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New Zealand 2050
The document analyzes various aspects of New Zealand, including its demographic changes, economic wealth, and cultural identity, while addressing the impacts of climate change and governance issues. It highlights significant population shifts, especially the aging demographic and its fiscal implications, as well as discusses trade structures and perceptions of national identity. Additionally, it notes that climate change poses both challenges and opportunities for New Zealand's economic and environmental future.
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New Zealand 2050
- 1. New Zealand Population structures and diversity Climate change Economic wealth : Is it good enough? Nothing is sacred: Defining resource use How we trade Earthquake central: shocks Paying for the future: Fiscal responsibility or irresponsibility A sclerosis of governance or not Knowledge capacity Identity, perception and culture 1
- 2. Population Structures andDiversity Indicator 2010 2050 Population (thousands) 4 303 5 349 Male population (thousands) 2 126 2 661 Female population (thousands) 2 177 2 688 Population sex ratio (males per 97.7 99.0 100 females) Percentage aged 0-4 (%) 6.8 5.5 Percentage aged 5-14 (%) 13.5 11.1 Percentage aged 15-24 (%) 14.6 11.4 Percentage aged 60 or over (%) 18.2 29.2 Percentage aged 65 or over (%) 13.0 23.2 Percentage aged 80 or over (%) 3.5 9.0 Percentage of women aged 15- 48.8 40.7 49 (%)
- 3. Economic Wealth: Isit Good Enough? 3
- 4. Economic Wealth: Isit Good Enough? According Gareth Morgan (2006) New Zealand is on the brink of a retirement tsunami, a tidal wave of ageing baby boomers is about to swamp a dwindling number of taxpayers. Wealth Distribution Per Cohort (2007)
- 5. How We Trade NZ Exports 2009 Misc/Confidential Trade 4% Tourism Education 16% 3% Mfg - Elaborately Services & Transformed Royalties 14% 7% Mfg - Simply Transformed 7% Primary - Primary - Processed Unprocessed 25% 24% Trade and Enterprise (2010): Export Composition in 2009 ($58b)
- 6. How We Trade Median Earnings $NZ by Sector 2008 50000 $38,900 40000 $33,170 30000 $21,730 $21,700 $24,010 20000 $13,170 10000 0 Accommodatio Recreation Forestry and Agriculture, Warehousing Retail Trade Total Industry Arts and Services Transport, Postal and n and Food Fishing Services 6 Source: Statistics New Zealand (2010)
- 7. Paying For theFuture Population ageing is important fiscally because 25% of government spending is currently spent on the 12% of the population aged over 65. Population ageing is likely to cause a slowdown in economic growth because of the shift to a relatively smaller working-age population. Government debt as a % of GDP (Source: New Zealand Treasury) 7
- 8. Knowledge Capacity Averagerelative earnings growth at the tertiary level of education between 1997 and 2007 and average relative earnings at the tertiary level of education deviation from the OECD average (2007) Growth in percentage point between 1997 and 2007 Deviation from OECD-19 average 2007 % 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 Degrees in tourism, performing arts, visual arts, and Source: OECD graphic and design arts earned between 10 and 20 percent less than degrees in humanities. A tourism degree resulted in 11% more earning compared to non graduates in the same field, compared to the national 8 average of 25% (Scott 2010)
- 9. Knowledge Capacity Broadband averagemonthly subscription price, Oct. 2008, USD PPP Greece 30.06 Japan 30.46 Finland 30.61 United Kingdom 30.63 Italy 31.25 Switzerland 32.71 France 35.60 Hungary 36.21 Korea 37.04 Denmark 37.08 Belgium 39.64 Ireland 43.92 United States 45.52 Canada 45.65 Portugal 46.10 Austria 46.35 Luxembourg 46.66 New Zealand 47.77 Turkey 48.02 Spain 48.22 Listen to Futurist Dr Germany 48.22 Poland 49.69 Patrick Dixon discuss Norway 51.10 why consumers won’t Czech Republic 52.69 Netherlands 53.86 wait here and the Iceland 54.92 future of mobile Australia 56.21 Mexico 59.52 technologies here Slovak Republic 78.86 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 9
