This presentation created and addressed by Ana Fornells (OECC) in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
COP 21 and Spanish position on climate agreements (BC3 Summer School _July 2015)
1. THE CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS: WHERE WE ARE
THE CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL
NEGOTIATIONS: WHERE WE ARE
2. THE CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS: WHERE WE ARE
THE CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL
NEGOTIATIONS: WHERE WE ARE
Outline
1. The United Nations System for the climate change negotiations:
How it works & main milestones
2. The future climate change regime:
The importance of the Climate Paris Summit in December 2015
3. Main challenges and opportunities
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1. The United Nations System for the climate
change negotiations:
How it works and main milestones
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There are also many other international Organizations & Fora within and outside
UN dealing with climate change
International Process: Climate Change
United Nations
Funds: GEF,
AF, GCF, etc
UNFCCC
& KP
Assessment
Finance for developing
countries
Convention &
Kyoto Protocol
IPCC
UNEP WMO
The COP (Conference of the Parties) is the supreme body of the UNFCCC, all countries
that are Parties to the UNFCCC Convention (195 now) are represented at the COP.
The COP meets annually (technical and ministerial level) to review the implementation of the
Convention and takes the necessary decisions to promote its effective implementation,
including institutional and administrative arrangements.
Decisions under the UNFCCC are taken by consensus ๏ Multilateral country driven process
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A little bit of historyโฆ
๏ 1988, Toronto: International Panel on Climate Change established (IPCC)
๏ 1992, Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit: United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other important environmental international
Conventions (Biodiversity and Desertification).
๏ 1997, Kyoto (COP 3): The Kyoto Protocol is adopted (only commitments for
developed countries for the 2008-2012 period)
1998-2001: Kyoto Protocol Rules adopted
๏ Since 2007- until now: different meetings and formats of discussions for negotiating
the future climate change regime have taken place
๏ 2009, Copenhagen (COP15) : ๏
๏ 2011, Durban (COP17): new group, mandate & schedule for the negotiation
of a โGlobal Climate Change Agreementโ in 2015, Paris (COP 21)
(in the meanwhile, in 2012 amendments for a 2nd commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol for 2013-2020 were agreed)
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The UNFCCC (1992)
The ultimate objective of this Convention (Article 2) and
any related legal instruments that the Conference of the
Parties may adopt is โto achieve, in accordance with the
relevant provisions of the Convention, the stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate systemโ.
Such a level should be achieved within a time frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner.
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All Parties to the UNFCCC (in the case of developing countries
in accordance with its respective capabilities and the level of
international support received), should:
1. Gather and share information on GHG, national policies
and best practices
2. Launch national strategies for addressing GHG emissions
and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of
financial and technological support to developing countries
3. Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of
climate change
MORE INFO http://unfccc.int/national_reports/items/1408.php
The UNFCCC
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Annex I Parties (Countries): committed to
reducing greenhouse-gas
emissions
Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Croatia, Demark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland,
Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lichtenstein,
Lithuania, Luxemburg, Monaco,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Romania ,Russian
Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, UK,
USA, and European Community
Annex II Parties (Coutries): additional
special obligations: to provide financial
resources and facilitate technology transfer
to developing countries
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Canada, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
Luxemburg, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, UK, USA, and European
Community
Non-Annex I Parties (Countries)
(without historic responsibility for carbon pollution)
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda,
Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh,
Barbados, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon,
Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China,
Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cรดte
dโIvoire, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Peoplesโ Republic of Korea,
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican
Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada,
Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India,
Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Jamaica, Jordan,
Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lao Peoplesโ
Democratic Republic, , Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya,
Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall
Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldova,
Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru,
Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Oman, Pakistan, Palau,
Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Qatar,
Republic of Korea, Rwanda, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and
Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro,
Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South
Africa, Sri Lanka, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent
and the Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Syrian Arab
Republic, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga,
Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uganda, United
Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela, Viet
Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
The UNFCCC Annexes
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The Convention was the first historic step in global
effort to halt the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.
However, it lacked specific quantitative targets and firm
timelines for achieving tangible emission reductions.
