UoPlymouth: Letting Our Achievements Speak (1mar13)


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Traditionally our technology has spoken for us, but these days the products have become so sophisticated that the technology is becoming imperceptible. With that step; our roles in them, the careers they present and the business opportunities all diminish. Out of sight is out of mind; and out of mind is de-prioritised.

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UoPlymouth: Letting Our Achievements Speak (1mar13)

  1. 1. 1 Title: Letting our Achievements Speak for Us  Abstract:  The Danger of - Letting our Achievements Speak for Us  Not for us the muddy puddle, the drafty damp hut, the hungry cold night. By exploiting the discoveries of our forefathers, our 21c world is full of wonderful things; I think we should all be happy as kings! Yet we are not. It is human nature to 'accept the background' as a given, and to complain about its limitations. So whilst our value should be recognised for our part in providing this wonderful environment, it is not. To the man/woman in the street, our achievements are miracles on a par with the miracle of life itself; pervasive and free. So as our products become more sophisticated and the technologies they depend on less visible; our roles in creating them become ever less valued, to the point where they have no value. Investment in them will fail, people will not chose them as careers, people will not be taught of them, advances will not be made in them ... and a return to an earlier, simpler life is inevitable. Whilst you don't need to know how grass grows, to grow grass; you can't make a smart-phone without knowledge. Technology has stopped speaking to the people, so it cannot speak for us. It is becoming a societal imperative, that we (scientists and engineers) develop our own public voice.  Context  1hr talk at The Centre for Robotics and Neural Systems (CNRS) at University of Plymouth, Devon, UK.  The CRNS has a regular seminar series inviting national and international speakers.  http://www.tech.plym.ac.uk/SOCCE/CRNS/ Pdf and Tube available at http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/
  2. 2. 2 Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r, ARM Ltd ian.phillips@arm.com Visiting Prof. at ... Contribution to Industry Award 2008 CRNS Seminar Uo.Plymouth 01mar13 1v1 Pdf and Tube available at http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/
  3. 3. 3 Our 21c World ...  Statistics ...  Population ~7,000,000,000  Growth rate ~2%pa  Life expectancy 60-80yr ... Mission: Celebrity, Leisure
  4. 4. 4 Electronic Systems are Everywhere ...  Entertainment, Amusement, Social ...  Important but not Vital  Very Personal; so greatly valued
  5. 5. 5 Electronic Systems are Everywhere ...  Security, Transport, Logistics, Financial, Energy, Trade, Communications, Health, Environment, Business ...  Vital: Personally, Environmentally and Economically  Largely Invisible; so are seldom personally valued!
  6. 6. 6 Source: Adapted from Morgan Stanley, Nov 2009 Electronic Systems Will BE Our Future  We and our Economies, will Depend On Them 100%...  Better Understand - where they come from!  Better Understand - our Businesses Involved in them!  Better Minimise - our Vulnerability to their Globalisation!
  7. 7. 7 Do Our Achievements Speak For Us ? ... Science + Engineering made the world we live in: Yet ... ... most people don’t see it, and have no idea what “we” do in it!
  8. 8. 8 The Science That Lets Us to Do ...  Electronics is the pinnacle of mankind’s ingenuity in the manipulation of matter ...  Enables us all to do such wonderful things!  Dependent on Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry  The measure of what humans can achieve by reusing the ingenuity of our predecessors ... “Standing on the shoulders of giants” (Isaac Newton)  Though it is very-very clever ...  It is not actually Magic!  It is not nearly as Magical as the Nature that surrounds us! “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from Magic!” (A.C.Clarke)
  9. 9. 9 The Science That Lets Us to Do ...  Electronics is the pinnacle of mankind’s ingenuity in the manipulation of matter ...  Enables us all to do such wonderful things!  Dependent on Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry  The measure of what humans can achieve by reusing the ingenuity of our predecessors ... “Standing on the shoulders of giants” (Isaac Newton)  Though it is very-very clever ...  It is not actually Magic!  It is not nearly as Magical as the Nature that surrounds us! “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from Magic!” (A.C.Clarke)
  10. 10. 10 The Threshold of Magic 1: Clarke: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.  Everybody has a threshold, beyond which observed Functionality is Indistinguishable From Magic1 !  Chemical Systems  Biological Systems  Economic Systems  Electronic Systems  The Incandescent Light: is the for most non-scientific, but well-educated people! ... We will ALL lose if we fail to explain the difference between Magic and Science to the Public! ... Our roles will not be recognised or valued; Teaching and Research will go; Tech. Jobs will follow. ... And Our Society will become dependent on Others.