- 10. Please indicate howmuch Agree % Disagree % Neither agree Strongly agree Strongly you agree or disagree with or disagree % % disagree % Identity Perception and Culture each of the following statements about NZ in 2008 NZ is a bit old-fashioned 15.59% 45.49% 21.28% 1.06% 16.02% Identity Perception and Culture NZ is a great place to raise a 25.07% 0.73% 2.61% 70.80% 0.59% family NZ is like Britain in the 1950s 6.64% 35.48% 30.49% 1.09% 25.87% NZ lives in Australia's shadow 23.39% 40.44% 15.16% 2.51% 18.17% NZ is doing a great job seizing 31.65% 21.74% 37.73% 5.12% 3.20% all its opportunities in the global economy Maori and Pacific Island cultures 48.36% 4.00% 8.06% 38.32% 0.99% are an important part of what makes NZ unique NZ is strongly environmentally 48.86% 9.68% 12.36% 27.22% 1.39% conscious as a country NZ puts too much emphasis on 3.34% 50.94% 32.18% 0.99% 12.26% "work-life balance" NZ "punches above its weight" 33.30% 23.42% 31.78% 7.93% 3.14% in global affairs NZ is too much of a career 38.32% 23.62% 26.69% 8.72% 2.35% dead-end for the most talented Kiwis NZ isn't really doing as well as 26.99% 29.07% 36.37% 4.16% 2.97% Kiwis give themselves credit for NZ is a great place to invest in 27.22% 14.77% 53.12% 3.11% 1.26% business venture I'm optimistic about NZ's 53.22% 10.14% 29.34% 6.21% 0.79 economic future NZ is a great place to retire 37.23% 1.22% 4.29% 56.43% 0.30% NZ arts, film and literature are 45.56% 7.73% 20.55% 24.51% 1.06% world-class NZ is doing a great job 52.82% 4.53% 10.80% 30.99% 0.53% promoting its image in the rest of the world 10 NZ has really moved ahead in 45.85% 6.31% 22.93% 22.93% 1.65% the last 10 years
- 11. Identity Perception andCulture Too New Zealand, rugby is the symbol of national identity which is the cornerstone of conversations, stories, life and culture and some would say there isn’t anything else …and it is the All Blacks KaMate haka that is the symbol this identity (Yeoman 2010) Some people might see a New Zealand identity in aspects of New Zealand history or in New Zealand achievements in sporting, artistic or other endeavours, while others might see it through a sense of national characteristics or traits, or through national symbols 11 and icons. Mäori culture may form one aspect of national identity, since it is both unique
- 12. A Sclerosis ofGovernance "There have been numerous attempts since the 1980s to make improvements to regulatory processes. The problem is that politicians have poor incentives; they must get re-elected, and the political cycle is short. Politicians are vulnerable to interest group pressure, and at times invite that pressure by pandering to various interest groups in search of votes. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact of life in a democracy” (Hide 2010) 12
- 13. New Zealand’s GlobalCompetitiveness Index Results (Source WEF 2010) Pillars World Ranking Score A Sclerosis of Governance Institutions 5 6.03 Infrastructure 35 4.64 Macroeconomic Stability 33 5.24 Health and Primary Education 4 6.43 Higher Education and Training 11 5.49 Goods and Services Market 8 5.20 Efficiency Labour Market Efficiency 11 5.12 Financial Market Sophistication 3 5.69 Technological Readiness 23 5.24 Market Size 59 3.89 Business Sophistication 34 4.64 13 Innovation 23 4.10
- 14. Nothing is Sacred Californiaspends approximately $400 million annually running national parks and beaches. California’s budget deficit is now $24.3 billion and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is proposing closure of 220 state parks to reduce this deficit (Young, 2009). 14
- 15. Earthquake Central According tothe ‘Its Our Fault’ project the major fault running through Wellington is 50% less likely to rupture than previously thought. New findings show the Wellington fault ruptures every 900 years and last ruptured about 300 years ago. Therefore, a catastrophic earthquake is predicted for 600 years (GNS Science, 2009). Watch the TV programme, Aftershock which simulates an earthquake in Wellington 15
- 16. Climate Change Direct effects……… • Shipping reasonably low value goods long distances increasingly unsustainable. • Potential emissions trading regime, bio fuels and energy efficiency. • Increases in temperatures of between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees. • Extreme weather, rising sea levels and changed rainfall patterns. • Higher temperatures in the South may boost primary sector productivity. • Relatively favourable climate may mean NZ becomes a preferred holiday destination (potential to attract talented migrants) • Strengthen competitive position but disrupt global supply chains.
