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Institutions and Development Mary M. Shirley President, The Ronald Coase Institute
 
Institutions ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Questions I’ll Address ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why is this important?
Development is the exception ,[object Object]
World’s population living in developed vs. underdeveloped countries, 2006 DC LDC World Bank, DC = >$11,115 GNP p.c. PPP in 2006 85%
Underdevelopment persists ,[object Object],[object Object]
World’s population living in developed vs. underdeveloped countries DC LDC DC LDC
Underdevelopment persists  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Aid Community in 2005 (gross aid* in billions of dollars) 21 36 17,428 $51 $120 $15 *$188 gross vs. $121 net.  OECD
Role of institutions in development
What Kinds of Institutions Are Needed for Development? ,[object Object]
Reduce transaction costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Institutions Needed for Development ,[object Object],[object Object]
Control the state ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Institutional frameworks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
E.G. idiosyncratic change: China’s TVEs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Capitalism with a red hat”
Can aid improve institutions?
No evidence aid can stimulate growth ,[object Object]
No evidence aid can stimulate growth ,[object Object],[object Object]
No evidence aid can stimulate growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
No evidence aid can stimulate growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
No evidence aid can stimulate growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
No evidence aid can improve  institutions ,[object Object]
Evidence aid can  harm  institutions ,[object Object]
Evidence aid can  harm  institutions ,[object Object],[object Object]
Evidence aid can  harm  institutions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evidence aid  harms  institutions ,[object Object]
Evidence aid  harms  institutions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cross Country Regressions  ,[object Object]
Cross Country Regressions  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Cross Country Regressions  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
Why? ,[object Object]
Why? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Why? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Why? ,[object Object]
Characteristics of Institutions vs. Aid ,[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Institutions vs. Aid ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Institutions vs. Aid ,[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Institutions vs. Aid ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Institutions vs. Aid ,[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of Institutions vs. Aid ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Without improvements in damaging institutions  aid projects  result in:  pro forma reforms
E.G. Performance contracts Government State owned enterprise Foreign aid
Manager promises productivity profitability investment other targets
Government promises autonomy to achieve targets $   bonus or recognition for good results punishment for bad results
Foreign aid agency promises
Performance Changes After the Introduction of Contracts Return on   assets No change Deteriorated 0 4 8 12 Number of state-owned enterprises
Performance Changes After the Introduction of Contracts Labor productivity  Improved No change 0 4 8 12 Number of state-owned enterprises
Performance Changes After the Introduction of Contracts Total factor productivity   0 4 8 12 Number of state-owned enterprises Improved Deteriorated No change Shirley & Xu, 2000
No Significant Positive Correlation with TFP in over  500 Contracts
Why such poor results? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why performance contracts? ,[object Object]
Why performance contracts? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why performance contracts? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why performance contracts? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
Can aid avoid damaging institutions?
Problems ,[object Object],[object Object]
E.G. US Millennium Challenge Account ,[object Object],[object Object]
E.G. US Millennium Challenge Account ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
E.G. US Millennium Challenge Account ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source: MCA Data on the Web at www.MCA.gov. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Promoting Economic Reform ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Investing in People ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Governing Justly Performance Criteria Dimension
[object Object]
Problems with measurement ,[object Object]
Problems with measurement ,[object Object],[object Object]
Problems with measurement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Problems with measurement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Not institutions --  outcomes ,[object Object],[object Object]
Problems with measurement ,[object Object]
Kaufmann & Kraay 2002 Impossible to say w/90% certainty where 51 of 61 countries rank
[object Object]
Selectivity conflicts with incentives to more the money ,[object Object],[object Object]
Selectivity conflicts with incentives to more the money ,[object Object],[object Object]
Selectivity conflicts with incentives to more the money ,[object Object],[object Object]
What can be done about damaging institutions?
What can be done? ,[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
Intellectual capital ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
Case Studies
Case studies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Serious threat, economic problems Failure of past reforms Change seen as necessary by elites Coherent alternative different from  past reforms Role model Consensus view of group Seen as experts? Seen as not self  interested? Incentives to be  truthful? Local knowledge? yes yes yes yes Alternative paradigm Channels to elites Alternative is known to elites Alternative is feasible SCHOLARS RULING ELITES Policy, paradigm change Paradigm is disseminated REST OF POPULATION Beliefs change Institutional change Outcomes seen as positive
Serious threat, economic problems Failure of past reforms Change seen as necessary by elites
Change seen as necessary by elites ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Coherent alternative different  from past reforms Consensus view of group Scholarly group with alternative paradigm
Scholarly group with alternative paradigm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Seen as experts? Seen as not self  interested? Incentives to be  truthful? Local knowledge? Scholarly group with alternative paradigm Lupia & McCubbins
Alternative paradigm Channels to elites Alternative is known to elites Alternative is feasible
Alternative is known to elites ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Paradigm is disseminated Policy, paradigm change Outcomes seen   as  positive Beliefs, norms change, new stakeholders Public Elites
Paradigm is disseminated ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scholars in receptive circumstances: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Build Intellectual Capital  ,[object Object]