  11. 11. 11 On the Shoulders of Giants...  What we do is laborious and precise and is based on the many generations of global Scientists, Physicists, Mathematicians, Chemists and Engineers that precede us.  Involves International Cooperation  Involves Large Teams Working Together  Is further enabled by Globalisation ...  International Contract Law  English as a Lingua-Franca  Containerisation  Standardisation of Tools and Methods  Global ICT and The Internet ... And proceeds at an ever accelerating pace!
  12. 12. 12 Life Before Science  Cro-Magnon Man (Us!) – 35,000 yr ago  ‘Developed’ out of Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) >100,000 yr  Mission: Survive Nature (1,000 generations)  The Philosophers – 2,500-1,000 yr ago  Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, ...  Mission: Understanding Nature  The Scientists – 1,000-500 yrs ago  Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad)  Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad)  Mission: Manipulation of Nature  The Engineers – 260 yrs ago  Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n)  Mission: Exploitation of Nature  Year 0: Science Meets Exploitation ... Economic (and Population) Explosion Universe – 13.6Byr Earth – 4.5Byr Thomas Telford’s Iron Bridge (1778), Ironbridge, UK
  13. 13. 13 32,000 Years to get To This...  World Stats  WW Pop’n ~100K ->1M  Growth rate ~0.1%pa  Life expectancy 30-40yr ... Mission: Survive and Grow  Technology ...  Low dry-stone walls  Wooden poles and sticks  Thatch, turf, plants, mud and hide  Timber split using wedges  Sharp stones for cutting ... Strategy for next 3,500yrs: “If it was good enough for my father’s, father’s, father’s, ... father; its good enough for me!”
  14. 14. 14 The Industrial Revolution (c1750)  Exploitation of Nature  Unleashing the Power of Science, by delivering it in ways that satisfied a Volume Need ... We now call this Business.  Emergence of the Consumer and personal Money  It began in the United Kingdom, then spread throughout Europe, North America, and eventually the world.  Major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology  Mechanisation of the textile industries,  Development of iron-making techniques  Transportation expansion through canals, improved roads and railways.[5]  Steam power, water wheels and powered machinery  Profound effect on socio-economic and cultural conditions ... For the first time in human history (35kyr), the living standards of the masses of ordinary people underwent sustained growth
  15. 15. 15 Exploitation of the Atom (c1940)  Electronic Technology is ... ...The Most Exciting thing mankind has Ever created! ... And it has all happened within the span of one life-time! Early Electronics The First Transistor (1947) Integrated Transistor ~70 yrs
  16. 16. 16 Gordon Moore: c1965  “Moore's Law” was coined by Carver Mead in 1970, from Gordon Moore's article in Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965 "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits“. “The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer” In 1965 he was designing ICs with ~50 transistors! Moore’s Law has held for ~50 years ... Taking us to 100B transistor ICs Gordon Moore, Founder of Intel
  17. 17. 17 Moore’s Law ... 10nm 100nm 1um 10um 100um ApproximateProcessGeometry ITRS’99 Transistors/Chip(M) Transistor/PM(K) X ... x More Functionality on a Si Chip in 20 yrs! Gordon Moore. Founder of Intel. (1965) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law
  18. 18. 18 The Transistor Today... Asen Assenov a.asenov@elec.gla.ac.uk Modelled ‘views’ of a 30 x 30 nm transistor  3,000 transistors sit side-by-side in the thickness of a bank-note!  A Few Hundred Billion on a chip!  2x that in 18 months time !!!1Mbyte Atoms!
  19. 19. 19 Nvidea Tegra 3 Processor (Around 1B transistors)
  20. 20. 20 Moore’s Law ... 10nm 100nm 1um 10um 100um ApproximateProcessGeometry ITRS’99 Transistors/Chip(M) Transistor/PM(K) ... What happened to the ? Gordon Moore. Founder of Intel. (1965) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law 2x in 18mth 16% in 18mth
  21. 21. 21 The Productivity Revolution (1990)  Reuse Of Everything  Makes Incremental design possible  Supports Design Partitioning and Bigger Design Teams  Allows High-Level Abstraction Languages and Synthesis Tools  Encourages Methodology, Procedure and Quality  Compute Engines  Enables greater use of Memory (Easy to compile)  Enables larger family of complex (on-chip) circuit blocks  Enables Reuse of blocks of Software Code  Enables bigger Design Teams to be focussed  Today >95% of Design is Reused from Previous Product  Hardware, Software, System, RF, Analogue, Displays, Keyboards, etc  Even 5% of new design (1B gates => 5M gates) is a big job for a large team.
