. What is currently unclear…
Consumption
Price Demographics Practices Attitudes
Error
Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)

9. What is currently unclear…
Consumption
Price Demographics Practices Attitudes
Error
Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)

10. What is currently unclear…
Consumption
Price Demographics Practices Attitudes
Education
Information
Exhortation?
Error
Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)

11. What is currently unclear…
Consumption
Price Demographics Practices Attitudes
Error
Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)

12. How?

13. Data I (Household water demand)
Ideal Proxy (EFS 2002-2009)
water (l/day) £ water/week
Demographics Demographics
Shampoo,soap
Fruit & Veg
detergents
Practices £/week
Tea, coffee, juices Garden products
Price Price
Attitudes Attitudes

14. Data II (Weather/Climate)
 MetOffice Regional Weather records
Weather data http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/
 Linked to
25 £5.05
– household government office region £5.00
– Lagged survey month
20 £4.95
£4.90
 Observed
15 £4.85
£4.80
–
10 Mean rainfall £4.75
£4.70
–5 Number of rain days £4.65
–0
Mean temperature £4.60
£4.55
– Mean sunshine hours
january
february
march
april
may
june
july
august october
september
december
november
Climate data  3 year anomalies
Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm) Mean number
raindays
Mean sunshine Mean temperature
hours (/10)

15. Modelling approach
 2005 prices £7.00 40.00%
 Selection: £6.00 35.00%
30.00%
£5.00
– Have water meter (England) £4.00
25.00%
20.00%
£3.00
15.00%
£2.00 10.00%
£1.00 5.00%
£0.00 0.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
No water me- Has water % metered
ter meter

16. Modelling approach
 2005 prices All households 39121
 Selection: Metered 11119
– Have water meter (England)
Separate water & 1387
– Pay water & sewerage combined sewerage
Remaining 9732

17. Modelling approach
 2005 prices All households 39121
 Selection: Metered 11119
– Have water meter (England)
Separate water & 1387
– Pay water & sewerage combined sewerage
 Split sample into ‘seasons’
20 £4.90 Remaining 9732
15 £4.85
10 £4.80
5 £4.75
0 £4.70
Winter (Dec – Feb) Spring (Mar – May) Summer (Jun – Aug) Autumn (Sep – Nov)
Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm) Mean number
raindays
Mean sunshine Mean temperature
hours (/10)

18. Modelling approach
 2005 prices
 Selection: Proxy (EFS 2002-2009)
– Have water meter (England)
– Pay water & sewerage combined £ water/week
 Model 1
– Demographics & practices, no weather/ Demographics
climate Fruit & Veg
Shampoo,soap
 Model 2 by season £/week
detergents
– includes lagged weather & 'climate' Garden products
Tea, coffee, juices
 Plus controls:
Price
– Ownership of dishwasher, income,
Climate data Weather data
region, tenure, number rooms, number
of cars, number of earners, Attitudes
accommodation type

19. What?

20. Model 1: Demographics & practices
 Contributions to model
Practices
Illness, age, gender & ethnicity of HRP
Age composition (adults)
Age composition (young people)
R2
change in r2
Cars, earners, employment, composition
Housing type, rooms, tenure
Govt Office Region & Year
Washing machine, dishwasher, income
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3

21. Model 1: Demographic effects
N adults 70+
N adults 65-70
N adults 60-65
N adults 45-60
N female adults < 45
N male adults < 45
N single females 16-18
N single males 16-18
N Children 14-16
N Children < 14
-0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2
b

22. Model 1: ‘Practices’ effects
 Contributions to model
Plants, flowers, seeds
Lawn mowers
Garden tools
Kitchen gloves/cloths
Detergents/washing powder
Laundry/Laundrettes
Soap/shower gel
Mineral/spring water
Vegetable juices
Fruit juices (incl squash)
Coffee
Tea
Pasta
Rice
Leaf & stem vegetables
Potatoes
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
b

23. Model 2: Demographics & practices & weather
 Contributions to model (all
seasons)
Weather/climate
Practices
Illness, age, gender & ethnicity of HRP
Age composition (adults)
Age composition (young people) R2
change in r2
Cars, earners, employment, composition
Housing type, rooms, tenure
Govt Office Region
Washing machine, dishwasher, income
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3

24. Model 2: Weather effects
 Only in Autumn:
Unusually hot & dry (rain days, 3 year anom)
Unusually hot & dry (rainfall, 3 year anom)
Mean temperature (3 year anom)
Mean temperature
Mean sunshine (3 year anom)
Mean sunshine
Rain days (3 year anom)
Rain days
Mean rainfall (3 year anom)
Mean rainfall
-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
b

25. Conclusions
 The practice proxies approach offers value?
 The weather data doesn't?
 Confounding problems?
– Expenditures as proxies?
– Garden/soil type?
– Period of water use?
– Included sewerage costs?
– Poorly matched and coarse grained weather 'regions'?
– Consumer water saving responses to 'dry' weather?

26. Where next?
• Multilevel model?
– Weather data 'clustered'
– But is it worth it?
• More accurate water bill period?
– Closer match to weather
• Better geo-coding?
– More accurate match to weather, soils,
water prices/company
 'Practices' Survey
 Linked to water meter data
 Small area estimates of demand
 Census 2001 – 2011

27. Where next?
• Multilevel model?
– Weather data 'clustered'
– But is it worth it?
• More accurate water bill period?
– Closer match to weather
• Better geo-coding?
– More accurate match to weather, soils,
water prices/company
 'Practices' Survey
 Linked to water meter data
 Small area estimates of demand
 Census 2001 – 2011
 Application to energy demand?

28. Thank you!
• ESRC Sustainable Practices Research Group
• www.sprg.ac.uk/projects-fellowships/patterns-of-water
Contact:
– Ben Anderson (benander@essex.ac.uk)