Editor's Notes
- #4 Driver Explained:New Zealand’s GDP has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 6% since 2003, but other factors such as savings have declined at a rate of over twice this (Statistics New Zealand 2008). Taxes and employee remuneration have also kept pace with GDP growth, but it is the relative growth of New Zealand versus its principal trading partners that addresses the question: Is NZ’s GDP growth enough for the future? In 2010, Australia’s GDP/capita forecast to be $US50,500 versus $US31,000 for New Zealand. This gap is significant and closing it before 2050 would require growth in Australia’s economy to remain unchanged whilst New Zealand’s economy improved continuously. Australia won’t wait for us!. If New Zealand’s GDP growth manages to outstrip that of its trading partners, relative prosperity accrues at the difference between those rates outstripped Australia’s by a single percent per annum, its relative position against Australia between 2010 and 2050 would transform the current 15% lag into a 33% lead. Labour productivity contrasts unfavourably with most other OECD countries (although labour utilisation is favourable). If the objective is higher GDP per capita, there is a long-term challenge that must be surmounted. For New Zealand to achieve such an advantageous GDP growth rate, annual national (multi-factor: capital plus labour) productivity should improve by a factor of at least two! (New Zealand Treasury 2008) New Zealand’s industries have high labour utilisation (amongst the highest in the world), but the productivity of this labour is both an opportunity and a threat! It is already recognised that we are relatively hard-working, but perhaps a reputation for both hard and smart-working offers better prospects.The benefit accruing from currently high labour utilisation is that social costs of unemployment reduce, but the threat is that too much reliance on labour – as opposed to a better labour/capital mix - could stifle career development, lower wages and prompt emigration of skilled people. Comparisons with exemplars (e.g. USA) suggests that national multi-factor productivity should increase from its medium term average of about 0.9% to well over 1.7% in the future[1]. Such a shift in productivity would also suggest annual GDP growth of over 8%. These observations also heighten the need for improved productivity (mainly capital) from NZ’s future tourism product offerings if the relative performance of New Zealand is to improve. The difference between the compound annual growth rates for New Zealand’s GDP/Capita versus the OECD (World Economic Forum 2010) average is slight: 5.08% versus 4.14% over the 28 year period shown above. However, over time, this small difference compounds and creates a significant gap – recovery from which is probably equally lengthy! If the OECD average continues at 5.08% CAGR, New Zealand would need to lift its own growth rate from 4.14%/yr to 5.85%/yr between 2009 and 2050 to catch up! In other words, NZ’s GDP/capita would need to increase by 41% and remain so. This harmonises with the previous slide that suggests total factor productivity should more or less double from 0.9% to over 1.7%. If NZ’s GDP/capita growth could be doubled and held there for the next 40 years it would position the country within the top three OECD states by 2050.For the Future:New Zealand will need to enjoy some extraordinary, but positive change, in its economy. If population continues to rise, productivity needs to rise at a significantly faster rate. If population falls, the challenge is not as acute, but the skill sets remaining in NZ must be highly productive – i.e. no brain drain! Simply put, NZ is at a crossroad: the journey towards the prosperity once enjoyed (e.g. the early 1960’s when NZ was in the OECD’s top tier) requires changes in what we do and how we do it - and more radically so it if population increases also widen the socio-economic gap amongst sectors of the community.References:New Zealand Treasury (2008) New Zealand’s Productivity Performance. Accessed on the 10th April at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/tprp/08-02/05.htm/#ref8 Statistics New Zealand. (2008). National Accounts. Accessed on the 21st April 2010 at http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/NationalAccounts/NationalAccounts_HOTPyeMar08.aspxWorld Economic Forum. (2010). The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010. Accessed on the 10th April 2010 at http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf.
