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Corporate Foresight: model applicable to SMEs as a tool for innovation-oriented planning
1. CORPORATE
FORESIGHT
model
applicable
to
SMEs
as
a
tool
for
innova?on-‐oriented
planning
Researcher:
Fernando
Ortega,
MBA,
DBA
(c)
UNIVERSITY
OF
LIMA
(PERU)
2. Fernando
Ortega
(Peru)
• Born in Lima (Peru).
• Training in Foresight at APEC Centre
of Technology Foresight (Thailand),
leaded by Dr. Ron Johnston) and at
former PREST Institute of
Manchester University (U.K.), leaded
by Dr. Denis Loveridge.
• Associated Professor and
Researcher at University of Lima
(Peru).
• International lecturer on
technological and social futures in
different Latin American countries.
3. Can
SMEs
use
foresight
for
their
planning
process
without
external
support?
Foresight
has
been
widely
used
by
large
corpora?ons
for
their
planning
processes
and
the
iden?fica?on
of
priori?es
for
innova?on.
However,
SMEs
have
not
been
using
foresight
due
to
the
high
costs
of
the
involved
consul?ng
services.
This
research
developed
by
the
University
of
Lima
(Peru)
proposes
a
simple
methodology
for
SMEs
execu?ves
to
perform
a
prospec?ve
full-‐process,
basically
using
the
MS
EXCEL
soSware
and
without
hiring
specialized
external
support.
8. DELPHI
METHOD
HIGH MEDIUM LOW HIGH MEDIUM LOW
ALREADY
HAPPENED
THIS
OR
NEXT
YEAR
2-‐3
YEARS
AHEAD
4-‐5
YEARS
AHEAD
6-‐7
YEARS
AHEAD
8-‐9
YEARS
AHEAD
10
YEARS
AHEAD
MORE
THAN
10
YEARS
AHEAD
NEVER
WILL
HAPPEN
IMPORTANCE
STATEMENTS
EXPERTISE
ON
THE
STATEMENT
POSSIBLE
DATE
OF
OCCURRENCE
OF
THE
EVENT
11. SCENARIOS
IDENTIFICATION
&
ASSESSMENT
SCENARIOS AXE
1 AXE
2 AXE
3 DESIRABILITY PROBABILITY GOVERNANCE
A + + +
B + + -‐
C + -‐ +
D + -‐ -‐
E -‐ + +
F -‐ + -‐
G -‐ -‐ +
H -‐ -‐ -‐
RANKING
OF
SCENARIOS
