Land-based Sector in Indonesia INDC

1. Lessons Learnt From Unilateral Process Of Reducing Emissions
From Land-based Sector In Indonesia:
Land-based Sector in Indonesia INDC
Dr. Medrilzam
Deputy Director for Forest Economy and Management
Ministry of National Development Planning/
National Development Planning Board (BAPPENAS)
Presented at COP 21 UNFCCC, Paris, at the Session
Land and Forest Governance at Multiple Levels in Supporting
Climate-change mitigation: Lessons learned from the tropics
Indonesia Pavilion, 3 December 2015, 15.00-17.00

2. What’s the rational behind these numbers?
UNCONDITIONALITIES
CONDITIONALITIES:
What is the share of
land-based sector in
the future emission
reduction ??

3. .
Welfare
C02
EmissionEconomy
Land Use Energy
Trade offs
Policies
?
Waste
Industry Transportation
Population
Poverty Level
Indonesia INDC was built based on System Dynamics approach where concepts
of scarcities, delays, feedbacks and interdependency among 5 sectors (land-
based, Enegry, Transportation, Industry and Waste) with economy and
population applied.

4. Relationship between RAN-GRK and I-INDC
RAN GRK
2010-2020
Review process of
RAN - GRK
(Jan-Aug 2015)
UPDATED
RAN - GRK
2010-20xx
Indonesia
INDC
New National Mid-Term
Development Plan
2015-2019
Assessments of new
baseline and future
policy intervention
Indonesia INDC
Submission to
UNFCCC
Revised
Presidential
Regulation on
RAN-GRK
Current RAN GRK Process Output Decisions
Technocratic
Process
Political
Process

5. RAN GRK Review under Article 9, Presidential Regulation No 61/2011
5
Objectives:
1. Adjust previous RAN GRK Policies with RPJMN 2015-2019.
2. Review emission progress from 2010-2014.
3. Review previous baseline submitted under Second National
Communication. SNC emission baseline is over-estimate
compare to emission inventory (see the graph).
4. Develop new emission reduction projection scenarios for post
2020 based on the new developed baseline.
5. Fulfill obligation for Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution (INDC) submission to UNFCCC.
Materials reviewed:
1. Data, approach and methodology to develop baseline
emission and projections;
2. Emission reduction target for each sector (land-based,
energy based, and waste);
3. Mitigation policies under RPJMN 2015 – 2019;
4. Future Scenarios for post 2020.
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Comparison SNC Emission Baseline vs Emission
Inventory 2000-2012 (draft Biennial Update
Report-BUR) – thousand ton CO2e
Baseline Emission SNC (est trajectori) draft BUR
Huge Gap

6. -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Comparison between Baseline BAU SNC vs Baseline RANGRK Review/ INDC vs BUR
(thousands ton CO2e)
Baseline Kaji Ulang BAU SNC with Peat Fire Historical Emissions BUR

7. 0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Indonesia Emission Baseline: 2000-2030 (Result of RAN GRK Review)
(thousands ton CO2e)
Energi dan transportasi IPPU Limbah AFOLU (no peat) Peat Dekomposisi Peat Fire
2.881 Gton CO2e
in 2030 as stated in
INDC

8. SHIFT OF EMISSION SOURCES
IPPU
3%
Energy
46%
Waste
10%
Afolu (no peat)
17%
Peat
Decomposition
16%
Peat Fire
8%
Share Baseline Emission in 2020
IPPU
3%
Energy
50%
Waste
10%
Afolu (no peat)
13%
Peat
Decomposition
10%
Peat Fire
14%
Share Baseline Emission in 2030
IPPU
3%
Energy
29%
Waste
7%Afolu (no
peat)
19%
Peat
Decompositio
n
19%
Peat Fire
23%
Share Baseline Emission in 2010
Emission from energy sector will supersede the land based emission in the future 
indicate that Indonesia economy will move toward industrial countries.

