The document discusses threats posed by globalization and how societies have employed different meta-strategies throughout history to cope with these threats, including genetic suppression, warfare, and economic suppression. It argues that societies are currently shifting from an economic suppression strategy towards a cultural dissemination strategy, as seen in developed countries. This strategic shift presents both opportunities to resolve global crises caused by globalization but also uncertainties that must be addressed for a sustainable transition to a new social system.

1. Social Strategy Shift: Avoiding Globalization Threats Pavel Luksha Higher School of Economics http://www.geocities.com/pluksha bowin@mail.ru Presentation for RC51 SOCIOCYBERNETICS Conference Lisbon, July 26-31, 2004

10. Few Indications: Genetic Suppression Female fertility in different world regions, 1970-75 and 2000-05 Source: (UN HDR, 2003) overall fertility decreasing, rates of decrease are different

11. Few Indications: War Conflicts Major war conflicts, 1950-2004 Major war conflicts within developed countries: 1900-1925: 5, including WWI 1926-1950: 3, including WWII 1950-2004: 0 Calculations based on (Teeple, 2002) and author’s amendments importance reduced during last 25 yrs increasing importance in last 25 yrs

12. Few Indications: Economic Suppression Indications of economic development in different regions, 2001 Source: (UN HDR, 2003)

13. Readiness for Cultural Dissemination Indications of ‘cultural dissemination infrastructure’ in different regions, 2001 Although cultural level may be comparable, the ‘digital divide’ and institutional infrastructure makes OECD countries the only capable to accomplish the strategic shift towards ‘cultural dissemination’ strategy Source: (UN HDR, 2003)

14. Regional Strategies Pursued Rough indication of dominating meta-strategies genetic suppression; war conflicts [?] MIX Middle East & North Africa genetic suppression PURE Sub-Saharian Africa MIX TRANSITION MIX TRANSITION PURE Class of Meta-Strategy economic suppression East Asia and Pacific economic suppression; war conflicts [with non-OECD countries, esp. Arab States]; cultural dissemination OECD no clear strategy chosen CEE & CIS genetic suppression; [shifting to] economic suppression South Asia no clear strategy chosen Latin America Meta-Strategy WORLD REGION

16. SOCs and Counter-Programs

18. SOC: Current Status