So Parties to the Convention felt a need to strengthen the
commitments and to build on the momentum createdโฆ
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The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
๏ผ 1st International Treaty which includes quantitative legally
binding commitments (for developed countries) to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
๏ผ It implements the objective of the UNFCCC and it is based
on one of its principles โcommon but differentiated
responsibilitiesโ๏ it puts the obligation to reduce
emissions on developed countries on the basis that they
were historically responsible for the levels of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere
๏ผ It includes a rigorous measuring and compliance
system 10
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The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
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1st Commitment period (2008-2012)
โข Developed countries committed to reducing emissions of the six
greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, HFC, PF, SF6) by at least 5% compared
to the 1990 levels (European Union by 8%)
โข Limited participation
- USA does not ratify the KP
- Emerging economies donโt have commitments under the KP
2nd Commitment period (2013-2020)
โข Even more limited participation (countries with commitments under the KP2
represent only 15% of the global emissions)
โข EU has committed to reducing its GHG by at least 20% compared to 1990
levels
โข The USA is still not in, and some other countries get out or do not commit to
specific quantified commitments (Canada, Japan, Rusia and New Zeland)
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aรฑo base1990
- 8% Uniรณn Europea
- 8% Liechtenstein, Mรณnaco,
Rep. Checa, Bulgaria,
Eslovaquia, Eslovenia,
Estonia, Letonia, Lituania
- 7% Estados Unidos
-6% Japรณn, Canadรก,
Hungrรญa, Polonia
- 5% Croacia
0% Rusia, Ucrania,
Nueva Zelanda
1% Noruega
8% Australia
10% Islandia
Developed Countries European Union
- 28 % Luxemburgo
- 21 % Alemania
- 21 % Dinamarca
- 13 % Austria
- 12,5% Reino Unido
- 7,5% Bรฉlgica
- 6 % Paรญses Bajos
0 % Finlandia
0 % Francia
+ 4 % Suecia
+ 6,5% Italia
+13 % Irlanda
+15 % Espaรฑa
+25 % Grecia
+28 % Portugal28
The Kyoto Protocol
(1st commitment period)
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Intergubernamental Pannel on Climate Chnage (IPCC)
(1988)
UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC)
(1992)
Kioto Protocol (KP)
(1997)
1st commitment period: 2008-2012
2nd commitment period: 2013-2020
Nowdays:
195 countries negotiating the future climate regime (post-2020)
(2015 Paris Climate Summit)
CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS MAIN MILESTONS
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The IPCC
(Intergouvernamental Pannel on Climate Change)
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โข The IPCC mainโs task is to review and assess the most recent
scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced
worldwide relevant to climate change.
โข The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does the work
of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. The IPCC bases its
assessment on published scientific literature, which includes peer-
reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources.
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The IPCC
(Intergouvernamental Pannel on Climate Change)
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The IPCC work is shared among three Working Groups:
๏ง Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate
system and climate change.
๏ง Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and
natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of
climate change, and options for adapting to it.
๏ง Working Group III (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change
through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities
that remove them from the atmosphere.
The latest and 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC was presented in 2014.
It consists of the 3 Working Group (WG) reports and a Synthesis Report (SYR)
which includes a summary for policy makers
๏ http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
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๏ผ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and, since the
1950s, many observed changes are unprecedented over
decades to millennia.
๏ผ The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of
snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the
concentrations of GHG have increased
๏ผ Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer
at the Earthโs surface than any preceding decade since 1850
๏ Human influence on the climate system is clear, and
recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the
highest in history.
The IPCC
(Key messages and findings from 5th Report)
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Evolution of Greenhouse Gas (CO2, CH4, N2O)
concentrations in the atmosphere
From the 5th IPCC Report
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
land & ocean surface temperature
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
sea level
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
Andโฆ.ocean acidification, lost of biodiversity, species facing increased
extinction, etc.