9. Policy exercises based on:
RPJMN 2015-2019 and 2 Policies Scenarios (Fair and Ambitious) for 2020-2030
SEKTOR MEASURES
1. LAND BASED (FOREST, PEAT
AND AGRICULTURES)
• Forest fire prevention measures
• Tree planting program
• Moratorium issuing any new permits in primary forest and peatland areas, which covers 34% of
Indonesian territory.
• More stringent regulations and enforcement actions to reduce peat fires and the subsequent
conversion of peatlands to agriculture uses
• Sustainable agriculture practices
2. ENERGY BASED
(TRANSPORTATION AND
ENERGY)
• Clean coal technology
• Increase of the use of gas powered generation
• Renewable energy goals
• Energy intensity to improve by 1% per year
• A reduction in fossil fuel subsidies
• Public transport measures
• Efficiency standards for automobiles to reflect world standards
• Fuel-switching from gasoline to natural gas/CNG (the cooperation between Min of Transport, Min
of Industry, MEMR)
• Biofuel use will be increased in diesel fuel and in gasoline
3. IPPU optimum ratio for clinker in the cement industry
4. WASTE Methane capture from landfills in urban area by 2030 and the adoption of better waste management
practices.

10. Baseline Simulation Result
10
• Baseline emission in 2020 decrease from 2.94 Giga ton CO2e to 1.79 Giga ton CO2e.
• If emission reduction will be capped in 26% in 2020, hence emission reduction target shoud be
reduced from 765 mio ton CO2e (Perpres 61/2011) to 465.6 juta mio CO2e (Review RAN GRK result)
* Perhitungan tanggal 6 November 2015

11. -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Baseline Emission Indonesia vs RPJMN+2 Policy Scenarios
(in 000 ton CO2e)
Baseline BAU Total Emisi Baseline Total Emisi Skenario Fair Baseline Total Emisi Skenario Ambisius
Fair Scenario: Emission reduction 832 Mton CO2e
or about 29 % of baseline 2030
Ambitious: Emission reduction
1,19 Giga ton CO2e
or about 41 % of baseline 2030

12. -
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
1,500,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emission Scenario in AFOLU (include Peat)
In thousand ton CO2e
Baseline BAU Sektor AFOLU Baseline Emisi AFOLU Skenario Fair Baseline Emisi AFOLU Skenario Ambisius
Fair Scenaio: Emission
reduction 545 mio ton
CO2e
Ambitious
Scenario :
Emission 666
juta mio CO2e

13. Calculation Peat and Forest Fires under INDC:
Peat Fires:
• Pattern of historical fires recorded from 2000-2012 (BUR version Jan 2015).
• El-nino cycle (8 years).
Land Fires:
Fires from mineral soil refer to the change of land cover in forest areas:
• Primary forest to secondary forest.
• Secondary forest to Plantation Forest.
• Primary forest to Plantation forest.

14. Peat Fire Structure in INDC:

15. -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emission Peat Fire
(in thousand ton CO2e)
Baseline BAU Emisi Peat Fire Baseline Emisi Peat Fire Skenario Fair Baseline Emisi Peat Fire Skenario Ambisius
Fair Scenario: Emission
reduction 122 mio ton
CO2e
Ambitious
Scenario :
Emission 142
mio ton CO2e
Note: Peak Peat Fire in 2014, compare to actual in 2015.

16. Emission Reduction in Each Sector 2030
Fair Scenario in 2030 Ambisius Scenario in 2030
Amount (Mton CO2e) % Amount (Mton CO2e) %
Baseline 2.881 - 2.881 -
Emission Reduction:
Forest, Agriculture and Peat 545 19% 666 23.1%
Energy 253 8.8% 472 16.4%
IPPU 3 0.1% 6 0.2%
Waste 31 1.1% 48 1.7%
Total Emission Reduction 832 29% 1,192 41%
Based on 2 policy scenarios, simulation results indicate that emission reduction still rely upon on the land based
sector considering its low cost investment and no high technology applied. On the other side, delay in improving
capacity of renewable energy technology and energy efficiency still hamper emission reduction in Energy sector.
Hence, in this exercise, emission reduction in energy sector is still lower that the land based sector.

17. Summary:
• Indonesia still largely focus to reduce its emission reduction in the
future in Land-based sector, although it is expected that energy sector
contribution will be increasing significantly (if ambitious scenario
applied).
• Peat fires is difficult to predict; however Indonesia INDC has included
calculated baseline emission from peat fires and the impact of peat
fires emission reduction scenarios.
• This exercise will be used to formulate the new Presidential
Regulation replacing Perpres 61/2011.

18. Thank you for your attention
Further Contact:
Dr. Medrilzam
Medrilzam.Medrilzam@gmail.com
medril@bappenas.go.id