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How Technology Intelligence Can Forecast Disruptive Innovations and Fuel Competitive Strategy


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How Technology Intelligence Can Forecast Disruptive Innovations and Fuel Competitive Strategy

  1. 1. How Technology Intelligence Can Forecast Disruptive Innovations and Fuel Competitive Strategy A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 6 March 2013 ~ featuring ~ Clay Phillips Arik Johnson Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  2. 2. Questions, Commentary & Content α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  3. 3. Key Take-Aways  Intelligence can have an important strategic role and impact when an industry is going through fundamental changes  Need to recognizing the difference between the rear-view mirror and the windshield, and that off-road capability may be required  Different tools, skills, and methods are needed to be effective in a disruptive environment  Communicating and getting traction on actionable intelligence with leadership in this environment is tough, but creativity and persistence can pay off Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  4. 4. Topics  Framework  Background  Examples Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  5. 5. Strategy requires understanding externalities, the options they create, and then making choices about priorities and resources, capabilities and capacities needed for a unique competitive advantage Externalities Options Choices Resource Allocation Mega- Trends Opportunities Customer Unique (Offense) Competitive Insights Threats Advantage Competitors’ (Defense) Strategies Capabilities and Capacities Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  6. 6. Trend Network Structure “What customers want” Application: “What is required” • Advanced Design Projects Application: • Global Portfolio Planning Societal • Corporate Policy Trends Lead: Market Research • Engineering Standards Lead: Public Policy Lead: “What we offer” Market Research Applications: Policy Technology Trends Trends • Advanced Technical Global Work Trends • Technology Strategy Network Lead: Engineering “What is expected” “How and where we do Application: business” • Powertrain Portfolio Economic & Energy and Business Application: • Facilities Plan Environment Trends • Strategy Development Lead: Energy Center • Business Plan Lead: Economics Staff Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  7. 7. The Global Auto Industry: What Happens When…  100 years of industry standards and norms become suspect?  Key drivers of market demand become unpredictable?  New technologies, markets, competitors and capital start driving the business?  What used to work…doesn’t?The Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab 7 Powered by
  8. 8. Global megatrends point to significant changes impacting mobility and the auto business Urbanization: majority of population will live in cities Rise of the East: growing influence of China Aging and Living Longer: old but active populations Demographics Youth: tech-savvy and involved Power of Women: growing affluence and influence Modern Family & Home: increasingly non-traditional Connected Life: ubiquitous digital communication Experiences and Authentic & Sustainable: eco-deeds, not words Values Thoughtful Consumption: restraint Luxury: refinement vs. “bling” Creating an Experience: multi-sensory engagement Partners in Design: customer directed personalization Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  9. 9. Specific technology trends concentrate on the impact of electronics, computing and materials Computing Electrification New Materials • Cloud Intelligence • Smart Grid • Stronger and Lighter • Never Delete • Energy Storage • Smart Materials • Big Data • Cutting the Cable • Bio Materials • Anywhere, Any Way Bio-based • Biomimetic Embedded Intelligence (AI) Connected World • Bio-Fuels • Robot Renaissance • Ubiquitous Free Wireless • Genetic Engineering • Sensors & Actuators • Mobile Computing • Behavioral Economics • Semantic Web • Internet of Things Information Fusion Manufacturing 3.0 • Analytics, Decision Sciences • Open Manufacturing • Simulation & Virtual Worlds • 3D Printing • Plant of the Future Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  10. 10. These trends are driving disruptive changes to the auto industry’s 100+ year old “DNA”… Conventional Disruptive Petroleum based fuels Energy diversity Internal combustion engines Electric motors Independent mechanical components Integrated electronic systems Human control, stand-alone Autonomous, smart and connected Stamped steel Bio-based and advanced materials Mass production Mass customization Developed markets Emerging markets Ownership / sales transaction Shared personal mobility High barriers to entry New entrants Capital markets funding Private equity funding Agility is more important than forecasting when an industry is going through disruptive change in multiple areas simultaneously Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  11. 11. …and suggest that personal mobility will become more complex and diverse in the future Affordable Low total cost of mobility (vehicle and fuel cost as well as maintenance, insurance, storage, depreciation, etc) Basic Efficient Low energy use, high utilization, minimal waste Safe Protects occupants and goods in the vehicle and those around it Accessible Personal mobility available to those previously excluded (young, old, poor, mega-urban…); and mobility available to all when and where needed Connected Vehicles in communication with people, other vehicles, other machines, and infrastructure Emerging Intelligent Vehicles anticipates needs and help solve mobility problems Adaptable Reconfigurable / integrated with other transport modes Sustainable Low total lifecycle environmental impact (material supply chain, production, operation, disposal) Enjoyable A pleasing total mobility experience Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  12. 