How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability

347 views
264 views

Published on

Eric Garland and Craig Fleisher discuss how analysts and dialog trump authority and reports.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
347
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability

  1. 1. How to Spot and Cope with Emerging Transitions in Complex Systems for Organizational Stability A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 20 March 2013 ~ featuring ~ Eric Garland Dr. Craig Fleisher Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  2. 2. Questions, Commentary & Content α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  3. 3. Eric Garland works with leaders about how to manage big changes to the global economy. He also plays bass. Connect with Eric via: Twitter: @ericgarland Web: http://www.ericgarland.co Web: http://www.transitionistas.com Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/EricGarlandFuture Email: Eric@Ericgarland.co Eric Garland Author, analyst, curmudgeon The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  4. 4. AGENDA  Defining “The Transition” and why it is changing intelligence so radically  Suggested tools for advanced organizational understanding  Q&A Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  5. 5. MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA  One of the biggest problems in our managerial environment is a secular end to the growth of consumption in our economies Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  6. 6. MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  7. 7. MANAGING THE POST-GROWTH ERA Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  8. 8. Intelligence: Then and now  We understand the narrative, we misunderstand the details Narrative: Economic growth, globalization Details (unknown): Individual competitors  We understand (some) details, we misunderstand the narrative Details: competitor behavior that looks similar Narrative: ??? Post-growth? Knowledge economy? Singularity? Yard sales? What? Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  9. 9. INTELLECTUAL ENVIRONMENT  The shock from this economic change has a significant intellectual impact – a Crisis of Authority To whom should we listen, and why? Who can predict accurately – and should we base major decisions on their speculation?  Old problem: paucity of information  New problem: paucity of analysis Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  10. 10. AUTHORITIES AT WORK Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  11. 11. AUTHORITIES AT WORK Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  12. 12. AUTHORITIES AT WORK Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  13. 13. AUTHORITARIAN INTELLIGENCE  The age of authoritarian intelligence was predicated on STABILITY Assumed non-stop growth (except for business cycle recessions) Assumed “best practices” that could be applied across industries and companies of all types  Last Gen intelligence was based on institutional authority One intelligence source with “executive buy-in” Reporting structure made to look like media authorities Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  14. 14. LAST GEN INTELLIGENCE FAILS  They say “nobody could see it coming” because of failure of structure, not of analysis in general  Last Gen analysis fails at several levels Models are built around 1980s competition and 1990s risk (“competitors” and “disruption”) Reporting structures have insufficient authority to drive decision making through “brute force” Bureacracies designed to insulate people from failure, not sensitize them to failure Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  15. 15. NEXT GENERATION ANALYSIS  The next generation of intelligence must drive companies to manage the emergence of opportunities and threats in a complex, dynamic system  Next Gen Analysis will require Post-authoritarian view Peer to peer structure One-size-fits-one Iterative metrics – constant analysis of “is this driving value?” Accountability, not blame Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  16. 16. BROAD THINKING STILL RULES  Threats and opportunities continue to come from disruptions not typically included in Porterian competitive models  GOOD OL’ STEEP: Social: changing consumer values, generational differences Technological: product substitutions (This is still Porter!) Economics: Wealth inequality, wage suppression, systemic breakdown (Europe, Japan, U.S.) Ecological: unpredictable climate scenarios (New York underwater, etc.) Politics: Unrest (Arab Spring), policy shifts (Estonia, Haiti), geopolitical tension (Iran, Pakistan, Central Asia) Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  17. 17. FORGET AUTHORITY, CHERISH THE ANALYST Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  18. 18. TRACK DISRUPTIONS BEYOND THE “NEWS CYCLE” Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  19. 19. DEBATES TRUMP REPORTS WRONG, WRONG BUT MIGHT GET LESS WRONG OVER TIME Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  20. 20. VALUE DRIVEN INTELLIGENCE STRUCTURE Marketing CEO CIO CEO Design Consultants INTEL When you need to add value All the time to a specific project Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  21. 21. Questions, Commentary & Content α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
  22. 22. Eric Garland works with leaders about how to manage big changes to the global economy. He also plays bass. Connect with Eric via: Twitter: @ericgarland Web: http://www.ericgarland.co Web: http://www.transitionistas.com Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/EricGarlandFuture Email: Eric@Ericgarland.co Eric Garland Author, analyst, curmudgeon The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborativehttp://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab

×