  22. 22. 22 Computer: A Machine for Computing ... Computing ... ... A general term for algebraic manipulation of data ... ... State and Time are normally factors in this.  It can include phenomena ranging from human thinking to calculations with a narrower meaning. Wikipedia  Usually used it to exercise analogies (models) of real-world situations; Frequently in real-time. ... So What is the Difference between SW and HW ? y=F(x,t,s) Numerated Phenomena IN (x) Processed Data/ Information OUT (y)
  23. 23. 23 Antikythera c87BC ... Planet Motion Computer See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1CuR29OajI Mechanical Technology • Inventor: Hipparchos (c.190 BC – c.120 BC). Ancient Greek Astronomer, Philosopher and Mathematician. • Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!)
  24. 24. 24 Orrery c1700 ... Planet Motion Computer • Inventor: George Graham (1674-1751). English Clock-Maker. • Single-Task, Continuous Time, Analogue Mechanical Computing (With backlash!) Mechanical Technology
  25. 25. 25 Babbage's Difference Engine 1837  The difference engine consists of a number of columns, numbered from 1 to N. Each column is able to store one decimal number. The only operation the engine can do is add the value of a column n + 1 to column n to produce the new value of n. Column N can only store a constant, column 1 displays (and possibly prints) the value of the calculation on the current iteration. Computer for Calculating Tables: A Basic ALU Engine (Re)construction c2000 Mechanical Technology
  26. 26. 26 “Enigma” c1940 Data Encryption/Decryption Computer Mechanical Technology
  27. 27. 27 “Colossus” 1944 Code-Breaking Computer: A Data Processor Valve/Mechanical Technology
  28. 28. 28 “Baby” 1947 (Reconstruction) General Purpose, Quantised Time and Data, (Digital) Electronic Computing Valve/Software Technology
  29. 29. 29 Analogue Computer – AKAT c1960 General Purpose, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing Transistor Technology
  30. 30. 30 The Pinnacle of Computing Technology? Integrated Circuit & Software Technology
  31. 31. 31 ... Or the Smart Gadget ... Electronic System Technology
  32. 32. 32 Or the Cloud ...? Electronic System Technology
  33. 33. 33 Evolution of Radio Bush Radio 7 Transistors 1 Diode c1960 Evoke DAB Radio 100 M Transistors 2-3 Embedded Processors c2005 BTH Crystal Set 1 Diode c1925 Tele-Verta Radio 4 Valves 1 Rectifier Valve c1945 Ian’s ‘Span’
  34. 34. 34 Vrf=Vi*100 Vlo=Cos(t*1^6) Vi Vrf Vif=Vrf*Vlo Vlo Vif Vro='Bandpass'(Vif*1000) Vro Radio as Computation ... Single-Task, Continuous Time, Approximate (Analogue) Electronic Computing Valve Technology Transistor Technology Integrated Circuit Technology
  35. 35. 35 Computing is There is Input/Output And there is Processing. HW, SW, Analogue and Mech.IL are just time-related Architectural Decisions
  36. 36. 36 The Public Image of a Cool iCon ...
  37. 37. 37 Actually Cool at Many Levels ...
  38. 38. 38 It has an Inside that is Cool too! iPhone 4's vibrator motor. rear-facing 5 MP camera with 720p video at 30 FPS, tap to focus feature, and LED flash. http://www.ifixit.com Down 1-Level: Modules ... Stuff that doesn’t grow on trees! (ie: It also has to be Created)
  39. 39. 39 And so do the Modules... http://www.ifixit.com The Control Board. Down 1-Level: Modules
  40. 40. 40 Inside The Control Board (a-side) http://www.ifixit.com Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies  Visible Design-Team Members ...  Samsung (flash memory) - (ARM Partner)  Cirrus Logic (audio codec) - (ARM Partner)  AKM (Magnetic Sensor)  Texas Instruments (Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR) - (ARM Partner)  Invisible Design-Team Members ...  Software Tools, OS & Drivers, GSM Security; Graphics, Video and Sound ...  Manufacturing, Assembly, Test, Certification ...
  41. 41. 41 Inside The Control Board (b-side) GPS Bluetooth, EDR &FM http://www.ifixit.com Down 2-Levels: Sub-Assemblies  Visible Design-Team Members...  A4 Processor, specified by Apple, designed and manufactured by Samsung ...  The central unit that provides the iPhone 4 with its GP computing power.  Reported to contain ARM A8 600 MHz CPU (other ARM CPUs and IP)  ST-Micro (3 axis gyroscope) - (ARM Partner)  Broadcom (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS) - (ARM Partner)  Skyworks (GSM)  Triquint (GSM PA)  Infineon (GSM Transceiver) - (ARM Partner)
  42. 42. 42 Inside the A4 SIP Package (Cross-section) Down 3-Levels: IC Packaging  The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls.  Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.  Putting the RAM close to the processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and cuts power.  Unknown Mfr (Memory)  Samsung (Processor)  Unknown (System-In-Package Technology) http://www.ifixit.com Processor SOC Die 2 Memory Dies Glue Memory ‘Package’ 4-Layer Platform Package’
  43. 43. 43 A lot of stuff in a Smart Phone ...
