Border Energy Forum XVIII October 27, 2011 El Paso, Texas Wenran Jiang, Ph.D. Project Director, Canada-China Energy & Envi...
OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's "Go-out" Strategy in Full Speed III. Implicat...
OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's "Go-out" Strategy in Full Speed III. Implicat...
<ul><li>Modernization paradigm on steroids </li></ul><ul><li>Heavy dependence on high capital & labor inputs with low wage...
China’s Share of the World Commodity Usage (%) Source: UN Comtrade, SinoLatin
China’s Share of the World Commodity Usage (%) Source: UN Comtrade, SinoLatin  China’ s  Domestic Oil Production and Total...
China ’s Energy Consumption Composition 2007 Source: Energy Research Institute, NDRC 2009
 
China’s explosive growth & energy use 1 st  in foreign direct investment inflow 1 st  international trader 1 st  in foreig...
China’s contribution to oil demand growth, 2010‐15, kb/d
 
Energy Demand Forecasts (mtoe)
<ul><li>Mega Trends China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>By 2020, 350 mil. rural population wil...
Source: UN Population Division
Urbanization and China’s emerging middle class Source: McKinsey & Co.
Energy consumption per capita versus the GNP per capita   The graph plots the per capita energy versus the per capita inco...
OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's &quot;Go-out&quot; Strategy in Full Speed III. Implicat...
The growth drivers behind China’s outbound M&A Source: SinoLatin
Although China-Africa trade volume dropped to US$91.07 billion in 2009 as a result of the international financial crisis, ...
Latin America and the Caribbean – Share of the Main Destinations in Total Exports & Imports, 2000 - 2010
 
China Annual Outbound FDI 1980 –2010  (US$ billions) Source: MOFCOM, Various News Sources.
China Annual Outbound FDI 1980 –2010  (US$ billions) Source: MOFCOM, Various News Sources.
Major Chinese Acquisitions in Latin America Source: Kevin Gallaher
China’s loans-in-exchange-for-energy-&-resources deals since 2007 Russia $25 bil. Kazakhstan $10 bil. Brazil $10 bil. Vene...
Estimated Chinese share of overseas equity in oil exporting countries, Q1 2010
China has just begun to invest abroad Source: SAFE.
China’s Domestic Savings (1997-2020E) Source: JP Morgan, China Statistics Bureau, SLC estimates.
OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's &quot;Go-out&quot; Strategy in Full Speed III. Implicat...
 
Current and Projected Per Capita CO2 Emissions  (metric tons)
Projected Annual CO2 Emissions  (million metric tons)
 
 
 
 
Vehicle Penetration as an Income Function Projections to 2030
 
 
 
Sources of China's Crude Oil Imports Gradual increase of oil imports from Africa, corresponded with a recent decrease of M...
 
China’s Malacca Dilemma
The First and Second Island Chains Conceived by the Chinese Military
Both China & USA are largest emitters  More than 60% of China ’s exports are produced by Western firms
Canada as a Potential Energy Superpower Sources: Oil and Gas Journal – Dec 2002 Ranked as the second largest crude oil res...
North America only represents a tiny portion  of China ’s overall OFDI in the world (2003-07) Sources: mofcom
Major Chinese Investment in North America Since late 2009   IN   $   FROM AOSC $1.9 bil. PetroChina Syncrude $4.65 bil Sin...
 
China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications THANK YOU Wenran Jiang, Ph.D Project Director, Canada-China Energy & Environm...
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Plenary - Wenrang Jiang