- #7 Driver explained:The median earnings for a sample of the characteristic and related sectors of tourism as well as agriculture identifies further challenges that need to be considered en route to 2050 (Statistics New Zealand 2010). These sectors are important contributors to exports (the retail sector accounts for approximately 45% of tourism value added). Accommodation and food services are somewhat fundamental to any form of physical tourism yet the relatively low level of median earnings reflects several underlying factors: the inability of these two sectors to retain highly skilled people and the seasonal nature of opportunities. Analysis of the economic surpluses (the contribution to capital employed) of tourism characteristic and tourism related industries indicated relatively poor returns from the accommodation sector - in contrast with those arising from retail and recreational services (Moriarty 2010). The issue for tourism in the years ahead, at least for the latter half of the scenario horizon (2025-2050), is whether relatively low-wage products are capable of generating levels of economic value consistent with the goal of improved productivity and higher rankings within the OECD. It may also be said that the same issues apply with equal urgency to agriculture – despite this sector’s high level of research and development and technology uptake. Tourism and agriculture contribute well over 50% of total exports despite the encumbrance of seasonality. The productive capacity of these crucial sectors would rise dramatically if seasonality was overcome. Tourism’s resource utilisation would improve by at least 40% if seasonality was defeated: agriculture would likely improve by about 25 to 30%. For the future:A question that arises from the above chart is the ongoing level of tolerance that skilled people will have for the serving services sectors if they continue to remunerate at relatively low levels compared with other sectors in the economy. Those who see tourism as a vital future export sector must reconcile this desire with the reality that the median earnings of its workforce are less than half of the national average and show little sign of improving unless there is a serious change in the profitability of our visitor streams.References:Moriarty, J. P. (2007). Division Benchmarks for New Zealand Tourism and Characteristic and Related Industries 2001-2005 (No. 6c). Canterbury, NZ: TRREC, Lincoln University.Statistics New Zealand (2010): LEED Table Builder; 2008 Tax Year, Tourism Characteristic and Related Sectors. Accessed on the 1st March 2010 at http://www.stats.govt.nz/methods_and_services/access-data/TableBuilder/leed-quarterly-tables.aspx
- #8 Driver Explained: Current tax revenue is insufficient to balance current spending. Left unchanged, the income tax system will raise more revenue by pushing more and more taxpayers into higher income tax brackets – an average wage earner is projected to earn more than $70,000 by around 2023, and so face the top rate of 38%. Although increased tax revenue could help achieve a more sustainable long-term fiscal position, higher taxes are likely to result in slower economic growth and lower incomes for New Zealanders. There are serious issues around the current design of the tax system: the effect of different taxes on economic growth; international competition for people and capital; and the coherence and fairness of the tax system” (The Treasury, 2009).The recent review of the taxation system by the Tax Working Group (2010) echoed the concerns of the NZ Treasury – the current system is unsustainable as its structural deficiencies cannot support future needs. A graduated personal income taxation regime is a relatively inexpensive and pervasive method of revenue generation, more so if deductions are minimal and income is collected at source. However the situation in 2009 shows that personal income taxation not only accounts for over 50% of government income, but is sourced from a relatively small pool of “high” income earners. This pool supplies about 60% of total tax – much of which is re-distributed to others who meet the qualifying criteria for tax credits. Can New Zealand afford it’s future? The chart extrapolates to a situation that is unlikely to occur as the risk associated with funding a country like NZ to this level of sovereign deficit.Currently (2010) Greece has sovereign debt of €216b versus a GDP of about €180b (120%) but it is within the EU and remedial action from member states will occur – if only to protect the euro. New Zealand's exchange rate would collapse under similar circumstances and default would be a likely outcome as refinancing would become impossible.However, Treasury’s position is that radical restructuring is preferred over incrementalism given the demographic shifts that will occur, chronically low levels of productivity and distance-related threats (from our geographic position) in a future world of energy constraint.For the future:Many sacred cows prevent a rational approach to taxation. During the 1970s, an oil shock, widespread subsidisation of poorly performing agricultural products and an overvalued currency and excessive borrowing resulted in the near default of the New Zealand economy by 1984. History has shown that a reversal in economic prosperity can occur rapidly if a number of conditions conspire! Expectations seldom change in direct harmony with economic circumstances and this allows the possibility of wild cards to influence our ability to pay for the future. Seemingly a crisis of sorts is necessary to sanction improvements to revenue generation methods that have only changed