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Institutions and Development

  • 1. Institutions and Development Mary M. Shirley President, The Ronald Coase Institute
  • 2.  
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Why is this important?
  • 7.
  • 8. World’s population living in developed vs. underdeveloped countries, 2006 DC LDC World Bank, DC = >$11,115 GNP p.c. PPP in 2006 85%
  • 9.
  • 10. World’s population living in developed vs. underdeveloped countries DC LDC DC LDC
  • 11.
  • 12. Aid Community in 2005 (gross aid* in billions of dollars) 21 36 17,428 $51 $120 $15 *$188 gross vs. $121 net. OECD
  • 13. Role of institutions in development
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. “ Capitalism with a red hat”
  • 21. Can aid improve institutions?
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  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. Without improvements in damaging institutions aid projects result in: pro forma reforms
  • 49. E.G. Performance contracts Government State owned enterprise Foreign aid
  • 50. Manager promises productivity profitability investment other targets
  • 51. Government promises autonomy to achieve targets $ bonus or recognition for good results punishment for bad results
  • 52. Foreign aid agency promises
  • 53. Performance Changes After the Introduction of Contracts Return on assets No change Deteriorated 0 4 8 12 Number of state-owned enterprises
  • 54. Performance Changes After the Introduction of Contracts Labor productivity Improved No change 0 4 8 12 Number of state-owned enterprises
  • 55. Performance Changes After the Introduction of Contracts Total factor productivity 0 4 8 12 Number of state-owned enterprises Improved Deteriorated No change Shirley & Xu, 2000
  • 56. No Significant Positive Correlation with TFP in over 500 Contracts
  • 57.
  • 58.
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  • 60.
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  • 62.
  • 63. Can aid avoid damaging institutions?
  • 64.
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  • 76. Kaufmann & Kraay 2002 Impossible to say w/90% certainty where 51 of 61 countries rank
  • 77.
  • 78.
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  • 80.
  • 81. What can be done about damaging institutions?
  • 82.
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  • 89. Serious threat, economic problems Failure of past reforms Change seen as necessary by elites Coherent alternative different from past reforms Role model Consensus view of group Seen as experts? Seen as not self interested? Incentives to be truthful? Local knowledge? yes yes yes yes Alternative paradigm Channels to elites Alternative is known to elites Alternative is feasible SCHOLARS RULING ELITES Policy, paradigm change Paradigm is disseminated REST OF POPULATION Beliefs change Institutional change Outcomes seen as positive
  • 90. Serious threat, economic problems Failure of past reforms Change seen as necessary by elites
  • 91.
  • 92. Coherent alternative different from past reforms Consensus view of group Scholarly group with alternative paradigm
  • 93.
  • 94. Seen as experts? Seen as not self interested? Incentives to be truthful? Local knowledge? Scholarly group with alternative paradigm Lupia & McCubbins
  • 95. Alternative paradigm Channels to elites Alternative is known to elites Alternative is feasible
  • 96.
  • 97. Paradigm is disseminated Policy, paradigm change Outcomes seen as positive Beliefs, norms change, new stakeholders Public Elites
  • 98.
  • 99.
  • 100.
  • 101.

Editor's Notes

  1. In 3/4 th of poor countries GDP per capita grew slower than rich countries from 1980-2003; 1/3 rd of poor countries have shown no increase in GDP per capita since 1980’s
  2. Projected to grow by 62% between 2004-2010