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Plenary - Wenrang Jiang

  1. 1. Border Energy Forum XVIII October 27, 2011 El Paso, Texas Wenran Jiang, Ph.D. Project Director, Canada-China Energy & Environment Forum Special Advisor on China, the Energy Council Senior Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada Former Founding Director, China Institute University of Alberta CHINA ’ S DEMAND FOR ENEGY & Its Implications for the world NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
  2. 2. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's &quot;Go-out&quot; Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  3. 3. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's &quot;Go-out&quot; Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  4. 4. <ul><li>Modernization paradigm on steroids </li></ul><ul><li>Heavy dependence on high capital & labor inputs with low wages, focused on heavy & manufacturing industries </li></ul><ul><li>Deepening integration with the world economy </li></ul><ul><li>Huge demand for energy and resources </li></ul><ul><li>Severe damage to the environment & major contribution to global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Decisively state interventionist – Marx or Keynes </li></ul>China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  5. 5. China’s Share of the World Commodity Usage (%) Source: UN Comtrade, SinoLatin
  6. 6. China’s Share of the World Commodity Usage (%) Source: UN Comtrade, SinoLatin China’ s Domestic Oil Production and Total Demand
  7. 7. China ’s Energy Consumption Composition 2007 Source: Energy Research Institute, NDRC 2009
  8. 9. China’s explosive growth & energy use 1 st in foreign direct investment inflow 1 st international trader 1 st in foreign currency reserve 1 st in foreign trade to GDP ratio 2 nd largest economy 1 st comprehensive energy producer 1 st in overall energy consumption 1 st overall power market 1 st in wind turbine/solar panel installation 1 st in auto production & sales 1 st in CO2 emission 1 st in the number of cities heavily polluted China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  9. 10. China’s contribution to oil demand growth, 2010‐15, kb/d
  10. 12. Energy Demand Forecasts (mtoe)
  11. 13. <ul><li>Mega Trends China </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>By 2020, 350 mil. rural population will move to cities (now 600 mil.) </li></ul><ul><li>By 2025, 221 Chinese cities with a population over 1 mil. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Dramatic increase in domestic consumption & service industry </li></ul><ul><li>(now 37% of GDP vs. 70% in US) </li></ul><ul><li>3. Infrastructure & construction boom </li></ul><ul><li>More than 5 mil. km of road, 170 mass transit systems, </li></ul><ul><li>5 mil. new buildings with 40 bil. sm., over 50,000 skyscrapers over 30 stories high </li></ul><ul><li>4. Energy demand </li></ul><ul><li>Oil imports reaching 70-75% from the current 50% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Auto industry superpower </li></ul></ul><ul><li>13 mil. plus sold in 09, 10% up (US -23% & Europe -15%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tourist superpower </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>150 mil. tourists visiting China, spending over 40 bil. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No. 1 destination by 2015 (now No.4) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>41 mil. outbound Chinese tourists in 2007, 65 mil. expected by 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul>China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  12. 14. Source: UN Population Division
  13. 15. Urbanization and China’s emerging middle class Source: McKinsey & Co.
  14. 16. Energy consumption per capita versus the GNP per capita The graph plots the per capita energy versus the per capita income for all countries with more than 20 million inhabitants, the data more than 90% of the world's population. The image shows the broad relation between wealth and energy consumption.
  15. 17. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's &quot;Go-out&quot; Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  16. 18. The growth drivers behind China’s outbound M&A Source: SinoLatin
  17. 19. Although China-Africa trade volume dropped to US$91.07 billion in 2009 as a result of the international financial crisis, China became Africa' s largest trade partner that year for the first time. [US-Africa $86.33 bil.] From January to November in 2010, China-Africa trade volume reached US$114.81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 43.5%. [US-Africa $103.05 bil.]
  18. 20. Latin America and the Caribbean – Share of the Main Destinations in Total Exports & Imports, 2000 - 2010
  19. 22. China Annual Outbound FDI 1980 –2010 (US$ billions) Source: MOFCOM, Various News Sources.
  20. 23. China Annual Outbound FDI 1980 –2010 (US$ billions) Source: MOFCOM, Various News Sources.
  21. 24. Major Chinese Acquisitions in Latin America Source: Kevin Gallaher
  22. 25. China’s loans-in-exchange-for-energy-&-resources deals since 2007 Russia $25 bil. Kazakhstan $10 bil. Brazil $10 bil. Venezuela $32 bil. Ghana $16 bil. DR Congo $9 bil. ($6 bil. modified) Nigeria $23 bil. (3 refineries) China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  23. 26. Estimated Chinese share of overseas equity in oil exporting countries, Q1 2010
  24. 27. China has just begun to invest abroad Source: SAFE.
  25. 28. China’s Domestic Savings (1997-2020E) Source: JP Morgan, China Statistics Bureau, SLC estimates.
  26. 29. OVERVIEW: I. Development Paradigm & China’s energy use II. China's &quot;Go-out&quot; Strategy in Full Speed III. Implications for North America China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  27. 31. Current and Projected Per Capita CO2 Emissions (metric tons)
  28. 32. Projected Annual CO2 Emissions (million metric tons)
  29. 37. Vehicle Penetration as an Income Function Projections to 2030
  30. 41. Sources of China's Crude Oil Imports Gradual increase of oil imports from Africa, corresponded with a recent decrease of Middle East crude. Source: Dow Jones, Reuters
  31. 43. China’s Malacca Dilemma
  32. 44. The First and Second Island Chains Conceived by the Chinese Military
  33. 45. Both China & USA are largest emitters More than 60% of China ’s exports are produced by Western firms
  34. 46. Canada as a Potential Energy Superpower Sources: Oil and Gas Journal – Dec 2002 Ranked as the second largest crude oil reserve in the world, next to Saudi Arabia.
  35. 47. North America only represents a tiny portion of China ’s overall OFDI in the world (2003-07) Sources: mofcom
  36. 48. Major Chinese Investment in North America Since late 2009 IN $ FROM AOSC $1.9 bil. PetroChina Syncrude $4.65 bil Sinopec Penn West Energy $1.25 bil China Investment Corp. Opti/Nexen $2.1 bil. CNOOC Daylight $2.2 bil. Sinopec Chesapeake $1.1 bil. CNOOC (Eagle Ford) Chesapeake $1.3 bil. CNOOC (Powder River) China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications
  37. 50. China’s Demand for Energy & Its Implications THANK YOU Wenran Jiang, Ph.D Project Director, Canada-China Energy & Environment Forum Special Advisor on China, the Energy Council Senior Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada Former Founding Director, China Institute University of Alberta 10-28 Tory Building, University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta, Canada  T6G 2R1 Tel. 780 492 9898    Fax. 780 492 1830 Email:  [email_address]

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