incrementally for the past 50 years. A key issue for future debate is the policy approach: incremental change versus radical restructuring. The former risks serious underachievement in the years ahead and the latter risks immediate political backlash as it attacks current practices that a great many people have relied upon (for decades) to improve their personal wealth (property, tax loss entities - Loss Attributing Qualifying Companie, etc). What do you think should happen?References:New Zealand Treasury (2009). Challenges and Choices: New Zealand’s Long Term Fiscal Statement.Accessed on the 10th March 2010 at http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/longterm/fiscalposition/2009 Tax Working Group(2010). A Tax System for New Zealand’s Future.Accessed on the 10th March 2010 at http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sacl/cagtr/pdf/tax-report-website.pdf
- #9 Driver Explained:New Zealand’s population performance in higher education is comparative in the OECD (2008) range with approximately 16% of the population acquiring type A tertiary education attainment (3 year degree of better), which is also the OECD average. Few would argue that improved levels of higher education are desirable and increase the knowledge capacity of a country. One of the measures of higher education is the extent to which graduates enjoy a return on their investment (in many cases a substantial liability) in comparison with those who do not undertake such studies. For the 10 years preceding 2007, those with higher education in New Zealand suffered a 30% erosion in relative earnings growth-the worst recorded in the OECD. Where have our graduates gone to? Is this situation sustainable? If this information is coupled with a relatively high proportion of skilled immigrants choosing Australia as a permanent place of residence i.e., the Brain Drain Effect. Studies by Scott (2010) highlight that tourism is a poor cousin compared to other fields of study. Degrees in tourism, performing arts, visual arts, and graphic and design arts earned between 10 and 20 percent less than degrees in humanities. A tourism degree resulted in 11% more earning compared to non graduates in the same field, compared to the national average of 25% For the Future:Modern graduates require local opportunities to earn substantially more than the average wage if they are to repay the liabilities incurred during their years of study. If these local opportunities are scarce or poorly remunerated, the outcome could be a brain drain that would not only reduce capacity for innovation but also effectively write-off public debts (student loans repaid via the tax system) incurred by departing graduates.References:Scott, D (2010) What Do Students Earn After Their Tertiary Education? Accessed on 10th March 2010 at http://www.stats.govt.nz/Publications/WorkKnowledgeAndSkills/LEED-reports/eote-what-do-students-earn-after-their-tertiary-education.aspxOECD (2008)OECD Reviews of Tertiary Education. Accessed on the 10th April at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/11/52/38012419.pdf.
- #10 Driver explained:The Association of broadband access with knowledge has many different facets and dimensions, the bandwidth required to replace print media is approximately 1 to 2 MB per second whereas multisensory communications require substantially more bandwidth- approximately 10 MB per second.Virtual reality not only requires high bandwidth but unlike the previous two examples, requires streaming. For example, replication of human stereo vision requires a streaming bandwidth of approximately 10 MB per second per eye.Countries that can provide cheap, fast and pervasive broadband access offer greater potential for participation, innovation and automation in future personal and business functions. This information prompts debate about the price-elasticity opportunities for broadband that lie ahead. Just as mobile telephony expanded from 0% in 1987 to about 95% by 2008, so too will broadband expand as technology is deployed. New Zealand ranks at about 50% on the OECD league table. This status also reflects the geographic challenges and low population densities and exist outside of the four major population centres(Greater Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin). In 2001 (Ministry of Economic Development), tourism was already assessed to be the most IT-ready sector in the New Zealand economy and well-placed to make even more extensive use of the wired world in the future - provided it can retain the skills and profitability to do so. Broadband is well advanced for urban but not so well advanced a rural tourism businesses. New Zealand also has significant legacy technology: terrestrial connectivity has restricted bandwidth (ADSL), limited competition and conveniently established duopoly pricing that suits suppliers in our small and geographically challenging market. Geographic and population density considerations that have elevated prices may one day fall victim to the currently expensive alternatives-for example satellite systems. Satellite systems remain expensive and are unlikely to replace terrestrial networks in the short to medium term (current satellite bandwidth is at best message-orientated with costs of the order of $US1 per minute). Mobile wireless currently offers approximately 2 Mb per second for fixed units and about 0.4 Mb per second for mobile units. Wireless technologies require bandwidth – a scarce global resource that is only reusable if interference can be avoided. The politics of bandwidth are also global - like the politics of air transport. A mobile network that is truly global must solve