Europe and Central Asia Regional Outlook

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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

The Europe and Central Asia region suffered a significant economic slowdown in 2012 as the region faced significant headwinds, including weak external demand, deleveraging by European banks, poor harvest and inflationary pressures. As a result, growth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012, compared with 5.6 percent in 2011 with a sharp slowdown in developing Europe and less severe adjustments among Commonwealth of Independent States.

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  • GEP 2010 Presentation
  • GEP 2010 Presentation
  • Europe and Central Asia Regional Outlook

    1. 1. 1Dilek AykutWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsEurope & Central AsiaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
    2. 2. Europe and Central Asias regionalgrowth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from5.6 percent in 2011.
    3. 3. Europe and Central Asias regionalgrowth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from5.6 percent in 2011.
    4. 4. Europe and Central Asias regionalgrowth fell to 2.7 percent in 2012 from5.6 percent in 2011.
    5. 5. Source: World Bank, Haver.Industrial production data suggest arebound in economic activity in the region-30-20-1001020302012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01KazakhstanRussiaSerbiaTurkeyUkraineEurope & Central AsiaIP Volume growth 3m/3m saar
    6. 6. Source: World Bank, Haver.Industrial production data suggest arebound in economic activity in the region-30-20-1001020302012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01KazakhstanRussiaSerbiaTurkeyUkraineEurope & Central AsiaIP Volume growth 3m/3m saar
    7. 7. Source: World Bank, Haver.Exports from the region have slowed downdespite the improved import demand-40-200204060802011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01ECA exportsDeveloping Countries ImportsHigh-income ImportsHigh Income Europe ImportsExport value growth 3m/3m saar
    8. 8. Source: World Bank, Haver.Exports from the region have slowed downdespite the improved import demand-40-200204060802011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01ECA exportsDeveloping Countries ImportsHigh-income ImportsHigh Income Europe ImportsExport value growth 3m/3m saar
    9. 9. Source: World Bank, Haver.Exports from the region have slowed downdespite the improved import demand-40-200204060802011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01ECA exportsDeveloping Countries ImportsHigh-income ImportsHigh Income Europe ImportsExport value growth 3m/3m saar
    10. 10. Source: World Bank, Haver.Exports from the region have slowed downdespite the improved import demand-40-200204060802011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01ECA exportsDeveloping Countries ImportsHigh-income ImportsHigh Income Europe ImportsExport value growth 3m/3m saar
    11. 11. Source: World Bank, Haver.Exports from the region have slowed downdespite the improved import demand-40-200204060802011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 2012M05 2012M09 2013M01ECA exportsDeveloping Countries ImportsHigh-income ImportsHigh Income Europe ImportsExport value growth 3m/3m saar
    12. 12. Region’s access to international debtmarkets has improved significantly12Source: World Bank; Dealogic.051015202530Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13Bank l endi ngBondEqui t y i ssuance$ billion
    13. 13. Region’s access to international debtmarkets has improved significantly13Source: World Bank; Dealogic.051015202530Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13Bank l endi ngBondEqui t y i ssuance$ billion
    14. 14. Region’s access to international debtmarkets has improved significantly14Source: World Bank; Dealogic.051015202530Jan-12 Mar -12 May-12 Jul -12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar -13Bank l endi ngBondEqui t y i ssuance$ billion
    15. 15. -10-8-6-4-20246810122000 2005 2010Developing Europe grows at potentialrate but output gap remains15Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)Output GapGDP growthPotential Output growthSource: World Bank.
    16. 16. -10-8-6-4-20246810122000 2005 2010Developing Europe grows at potentialrate but output gap remains16Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)Output GapGDP growthPotential Output growthSource: World Bank.
    17. 17. -101234562010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fProspects: rebound with increasingdifferentiation among countries17Annual GDP growth (%)Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent StatesSource: World Bank.
    18. 18. -101234562010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fProspects: rebound with increasingdifferentiation among countries18Annual GDP growth (%)Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent StatesSource: World Bank.
    19. 19. -101234562010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fProspects: rebound with increasingdifferentiation among countries19Annual GDP growth (%)Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent StatesSource: World Bank.
    20. 20. -101234562010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015fProspects: rebound with increasingdifferentiation among countries20Annual GDP growth (%)Central and Eastern EuropeCommonwealth of Independent StatesSource: World Bank.
    21. 21. 21Dilek AykutWorld BankJune 2013GlobalEconomicProspectsEurope & Central AsiaRegional Outlookhttp://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

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