Why don't we get the future right?

Why don’t we get the future right?Tom Stewart, System Concepts

Billy Connolly quotes
“there are two seasons in Scotland: June and Winter”
“there is no such thing as ‘bad’ weather, just the wrong clothes”
so maybe
“there is no such thing as bad predictions, just how we interpret them”

The telephone took off so rapidly that a statistician at Bell Telephone System forecasted that at the then current rate of increase, every woman in the United States would have to become a telephone operator!
Emma McNutt 1878,

AlmonStrowger

No, there are bad predictions
Edison’s Light Bulb- “good enough for our transatlantic friends ... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.” British Parliamentary Committee, 1878.
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.
“Very interesting Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.” Cambridge Aeronautics Professor, when shown Frank Whittle's plan for the jet engine.

Why our predictions fail
we overlook the obvious
technology changes, people don’t
metaphors are dangerous
form and function have fallen out.

Star Trek was unrealistic

Technology changes – people don’t
“...[there] has been great disorder in …Manchester …windows broken yearly and spoiled by lewd and disordered persons …playing … football in the streets”
The problem in Manchester with the banned activity of “ffotebale” in 1608.

“people need holes not drills”

Or do they
visual slide me with drills
wants are not the same as needs and do change
but I want drills!

Metaphors are dangerous

Telegraph ipad edition

Form and function have fallen out

Smaller is not always better
RIDE IN
RIDE ON
CARRY
TWO HAND
ONE HAND
ON
IN

the power of negative thinking

identify constraints & show stoppers

many suffer from...
“hardening of the categories”

pretend you have Super Powers
imagine what you would do if the constraints were lifted – remember the brick

then, evaluate, but…
... avoid Premature Evaluation!

RIPE approach to the next big thing
Research – put in the hard work
Identify constraints – know the box
Pretend you have superpowers to challenge assumptions and explore options
Evaluate – but not too early

Thank You!

Why don't we get the future right?

by System Concepts Ltd on May 04, 2011

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Why don’t we get the future right? — Presentation Transcript