12. Thousand Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: 1980-2011 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 The market for new vehicles has doubled over the past 30 years… 10,000 - 2004 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2008 2010 Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  13. 13. Annual Global New Vehicle Sales: Regional Mix Millions BRIC Developed (N.A. W-EUR, Japan) Rest of the World 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 …but the regional mix has changed substantially…. 15 10 5 - 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  14. 14. Millions Annual U.S. New Vehicles Sales: 1968-2011 20 18 16 14 12 10 …while the US has been volatile, and remains at depressed levels. 8 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  15. 15. The Global Automotive “Gameboard” 51.2% 50.4% 6% 77% 41% JAPAN EUROPE DAIMLER AG 89.3% 51.4% 44% 5.9% 100% 16.7% Freightliner 7% Nissan Motor GAZ Light Trucks Co. 3.5% 15% 100% 100% RVI / Mack 85% Volvo Truck 100% 3% 19.9% Geely 3% 44.4% 15% 100% 100% BYD Chery 100% 54.2% Great Wall 70% 99.3% 80.1% 25% 100% 100% INDIA Proton CHINA / SE ASIA 75% 89.2% MAN Scania 17.4% 45.5% Last update: January 2013 65% 100% 93.4% OEMs in outer ring have ≥5% global market share italics = voting stock Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  16. 16. Intelligence skills and methods need to be different in a disruptive environment… Conventional Disruptive Experts Connectors Trends Discontinuities Forecasts Scenarios Benchmarking Anticipation Reports Events Recommendations Options & Implications Analysis, analysis, analysis Insights Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  17. 17. …need to work more on the blind-spots and “predictable surprises” rather than answering questions Known Unknown Known I know what I know I know what I don’t know CONFIRMATION QUESTIONS I don’t know Unknown I don’t know what I know what I don’t know BAD MEMORY BLIND-SPOTS Opportunities & Threats Options Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  18. 18. Traditional intelligence scanning processes form a baseline and may be enough for a stable environment Leadership Direction •Strategic Intent •Priorities Field Input •Focus Issues • Local Operations • Government Forecasts Budget & Officials Annual Business • Institutes Conference Scenarios Plan • Dealers • Consultants Staff Analysis • Market & Economic Data • Competitor & Technology Intelligence • Global Trends & Issues Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  19. 19. Emerging & disruptive forces scanning and assessment tools are valuable in times of higher uncertainty; events are more impactful than processes Strategic Intelligence Futures Scans • Industry Dynamics & • Abstracts Gameboard Scheming • Workshops Strategy Disruptive Forces Analysis Young “Turks” • Christensen model applied • Technology Advanced Work to key topics demos M&A / Alliances Interest Groups Symposia Contingencies • Self-forming •Peripheral researcher •Cross-functional workgroups •External participants Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  20. 20. Auto Industry Examples  Urban mobility  Enterprise risk management  Connectivity  Autonomous Vehicles  Ultra low cost transportation  Mobile cyber-security  China Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  21. 21. Case example: Urban Mobility  Dense urbanization in developed and emerging markets could lead to new models of personal mobility  Restrictions on vehicle use in city centers to manage congestion and emissions is becoming more prevalent  The normally positive correlation between income level and vehicle density tends to break down as population density increases, effective public transportation systems become available and regulations / taxes deter personal vehicle usage  The technologies, designs, and business models of urban mobility in dense mega-cities of the future could be unfamiliar to conventional automotive OEMs Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  22. 22. The Emergence of Megacities 19 1 11 20 17 3 6 15 12 14 72 16 18 5 8 9 4 13 10 • Megacities are engines of growth, rising personal income • Megacities produce mega-problems, such as traffic. Mobility in every megacity is unique Source: United Nations (2002) Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  23. 23. Developing cities are the most densely populated Manhattan Source: Alain Population density (people/hectare) Bertaud (2002) 100,000/sq.mile Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  24. 24. Urban Mobility: GM EN-V Concept  Personal urban mobility “Electric Networked Vehicles”  2-person capacity with small storage space for everyday commute usage  They can be manually driven or incorporated into autonomous driving infrastructures  They can be personally owned or integrated into a multi-modal transportation system  Designed for city center usage and speeds  Efficient, clean, affordable transportation  Door-to-door and 1st-mile/Last-mile solution Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  25. 25. Case example: Enterprise Risk Management Conventional Disruptive Audits Assistance Templates Iteration Surveys Workshops Risk Avoidance Risk Management Mitigation Contingencies Check lists Stress tests Threats Opportunities Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab
  26. 26. Clay Phillips is Director, R&D Technology and Business Support at General Motors. Connect with Clay via: Web: Email: Clay Phillips General Motors The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at or learn more about Aurora at – see you next time! Powered byThe Intelligence Collaborative #IntelCollab