the problems of bandwidth – availability, its ‘ownership’ and pricing.For the future:Imagine global roaming using commoditisedsatellite access at streaming 4G (>>20Mb/sec) bandwidth! Further imagine that 4G bandwidth represents the lower limit of service quality. The political issues of interconnection are overcome and price competition becomes global with many competing providers. Demand and technological innovation for wireless or extended terrestrial high-speed connectivity (communities, downtown, etc) will steadily reduce costs and improve capabilities. Improved technologies and current willingness for public sector investment or subsidisation of services outside the main centres will, in the future, make steady improvements in the accessibility of high-speed telecommunications to schools, small rural communities, farms and remote tourism providers – about 25% of the population. One thing is sure, sophisticated tourists from Germany or the UK won’t tolerate poor broadband or the lack of wireless internet connection, they will simply do business else where or tell others about poor the countries poor infrastructure.References:Ministry of Economic Development (2001) Comparative Net Readiness Results: New Zealand Industries.Accessed on 10th March 2010 at http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/MultipageDocumentPage____16457.aspxOECD (2010) Broadband Portal.Accessed on the 10th March at http://www.oecd.org/document/54/0,3343,en_2649_34225_38690102_1_1_1_1,00.html
- #11 Driver Explained:It will come as no surprise to learn that New Zealanders have a very strong opinion of themselves-a can-do attitude, punches above its weight, adventurous and highly regarded by other nationalities. On the other hand there are indications of narrowness-heavy reliance on sporting success for a sense of national identity and a level of modesty or perhaps honesty - sometimes known as the tall poppy syndrome: we do not see ourselves as being the smartest and most innovative of workers. New Zealand’s isolation has not prevented reasonable performances amongst its OECD peers (KEA2009).Key results from the survey suggest: New Zealanders don’t think New Zealand is old fashionedNew Zealanders don’t think New Zealand is like Britain 48.8% of New Zealanders think New Zealand is an environmentally conscious country56.3% of New Zealanders think New Zealand is a great place to retireFor the futureReferences:KEA (2009) What does it mean to be Kiwi- Kiwi Identity Survey. Accessed on the 10th April 2010 at http://www.keanewzealand.com/sites/default/files/survey.pdf
- #12 Driver explained: Defining a national identity is not simple (Ministry of Social Development 2009) New Zealand is a diverse nation, made up of many cultural groups, with many different customs and traditions. While people may describe themselves as “New Zealanders”, how they define their “New Zealand-ness” will vary from person to person. For example, some people might see a New Zealand identity in aspects of New Zealand history or in New Zealand achievements in sporting, artistic or other endeavours, while others might see it through a sense of national characteristics or traits, or through national symbols and icons. Mäori culture may form one aspect of national identity, since it is both unique to New Zealand and a part of our identity in the outside world. Cultural identity is an important contributor to people’s wellbeing. Identifying with a particular culture makes people feel they belong and gives them a sense of security. It also provides access to social networks, which provide support and shared values and aspirations. Social networks can help to break down barriers and build a sense of trust between people. However, strong cultural identity expressed in the wrong way can contribute to barriers between groups. An established cultural identity has also been linked with positive outcomes in areas such as health and education. Mäori language is a central component of Mäori culture, and an important aspect of participation and identity. It also forms part of the broader cultural identity and heritage of New Zealand. In 1987, the Mäori language was recognised as an official New Zealand language. Almost one-quarter of all Mäori (24 per cent, or 131,600 people) reported in the 2006 Census they could hold a conversation in Mäori about everyday things. Of the 157,100 people (or 4 per cent of the total New Zealand population) who could speak Mäori in 2006, 84 per cent were Mäori. Too New Zealand, rugby is the symbol of national identity which is the cornerstone of conversations, stories, life and culture and some would say there isn’t anything else. The All Blacks is New Zealand number one brand and it is the infamousKaMate haka that symbolises what New Zealand is. For the future:In a fast paced and global world, national identity and culture say what you are and distinguish you from others. However at the same time in a fluid society, the ethnic mix of nations changes which reshapes what a country is. For example, participation in rugby faces many challenges as the number one sport of participation due increased choice and new immigrants. One of the key issues that might change in the future, like other commonwealth countries is the relationship with the United Kingdom and whether New Zealand should be a republic (Holden 2008)? References:Holden, L (2008) The Republican Handbook. www.publishme.co.nzMinistry of Social Development (2009) Cultural Identity. Accessed on 25th March 2010 at http://www.socialreport.msd.govt.nz/cultural-identity/Yeoman, I (2010) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism. Channelview, Bristol.