  44. 44. 44 Lots Designers Involved Globally ...  159 Tier-1 Suppliers ...  Thousands of Design Engineers  10’s of thousands of Engineers  Globally ... Hundreds more Tier-2 suppliers (Including ARM)
  45. 45. 45 Reuse for Productivity and Quality  Mobile Products have 500m gate SoCs / 500m lines of code  ~Doubling every 18mth  Designer Productivity: is just 100-1000 Gates(Lines)/day  That is tested, verified, incorporated gates/lines  That’s 2,500-25,000 p.yrs to design from scratch! (Un-Resourceable)  Typically ‘Designs’ have just 50-100 p.yr available ...  That’s just ~0.5% New (>99% Reuse!)  Not Viable to do a clean-sheet product design (Nor has been since ~1995)  The core HW/SW is only a part of a Product  There’s all of the other Components and Sub-Systems  There’s the IO systems (RF, Audio, Optical, Geo-spatial, Temporal)  There’s the Mechanical  There’s the Reproduction (Factory)  There's the Business Model (Cash-flow, Distribution, Legal)  There’s the Support (Repair, Installation, Maintenance, Replacement)
  46. 46. 46 How Much Reuse Do We Need?  Design Tools (across all Product Disciplines) underpin this ...  Reuse of Modules and Components  Reuse of Existing Code and Circuits  Sharing Methodology  Sharing Architecture  Creating Tools to Accelerate Methodology and Repeatability  Design For “x” (DFx) is Design For up-stream Deployment  Includes DFR (Design For Reuse)  A significant part is (and will remain) Knowledge based ...  The Designer has done similar work before  The Team has Collective experience  The Company has experience and a customer base  The Role of the Design Engineer is to ...  Create Order out of Chaos  Identify and Apply Appropriate Knowledge, to create a Viable Product
  47. 47. 47 Technologies Enable Many Products Transport Energy Entertainment Health Security Communications Tools Robotics Micro-Electronics Software Optics (etc etc)  Science ≠ Technology  Technologies are Science ready to be deployed in a Mission-Critical situation.
  48. 48. 48 But a Product is More than Technology  21c Businesses are (better be)  Selling ‘Stuff’ that People want; at a Price they can Afford  With Business Models that are (sufficiently) Cash +ve  Business needs  End-Customers buy Functionality (not Technology)  Competition is Global (2nd is for Losers)  New Products are  Design is a Cost/Risk to be Minimised  (New) Technology ...  Just Enables Product Options (Not all are good)  Can Increases Cost/Risk, more than the Return!   Competition, Suppliers (tech. and products) and Investors are global  But so are the Opportunities ... ... Business (and You) must embrace Global Opportunities to be succeed!
  49. 49. 49 Electronic Age: 1975-2005 Electronic System Age: 2003-2030  The Set of Technologies to maintain the required 2x Functional Growth rate; In The Box. Preceded by Wood Age ⇒ Stone Age ⇒ Bronze Age ⇒ Iron Age ... Dawn of the Electronic Systems Age ... FunctionalDensity(units) 1960 1980 2000 2020 102 1010 106 1012 100
  50. 50. 50 So What Does ARM Do? ARM designs “processor technology” that lies at the heart of advanced consumer products http://www.arm.com/
  51. 51. 51 ARM – Architecture for the Digital World 1998 2012 2020 40+billion chips to date 150+billion chips cumulative in 2020 http://www.arm.com/
  52. 52. 52 Multiplier Instruction Decoder Address Incrementer nRESET ABORT nIRQ nFIQ WRITE SIZE[1:0] LOCK CPnCPI CPA CPB CLKEN CLK CPnOPC CFGBIGEND TRANS RDATA[31:0] Barrel Shifter 32 Bit ALU Write Data Register Address Register Register Bank ADDR[31:0] and Control Logic A B u s A L U B u s P C PC Update Decode Stage Instruction Decompression Incrementer Read Data Register WDATA[31:0] PROT Scan Debug Control B B u s The ARM RISC-Processor Core http://www.arm.com/
  53. 53. 53 The ‘Lego-Brick’ Chip-Design Concept ARM ARM ARM ARM ARM ARM nVidea Tegra3
  54. 54. 54 Today, users require a pocket ‘Super-Computer’ ...  Silicon Technology Provides a few-Billion transistors ...  ARM’s Technology makes it Practical to utilise them ... More and More Complex System Chips • 10 Processors • 4 x A9 Processors (2x2): • 4 x MALI 400 Fragment Proc: • 1 x MALI 400 Vertex Proc. • 1 x MALI Video CoDec • Software Stacks, OS’s and Design Tools/ • ARM Technology gives chip/system designers ... • Improved Productivity • Improved TTM • Improved Quality/Certainty http://www.arm.com/
