Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Plenary - Wenrang Jiang
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Saving this for later?

Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime - even offline.

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Plenary - Wenrang Jiang

779
views

Published on

Wenrang Jiang, University of Alberta Presentation

Wenrang Jiang, University of Alberta Presentation

Published in: Technology, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
779
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Border Energy Forum XVIII October 27, 2011 El Paso, Texas Wenran Jiang, Ph.D. Project Director, Canada-China Energy & Environment Forum Special Advisor on China, the Energy Council Senior Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada Former Founding Director, China Institute University of Alberta CHINA ’ S DEMAND FOR ENEGY & Its Implications for the world NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  • 2. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's "Go-out" Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 3. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's "Go-out" Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 4.
    • Modernization paradigm on steroids
    • Heavy dependence on high capital & labor inputs with low wages, focused on heavy & manufacturing industries
    • Deepening integration with the world economy
    • Huge demand for energy and resources
    • Severe damage to the environment & major contribution to global warming
    • Decisively state interventionist – Marx or Keynes
    China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 5. China’s Share of the World Commodity Usage (%) Source: UN Comtrade, SinoLatin
  • 6. China’s Share of the World Commodity Usage (%) Source: UN Comtrade, SinoLatin China’ s Domestic Oil Production and Total Demand
  • 7. China ’s Energy Consumption Composition 2007 Source: Energy Research Institute, NDRC 2009
  • 8.  
  • 9. China’s explosive growth & energy use 1 st in foreign direct investment inflow 1 st international trader 1 st in foreign currency reserve 1 st in foreign trade to GDP ratio 2 nd largest economy 1 st comprehensive energy producer 1 st in overall energy consumption 1 st overall power market 1 st in wind turbine/solar panel installation 1 st in auto production & sales 1 st in CO2 emission 1 st in the number of cities heavily polluted China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 10. China’s contribution to oil demand growth, 2010‐15, kb/d
  • 11.  
  • 12. Energy Demand Forecasts (mtoe)
  • 13.
    • Mega Trends China
      • Urbanization
    • By 2020, 350 mil. rural population will move to cities (now 600 mil.)
    • By 2025, 221 Chinese cities with a population over 1 mil.
    • 2. Dramatic increase in domestic consumption & service industry
    • (now 37% of GDP vs. 70% in US)
    • 3. Infrastructure & construction boom
    • More than 5 mil. km of road, 170 mass transit systems,
    • 5 mil. new buildings with 40 bil. sm., over 50,000 skyscrapers over 30 stories high
    • 4. Energy demand
    • Oil imports reaching 70-75% from the current 50%
      • Auto industry superpower
    • 13 mil. plus sold in 09, 10% up (US -23% & Europe -15%)
      • Tourist superpower
        • 150 mil. tourists visiting China, spending over 40 bil.
        • No. 1 destination by 2015 (now No.4)
        • 41 mil. outbound Chinese tourists in 2007, 65 mil. expected by 2010
    China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 14. Source: UN Population Division
  • 15. Urbanization and China’s emerging middle class Source: McKinsey & Co.
  • 16. Energy consumption per capita versus the GNP per capita The graph plots the per capita energy versus the per capita income for all countries with more than 20 million inhabitants, the data more than 90% of the world's population. The image shows the broad relation between wealth and energy consumption.
  • 17. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's "Go-out" Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 18. The growth drivers behind China’s outbound M&A Source: SinoLatin
  • 19. Although China-Africa trade volume dropped to US$91.07 billion in 2009 as a result of the international financial crisis, China became Africa' s largest trade partner that year for the first time. [US-Africa $86.33 bil.] From January to November in 2010, China-Africa trade volume reached US$114.81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 43.5%. [US-Africa $103.05 bil.]
  • 20. Latin America and the Caribbean – Share of the Main Destinations in Total Exports & Imports, 2000 - 2010
  • 21.  
  • 22. China Annual Outbound FDI 1980 –2010 (US$ billions) Source: MOFCOM, Various News Sources.
  • 23. China Annual Outbound FDI 1980 –2010 (US$ billions) Source: MOFCOM, Various News Sources.
  • 24. Major Chinese Acquisitions in Latin America Source: Kevin Gallaher
  • 25. China’s loans-in-exchange-for-energy-&-resources deals since 2007 Russia $25 bil. Kazakhstan $10 bil. Brazil $10 bil. Venezuela $32 bil. Ghana $16 bil. DR Congo $9 bil. ($6 bil. modified) Nigeria $23 bil. (3 refineries) China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 26. Estimated Chinese share of overseas equity in oil exporting countries, Q1 2010
  • 27. China has just begun to invest abroad Source: SAFE.
  • 28. China’s Domestic Savings (1997-2020E) Source: JP Morgan, China Statistics Bureau, SLC estimates.
  • 29. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's "Go-out" Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 30.  
  • 31. Current and Projected Per Capita CO2 Emissions (metric tons)
  • 32. Projected Annual CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
  • 33.  
  • 34.  
  • 35.  
  • 36.  
  • 37. Vehicle Penetration as an Income Function Projections to 2030
  • 38.  
  • 39.  
  • 40.  
  • 41. Sources of China's Crude Oil Imports Gradual increase of oil imports from Africa, corresponded with a recent decrease of Middle East crude. Source: Dow Jones, Reuters
  • 42.  
  • 43. China’s Malacca Dilemma
  • 44. The First and Second Island Chains Conceived by the Chinese Military
  • 45. Both China & USA are largest emitters More than 60% of China ’s exports are produced by Western firms
  • 46. Canada as a Potential Energy Superpower Sources: Oil and Gas Journal – Dec 2002 Ranked as the second largest crude oil reserve in the world, next to Saudi Arabia.
  • 47. North America only represents a tiny portion of China ’s overall OFDI in the world (2003-07) Sources: mofcom
  • 48. Major Chinese Investment in North America Since late 2009 IN $ FROM AOSC $1.9 bil. PetroChina Syncrude $4.65 bil Sinopec Penn West Energy $1.25 bil China Investment Corp. Opti/Nexen $2.1 bil. CNOOC Daylight $2.2 bil. Sinopec Chesapeake $1.1 bil. CNOOC (Eagle Ford) Chesapeake $1.3 bil. CNOOC (Powder River) China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  • 49.  
  • 50. China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications THANK YOU Wenran Jiang, Ph.D Project Director, Canada-China Energy & Environment Forum Special Advisor on China, the Energy Council Senior Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada Former Founding Director, China Institute University of Alberta 10-28 Tory Building, University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta, Canada  T6G 2R1 Tel. 780 492 9898    Fax. 780 492 1830 Email:  [email_address]