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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From the 5th IPCC Report
9
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2. The Future Climate Change Regime:
The importance of the Paris Climate Summit
(Dec. 2015)
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Area proportional to historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion
(1900-1999)
Source: World Research Institute
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Breakdown of Total World Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
2011
Source: World Research Institute 2014.
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
COP 18
Doha
COP 19
Warsaw
COP 20
Lima
COP 21
Parรญs
COP 26
UN Event
Science IPCC AR5
Kyoto Protocol II
Ratification
New Global
Agreement
2021
COP 17
Durban
2011
Durban Platform
Negotiations of the Paris Agreement:
Schedule
2009
COP 15
๏ ๏
Copenhague
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Complex negotiating context
โข Complexity of the negotiations per se
โข Strong economic and commercial implications
โข 195 countries to agree
โข Economic and financial crisis has limited its evolution
โข Multitude of parallel processes and initiatives: MEF, G7-
G20; UN General Assembly, etc
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UNFCCC Structure
UNFCCC (since 1992)
Conference of Parties - COP
Subsidiary Body for
Scientific and Technological Advice
(SBSTA)
Subsidiary Body for
Implementation
(SBI)
UNFCCC Secretariat
Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform (ADP)
(where the Future Climate Regime is being negotiated)
Kyoto Protocol (commitment periods: 2008-2012/2013-2020)
Conference of parties Serving as meeting of Parties - CMP
Several institutions and instruments put in place
under the UNFCCC
Several institutions and instruments put in place
under the KP
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Negotiations of the Future Global Agreement:
The Durban Platform Group
โข Agreed in 2011 in Durban (South Africa)
โข Formal framework for the negotiation of the post 2020
international climate change regime
โ Adoption in 2015: Paris
โ Enter into force in 2020
โ A protocol, a legal instrument or an agreed outcome with
legal force
โข Under the Convention
โข Applicable to all
โข Two workstreams:
โ Pre 2020 mitigation ambition
โ Post 2020 Global Agreement
โข Pillars of the Agreement: Mitigation, Adaptation, Finance,
Technology, Capacity building and Transparency of action
and support.
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Outcomes from the negotiating process in
2012, 2013, 2014 Climate Summits
๏ 2ยบC goal reinforced and reflected in all texts and decisions adopted
๏ Financial commitments from developed countries to developing countries
to support climate change projects and activities (both for adaptation and
mitigation) as well as technology transfer and capacity building activities
๏ Establishement of the Green Climate Fund http://news.gcfund.org/
๏ Reinforcement of the Measuring, Reporting and Verification System
for Mitigation and Adaptation policies & measures and also regarding support
provided to developing countries
๏ New (and old) instruments and tools discussed and/or established:
future of carbon markets, REDD+ Mechanism, NAMAs, etc
๏ Several new institutions established to help the process and the
UNFCCC Secretariat:
โข The International Technology Mechanism
โข The Adaptation Committee
โข The Standing Committee on Finance
โข The Green Climate Fund
โข Others under discussion: Loss and Damage international mechanism
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Institutions established under UNFCCC
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Negotiating process in 2015 (1)
1. (From 2014, Lima Climate Summit)๏ Presentation of the
โcontributionsโ to the Agreement in 2015
๏ Countries to present their โintended national determined contributionโ
to the Future Global Agreementโ, well in advance of Paris
(during the 1st quarter for those in a position to do so)
โข Ensures mitigation component: adaptation is optional
โข These contributions should be presented in a way that allows
them to be clear, transparent, comparable and quantifiable.
โข Developed countries should support developing countries
in preparing them
๏ Assessment of these contributions (= potential future commitments):
Are they enough?
โข Synthesis of their aggregate effect to be prepared by UNFCCC
and published in in UNFCCC website (1st October 2015)
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2. Negotiating text
๏ Countries working on a draft text right now in Bonn (Germany)
โข 86 pages long
โข Compilation of all options from countries proposal
โ How to deal with it during the Bonn session and next
sessions foreseen before the Climate Summit in Paris
โ What should be decided in Paris and what later?
๏ Challenges
โข Working on the text with 195 Parties
โข Identifying the clear options
โข Interaction at the highest levels:
โ Ministers?