- #13 Driver explained:There have been numerous attempts since the 1980s to make improvements to regulatory processes. The problem is that politicians have poor incentives; they must get re-elected, and the political cycle is short. Politicians are vulnerable to interest group pressure, and at times invite that pressure by pandering to various interest groups in search of votes. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact of life in a democracy”(Hide 2010).Hides (2010) politics shares an ideology with Prof Frank Furedi (2002), author of the ‘Culture of Fear’, who writes that as society gets richer it creates more regulation as safety becomes a paramount driver. The politics of society has moved from social change to individual issues, in which government tells you what to do, whether it is ‘what you can eat’, ‘what you can drink’ or ‘we recommend you don’t do this’. Furedi (2002) is not advocating that the issues of climate change and healthy eating shouldn’t be debated and advice offered, just that government across the world are focusing on ‘you and how you live your life’ at a very micro level, all of which creates regulation and adverse risk society. This is the motivation of the ACT Party under Roger Hide, a political agenda based upon less regulation and less state intervention. A viewpoint, which is the nature of politics. However no man is an island in the present world order: considerable legislative obligations arise from the World Health Organisation, the International LabourOrganisation, the World Trade Organisation, International Air Transport Authority, the Stockholm Convention and so on and so on. The concepts of sovereignty are steadily being eroded by mandatory ratification of global decisions and there is no hint of this trend declining. Rapid and pervasive communications also establish ‘fashionable patterns’ at personal and community level. Although the correlation seems rather weak at times, Western countries also engender the perception of sensitivity to trade or aid associations with those exhibiting indifferent regard to the human rights of others. For the future:Extrapolation of what occurs between European Union member states is a possibility for an increasingly regulated New Zealand and the world. The consequences of opting out of global regulations-particularly for small nations such as ours-would become increasingly disadvantageous in terms of trade and travel.References: Hide, R (2010) published by Rodney Hide at 3:25pm on 13 Apr 2010. Accessed on the 21st April at http://www.act.org.nz/news/regulatory-responsibility-billFuredi, F (2002) Culture of Fear, Continuum. LondonYeoman, I (2008) Tomorrows Tourist. Elsevier. Oxford.
- #14 Driver explained:The World Economic Forum blithely recommends a course of action that may be desirable but likely lies beyond the capacity of New Zealand in the short to medium term. Innovation capacity calls for a greater interest in and application of science and engineering - examples of which can be found in fledgeling” incubators” in the major centres. Infrastructure (broadband, rating, knowledge facilities-universities and research institutes) are problematic in the short term as the revenue to do so is not available and government debt levels are rising in support of “business as usual”. The higher rankings at New Zealand has secured in health and education and government institutions are exemplary but they do not contribute directly to GDP. The two areas where New Zealand’s global competitiveness has exemplary ratings are in labour market efficiency and financial market sophistication. Historically, New Zealand’s labour market reflected the practices of the United Kingdom and Australia-heavily unionised, highly regulated and inflexible. Since the economic restructuring of 1984, labour markets have slowly trended towards less regulation with an oscillating bias in favour of the employer and the employee. Financial market sophistication has arisen primarily from a laissez-faire approach by government. This approach attracts criticism for its sclerosis in providing sufficient resources to regulatory bodies such as the Commerce Commission, the Serious Fraud Office and the Securities Commission. Whereas transgressions are dealt with rapidly in overseas jurisdictions such as the United States, similar transgressions in New Zealand may take years to reach the courts and provide relief to those disadvantaged by this lack of enforcement or regulatory capacity. The financial crisis of 2008 highlights many of these concerns.In the areas of technological readiness, business sophistication and innovation the remaining factor of market size exerts its influence. In a report to the Ministry of Economic Development, University of Otago (2006) found that many small and medium-sized businesses eschewed export readiness because shareholder aspirations could be satisfied from moderate growth in a relatively risk-free manner from trading in the local marketplace. Export readiness provides those who seek it with the incentive to improve the sophistication of their business and production methodologies. The tourism industry relies upon the export market for approximately 45% of its seasonal opportunity and as mentioned earlier, is significantly more technologically prepared than other sectors. For the future:There is a tension between this driver and its counterpart “nothing is sacred”. The conjunction of a small market, naïve un-sophistication, under resourced regulatory authorities and a pressing need for greater government income to correct these disadvantages may lead to a future where previously unpalatable alternatives are placed before the public. The question for the future is whether a significant shift in priority towards GDP enhancing activities will be resisted because of the threats they pose to our current, relatively comfortable, lifestyle.Efficient infrastructure coupled with more pervasive use of technology and intellectual property production of the possibilities that would also assist tourism. As mentioned in previous drivers, with the theoretical efficiency tourism’s infrastructure was achieved by the elimination of seasonality, the overall efficiency improvement would be about 40 percent and improve New Zealand’s GDP by about five or six percent (based on TSA 2009).References:Ministry of Economic Development (2006) COMET Accelerator Project Report, http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/MultipageDocumentTOC____23758.aspxStatistics New Zealand (2009) Tourism Satellite Account. Accessed on the 1st April at http://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/analytical-reports/tourism-satellite-account-2009.aspxWorld Economic Forum. (2010). The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010. Accessed on 1st April at http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf.