  55. 55. 55 The Chip is the Core of the System  ARM Technology drives efficient Electronic System solutions:  Software increasing system efficiency with optimized software solutions  Diverse components, including CPU and GPU processors designed for specific tasks  Interconnect System IP delivering coherency and the quality of service required for lowest memory bandwidth  Physical IP for a highly optimized processor implementation  Backed by >900 Global Partners ...  >800 Licences  Millions of Developers http://www.arm.com/
  56. 56. 56  1990 - "A barn in Cambridge"  12 engineers, in Cambridge  No Revenue, No Patents  Cash from Apple & VLSI  Spin-out of Acorn UK ...  BBC Computers in Schools (1981)  Roots in Uo.Cambridge (c1975) ... A Dream to become the Global Standard for Embedded CPUs  2013 - "The worlds leading IP Product"  Powering >90% of the Smart Electronic Systems in the world  75% of all the devices connected to the Internet  8.7B CPUs shipped (2012): +20%pa, 40B total (>50x all PCs!)  FTSE 100 (MarCap £12.8B): Revenue ~£580M, PBT ~47%, R&D ~30% (2012)  Cambridge HQ: 25 offices/labs and 2,400 people ww (990 in the UK)  >95% revenue is foreign earnings The World’s Favourite IP Provider http://www.arm.com/
  57. 57. 57 Innovation & Efficiency Underpins It All ARM’s 21c Role is to make the Creation of High-Performance, Electronic Systems as Productive, Economical and Reliable as possible ... Through Reuse and Hw/Sw Methodology
  58. 58. 58 Intuitive and Natural User Interfaces More pixels, greater fidelity Leading Innovation in Computing Devices Continued Innovation on Energy Efficiency Protection of your Data Always on, Always Connected Delivered through a single Architecture and a broad partnership Mobile Device Trends
  59. 59. 59 Societies Challenges in the 21c  Urbanisation (Smart Cities)  Health (eHealth)  Transport  Energy (Smart Grid)  Security  Environment  Electronic Systems will not ‘fix’ any of these Challenges in themselves, but their Technology will Enable all of them! ... Electronic Systems Technologies are Key Enabling Technologies (KETs)  Food/Water  Ageing Society  Sustainability  Digital Inclusion  Economics
  60. 60. 60 Conclusions  Electronic Systems are a growing feature our lives today; and they will underpin society and our economy tomorrow.  It is important that we maintain our presence in their global life-cycles and do not become overly dependent on the beneficence of others.  Electronic Systems Technology is Magical, but it is not Magic  Whilst we may be ‘clever’, we are not Magicians.  Advances are painstaking and precise, and ES Products emerge from the efforts of Global Networks of Physical and Knowledge contributors.  The simplest life-forms are still way above any science or technology today.  It is important to Explain Ourselves to the Public  They need us to build and maintain their 21C, and its economy.  We need their support for the Education, Research and Finance ... which will lead to the creation of Jobs and Careers.  Inter-Disciplinary Boundaries are a Negative Influence  They serve administrative purposes, but cause huge disunity.
  61. 61. 61 The 21C will be what YOU Make It ...
  62. 62. 62 Reading & References  Electronics 2015: Making a Visible Difference (Referred)  DTI EIGT Report, HMG URN 04/1812, 2004.  Engineering UK 2009 (and 2011): The state of engineering (Referred)  EngineeringUK (ex Engineering Council), 2009 and 2011.  The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Disruptive Tech.)  by Clayton M. Christensen: HBS Press, 1997  Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology (Research in 21C)  by Henry William Chesbrough : HBS Press, 2003  The World Is Flat (Globalisation)  by Thomas L. Friedman: Penguin, 2005  Staying Power (Business)  by Michael Cusumano: Oxford, 2010  A Short History of Nearly Everything (A different view on what we know)  by Bill Bryson: Black Swan, 2003  The Voyages of the Beagle (Scientific Observation) – Free on-line  By Charles Darwin,1860  An Essay on the Principles of Population (Natural Competition) – Free on-line  By Thomas Malthus,1789