โ Heads of State?
Negotiating process in 2015 (2)
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Negotiating process in 2015 (1)
3. โContributionsโ to the Agreement in 2015
๏ So far, 45 contributions (INDCs) presented by:
๏ง Switzerland
๏ง European Union
๏ง Norway
๏ง Mexico
๏ง USA
๏ง Gabon
๏ง Russia
๏ง Liechtensten
๏ง Andorra
๏ง Canada
๏ Need for major economies to come forward
๏ More info:
http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx
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โข EU Climate and Energy Framework for 2030
โ Greenhouse Gas emission reductions objective of, at
least, 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels
๏ The EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework also
includes two additional european objectives:
โข Renewable Energies objective: 27%
โข Energy Efficiency improvement objective: 27%
52
The EU Contribution to the Paris Agreement
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โข USA
โ Intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its greenhouse gas
emissions by 26-28% below its 2005 levels in 2025, and to make best
efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%
โข CHINA
โ To achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to
peak early;
โ To lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level by 2030;
โ To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030;
and
โ To increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level by 2030
โข MEXICO
โ To reduce โunconditionallyโ 25% of its greenhouse gas and short lived
climate pollutant emissions (below BAU) for the year 2030 (๏ implies a
reduction of 22% of GHG)
โ This commtiment could increase up to a 40% in a conditional manner,
subject to a global agreement addressing important topics (carbon price,
technical cooperation, access to financial resources and technology transfer)
โข RUSSIA
โ Limiting anthropogenic greenhouse gases to 70-75% of 1990 levels by
the year 2030, subject to the maximum possible account of absorbing
capacity forests
52
Other Parties Contributions to the Paris
Agreement
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3. Main Challenges and Opportunities
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Challenges (right now)
โข The nature of countriesโ contributions to the Future Global
Agreement not clearly specified ๏ different formats ๏ will make them
hard to be compared and assessed.
โข Processes for monitoring, reporting and verification of these
contributions will also have to be agreed.
โข The Agreementโs legal form.
โข Issues of fairness and equity need to be addressed, acknowledging
that developed countries have a greater historical responsibility for
climate change and stronger capabilities for taking action but also
acknowledging the evolving responsibilities and capabilities of countries.
โข A flexible and long lasting agreement
โข Continued engagement with stakeholders worldwide is needed to
achieve the transformations of the economies and energy systems
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Opportunites
โข Major win-wins for society, the environment and the economy
๏ High GHG emissions are an indicator of poor management; The
more GHG you produce the less efficient and less profitable you are
in your business, your farm, or your home
โข Globally non-fossil energy sources can help to address energy
needs
โข Sustainable management and improved resources use can
increase returns
โข International Climate Finance
๏ New Business Opportunities
๏ Deployment of Green Technologies
โข Technical cooperation with third countries: North-South, South-
South, Triangular and Regional Cooperation needed
โข Implication of all stakeholders
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Developed countries pledge:
โ Short term: UP to $30 billion 2010โ2012 (Fast Start
Financing)
โ Long term: Jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by
2020 (variety of public, private, bilateral, multilateral,
and โalternativeโ sources)
Green Climate Fund:
๏ Will channel a significant share of climate finance
Climate Finance
Commitments
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Climate Finance
FLOWS
Climate change projects and activities
in DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(energy, transport, water, waste, forestry, etc)
PRIVATE
MULTILATERAL
World Bank,
ADB etc
BILATERAL
within the context of
UNFCCC
DOMESTIC
ALLOCATIONS
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More information:
http://www3.unfccc.int/pls/apex/f?p=116:1:3633187008393738
http://www.climatefundsupdate.org/the-funds
Climate Finance
50. THE CLIMATE CHANGE INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS: WHERE WE ARE
THANKS A LOT!!!!!
๏ Ministerio de Agricultura Alimentaciรณn y Medio Ambiente/Cambio Climรกtico:
http://www.magrama.gob.es/es/cambio-climatico/temas/
๏ EU Climate Action
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/index_en.htm
๏ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/