- #15 Driver explained:The New Zealand governments proposal to allow mining in conversation land, from areas on the Great Barrier Island to Abel Tasman National park (Brownlee & Wilkinson 2010) is a debate and a fact that is happening around the world, whether it is Alaska and oil or a Donald Trump golf course and sand dunes in Aberdeenshire. This is an example that nothing is scared and futures are contested. Gain without pain seldom occurs! The parallel of California’s predicament (Young 2009) is the current situation facing New Zealand’s government in 2010-new revenues are needed to satisfy the future needs of the electorate. However, the electorate does not wish to sacrifice the generous intergenerational inequities that have arisen from a tax system that has principally been driven by fiscal drag. Examples of sacred cows abound: an abhorrence of capital gain taxation on personal property investments, free health care, a liveable superannuation, static consumption taxation, saving incentives, greater energy availability without altering the conservation estate and invisible mineral extraction.For the future:A quandary for the future will be the tension between those who are earning and paying taxes and those who are not. Will their values be the same? Will the balance of the voter power reside with those responsible for earning or will it be with those principally consuming? The answers to these questions will shape the future of tourism as the principal driver for inbound tourism is the diversity and ease of access to our landscapes. Can the public estate simultaneously satisfy the needs of our visitors, ardent conservationists and mineral extractors?ReferencesYoung, S (2009) Schwarzenegger Would Close 220 State Parks To Cut Deficit. Accessed on the 12th April at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/29/schwarzenegger-would-clos_n_208941.htmlBrownlee, G & Wilkinson, K (2010) Time to Discuss Maximising our Mineral Potential. Accessed on 14th April at http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/time+discuss+maximising+our+mineral+potential
- #16 Driver explained:The apocalyptic impact of a severe earthquake is hardly the stuff of fiction for New Zealanders. Chile suffered an 8.8 magnitude earthquake on February 27th 2010 and high severities have been no strangers to New Zealand in our geological history. Records dating from the 1840s show that, on average, New Zealand can expect several magnitude 6 earthquakes every year, one magnitude 7 every 10 years, and an 8 every century. Large earthquakes are not evenly spaced, and they sometimes arrive in bunches (GNS 2010). The earthquake is also a metaphor for a low probability, high severity event that might affect the future of tourism in New Zealand. Unless a high severity earthquake (magnitude 6 or more) affects a major visitor centre or transport corridor (e.g. Fiordland Lakes District), such an event is unlikely to have a long-lasting impact on visitor preferences. Of course contingency plans, available relief resources and corridor diversity help to assuage the effects of a serious earthquake, as does the design and construction of critical infrastructure such as bridges and buildings. There are also other low probability but high severity events; pandemics, volcanic eruption (and lahars), tsunamis, hurricanes and meteor strikes being examples of natural phenomena that have the capacity to inflict great harm at both local and regional level. Mt Tarawera (1886) and the TangiwaiLahar (1953) are modern examples of natural events that claimed many hundreds of travelers' lives. A modern-day Tarawera could affect the future of tourism (over 1.5 million visitors annually) in Rotorua for a decade. For the future:Identification of possible low probability but high impact events that might affect the future of tourism in New Zealand require linkage to key visitor centers and corridors so that impacts in excess of what would be suffered by local residents can also be considered. References:GNS (2010). EarthquakeFrequency Accessed on 20th April at http://www.gns.cri.nz/what/earthact/earthquakes/earthquakefaq.html#2